1、Reuters Company ResearchGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) 24 Dec 2009Performance Rating: Underperform1999 2009Share Price Summary Overview Percent Price Change GS S&P 500Close Price on 12/24/09. $163.97 Float (mil). 463.900 Year to Date94.30 24.71Absolute Price Change on 12/24/09 0.34 10 Day Average Vo
2、lume (mil). 6.642 One Year.114.51 29.76Percent Change. 0.21% 1 Day Volume Change on 12/24/09.-75.71% Two Years. -23.49.-24.72Off 52-Week High.-15.30% Market Capitalization (mil)$84,294 Three Years. -17.22.-20.15Over 52-Week Low 177.30% TTM Price/EarningsNA Five Years.57.13.-6.91Beta. 1.383 Price/Ear
3、nings Current Fiscal Year Estimate8.55 Ten Years. 102.43.-22.76Table of ContentsReuters Rating . 2Getting Acquainted .3Share Price Trends .4General Sentiment 5Stock Price Rationale 6Expectations and Credibility .7Footprints of Success . 8REUTERS COMPANY REPORT DISCLAIMERThis research report is provi
4、ded for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form the sole basis for any investment decision. Reference to any company is not a recommendationto buy or sell the shares of such company. The information used for, or presented in, this report has been obtained from sources
5、believed to be reliable, but Reuters makes no representation as to theaccuracy or completeness of such information. This report in intended only for users in the United States. Reuters has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a readerthereof in the event that a
6、ny matter stated herein becomes inaccurate. Reuters and/or its affiliates/investors may hold securities positions in the companies discussed in this report and may frequentlytrade in such positions. Such investments may be inconsistent with the quantitative analysis provided in this report.This repo
7、rt was generated using a proprietary quantitative model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to rank and rate a universe of more than 4700 US companiesand US-listed ADRs with a market capitalization greater than $50mm based on a series of financial attributes. Th
8、ese ratings are not intended as an indication of how an individuals investment willperform. As used in this report, “Outperform“ designates the companies that rank in the top 30% of companies covered by Reuters, “Neutral“ designates the middle 40%, and the bottom 30% aredesignated “Underperform“. Al
9、l ratings are relative to the universe of companies covered by Reuters and not to any specific benchmark. Reuters 2004. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced, modified, distributed or published without the prior written authorization of Reuters. Reuters and the sphere logo are thetr
10、ademarks or registered trademarks of the Reuters Group of companies around the world.Reuters Composite RatingWe cannot guarantee that each stock will performin accordance with its rank. But we do believe thatover the long term, stocks rated Outperform (30%of all stocks we rate) will, in the aggregat
11、e,outperform stocks rated Neutral (40% of all stockswe rate), and that stocks rated Neutral will, in theaggregate, outperform stocks rated Underperform(30%). All analysis is based on publicly availablecompany financials, fundamental ratios, relativerankings of financial data and ratios, and observed
12、security prices.Underperf orm Neutral Outperf ormGS shares are presently rated UNDERPERFORM.No forecast is made for the stock market as a whole.However, we do believe that whichever way the marketmoves, it is probable that shares rated UNDERPERFORMare, in the aggregate, less likely to keep pace with
13、 mostothers.Component RatingFundamentalQualityOutperformNeutralUnderTechnicalFactorsOutperformNeutralUnderValueCatch-upOutperformNeutralUnderOperationalTrendsOutperformNeutralUnder“Under“ = UnderperformComponent WeightTypes of investment criteria differ in how usefulthey are for predicting future st
14、ock movement.Based on our research, the Composite Rankassumes these relative degrees of importance.Fundamental Quality 36%Technical Factors 27%Operational Trends 13%Value Catch-up 24%Technical Factors: NeutralThis rating is based on analyses of share pricemovements over a variety of time periods. We
15、compare performance characteristics of individualstocks with those of all the others we rate.Generally speaking, our goal is to favor up-trendingshares that have experienced recent correctionsand de-emphasize down-trending sharesexperiencing uncharacteristic periods of strength.Here is how GS shares
16、 performed during thevarious periods we examined.Price ChangePast 7 days 0.5%Past 30 days -2.9%Past 60 days -8.6%Change for Past 180 Days: 11.7%Open on 6/29/09Close on 12/24/09$146.74 $163.97Change Between 60 and 30 Days Ago: -5.8%Open on 10/26/09Close on 11/25/09$179.37$168.92Change Between 180 and
17、 60 Days Ago: 22.2%Open on 6/29/09Close on 10/26/09$146.74$179.37Change Between 180 and 90 Days Ago: 22.3%Open on 6/29/09Close on 9/25/09$146.74$179.50Fundamental Quality Component: UnderperformThis rating is based on characteristics traditionally associated with “good“ companies. We focus on how ea
18、ch companymeasures up against others, and give careful attention to recent improvement or slippage relative to other companies.TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.Very Negative Negative Neutral Positive Very PositiveTTM Return on Investment Improvement in TTM Return on Investment TTM Pretax Margin Improvem
19、ent in TTM Pretax Margin Depreciation in Excess of Capital Spending Needs Issuance/Repurchase of Common Shares Common Shares Dilution Presence/Absence of Unusual Income Items Value Catch-up Component: UnderperformThis rating measures the extent to which the share price adequately reflects improving
20、or eroding fundamentals, and favorsshares whose prices have been slower to “catch up“ to improving performance measures. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.Very Negative Negative Neutral Positive Very PositivePrice Catch-up with TTM Earnings Price Catch-up to TTM Sales Price Catch-up to TTM Free Cash Flow
21、 Price Catch-up to MRQ Book Value Operational Trends Component: UnderperformThis rating reflects how strong a companys recent Sales and EPS (reported as per GAAP) growth have been relative to othercompanies we rate. MRQ = Most Recent Quarter. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.Very Negative Negative Neutr
22、al Positive Very PositiveMost Recent Quarter EPS Growth Improvement in EPS Growth for Consecutive Quarters Improvement in EPS Growth (MRQ vs. TTM) Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth Improvement in Sales Growth (MRQ vs. TTM) Peer ComparisonThis section shows the comparison of key components between GS
23、and several of its peers.Company Name (Ticker)CompositeRatingFundamentalQualityTechnicalFactorsValueCatch-upOperationalTrendsGoldman Sachs G. (GS) Underperform Underperform Neutral Underperform UnderperformBank of America Corpora. (BAC) Underperform Underperform Outperform Underperform NeutralCitigr
24、oup Inc. (C) Underperform Underperform Neutral Neutral NeutralUBS AG (UBSN) NA NA NA NA NAING Groep N.V. (INGA) NA NA NA NA NADeutsche Bank AG (DBK) NA NA NA NA NAGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) - Investment Services/Financial Reuters Company ResearchPerformance Rating: UnderperformReuters ratin
25、gs are based on a proprietary model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to select attributes shown to be strong indicators of futurestock price performance and applies these to rank stocks along a normal distribution curve. Ranks for Fundamental Quality, Value C
26、atch-up, Operational Trends and Technical Factorsare combined into a Composite Rating of Outperform, Neutral or Underperform.December 24, 2009 Page 2Business SummaryThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Goldman Sachs) is a bank holding company and global investment banking,securities and investment managem
27、ent firm that provides services worldwide to corporations, financial institutions,governments and high-net-worth individuals. Its activities are divided into three segments: Investment Banking,Trading and Principal Investments, and Asset Management and Securities Services. On December 11, 2007,Credi
28、t-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC, a sub-prime mortgage investor, completed the sale of its LittonLoan Servicing business to Goldman Sachs. In May 2008, MBF Healthcare Partners, LP and Goldman Sachsannounced the acquisition of OMNI Home Care (OMNI), a provider of skilled nursing and the
29、rapy home healthcareservices. MBF Healthcare Partners, LP and Goldman Sachs will share joint ownership of OMNI. In June 2008, itsdivision, Goldman Sachs Urban Investment Group, and Cordova, Smart & Williams, LLC announced the acquisition ofH2O Plus, LLC.Contact InfoGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. is headq
30、uarteredat:85 Broad Street, New York, NY, 10004United States(212) 902- E. Holmes, Investor RelationsFinancial TrendsTTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.Historic Growth RatesFiscal Year Ending 11/25/05 11/24/06 11/30/07 11/28/08 12/26/08 TTM 3 Year 5 Year 10 YearSales (mil) $43,391.
31、0 $69,353.0 $87,968.0 $53,579.0 $1,185.0 NA (74.24) (47.55) (26.39)EPS (GAAP) $11.21 $19.69 $24.73 $4.47 ($2.15) NA NA NA NADividends/Share $1.00 $1.30 $1.40 $1.40 $0.47 NA (28.76) (14.02) 6.95Book Value/Share $60.05 $79.21 $101.62 $108.23 $105.23 * $127.38 9.93 15.08 16.63Tangible Book Value/Sh. $4
32、8.15 $65.43 $88.58 $96.48 $93.60 * $117.76 12.68 17.38 15.27Cash Flow/Share $12.92 $21.77 $27.26 $8.04 ($1.82) NA NA NA NAFree Cash Flow/Share ($28.68) ($115.09) ($157.00) ($2.15) ($28.77) NA NA NA NAKey RatiosHistoric AveragesFiscal Year Ending 11/25/05 11/24/06 11/30/07 11/28/08 12/26/08 TTM 3 Yea
33、r 5 Year 10 Year% Sales Growth 45.4 59.8 26.8 (39.1) (97.8) NA (36.7) (1.0) 2.3% EPS Growth 25.7 75.6 25.6 (81.9) (148.1) NA (68.1) (20.6) (3.2)% Gross Margin 51.8 49.9 47.6 33.0 (8.6) NA 24.0 34.7 44.1% Operating Margin 19.1 21.0 20.0 4.4 (106.2) NA (27.3) (8.3) 4.1% Tax Rate 32.0 34.5 34.1 0.6 38.
34、0 NA 24.2 27.8 31.5% Return on Assets 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.2 (0.1) NA 0.4 0.7 0.8% Return on Investment 1.6 2.1 2.1 0.4 (0.1) NA 0.8 1.2 1.4% Return on Equity 21.9 31.9 31.5 4.7 (2.2) NA 11.3 17.5 17.0Asset Turnover 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 NA 0.0 0.1 0.1Receivables Turnover 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 NA 0.4 0.5 0.7In
35、ventory Turnover NM NM NM NM NM NA NA NA NAEquity InformationWhether you are willing to accept companies that have or dont have major shareholders with controlling ownership blocks,multiple classes of common, or convertible debt or preferred issues is a matter of individual preference. Look here for
36、anything along these lines that might make you more or less inclined to invest in this company.Common Stock $.01 Par, 9/09, 4B auth., 751,358,890 issd., less 238,302,927 shs. in Treas. $32.16B. Insiders own 3.73% (incl.7.5M options). Parties to Shareholders Agreement own 7.5%. IPO 5/4/99, 69M shs. (
37、51M by the Co.) $53 by Goldman, Sachs.Perpetual Pref. Stock $.01 Par, 235K auth.,174K issd.Analyst FootnotesLook for accounting changes, restructurings,etc.which may affect how useful historic data isinassessing future company prospects.On April 13, 2009, the Board of Directors of Group Inc.determin
38、ed to change fiscal year end from the last Fridayof Dec. to Dec. 31, from fiscal 2009.Peer ComparisonThis table gives an indication of how Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stands in key respects compared with companies in the Investment Services IndustryCompany Name (Ticker)Last Fiscal YearRevenue (mil)Cur
39、rent FiscalYear ProjectedRevenue (mil)ProjectedPrice/Sales Operating EPSCurrent FiscalYear ProjectedEPSP/E Based onCurrent YearEstimatesEPS % GrowthPrevious 5 YearsEPS % GrowthNext 5 YearsGoldman Sachs G. (GS) $1,185.0 $46,064.5 1.8 NA $19.18 8.6 NA 12.0Bank of America Corpora. (BAC) $85,684.0 $119,
40、327.4 1.1 $0.55 ($0.18) NM (31.0) 9.1Citigroup Inc. (C) $106,655.0 $93,604.8 0.8 ($6.42) ($0.50) NM NA 2.7UBS AG (UBSN) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAING Groep N.V. (INGA) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NADeutsche Bank AG (DBK) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAMorgan Stanley (MS) $212.0 $25,408.9 1.6 NA ($0.62) NM NA 11.8Lehm
41、an Brothers Holding. (LEHMQ) $59,003.0 NA NA $7.26 NA NA 33.2 NAGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) - Investment Services/Financial Reuters Company ResearchGetting AcquaintedStart your analysis by learning what the company does, how well it does it, where it stands relative to peers, and whether asp
42、ects of the corporate structure or capitalization arebothersome to you.December 24, 2009 Page 31 Year Price Chart with Bollinger Bands and Relative StrengthTechnical analysts believe a narrowing of the bands suggests a significant price movement, up or down, will soon occur. Also, many say stocks th
43、at move outside the bands and thenback inside will soon move toward the opposite band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates the strength of the current price movement compared to other recent moves andmay signal when a trend is unsustainable. Technical analysts also believe RSI peaks/valleys
44、 forecast changes in share price trends.110.00 150.00 $190.00 15.96 Average VolumeJan 09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Volume (mil)Relative Strength Indicator 50% 100% Low: 59.13High: 193.6010 Year Price Chart (Monthly)50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 $250.00 0.14 Vol (bil) 2000 2001 2002 20
45、03 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Year Price Chart (Monthly)50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 $250.00 0.21 Vol (bil) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 6 Month Price Chart (Daily)148.00 163.00 178.00 $193.00 9.83 Vol (mil) Jul 09 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Month Price Chart (Daily)162.00 167.00 $172.00 8.18 Vol (mil) No
46、v 09 Dec Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) - Investment Services/Financial Reuters Company ResearchShare Price TrendsStock price trends depict the collective opinion of the investment community. You dont have to agree with consensus views but seeing how others feel can help you decide what tolook
47、for as you go further in your analysis. Consider it similar to reading a review before seeing a movie.December 24, 2009 Page 452 Week Price History110.00 150.00 $190.00 15.96 Average VolumeJan 09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Volume (mil)200 Day Moving Average50 Day Moving AveragePrice
48、 HistoryCalendar Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008High Price 133.63 120.00 97.25 100.78 110.88 134.99 206.70 250.70 215.05Low Price 69.38 63.27 58.57 61.02 83.29 94.75 124.23 157.38 47.41Year End Price 106.94 92.75 68.10 98.73 104.04 127.71 199.35 215.05 84.39High P/E 22.01 25.17 24.
49、53 18.39 14.69 16.11 14.69 11.13 22.76Low P/E 9.48 12.92 13.88 11.28 8.56 7.74 6.49 6.58 5.64Year End P/E 16.90 20.47 15.97 16.05 11.19 10.89 9.52 8.16 NMDividend Yield 0.45 0.52 0.70 0.75 0.96 0.78 0.65 0.65 0.56Price PerformanceWhen stocks significantly beat or trail the S&P 500 or the industry, investors are looking more intently at company- specificmatters than general-market factors. In the two percentile rank columns, a high “Rank in Industry“ coupled with a low“Industry Rank“ could signify a hot stock in a
