1、 Positive Impact of Industrial Robots on Employment February 2013 Metra Martech Positive Impact of Industrial Robots on Employment Updated in January 2013 to take account of more recent data Metra Martech Blank page Peter Gorle CEng FIMechE and Andrew Clive MA Econ (Cantab) Updated 15 thJanuary 2013
2、 METRA MARTECH Limited Telephone: +44(0)208 742 7888 7 Chiswick High Road email:peter.gorlemetra- London W4 2ND http:/www.metra- Metra Martech 7319 2011/2013 Page 1. SUMMARY 1 1.1 Overall rise in employment 1 1.2 Changes since the 2011 study 3 1.3 Employment directly due to the use of robotics 5 1.4
3、 Employment indirectly due to the use of robotics 6 1.5 Potential for new job creation up to 2016 9 2 INTRODUCTION 11 3 THE ECONOMIC FACTORS 13 3.1 Displacement and re-employment 13 3.2 Globalisation of the market 15 3.3 Increasing speed of technology development 15 3.4 Age and skills profiles 16 3.
4、5 Wage costs and the availability of low cost labour 19 3.6 Health, safety and environment 21 4. NOTES ON THE SECTORS AS ROBOT USERS 23 4.1 The robotics industry itself 23 4.2 Need for precision and consistency 23 4.3 Health and Safety may cause change to robots 25 4.4 Making or maintaining manufact
5、uring viability 28 5 HOW MUCH EMPLOYMENT IS DEPENDENT ON ROBOTICS 29 5.1 Background 29 5.2 Precision and consistency 29 5.3 Unsatisfactory working conditions 35 5.4 Protection of local industry 39 6. THE POSITION OF SME 43 6.1 Profile of SME 43 6.2 SME and use of robots 44 7 EXPECTATIONS UP TO 2016
6、47 7.1 Economic factors 47 7.2 Growth per sector 49 7.3 Change factors 51 7.4 New growth sectors 52 7.5 Food and drink 52 7.6 Renewable energy 55 7.7 Electrical storage media and electric vehicles 59 7.8 Growth of service robots 62 Notes on definitions 64 Metra Martech Rate of unemployment trend vs
7、Numbers of robots in use. = UNEMPLOYMENT % = Number of robots *Note the different left hand scale for Brazil and Japan 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Brazil* 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,
8、00% 0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Japan* 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 China 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12
9、,00% 14,00% 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Rep of Korea 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Germany 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,
10、00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 USA1 Positive Impact of Industrial Robots on Employment Metra Martech 1. SUMMARY 1.1 Overall rise in employment Overall paid employment has risen in most countries. In the six cons
11、idered here, only Japan has seen a decline. This is driven by increasing participation of women, and increases in population, including immigration in some cases. It is also caused by the increasing demand for services, and the creation of completely new products and markets, often related to the ap
12、plication of electronics to communication. The statistics mainly show reduction in employment in manufacturing in the developed countries, often a small reduction. It coincides with an increase in output and an increase in robotics use, except in the case of Japan. The extra number that have gained
13、employment in the years 2000 to 2011 is far greater than the small numbers losing their jobs in manufacturing. The new jobs have been in: 1) distribution and services. Some of the distribution jobs are the result of manufacturers outsourcing their distribution. In the past these jobs would have been
14、 classified as part of manufacturing. 2) and also in new manufacturing applications, particularly using technology advances to create new consumer products phones, computers, games etc. In the industrialising countries, as could be expected, there has been a sharp rise in employment in manufacturing
15、, as well as increase in output. Productivity increases are not just caused by automation and robotics, but it is one of three main factors, along with increased size of manufacturing plants and the globalisation of sourcing. Note: while the IFR numbers provide a clear basis from which to work, it h
16、as not always been possible to separate robotics from automation in our analyses. Individual countries differ greatly, manufacturing accounts for only 11% of employment in USAbut 24% in Germany and it is as high as 27% in more recently industrialising countries such as The Republic of Korea. The lev
17、el of robotics use has almost always doubled in all of the six countries except Japan in the eleven years covered by the study. The proportion of the workforce that is unemployed has generally reduced except in the USA. The most recent figures show the short term effect of the economic crisis, and t
18、he apparent resumption of the general trend. see charts opposite and table overleaf.2 Metra Martech Six country comparison Change in populati on 2000 to 2012 Increase in total employ- ment in the 11 yrs millions Unemployment % Actual employment in manufacturing millions Annual rate of increase of in
19、dustrial production % Robots per 10,000 employed in Manufacturing IFR Year # % 2000 2008 2011 2000 2008 2010 2011 +- 2000 2008 2011 2000 2008 2011 2008 to 2011 Brazil +16.5% 27 45% 13% 6.8% 5.3 7.7 9.7 9.9 10.2* +2.5 5.7 4.9 0.3 1 5 7 40% China +6.3% 60 18% 4.2 % 4.3% 4.1 25 80* 34 104* 35.2 37e +10
20、 +24* 11.0 13.4 13.9 1 10 21 210% Germany = 2.1 5% 6.9 % 7.2% 6.0 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.0 -0.2 6.6 5.2 8 146 236 261 11% Japan = -2.0 -3.0% 4.7 % 4.0% 4.2 11.8 10.3 9.3 9.1 -2.0 5.8 1.3 -3.5 337 344 339 -1% Korea Rep +4.2% 3.2 15% 4.4 % 3.4% 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 = 8.5 5.1 3.8 107 221 347 57% USA +12% 6.0 4.0
21、% 4.0 % 5.8% 8.9 16.4 13.4 11.5 11.7 -4.7 5.6 -1.7 4.1 52 96 135 41% Source: National Statistics, Laborstatup to 2008, IMF and IFR *Other sources suggest that the Chinese manufacturing industry may employ 100 million or more. *CEPR July 2011 3 Metra Martech 1.2 Changes since the 2011 study Because t
22、he effects of the recession were hard to judge even in 2011, the base data in the original study was taken as 2008. The update has focused on new employment resulting from robotics. The estimates show: New jobs due to Robotics Total Up to and including 2008 8 to 10 million 2008 to 2011 500,000 to 75
23、0,000 2012 to 2016 900,000 to 1.5 million 2017 to 2020 1 to 2 million Metra Martech The update material also allows several important observations: That Chinese growth has not been stopped, but it has been restricted and this situation is likely to remain for several years. This reduces world growth
24、 by several percent. The three driving forces for using robotics, whether or not they generate new jobs, which will be mentioned again later, are: I Where the product cannot be made to satisfactory precision, consistency and cost, without Robotics. This factor is expected to continue to grow in impo
25、rtance as technology advances. II Where the conditions under which the current work is done are unsatisfactory may be illegal in the developed countries, but where a robot will operate. The recession has reduced attention on this factor. III Where particularly a developed country manufacturing unit
26、with high labour costs is threatened by a unit in a low labour cost area. This is a critical factor in the re-balancing of the world manufacturing economies. China for example, is increasingly facing low cost competition and as Chinese employment costs rise, we can expect more use of robotics to mai
27、ntain competitiveness. Korea has greatly increased its robot density over the past three years. 4 Metra Martech Despite the rapid increase in the use of robots, USA has proportionately half the number of robots used by Germany. Germany itself partly because of a different industry mix is third, behi
28、nd Japan and Korea. Two of the leading key robotics using countries, Japan and Germany, both face declining populations. They are well placed to maintain industry by using still more robotics to continue to lead in product quality. Skills shortages, have not been relieved by re-training during the r
29、ecession and remain an important problem for industry. At least part of the solution is the application of robotics and automation. The concept of “Jobless recovery”, where an industry comes out of a recession leaner, needing fewer employees, is only short term. It is likely to lead to more job crea
30、tion by the leaner, more competitive companies. At the same time, the service sector continues to absorb most of the displaced people. Some of these new service people owe their jobs to new robot driven industry. The updated figures allow some revision of the previous report and allow the forecasts
31、to look forward another two years. Among the developing technologies which need robotics, there have been changes in the cost equation caused by the reduction in gas costs in USA as shale gas is exploited. This may lead to other shale gas activities in Europe, for example. The effect is to widen the
32、 gap between the cost of generating electricity by wind power and gas. By contrast, for photovoltaic electricity generation, there is currently a large oversupply of solar panels. The result is almost certainly the survival of a smaller number of more efficient, even more automated producers. Curren
33、t solar module prices range from about 70 to 90 cents per megawatt, less than half of the price three years ago. Module prices may go as low as 45 cents by 2015. There is more caution about the speed of acceptance of electric vehicles than even two years ago. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2008 2011 R
34、obots/10,000 employees in manufacturing5 Metra Martech 1.3 Employment directly due to the use of robotics World The robot industry itself generates 170,000 to 190,000 jobs worldwide, to which can be added the support staff and operators, another similar number of people. As already mentioned, there
35、are three other types of application where robotics create or preserve jobs. These are jobs which can only be done by robots. I Where the product cannot be made to satisfactory precision, consistency and cost, without Robotics. II Where the conditions under which the current work is done are unsatis
36、factory may be illegal in the developed countries, but where a robot will operate. III Where particularly a developed country manufacturing unit with high labour costs is threatened by a unit in a low labour cost area. Metra Martech Metra Martech 0 500.000 1.000.000 1.500.000 Maximum Minimum Jobs cr
37、eated directly by robotics up to 2011 by sector 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Robotics industry and operation Where precision or consistency requires robots Where robots overcome poor working conditions Maximum Minimum Jobs created directly by robotics up to 2011 by application 6 Metra Martech 1.4 Employmen
38、t indirectly due to the use of robotics A much larger source of employment, at least partly due to robotics, is the newly created downstream activity necessary to support manufacturing which can only be done by robots. We have been conservative in what we have chosen to include here. Some of the peo
39、ple we have spoken to, for example, would have liked us to have included large parts of the automotive sector sales and distribution employment. Our conclusion was that much of this infrastructure was in place before robots were widely used, and so not resulting from the use of robots. The best exam
40、ple is the communication and leisure equipment business, from distribution to retailing. In the USA, this part of retailing is of the order of 1 million. In world terms this accounts for 3 to 5 million of jobs which would not exist if automation and robotics had not been developed to allow productio
41、n of millions of electronic products, from Phones to Playstations to Tablets. In world terms, these groups directly and indirectly generate jobs of the following order and in the country groups shown : Total employment due to Robotics in 2008 report first edition The period 2008 to 2011 was turbulen
42、t in economic terms, but using the same criteria as in 1.3 above to set up the above estimates, new employment generated in these three years due to robotics is calculated to be of the following order of magnitude. Application type Jobs created by robotics 2008 Areas where the jobs are created Robot
43、ics industry and operation 300,000 Mainly industrialised countries Where precision or consistency sometimes within cost, requires robots 2 to 3 million All countries with these industries Where poor working conditions are overcome by the use of robots 150,000 to 300,000 Mainly industrialised countri
44、es Where a sector which fails to use robots would be uncompetitive in world terms 2 to 3 million half of this at least overlaps with the above Mainly industrialised countries Downstream jobs created by new products and services 3 to 5 million Countries where these products are sold. Total 8 to 10 mi
45、llion 7 Metra Martech By sector, numbers employed directly as a result of robots are of the order of: Sector Total employment in the industry world 2008 Proportion of jobs which would not be there if robots were not used* Jobs created by robotics world to 2008 Robotics industry 150,000 100% 150,000
46、Robotics operation 150,000 100% 150,000 Food and drink 15m to 20m Well under 1% 50,000 to 100,000 Chemicals, pharma and plastics 12m to 15m 8m to 10m* Under 1% 100,000 to 150,000 Foundries 1.5m to 2m 1 to 2% 15,000 to 40,000 Electrical and electronics 12m to 15m 5 to 10% 700,000 to 1.2 million Autom
47、otive 10m to 12 m 10 to 15% 1 to 1.5 million 2 to 3 million Preservation of local industry which overlaps with some of the above. 2 to 3 million And Indirectly PlusDownstream jobs in these sectors. 3 to 5 million Total 8 to 10 million* Metra Martech *The Chinese figure is probably too large. If we r
48、educe this, the total is more realistic. *This is the controversial column. It varies greatly between the industries for example most of the food industry would survive without robots. A lot of non robot automation and process control is used anyway, as well as low cost labour. By contrast, electron
49、ics or Automotive are high users of robots and without them parts of the industry could not survive even in the low cost countries. It also varies between countries, with higher proportions of robot dependent jobs in high cost countries such as Japan and Germany, and lower proportions in low cost countries such as China and India. There are no agreed statistics on this, but we have discussed the estimates used here with the panel of robotics experts.
