1、2011 CPG/FMCG Trends,2,2011 Mintel CPG Predictions,Every year, we develop a list of predictions for the coming yearBased on input from more than 40 Mintel employees, from every one of our offices (Chicago, London, Sydney, Shanghai, Tokyo)Finalized by our leading global consultants in Chicago, London
2、, and SydneyPredictions are global in scope, and may differ somewhat from one part of the world to another,Objective:Offer our insight and ideas as to whats ahead for CPG products in the year to come,3,Todays agenda,A brief look: 2011 Consumer predictionsCPG predictions: The listFirst, a brief look
3、at new product activityA dozen CPG predictions, one by oneWhats next,Intent:Share our expert knowledge on trends that will impact your business,Women will continueto redefine gender rolesas well as lifestages,4,2011 Mintel Consumer Trends,Consumers will take a“prepare for the worst”stance towardsbud
4、geting,QR codes will provideconsumers withalternative channelsfor information andexperience,An ageing society willmean new challengesand opportunities forthe workplace,Traditional universitieswill no longer be theonly venue foreducation,Brands will need todecide whether tocounter or cater to theissu
5、e of obesity,How does your(urban) garden grow? More city dwellers will get a green thumb,Automation will find machines replacing people in new and unexpected ways,Retailers will need to get more creative than cutting prices in order to lure consumers in store,Prepare for the Worst,Where its App,On H
6、er Own Terms,No Degree, No Problem,The Big Issue,Retired for Hire,Who needs humans?,Retail Rebirth,Garden State,Global 2011 CPG predictions: The list,5,WellnessQuiet reductionRedefining “natural”Personal hygiene comes out of the closet,ConvenienceProfessionalisation of the amateurLess is more redux,
7、IndulgenceEcono-chicInstant results,Environment Sustainable stays focused on the basics,DemographicsSimplicity for older consumers,Marketing and mediaBlurring categoriesNew retroMore cradle-to-grace initiatives,Global new product introductions,Global introductions driven by Food and BeautyTotal intr
8、oductions annually top 250,000New product introductions, global, by supercategory,6,Source: Mintel GNPD,7,A closer look at food and drink,Europe accounts for the greatest percentage of product introductions in all food and drinkNorth Americas contribution to the global total continues to shrinkFood
9、& drink introductions, global, by region,Source: Mintel GNPD,12%,20%,27%,4%,37%,8,Food and drink, selected claims,Claims that focus on inherent goodness dominate new product offeringsMost claim groups increase, with declines seen by Minus and Plus groupsFood & drink introductions, global, by selecte
10、d claim category,Source: Mintel GNPD,9,A closer look at non-food,Non-food is more of a mixed bag in terms of introductions, with more declines over time compared to food and drinkEurope also commands the greatest percentage of introductionsNon-food introductions, global, by region,Source: Mintel GNP
11、D,10%,23%,24%,3%,40%,10,Non-food, selected claims,Claim activity has been quite steady in last two yearsNote stagnation of NaturalNon-food introductions, global, by selected claim groups,Source: Mintel GNPD,11,Prediction One: Quiet reduction,What it is:Several key ingredientssodium, sugar, and high
12、fructose corn syruphave been experiencing covert reductions in product formulationsWhy its important:Over time, we may see some shifts from covert to overt, depending on the ingredient, depending on the region of the world,Of US consumersbelieve that HFCSin beveragespromotesobesity,Source: Mintel Ox
13、ygen,Brands will need to decide whether to counter or cater to the issueof obesity,Consumer Trends Tie-in,12,Prediction One: Quiet Reduction,What we see in the market:HFCS reduction most important in North AmericaNew product introductions, global,with HFCS, by region,Yoplaits SimplyGo-Gurt yogurt in
14、 a tube, USA, with “no high fructose corn syrup” on front of packSales of $7M in first 33 weeks, outperforming the category average; priced at parity withregular Go-Gurt,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Prediction One: Quiet Reduction,Positives and negatives of sodium reduction:Reduced sodium levels essenti
15、al for good health and disease preventionConsumers balk at the compromised tasteResult: Companies reduce, but dont communicateConsumer attitudes to salt,Whats ahead?Sodium levels will continue to drop, but likely that few products will be labeled as “reduced sodium”,13,Source: TGI Europa/Mintel,14,P
16、rediction Two: Redefining “Natural”,What it is:“All natural” continues to be ill-defined and under fire, leading toa “natural shakedown”Why its important:Focus likely to shift to greater accentuation of the positives,rather than the negatives“No additives” becoming the norm in many countries,with pe
17、rcentages much higher in some countries rather than othersNew product introductions with no additives/preservatives claims, global,Source: Mintel GNPD,Consumer predictions Brands will need todecide whether tocounter or cater to theissue of obesity,Prediction Two: Redefining “Natural”,All natural ice
18、 cream made from just five ingredients, listed front of packOriginal seven varieties have sold over $28M since launchSales of the top 3 out-perform the benchmark for all Hagen-Dazs ice cream introductions in the same period,15,Hagen-Dazs Five, USA, launched spring 2009,Quad Weeks,Source: Mintel GNPD
19、 IRIS,Prediction Two: Redefining “Natural”,16,PepsiCos Pepsi Natural all natural cola, USA, made with sparkling water, sugar and kola nut extract,A cautionary tale: Are all categories right for natural positioning?Sales of Pepsi Natural have slid; product has been discontinuedPossible reasons:“Natur
20、al” consumers may not be soda drinkersThey also may not choose leading national brandsBeware price premiumsPepsi Natural: 9.56 per oz. compared to Regular Pepsi at 2.38,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Mintel estimate of compound annual growth rate for incontinence products in the US,2009-2013,17,Prediction
21、 Three: Personal Hygiene Comes Out of the Closet,What it is:For personal care products, discretion is out, honesty is inWhy its important:Look for more open discussion of formerly taboo subjects, leading to greater and more unique product developmentTransparency will be the basis for future marketin
22、g,Source: Mintel GMN,Women will continue to redefine gender roles aswell as life stages,Consumer Trends Tie-in,18,What we see in the marketProducts not limited to ageing women, but for women of all ages,Johnson & Johnsons K-Y Yours + Mine lubricant,Schick Quattro TrimStyle razor and trimmer for wome
23、n,Poise pads advertising in US, featuring Whoopi Goldberg,Prediction Three: Personal Hygiene Comes Out of the Closet,Of UK consumers say they have cut back on how often they eat out and/or how much they spend,19,Prediction Four: Professionalization of the Amateur,What it is:CPG products continue to
24、bring into the home what used to require a specialist, across all categoriesWhy its important:Consumers can have a greater sense of control, including over how (and if) they spend money on services outside the homeSignals a greater focus for more products that help consumerscook more, and better, at
25、 home,Consumers will take a “prepare for the worst” stance toward budgeting,Consumer Trends Tie-in,20,What we see in the market:Products that help consumers create meals quickly, easily, and with better results,McCormicks Recipe Inspirations seasonings, USA,PepsiCos Gatorade G Series Pro products, U
26、SA,Heros Cocina Creativa line (creative cooking), Spain, intended to help consumers give dishes a creative touch,Prediction Four: Professionalization of the Amateur,21,What we see in the market:Nonfood products that bring expert experience and knowledge to a mainstream consumer,Unilevers Seda shampo
27、o and conditioner, Brazil,co-designed by seven hair experts,Colgate-Palmolives Ajax Professional Grease & Stain cleaner, France,Prediction Four: Professionalization of the Amateur,Of UK consumers feel retailers and manufacturers should be charged for excessive packaging,22,Prediction Five: Less is M
28、ore Redux,What it is:Less is more thinking linked increasingly to convenience and economical solutions, with the environment taking a secondary roleWhy its important:This trend can possibly signal a revival of previously “tired” categories, such as dehydrated soupWhile stickpack drink mixes are well
29、 developed, the concept can expand into additional categories,23,What we see in the market:Concentrates, simplified forms appearing in many categories,Bottle Greens Squeezy Squash, UK, triple strength beverage concentrates,Starbucks Via instant coffee, USA, in an iced variety,Unilevers Knorr Gourmet
30、 Moments upscale dehydrated soup, France,Prediction Five: Less is More Redux,Pot Noodle convenient mug pack targeted at office workersNearly 300,000 sales since launch, 6,600 average weekly sales on a RRP of 49p,24,Unilever Pot Noodle In a Mug, UK,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Prediction Five: Less is Mo
31、re Redux,25,Prediction Six: Econo-chic,What it is:Luxury is making a comeback, but in a more limited wayWhy its important:Occasional splurges by consumers provide opportunity for CPG products positioned as “small treats”,Of UK consumers buy value AND premium private label products,Consumers will tak
32、e a “prepare for the worst” stance toward budgeting,Consumer Trends Tie-in,26,What we see in the market:Simple products, with simple “elevated” benefits,Mars Twix candy bar, France, in a limited edition metal tin 9-pack,Method Products Ultra Concentrated Dish Soap, USA, in a Pink Grapefruit scent,Pr
33、ediction Six: Econo-chic,27,Prediction Seven: Instant Results,What it is:Products that provide a benefit, instantlyWhy its important:Results-driven products answer the need by consumers for products that performWhile currently seen mainly in personal care products, it also can expand to food and dri
34、nk,28,What we see in the market:Skincare mainly, at a variety of price points,Cliniques Anti-Blemish Solutions, Liquid Makeup, global,LOreals Collagen Micro-PulseEye Correction System,Prediction Seven: Instant Results,29,Prediction Eight: Sustainability Stays Focused on the Basics,What it is:Reduce,
35、 reuse, recycle continues as the environmental mantra, as products continue to build on current initiativesWhy its important:Focus on the basics while consumers balance environmental concerns with budgetary constraintsRemember the hidden parenthetical statement: consumers will engage in green living
36、if it does not cost any more,29,Of UK consumers say they would buy more environmentally friendly products if it saved them money,How does your (urban) garden grow? City dwellers get a green thumb,Consumer Trends Tie-in,30,What we see in the market:Concepts borrowed from other countries or categories
37、Simple ideas, easy for consumers to adopt,PepsiCos Quaker Chewy Granola Bars, USA, in a Rip n Go boxless container, similar to those seen in Asia,Dolphin Water, Netherlands, in a stand-up drip-free pouch,Prediction Eight: Sustainability Stays Focused on the Basics,31,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for
38、Older Consumers,What it is:Products focus more on simple, realistic results rather than hype or lofty promisesWhy its important:Older consumers, especially Baby Boomers, continue to look for products tailored to their needsIn Europe and North America, over one third of the population is aged 45+ yea
39、rs,An ageing society will mean new challenges for the workforce,Consumer Trends Tie-in,As consumers age, they no longer believe the hype that personal care products offerOpportunity to offer simple, proven solutions instead,32,US consumer attitudes regarding looking younger,Prediction Nine: Simplici
40、ty for Older Consumers,Source: Mintel Oxygen,33,What we see in the market:More realistic role modelsProducts with benefits, at mass market prices,LOreals Visible Lift anti-ageing foundation, USA,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for Older Consumers,34,What we see on the market:The beginnings of food and b
41、everage products just for them, with simple, clear benefits,Nestl Nutrition Resource Senior Activ, Switzerland, a nutritional supplement for older adults to aid in improving nutritional status, regaining strength and energy after illness or surgery, and supporting physical strength and cognitive hea
42、lth,Prediction Nine: Simplicity for Older Consumers,35,Prediction Ten: Blurring Categories,What it is:More and more, CPG products cannot be easily slotted in to one category or another, causing confusionand opportunityWhy its important:Focus shifts from labels and branding to benefitsConcept is a bi
43、t more advanced in less-developed countries, where the focus is on value and convenience,Of US consumers use multipurpose facial skincare products,Source: Mintel Oxygen,36,What we see in the market:Simple solutions at a variety of price points,Dr Pepper Snapple Groups Sunkist Solar Fusion, USA, a ca
44、rbonated fruit-flavored drink with caffeine,LOreals Perfect Clean Foaming Gel, global, with an integrated “scrublet”,Prediction Ten: Blurring Categories,37,Prediction Eleven: New Retro,What it is:Big brands continue to revitalize old products and old ad campaignsWhy its important:“Retro” means somet
45、hing different to each age group, providing significant opportunities for many brands,Of US consumers say they would like to see more “old-fashioned” choices on restaurant menus,Source: Mintel Oxygen,38,What we see in the marketUnilever created ads to air during the US TV show Mad Men that looked li
46、ke part of the show(set in the 1960s), for brands the company sold at that timeand they worked,Prediction Eleven: New Retro,A product that worked: Pepsi Throwback, USTrades on Boomers search for nostalgiaBut also addresses a current consumer concernmade to the old formula, which included sugar and n
47、ot HFCSSimple idea: an existing formula, existing pack design, existing distribution and salesPayoff: Pepsi Throwback achieved about $41M in sales in just over a year on the market,39,Pepsi Throwback, part of line of limited edition CSDs,Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS,Prediction Eleven: New Retro,Nestls M
48、oa Condensed Milk has been on the market for almost 100 years and is a well-known brand in BrazilIn December 2009, the company launched two retro-inspired cans that used the same design as seen in 1946 and 1957,40,Modern design,Historical design,Prediction Eleven: New Retro,41,Prediction Twelve: Mor
49、e Cradle-to-Grave Brand Initiatives,What it is:Products will stretch their brand values and their target market up and down the age spectrumWhy its important:Expansion of positioning, variety, and package formats across regions and categoriesBut take care: it does not always work (e.g. Capri Sun Island Refreshers),
