1、李世默 TED：中国崛起与“元叙事”的终结Good morning. My name is Eric Li, and I was born here. But no, I wasnt born there. This was where I was born: Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution. My grandmother tells me that she heard the sound of gunfire along with my first cries. When I was growing up, I was t
2、old a story that explained all I ever needed to know that humanity. It went like this. All human societies develop in linear progression, beginning with primitive society, then slave society, feudalism, capitalism, socialism, and finally, guess where we end up? Communism! Sooner or later, all of hum
3、anity, regardless of culture, language, nationality, will arrive at this final stage of political and social development. The entire worlds peoples will be unified in this paradise on earth and live happily ever after. But before we get there, were engaged in a struggle between good and evil, the go
4、od of socialism against the evil of capitalism, and the good shall triumph. That, of course, was the meta-narrative distilled from the theories of Karl Marx. And the Chinese bought it. We were taught that grand story day in and day out. It became part of us, and we believed in it. The story was a be
5、stseller. About on third of the entire worlds population lived under that meta narrative. Then, the world changed overnight. As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth, I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie. Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened. As if one bi
6、g story wasnt enough, I was told another one. This one was just as grand. It also claims that all human societies develop in a linear progression towards a singular end. This one went as follows. All societies, regardless of culture, be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian, must progress from traditional
7、 societies in which groups are the basic units to modern societies in which atomized individuals are the sovereign units, and all these individuals are, by definition, rational, and they all want one thing: the vote. Because they all rational, once given the vote, they produce good government and li
8、ve happily ever after. Paradise on earth, again. Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be the only political system for all countries and all peoples, with a free market to make them all rich. But before we get there, were engaged in a struggle between good and evil. The good belongs to those wh
9、o are democracies and are charged with a mission of spreading it around the globe, sometimes by force, against the evil of those who do not hold elections. Now. This story also became a bestseller. According to the Freedom House, the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970 to 115 in 2010. In the
10、last 20years, Western elites tirelessly trotted around the globe selling this prospectus: multiple parties fight for political power and everyone voting on them is the only path to salvation to the long-suffering developing world. Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success. Those who do n
11、ot are doomed to fail. But this time, the Chinese didnt buy it. Fool me once The rest is history. In just 3p years, China went from one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world to its second-largest economy. Six hundred fifty million people were lifted out of poverty. Eighty percent of the
12、 entire worlds poverty alleviation during that period happened in China. In other words, all the new and old democracies put together amounted to a mere fraction of what a single, one-party state did without voting. See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps. Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams
13、per person per month at one point. Needless to say, I ate my grandmothers portions. So I asked myself, whats wrong with this picture? Here I am in my hometown, my business growing leaps and bounds. Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day. Middle class is expanding in speed and scale unprecede
14、nted in human history. Yet, according to the grand story, none of this should be happening. So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it. Yes, China is a one-party state run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party, and they dont hold elections. There assumptions are made by the dominant
15、political theories of our time. Such a system is operationally rigid, politically closed, and morally illegitimate. Well, the assumptions are wrong. The opposites are true. Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy are the three defining characteristics of Chinas one-party system. Now, most politica
16、l scientists will tell us that a one-party system is inherently incapable of self-correction. It wont last long because it cannot adapt. Now here are the facts. In 64 years of running the largest country in the world, the range of the partys policies has been wider than any other country in recent m
17、emory, from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward, then privatization of farmland, then the Cultural Revolution, then Deng Xiaopings market reform, then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step of opening up party membership to private businesspeople, something unimagina
18、ble during Maos rule. So the party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions. Institutionally, new rules get enacted to correct previous dysfunctions. For example, term limits. Political leaders used to retain their positions for life, and they used that to accumulate power and perpetuate their rule
19、s. Mao was the father of modern China, yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes. So the party instituted term limits with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70. One thing we often hear is political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms and China is in dire need of political reform.
20、 But this claim is a rhetorical trap hidden behind a political bias. See, some have decided a priori what kinds of changes they want to see, and only such changes can be called political reform. The truth is, political reforms have never stopped. Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years a
21、go, every aspect of Chinese society, how the country is governed, from the most local level to the highest center, are unrecognizable today. Now such changes are simply not possible without political reforms of the most fundamental kind. Now I would venture to suggest the Party is the worlds leading
22、 expert in political reform. The second assumption is that in a one-party state, power gets concentrated in the hands of the few, and bad governance and corruption follow. Indeed, corruption is a big problem, but lets first look at the larger context. Now, this maybe be counterintuitive to you. The
23、party happens to be one of the most meritocratic political institutions in the world today. Chinas highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members. In the most recent one, only five of them came from a background of privilege, so-called Princelings. The other 20, including the President and the P
24、remier, came from entirely ordinary backgrounds. In the larger central committee of 300 or more, the percentage of those who were born into power and wealth was even smaller. The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders worked and competed their way to the top. Compare that with the ruling elites in
25、both developed and developing countries, I think youll find the Party being near the top in upward mobility. The question then is, how could that be possible in a system run by one party? New we come to a powerful political institution, little-known to Westerners: the Partys Organization Department.
26、 The Department functions like a giant human resource engine that would be the envy of even some of the most successful corporations. It operates a rotation pyramid made up of there components: civil service, state-owned enterprises, and social organizations like a university or a community program.
27、 The form separate yet integrated career paths for Chinese officials. They recruit college grads into entry-level positions in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom, called Keyuan Then they could get promoted through four increasingly elite ranks: fuke, ke, fuchu, and chu. Now these are n
28、ot moves from karate kids, okay? Its serious business. The range of positions is wide, from running health care in a village to foreign investment in a city district to manager in a company. Once a year, the department reviews their performance. They interview their superiors, their peers, their sub
29、ordinates. They vet their personal conduct. They conduct public opinion surveys. Then they promote the winners. Throughout their careers, these cadres can move through and out of all three tracks. Over time, the food ones move beyond the four base levels to the fuju and ju, levels. There, they enter
30、 high, officialdom. By that point, a typical assignment will be to manage a district with population in the millions or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. Just to show you how competitive the system is, in 2012, there were 900000 fuke and ke levels, 600000 fuchu and chu level
31、s, and only 40000 fuju and ju levels. After the ju levels, the best few move further up several more ranks, and eventually make it to the Central Committee. The process takes two to three decades. Does patronage play a role? Yes of course. But merit remains the fundamental driver. In essence, the Or
32、ganization Department runs a modernizes version of Chinas centuries-old mandarin system. Chinas new President Xi Jinping is son of a former leader, which is very unusual, first of his kind to make the top job. Even for him, the career took 30 years. He started as a village manager, and by the time h
33、e entered the Politburo, he had managed areas with total population of 150 million people and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars. Now, please dont get me wrong, okay? This is not a putdown of anyone. Its just a statement of fact. George W. Bush, remember him? This is not a putdown. Before be
34、coming Governor of Texas, or Barack Obama before running for President, could not make even a small county manager in Chinas system. Winston Churchill once said that democracy is a terrible system except for all the rest. Well, apparently he hadnt heard of the Organization Department. Now, Westerner
35、s always assume that multi-party election with universal suffrage is the only source of political legitimacy. I was asked once, “The Party wasnt voted in by election. Where is the source of Legitimacy?” I said, “How about competency?”: We all know the facts. In 1949, when the Party took power, China
36、 was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression, average life expectancy at that time, 42 years old. Today, its the second largest economy in the world, an industrial powerhouse, and its people live in increasing prosperity. Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes, and here are the n
37、umbers in recent years. Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent. Those who think theyre better off than five years ago, 70%. Those who expects the future to be better, a whopping 82 percent. Financial Times polls global youth attitudes and these numbers, brand new, just came from
38、last week. Ninety-three-percent of Chinas GenerationY are optimistic about their countrys future. Now, if this is not legitimacy, Im not sure what is. In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world are suffering from dismal performance. I dont need to elaborate for this audience how dysfun
39、ctional it is from Washington to European capitals. With a few exceptions, the vast number of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes are still suffering from poverty and civil strife. Governments get elected, and then they fall below 50 percent approval in a few months and stay the
40、re and get worse until the next election. Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle of elect and regret. At this rate, Im afraid it is democracy, not Chinas one-party system, that is in danger of losing legitimacy. Now, I dont want to create the misimpression that Chinas hunky-dory on the way to some
41、kind of superpowerdom. The country faces enormous challenges. Social and economic problems that come with wrenching change like this are mine-boggling. Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues. On the political front, the worst problem is corruption. Corruption is widespread and undermines t
42、he system and its moral legitimacy. But most analysts mis-diagnose the disease. They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system, and therefore, in order to cure it, you have to do away with the entire system. But a more careful look would tell us otherwise. Transparency International
43、ranks China between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries, and its been moving up. India, the largest democracy in the world, 94 and dropping. For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China, more than half of them are electoral democracies. So if election is the panacea for corr
44、uption, how come these countries cant fix it? Now, Im a venture capitalist. I make bets. It wouldnt be fair to end this talk without putting myself on the line and making some predictions. So here they are. In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S. and become the largest economy in the world
45、. Income per capital will be near the top of all developing countries. Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated, and China will move up 10 to 20 notches to above 60 in T.I. ranking. Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue, and the one-party system will hold firm. We live
46、 in the dusk of an era. Meta-narratives that make universal claims failed us in the 20th century and are failing us in the 21st. Meta-narrative is the cancer that is killing democracy from the inside. Now, I want to clarify something. Im not here to make an indictment of democracy. On the contrary,
47、I think democracy contributed to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world. It is the universal claim that many Western elites are making about their political system, the hubris, that is at the heart of the Wests current ills. If they would spend just a little less time on trying to
48、 force their way onto others, and a little bit more on political reform at home, they might give their democracy a better chance. Chinas political model will never supplant electoral democracy, because unlike the latter, it doesnt pretend to be universal. It cannot be exported. But that is the point
49、 precisely. The significance of Chinas example is not that it provides and alternative but the demonstration that alternatives exist. Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives. Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals, but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over. Let us stop telling people and our children theres only one way to govern ourselves and a singular future towards which all societies must evolve. It is wrong. It is irresponsible. And worst of all, it is boring. Let universality make way for plurality. Perha
