1、 Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary HNB92%HNBHNB2019 HNBHNBHNBHNBHNB35 AB HNBC HNB DD C HNBABHNBTable_CompanyFinance EPS PE 2016A 2017E 2018E 2016A 2017E 2018E 45.52 2.59 2.12 2.56 17.58 21.47 17.78 17.71 0.47 0.60 0.72 37.68 29.52 24.60 8.56 0.38 0.46 0.59 22.53 18.61 14.51 126.72 3.47 2.75
2、 3.92 36.52 46.08 32.33 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote -40%-30%-20%-10%0%2018/12018/22018/32018/42018/52018/62018/72018/82018/92018/102018/112018/12Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M 5.47% 3.22% -37.25% -0.28% 2.90% -9.92% Table_IndustryMarket 273 26045 17532 20.12 2.10 17729 871 % 53.79 Table_Report 2018-12-03 2
3、018-08-03 1420% 2018-07-09 2018-06-20 Table_Author S0550515110003 0755-33975863 S0550118040029 17820390636 wang_ / 2019-01-29 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 2 / 42Table_PageTop 1. . 6 1.1 .6 1.2 .7 1.2.1 . 7 1.
4、2.2 7 1.3 .9 1.4 .10 1.5 . 11 1.5.1 11 1.5.2 15 1.6 .17 2. . 18 2.1 .18 2.2 .19 2.3 .22 2.3.1 PMAT 22 2.3.2 22 2.4 .23 3. HNB . 23 3.1 HNB .23 3.2 HNB 24 3.3 2019 HNB 25 4. . 26 4.1 HNB .26 4.2 HNB 28 4.2.1 . 28 4.2.2 . 30 4.3 .33 4.4 .33 4.4.1 . 33 4.4.2 . 36 4.5 .37 5. 38 5.1 002191.SZ .38 5.2 002
5、925.SZ .38 5.3 834742.OC 39 3 / 42Table_PageTop 5.4 300014.SZ .39 5.5 mysmok .39 5.6 .40 4 / 42Table_PageTop 1 6 2 7 3 7 4 . 8 5 8 6 2017 8 7 2017 9 8 10 9 .11 10 . 12 11 12 12 13 13 2014 13 14 2014 . 13 15 2016 14 16 2016 14 17 15 18 2000-2017 16 19 17 20 18 21 . 19 22 JUUL . 20 23 JUUL . 20 24 YOY
6、 20 25 Vaporesso . 20 26 SMOK . 21 27 . 21 28 21 29 2018 . 22 30 2013-2017 . 23 31 IQOS 24 32 IQOS 24 33 IQOS . 25 34 26 35 26 36 2017 . 26 37 2016 26 38 IQOS 27 39 . 27 40 . 27 41 IQOS . 27 42 IQOS 28 43 IQOS . 28 5 / 42Table_PageTop 44 . 33 45 33 46 34 47 . 34 48 34 49 34 50 35 51 . 35 52 35 53 .
7、35 54 iSMOD I . 36 55 iSMOD II 36 56 - . 37 57 . 37 1 2017 10 2 16 3 30 4 . 30 5 . 31 6 . 32 6 / 42Table_PageTop 1. 1.1 1492149615351556 1558 15591565 15711716171606-161015751590 17181 1817991800 1801-18141918671887 2501920 7 / 42Table_PageTop 1.2 1.2.1 2005-2013 2013750 2016 650 2 - 8 %- 6 %- 4 %-
8、2 %0%2%4%6%8%01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 02 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6FAOSTAT 2014-20172017239.14 7.1%3 0501 0 01 5 02 0 02 53 0 02 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 71.2.2 52013-2017 ( )2017 ( ) 6200 1.96% 51%2% 3.1 3%8 / 42Ta
9、ble_PageTop ( ) 4700 2% 52017 4738 39 5 20132014 2014 5099 2015 52015 2016 2017 “ ”4 5 72466901651563246200- 4 . 7 6 %- 5 . 5 9 %- 2 . 9 3 %- 1 . 9 6 %- 7 %- 6 %- 5 %- 4 %- 3 %- 2 %- 1 %0%1%2%5 6 0 05 8 0 06 0 0 06 2 0 06 4 0 06 6 0 06 8 0 07 0 0 07 2 0 07 4 0 02 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1
10、74 9 9 3 . 9 75 0 9 9 . 1 44 9 7 9 . 0 44 6 9 9 . 24 7 3 7 . 7 71 . 1 9 %2 . 1 1 %- 2 . 3 6 %- 5 . 6 2 %0 . 8 2 %- 1 1 %- 9 %- 7 %- 5 %- 3 %- 1 %1%3%5%4 4 0 04 5 0 04 6 0 04 7 0 04 8 0 04 9 0 05 0 0 05 1 0 05 2 0 02 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 72017984 1.9% 615 2.6%5207.2% 5200 9.1%20162%6 2
11、017 4738984615 520510343212 188 178 164 160 154 150 141 140 13490 98 91 90 89 83 72- 1 0 %- 8 %- 6 %- 4 %- 2 %0%2%4%6%8%1 0 %05 0 01 0 0 01 5 0 02 0 0 02 5 0 03 0 0 03 5 0 04 0 0 04 5 0 05 0 0 0HNB 20209 / 42Table_PageTop HNB 2017 43%PMI BATJT IT9% 5% 7 2017 43%15%12%9%5%2%1% 13%1.3 1615731620171982
12、 1 1198319841991 19971998 1998 94200320042008 410 / 42Table_PageTop 8 1.4 2017201811556.2 3.69% 10000.8 3.37%7877 4.88% 5505.4 4.1 1 2017 1123 1012 570 500 414 350 275 2014 254 250 2015 228 183 175 2016 144 133 127 2014 124 2016 124 11 / 42Table_PageTop 1.5 1.5.1 A 89% 87%9 WHO 12 / 42Table_PageTop
13、186 2011%166 56186 30% 5027% 60 32% 810 11 56 , 3 0%50, 27 %60 , 3 2%20, 1 1%2 2111 4276393327953241315103150102030405060WHO WHO B 1610.2% 10% 3810% 15% 65 15% 20% 55 20% 25%3 22C D 24.1% 22.5%20.6% 28.6% 28.0% 27.0%35.0% 33.3% 29.6%30.0% 26.5% 25.0%25.0% 34.0% WTO World Health Organization “WHO” 20
14、14 WHO70% 2015104 13 / 42Table_PageTop 12 9 9 . 81 0 0 . 71 0 0 . 3 1 0 0 . 21 0 0 . 91 0 0 . 5 1 0 0 . 4 1 0 0 . 5 1 0 0 . 4 1 0 0 . 5 1 0 0 . 51 0 0 . 21049798991 0 01 0 11 0 21 0 31 0 41 0 52 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 540%7
15、0%13 2014 WHO 8611 80% 14 2014 8 1 . 3 %8 1 . 6 %8 1 . 6 %8 1 . 7 %8 1 . 7 %8 2 . 2 %8 2 . 6 %8 4 . 0 %8 4 . 6 %8 5 . 0 %8 6 . 0 %U n i t e d K i n g d o mC h i l eG r e e c eEst o n i aF i n l a n dTu r k e yP o l a n dB u l g a r i aS l o v a k i aI s r a e lB o s n i a a n d H e r z e g o v i n a
16、WHO 201714 / 42Table_PageTop 56.2%37.2% 54.6% 65.1%7.1949 4.68 65.1% 4.32.35 54.6% 37.2%15 2016 WHO 80%50% 76% 26%75%77% 50%16 2016 WHO 15 / 42Table_PageTop 1.5.2 2015 55% 11% 0.005 /58.3 / 70 /36.98 52.8% 17 , 3 3 . 0 2 , 4 7 . 2 %, 1 6 . 8 , 2 4 . 0 %, 9 . 6 6 , 1 3 . 8 %, 6 . 4 2 , 9 . 2 %, 3 . 9
17、 6 , 5 . 7 %, 0 . 1 4 , 0 . 2 %10.6 / 200 2 16% 325% 420% 5 57%10% 25% 67% 7 5%3% 2% 82007 1325% 20%15% 10%7 4 2007 10% 2014 25% 16 / 42Table_PageTop 2 / 1 ( 70 /) 56% 0.003 / / ( 70 /) 36% 0.003 / / 11% 0.005 / 36% 30% 2 16% 3 25% 4 20% 5 10% 25% “ ” “” 57% 25% “” “ ” 57% 6 7% 7 5% 8 25% 7%20002017
18、 2006 WHO20152017 11145.1 349.323.24% 2017 14349.7665%60% 18 2000-2017 - 2 0 %- 1 0 %0%1 0 %2 0 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %02 0 0 04 0 0 06 0 0 08 0 0 01 0 0 0 01 2 0 0 01 4 0 0 0Wind 17 / 42Table_PageTop 1.6 WHOHNBHNBHNBHNB19 12 HNB PMI95%HNB3 HNBHNBHNB HNB18 / 42Table_PageTop HNBHNB2. 2.1 Herbert A. Gilbert
19、196319672000200420 19 / 42Table_PageTop 21 2.2 JUUL JUUL PAX Labs 2015 6 20177 JUUL PAX Labs JUULU“ ”Nielsen JUUL 201713.6% 2018 75%2018 12 20 Marlboro Altria Group Inc128 JUUL Labs Inc 35%JUUL 380 2018 7 160JUUL JUULJUUL 2017 2.45 2018 9.42018 7 11 20 / 42Table_PageTop 22 JUUL 23 JUUL (E-cigarette)
20、 APV(Advanced Personal Vaporizer)ODMAPVAPV Vaporesso201821 24 YOY 25 Vaporesso 3 3 8 0 . 0 0 %5 4 . 6 0 %9 . 2 9 %1 4 6 . 9 4 % 1 1 5 . 7 0 % 1 2 2 . 1 0 %0%8 0 0 %1 6 0 0 %2 4 0 0 %3 2 0 0 %4 0 0 0 %0 . 0 05 . 0 01 0 . 0 01 5 . 0 02 0 . 0 02 5 . 0 02 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2
21、0 1 8 Q 3SMOK SMOK8 21 / 42Table_PageTop 26 SMOK 27 2018 1 2018 6 3800IDG RELXRELAX“ ” 20182016PCT28 22 / 42Table_PageTop 2.3 2.3.1 PMAT 201811 3078% 300FDA FDA29 2018 85%69%49%43%22%0%1 0 %2 0 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %8 0 %9 0 %18 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 6 5Statista FDA PMATPMAT Pre-Market To
22、bacco Application2018 8 PMATPMAT FDA 20 400100 500PMTA2018 10 vaporFDA vaporvapor 2.3.2 JUUL23 / 42Table_PageTop 30 2013-2017 0%2 0 %4 0 %6 0 %8 0 %1 0 0 %1 2 0 %1 4 0 %1 6 0 %2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7Euromonitor 2.4 3. HNB 3.1 HNB HNB1988Premier Eclipse2014Philip Morris International
23、PMIIQOS 28IQOS Glo Ploom KT&G LIL24 / 42Table_PageTop 31 IQOS PMI HNBIQOS600350PMI IQOS93% 8 92% 1892% 7 94% IQOS32 IQOS 3.2 HNB HNBHNB 20152016 HNB2017 HNB 4725 / 42Table_PageTop IQOS 2018IQOS 16%2018 2018 30%HNB 33 IQOS 7%9%10%11%16%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q13.3 20
24、19 HNB HNBHNB HNBPMI HNBPMIIQOS 2019 NixxPulze 2019 1 Vype iSwitchIQOS 20192019 HNB 2019 HNB1 HNBHNBHNB 92%2IQOSIQOS HNBHNB 26 / 42Table_PageTop 4. 4.1 HNB 2005 5170 86%502017 17138.7% 51 135.5%120 18.5% 94.5%6.7 5.5%34 35 0204060801 0 01 2 01 4 01 6 01 8 02 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0
25、 1 70%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0123456782012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201760% 70%36 2017 37 2016 28%24%7%38%3%43%13%7%6%6%1%24%27 / 42Table_PageTop IQOS2014 201711.6%1.5% 2014 11 IQOS 20152017RRP 36.4 12.7%32.7% 2 50 32.4% 38 IQOS 39 0%5%1 0 %1 5 %2 0 %2 5 %3 0 %3 5 %2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 733%
26、9%3%3%2%50%J U U LIQOSHNB HNB 2014 IQOS HNB Ploom Glo Revo2017 12LIL LIL 40 41 IQOS 0 . 0 %0 . 5 %1 . 0 %1 . 5 %2 . 0 %2 . 5 %3 . 0 %3 . 5 %4 . 0 %2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7I Q O S P l o o m3 . 5 %0 . 1 %0 . 4 %0 . 1 %4 . 9 %0 . 3 %0 . 7 %0 . 2 %7 . 1 %0 . 5 %0 . 9 %0 . 4 %0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%1 6 Q 3 1 6
27、 Q 4 1 7 Q 1IQOSHNBHNB28 / 42Table_PageTop IQOS4.2 HNB 4.2.1 201770%1 HNB 32 46 8.1180 156 Marlboro 201735% 9.7% 2016 0.1% 2017540.73 4.2%2017 72.45 2016 4.92017 4.5%400202530% IQOS2008 400 30IQOSIQOS IQOS92%IQOS 42 IQOS 43 IQOS IQOS IQOSIQOS29 / 42Table_PageTop IQOS2 PMI HNB 2017 5.5 2016 5200 42 4
28、5 200 20055 20172012 25 201810 12.7 2022 4 502017 57.8% 100%HNB Glo 3 2017 5.8 3731 5 4 1127 2016 11 2017 9 20166 2017 288.6 3.5% 61.3% 20160.2% 2017 797 0.1%81% 185.8 8.7%60% 2017 6 Ploom TECH 9 Mighty 1011 30%70%4 HNB 2016 2 ITG Tabacalera (Fontem Ventures)Logista 2017 3.382016 1000 Blu16063% 21 2004
