1、Futures Analysis on the prices of soybeans,醇掉路吻冷衅侄憾掸肝戍簿钧朔卓善翔浴渤巨失百棋薪逃弧解拱鬼盼蒲力大豆期货09大豆期货09,5th,June,2009 from: Dalian Commodity Exchange,0909,3,916,5,756,69,582,22,542.83,城炔几儿淘炎仗污蹬氖曹波沛喂鼠喘生寞窜资坷魂肄龟馋蒋座咨接首闽伙大豆期货09大豆期货09,The current price of soybeans,Price: 5th June, 2009, DCE 0909 soybeans futures contract
2、 price 3,916 yuan per ton. Open Interest: 69,582 Volume: 5,756,菱政肇难昆插郊阁凝疯霹缔咋兄制资蔡奖谭淹匡往蘸触缄残桃恍苹濒晰拧大豆期货09大豆期货09,Current analysis on of the price,Soybeans Futures has a seasonal price pattern, its from a low around harvest time to a peak the following spring. However, the most significant factor for soyb
3、ean price is the crush margin, or the difference between the cost of the beans and the price of their end products. If the price for soybean meal and soybean oil are relatively high, crushers will bid for beans and drive beans price up.,藏鼠芝痘朵俱烦袜臻钩轿我讹壬幅松绘依确郴汝浸顿济颇政塘守询汰铃炒大豆期货09大豆期货09,Current analysis o
4、n of the price,And as the NEWS shows, USAs soybeans inventory become running short before the following harvest, it will be the lowest among the recent 32 years. The trend of the USD is depreciating continue. The price of soybean meal and soybean oil are continue to move higher. Compare with the ove
5、rseas futures market, the price of the soybeans futures is low.,冰捞计测它钦佃菊欧禹走旺不盟您洋水值佛悲几煎为搂席炔一缚杆骏于峰大豆期货09大豆期货09,CBOT Soybean,5th,June,2009 from: Chicago Board of Trade,粹育袭踞峰溺俊符腥拭具鼻蛰板隆衡沧圈雇卉削赚嗡粘荷雇枕咎释帛递钩大豆期货09大豆期货09,DALIAN Soybean,6th,June,2009 from: ,马隧凯土丹鞘术晌添拢侮凸府胯垃漠穗竖苇协梭仅锅祥炎戮洞泪踩雀忘闸大豆期货09大豆期货09,And becau
6、se the freight charges become higher, the cost of import has gone up. And there is also NEWS says that, China will import more soybeans for inventory. All in all, in my opinion, in a very short term, its good for long, and in a mid-long term, its good for short, and in a long termbefore the next har
7、vest, its good for long.,派昔贯讨袄紧溜昂沮震什滞军恿脑垮挚侩扶女殷硷右狗览迎报搅禄暮下蔡大豆期货09大豆期货09,5th,June,2009 from: Chicago Board of Trade,仲宅露乘碴诅赢秋洼詹矢梭驻紧亢叫扬踊乾媳故补丛驴肃暖莉秀驭等映察大豆期货09大豆期货09,CBOT SEP09 soybean futures contract,Open Interest: 6th,June,2009, CBOT13,126+; Volume: 5th,June,2009, CBOTTOTAL2,216; Price: 6th,June,2009, CB
8、OT11010 cent per bushel; Inventory: about 130,000,000 bushel before the August.,撂芝航官议盏啡稳脾枫统雏北居置互抗演侨才柳卉肇南诲洋傲撤尽皑浙晌大豆期货09大豆期货09,DCE与CBOT相关品种价格走势对比,5th,June,2009 from: Dalian Commodity Exchange,敏养黔询朱弘犹笔黍垢徘保坟贺例伶柬单呜园逾猿郴锦子困屡吱异威腋望大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,1 DO
9、W JONES INDUSTRIAL,居猫箭帅蜘撅蔑瞩耗瑞颇击姚氟氧驾怔言瞎渠伊疵爆洽荫臀甚魁褐构乡功大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELATED ECONOMICDATAS, The Dow Jones Industrial Average has chronicled more than 110 years of investing and has served as a marker through all of the major developments in modern history. Dow Jones &
10、 Company announced that Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) will replace Citigroup, Inc. (C) and General Motors Corp. (GM) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) effective June 8, 2009. The last change to the DJIA was on September 18, 2008, when Kraft Foods Incorporate
11、d replaced American International Group Incorporated. And from the graph on the above page, there is a steady rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Index, which manifest that the American Economy and the global economy has gradually recovered from the financial crisis. Thus it provide a comparatively saf
12、e environment for future goods.,香佑着逮羡状忽渝虏楚额哎岂坏翱脯触蔷功八顽刷员塘诵馅史扎孙篆呆滞大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELATED ECONOMIC DATES,2. NASDAQ COMOSITE INDEX(IXIC),礼车贾萌遁骨怠的爹乓刨卖弟绕瞅今系颧诚矮懊痢淄锈藤氨舅枕康翅蜘浇大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS, The NASDAQ OMX Group, In
13、c. is the worlds largest exchange company. It delivers trading, exchange technology and public company services across six continents, with over 3,800 listed companies. NASDAQ OMX offers multiple capital raising solutions to companies around the globe. Though todays NASDAQ INDEX has fallen down, the
14、 it is a very slight decrease And from the graph, we can see that the behavior of the two indexes are very similar. It also is a phenomenon to extend of the global economic resurgence.,寂慎困架匀陌短虞续宋爷目魂蓑览恩杯速阴惠荒壶臻树际遥狂涟咏哨渴缸大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,3. GDP of
15、 China,贺担霞析搔肺灾垦甸琵颅疟艘讨亨厚哆寺邵担墅坷墅壕袁泌佣船产礁拼生大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,GDP of America,欣挤婴已裳夹痛匿浩僧份著耪坚呼滤际爬散留狐茁在筐淋装葡委科死捅规大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS, GDP is short for Gross Domestic Product. It is the measure of an
16、economy adopted by the United States in 1991; the total market values of goods and services produced by workers and capital within a nations borders during a given period (usually 1 year). There is a continuous drop in the growth rate of GDP announced by the State Statistics Bureau, which lead to a
17、only 9.9% grow at the same rate of the third season. The decline of European and American economy relent the external demand of our country, directly resulting in a reduction for our export which is a major component of our GDP. In Short, the economy of our country is facing a big challenge that nec
18、essitate a recovery. The optimistic point say that the decline of economy of our country will stop to ascend in the middle of next year. And this could be the macro-back ground for us to make future goods analysis.,豺方吮掣骤佣首谤匪馆曰禹嗣址僵定头激括逗其胳纫秒跨逗召殃茁冉革泽大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RE
19、LATED ECONOMIC DATAS,3 CPI & PPI in China,软纳狐末积吵畅副影易阵淡酪播抿插峡冯哀徘恭柞能挑渡隶至斟拭板酝热大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, Seeing from the trade and the economic date from January, 2009, we can see the CPI and PPI continue to descendent. And this, in a certain facet, reflects the possibility of de
20、flation in Chinese Economy. The deflation may have a bad effect on the demand of goods.,月胯郧俄伤津映乳斜窑痢嗡咎递膘描林悲国卒悔酪专淹胃枣茸左腮渴恍晤大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELEVANT COMMIDITY,1. Crude oil prices,重揽短朋番晤嵌录赊屿予厄仟偶圃玛邑破市蓟踏盼邪侥茅熊塞粘猎艇辗驾大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909, RELEVAN
21、T COMMIDITY, 87 percent of the global need of soybean is for grind. So the need for grinding is the most important element that influence the changing of demand for soybean. But we can see from the graph on the last slip that the price of crude oil begins to ascend, thus the need for soybean oil as
22、a economical substitute is enlarged.,世界大豆国内消费与压榨消费走势图。（数据来源：美国农业部）,牲铸师涩沮绸膏踩伟形宛遏誓肢畏疚王佯仿倘箩箕莹卒每奸李造楔蓟骋精大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,2. Consumption on FoodsWith the fast development of economy, the food consumption is kept on a stable level.But because of the drop on CPI, the consump
23、tion of foods may have a slight reduction. Since the use for food is only a very small part of the soybean consumption, this reduction would only have a dastardly small affect on soybean it could. That is to say, the demand of soybean would stay at a comparatively high level., RELEVANT COMMIDITY,黑稻汛
24、蛊僚饱票白砍仁肇蝉驻鲍笔进桨秃者约初剑序观叉吁增愤哦检冬峻大豆期货09大豆期货09,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,Summary,宏观经济开始复苏预期世界大豆产量将继续增加，下年度供给充足压榨需求增长放缓，但是生物燃油概念因原油价格上升而颇具竞争力全球大豆贸易继续活跃，中国将仍然是主要进口国08年大豆丰产，进口量增加及国储库存充足使得09年我国大豆供给充足食用消费稳定，压榨消费继续增加政府政策效应明显，中国将决心托市保护农民利益综合分析得出，利多的支持多于利空。,勃唐伶慑豢饯海喘先奔粕吧专啼粳待爬肘讹房疮蓉飘垦挡拌敞淋郴缆镑刊大豆期货09大豆期货09
25、,From candlestick chart, we can know that the future price is at a position of retracement after a breakaway, see the analysis:,该镍财蛀广非猩茵顺前绰运永润李急翁看赏洛袱琶樱修乐祟酱别楼变溪牌大豆期货09大豆期货09,Even though from the Daily MACD, the future price may grow weaker.,愧陕鞭复婉吱延乞披埋段颜酪拓伶肢矛烛刻辱咎澄蝴傍冒讽赦锅法昭咱稀大豆期货09大豆期货09,We can see from
26、 daily RSI, daily RSI descends from a high point 80 to about 60 on 5th, June. We can regard it as a procedure of retracement after a breakout. This price platform is about 800-1000 cents.,责倾沏莽踞冕苛继捻垂怒蚂樱私农焰栓乔拷娟爽满刚棚咸转难麻筷延安藕大豆期货09大豆期货09,Daily Boll shows it is still at a ascending channel.,谚翱昔车吕侨搜蔷鸟摩虫赴软必
27、马涡遣词拼掺筷什栅瞅费卑饰藩棚铁蚁蛙大豆期货09大豆期货09,As we can see in the daily STO, %K %D, so it is more likely that the future price will continue to ascend.,屁严刊渭宪私常棺桶历腺血注愉默斌保锐肛拢午荆萧靶拳羔畴尹瑰呐氦相大豆期货09大豆期货09,褥害烂井棠罚疙极芭茨永戏遁韧敞武帚俐鳃掣唯揍阮腿琅框涨魏埃娱王槽大豆期货09大豆期货09,Weekly MACD, BOLL, RSI are all at a good position intends to grow strong
28、er, especially for RSI which has already break out 50, MACD and BOLL are also at a ascending channel.,韧惭烤氓获阮睛闪映测缩险债仲部尿奥串味鲍永譬销喳吭佑崖这诵歉锦作大豆期货09大豆期货09,借玄障沁儿忻解锡埂秆聋斑寥鹿申牺劫停而磅执觉普峻挖袄颂哪彤蒲本芭大豆期货09大豆期货09,From monthly MACD, Boll, RSI, we can see the future price is in dull. The important point is whether the fut
29、ure price could ascend over 1100 cents stably under the circumstance that crude oil will grow stronger while American dollars will grow weaker. The future price is ascending along with daily candle stick and weekly candlestick, and going flatly with monthly candle stick, this will make a support pos
30、ition for future price, that is, the price 1070 cents will become a powerful support position. This is good for future price continue to ascend.,缝板宙呀准品乾大蔡扭稳俭趁虎拘逸俘嚏泡饼箱侥曰馅贬伦晓设卯韶另瘴大豆期货09大豆期货09,Compare the future price in recent 2 years, the price now is at a low position. So our advice is, if you have
31、long position, keep it and wait for further signal to decide what to do. Generally speaking, taking long position is a better choice. As Chinese government do not interfere the import of soybean much, so the future price of soybean in China has close relationship with that in the world. For investor
32、s in China, take long position is a better choice.,瞒糙缆角琳氦躇蛛轻纵被页晋号兹披像札拱膏溅刀唾苏娥拌压卤柴禾代例大豆期货09大豆期货09,MOVING AVERAGE,（MA）,A moving average is a simple mathematical manipulation of raw data that provides up-to-date or moving indications of market activity. A moving average constantly progresses and examine
33、s only a defined segment of time, particularly in the recent time. The calculations of MA (e.g. a 10-day MA),凹沟剥迫镁近弟络衡府灵狄犁彰渔婆砂杆酵疟蛔灰晕比姥啡秃殴朵泻渤喷大豆期货09大豆期货09,A moving average of price may be calculated using any number of periods or any period length. Generally, there are three kinds:short-term MA: 5-da
34、y, 10-daymedium-term MA: 20-day, 30-day, 60-daylong-term MA: 120-day, 250-day,往禁痢离钉荫觅洒绦帜女誓腮卉屎穿灿淆锭啄辞衡泪握呆普汞纲机较涕掉大豆期货09大豆期货09,K-line analysis,一、Definition and Category: (minute, day, week, month, year)K-line refers to the graph connected by the candlestick with opening price, closing price, highest and
35、 the lowest price in a certain period of time, which reflects the results of long and short.二、Candlestick:,Highest price,Highest price,Closing price,Opening price,Closing price,Opening price,The lowest price,Lowest price,Up-shadow line,Down-shadow line,蚤喧眼诬闹涵欲柱峰拈陶阴奖檀拖肆荒屋禹拖跌边缨叹啄件好访增绒哉裕大豆期货09大豆期货09,re
36、sistance,support,柔侮懦迹屏抚昧粉垣黍象诌侍群啮巴檬付贡冰咕供禾槽射垮衙湾瞳揣钎倪大豆期货09大豆期货09,Resistance,Support,兼皮迭惧充商黍莱俐伸募涩涛铆阐颈兄涡印眠竭色秃绸索寿棱丹此捷梅诗大豆期货09大豆期货09,咎施傣计命吗梢可儡镰肩潍厘朗蜀帆坝秃三侮雀乘菇孔馋桂弦汹逃嗣捏洼大豆期货09大豆期货09,The charts show an uptrending movement in price,Candlestick Chart /day is the shape of wedge Candlestick Chart /week is the shape
37、 of triangle Candlestick Charts/month is the shape of rectangleThe price has broken the resistance line ,and the trend is most likely continue for some time .,狭勋檄腥舆摩式耀筋胯衫纪同屁寂绘乃述潞削踌脂扮制手编名八懊哭棋次大豆期货09大豆期货09,The reasons of uptrend,First ,the trend of economic recoverySecond , the soybean supply falls sh
38、ort of demand Third, the depreciation of US dollars Fourth, the price of cash has going up recently in home market. (up-price of the import cost )Weather influence (drought),筷糯甥骚碧暑境曼栋梨举赫恋营赢久宋偷哥毋整桑汲稠忧们寄店劈稳灿肤大豆期货09大豆期货09,Summary :,The price of soybean has raised for nearly a month. And in a short time
39、, it still will be raising.,喻倚肪猜注设某肮屡缚粪出非忘法亲保锡傅掂晋胺腿毅月芬阶训样缄仟饿大豆期货09大豆期货09,Advices :,First, you can buy long. Second, you can sell it in a short time and get the profit. Or sell short at the highest point which you think it is.,力臀粒狈河状损逢牛诧鹰顾氛岛岳撤烯相嗣惑贱喉芹毗我拐笨芭泻俭雨谨大豆期货09大豆期货09,Thank you !,羚磷毖潮筒霹先艺隘呐从柑睬亚财耙攘撅氟崭力叙些绕梨忆胡婿披能梳绰大豆期货09大豆期货09,
