1、经济学人选文2012.10.072012.10.09- 1 -2012.06.23 The laws of the city 城市定律A deluge of data makes cities laboratories for those seeking to run them better数据滚滚而来，各城市数据实验室正在研究如何利用好这些数据。Jun 23rd 2012 | from the print editionNO FACE looks alike, but human bodies and their genetic make-up are almost identical. C
2、ities too have distinctive charmsbut are surprisingly alike behind their facades. Regardless of size, their populations grow at the same average rate everywhere in the world. A city twice as large as its neighbour is likely to be 15% richer. The mix of green space and built-up areas tends to be equa
3、l everywhere.人类的长相是千人千面，绝少雷同。但人类的身体及基因结构却几乎一模一样。城市亦然如此。大大小小的城市看起来各具特色，风光迷人。但光鲜建筑的背后掩盖着各城市惊人的相似性。不考虑城市规模，世界各地城市的人口都以相同的平均速度在增长。一座城市的人口比邻近的城市多一倍，其富裕程度就很可能要高 15%。世界各地城市绿地与建成区的面积比也趋于相同。Such findings reflect a recent shift in urban research. Better technology has turned cities into fountains of data that
4、 confirm known regularities and reveal striking new patterns. This could transform how cities are regarded, built and managed. Attempts to contain urban sprawl, long the prevailing paradigm of urban planning, for instance, could fall out of favour. Cities could be run with the sort of finely tuned m
5、ix of technology and performance associated with Formula 1 racing cars.这样的发现反映了城市研究领域的最新动向。科学技术的不断进步使城市的相关数据如喷泉般大量涌出，这不仅深化了人们对城市运动已知规律的认识，而且产生了惊人的新发现，揭示出以往未知的城市运动规律。这些知识能够彻底改变人们看待城市的观念，改变城市建设和管理的方式。例如，长期以来城市规划流行的做法就是扩张城区面积，想要限制这种扩张的建议无法得到响应。城市管理本可以像一级方程式赛车那样，既有靓丽的外观，又有高科技的内涵，将二者很好地协调起来。Back in the 1
6、940s, George Zipf, an American researcher, noted that a citys population is inversely proportional to its rank in a country. His law holds that the largest city is always about twice as big as the second largest, three times as big as the third largest, and so on. Other regularities have emerged sin
7、ce. Big cities decentralise as they grow, creating more jobs outside the centre. Urban population density in all industrialised countries declines slowly as you move away from the centre. (Moscow, exceptionally, is the other way round.)早在上世纪 50 年代，一位美国研究人员乔治齐普夫（George Zipf）就注意到，一座城市的人口数量与这座城市在这个国家的排
8、列级别成反比。根据他提出的定律，最大城市的人口数量大约总是第二大城市人口数量的两倍，是第三大城市的 3 倍，这个规律可以一直顺沿下去。自这之后，城市运动的其它规律就不断被人们所发现。大城市在不断膨胀的过程中会产生离心现象，在城市中心区周围创造出更多的就业岗位。人们纷纷离开城市中心到城郊去就业，因而所有工业化国家的城区人口密度都缓慢下降了。经济学人选文2012.10.072012.10.09- 2 -The lack of good numbers used to limit such studies. Now data abound. The United Nations and other
9、organisations make most of their statistics freely available. Data have also become more comparable between cities and even between countries. Most important, transport and telecoms networks, and social media, are spawning new data as a free by-product.由于缺乏数据支持，以往这类研究受到了制约。而现在数据是取之不尽，用之不绝。联合国与其它国际组织
10、的大部分统计数据也可以供人们随意使用。利用这些数据还可以更方便地进行城市与城市，甚至是国与国的比较。最重要的是，交通运输、电信网络与大众媒体也在不断地孵化出新的数据。这些数据是它们在运作过程中产生的免费副产品。This has triggered new research. For instance Geoffrey West and Luis Bettencourt, both of the Santa Fe Institute, found that cities scale much like organisms. Just as an elephant is, roughly spea
11、king, a larger but more energy-efficient version of a gorilla, big cities are thrifty versions of small ones. For a metropolis twice the size of another, the length of electric cables, number of gas stations and other bits of infrastructure decrease by about 15% per inhabitant. But beasts do not enj
12、oy the cities rising returns to scale. Income, patents, savings and other signs of wealth rise by around 15% when a citys size doubles. In short, urbanites consume less but produce more.大量涌现的数据又触发了新的研究。例如，圣菲研究所（Santa Fe Institute）的杰弗里韦斯特（Geoffrey West）与路易斯贝特科特（Luis Bettencourt）就发现城市规模与生物非常相似。用一个不太恰当
13、的比喻吧，就像把大象看成是一头身材更大，更节省能量的大猩猩一样，大城市与小城市也非常相似，但消耗资源更少一些。一座大都市的规模是另一座的两倍，则每位居民所需的供电线路长度、加油站数量和其它一些基础设施都下降了约 15%。但动物们享受不到城市规模扩大则利益上升这样的好处。当一座城市的规模扩大一倍后，收入、专利、储蓄额及其它代表财富的数字都上升了约 15%。简而言之， （伴随城市规模的扩大， ）城市居民的消耗降低了，但产出却增加了。Shlomo Angel, an urban planning expert at New York University, gathered historical a
14、nd census data from hundreds of cities, digitised thousands of maps and had computers count millions of pixels on satellite pictures. Between 1990 and 2000 the surfaces of each of the 120 cities he and his team studied grew on average more than twice as fast as their populations. These rates, he say
15、s, are unlikely to change. That means that the amount of urban land will double in only 19 years, whereas the urban population will double in 43 years.什洛莫安吉尔（ Shlomo Angel）是纽约大学的一位城市规划专家。他搜集了数百座城市历年的人口普查数据，将上千幅地图进行了数字化处理，利用计算机对大量的卫星数字图片进行了计算。他与他的团队研究了 120 座城市，发现从 1990 年至 2000 年间，这些城市的城区面积扩张速度平均下来是其人
16、口增长速度的两倍。他说，这些数值不大可能改变。这就意味着在短短的 19 年间，城市占用的土地就增长了一倍。而城市人口要经过 43 年才增加 1 倍。Carlo Ratti, who heads the Senseable City Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was one of the first to sift through the data produced by telecoms networks. One aim was to find out how a countrys internal borders r
17、eflect human connections. In Britain the English and the Scots hardly talk, at least on landlines; west of London, where many of Britains high-tech firms are based, a new region is developing. American states such as Georgia and Alabama belong together, whereas California splits three ways. In Portu
18、gal, if a city is twice the size of another, people make 12% more phone calls per head. This gives weight to what urban theorists such as the late Jane Jacobs have 经济学人选文2012.10.072012.10.09- 3 -long argued: that cities foster the exchange of ideas.卡洛拉蒂（ Carlo Ratti）是麻省理工学院感知城市实验室（Senseable City Lab
19、）的负责人。他是对电信网络产生的数据进行筛选的开拓者之一。这样做的目的之一是要找出一个国家的内部边界如何影响人们通讯联系的规律。英格兰人与苏格兰人几乎不交谈，至少是不通过固定电话进行交谈。许多英国的高科技公司座落在伦敦西部，那里正在形成一个特征明显的新区域。在美国，佐治亚与亚拉巴马关系密切，而加利福尼亚则分裂成三块。在葡萄牙，如果一座城市的规模是另一座城市的两倍，则这座城市平均每位市民打电话的次数比另一座城市多 12%。这为诸如简 雅各布斯（Jane Jacobs）这类城市理论奠基人的观点提供了有力的证据。雅各布斯在晚年始终坚持这样的观点：城市促进了思想的交流。The Centre for A
20、dvanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at University College London, another research hotbed, uses data from Londons Oyster cardsused to pay for public transportand Twitter messages. Tube-travel patterns are regular: entering the system at one station tends to mean leaving it at a particular other one. Twi
21、tter messages reveal a citys structure and its activity. London has one centre, near Piccadilly Circus; New York has several, including near Times Square, City Hall and in Brooklyn. Tweeting correlates negatively with greenery, particularly in Central Park.伦敦大学学院（University College London）高级空间分析中心（C
22、entre for Advanced Spatial Analysis）是从事这项研究的另一家科研机构。该中心采集的数据来自用于乘坐公共交通付费的牡蛎卡（Oyster cards）和推特网的信息。市民乘坐地铁有规律可循：一个人从一个地铁站进入地铁常常意味着他会从另一个特定的站台出站。推特网的信息能揭示出一个城市的结构与状态。伦敦只有一个中心，这个中心位于皮卡迪利广场附近；而纽约有多个中心，包括时代广场附近的一个中心、市政厅附近的一个中心和位于布鲁克林区的一个中心。推特网的信息量与植被，特别是中央公园的植被状况呈负相关性。Some in the field are ambivalent abou
23、t such research. Practitioners of urban planning dont quite know what to do with the resultsparticularly regularities of the sort found by Mr West. Others worry that urban research could, just like other fields of study, start to put number-crunching ahead of other important questions. “A green pixe
24、l on a satellite image doesnt tell you whether its a park or a private garden,” argues Philipp Rode, of LSE Cities, a research centre at the London School of Economics.从事该领域研究工作的一些人对这样的研究心情矛盾。从事城市规划工作的专业人士不大知道如何利用这些研究成果，特别是韦斯特先生发现的那种很特别的规律。其它人则担心城市研究会像其它研究领域一样本末倒置，一头扎进数字的游戏中，而忘了还有其它重要的问题要研究。LSE Citi
25、es 是伦敦经济学院的一个研究中心，该中心的菲利普罗德（Philipp Rode）就认为：“从一张卫星照片的绿色像素点上无法得知这是一个公园还是一个私人花园。 ”Still, the deluge of urban data is likely to have a big impact. Some academics such as Michael Batty, the director of CASA, see a real prospect of synthesising these patterns and regularities into a “science of the city
26、”, much like physics or biology. That will be the subject of a conference at the Santa Fe Institute in July.然而，滚滚而来的城市数据可能还是会产生重大的影响。如高级空间分析中心主任迈克尔巴蒂（Michael Batty）这样的一些学者就认为，如同物理学与生物学一样，将这些模式与规律融合成一门“城市科学” ，这项研究就一定有广阔的前景。圣菲研究所定于七月份召开的一次学术研讨会，这个问题将成为此次研讨会的主题。经济学人选文2012.10.072012.10.09- 4 -City plann
27、ers, too, may have to rethink their work. If cities indeed develop organically along certain lines, pushing them onto another track may be futile. Instead of trying to limit growth, planners should “make room”, says Mr Angel: be realistic when projecting urban land needs, set generous metropolitan l
28、imits, protect some open space and provide an arterial grid of roads. This is pretty much what New York did in the early 18th century. It is what some Chinese cities are doing now.城市规划人员可能也需要反思他们的工作。如果城市确实是以生物体的方式沿着某种路径发展，那么强行将它们推入另一条发展轨道则很可能会劳而无功。安吉尔先生说，规划人员在做城市规划时，应该放弃限制城市扩张的想法，为城市的发展预留空间。在规划城市土地需
29、求时，实际可行的做法是将城市的未来边界设置的尽可能开阔一些。要预留出一些空地，并先期建设骨干公路网。这几乎就是 18 世纪早期规划纽约城时的做法。现在一些中国的城市也正在这样做。Yet the most immediate impact of urban data will be on how cities are managed. In a second research lab in Singapore, Mr Ratti and his colleagues are developing software to turn cities into what he calls “real-t
30、ime control systems”. These combine all kinds of data feeds, including information about the location of taxis and rainfall. The city states transport system would benefit from being better able to match the demand and supply of taxis, particularly when it rains, which tends to happen suddenly in Si
31、ngapore.然而城市数据产生的最直接影响是在城市管理方面。在位于新加坡的一个二级研究实验室里，拉蒂（Ratti）先生与他的同事们正在开发一套软件。目的是要将城市转化成他所称的 “实时控制系统”。这项工作需要收集各种反馈数据，包括本地出租车及降雨的信息。如果出租车的需求与供给能实现更好的匹配，特别是在下雨天，这个城市国家的交通系统将会得到大大改善。新加坡经常出现不期而至的降雨。Such examples raise one question: how will data change cities? To get an idea, look at how racing cars have c
32、hanged. Mechanics used to do all the fine-tuning on their vehicle before a race. Now they sit in front of big screens, monitoring the data that comes in from the hundreds of sensors attached to the carand make adjustments in real-time. One day city hall may be as packed with screens as a Formula 1 p
33、it.这样的例子又产生了一个问题：数据将如何改变城市？为了寻找答案，不妨看看赛车的变化过程。以往机械师们在比赛前要对赛车进行全面而精细的调整。而现在机械师们只需坐在一个大屏幕显示器前，监视着屏幕上出现的数据。这些数据由安装在赛车上的数百个传感器反馈而来。 （如果数据出现异常， ）就进行及时调整。也许有一天市政厅会变得跟 F1 赛车的维修站一样，到处都是大屏幕的显示器。2012.06.23 Player movement in basketball 篮球转会Blame the cap要怪就怪工资帽Jun 23rd 2012, 0:37 by D.R.THE coronation of King
34、Jamesas LeBron James (pictured, centre) calls himself on Twitterwas delayed, but in the end not denied. By common consent the worlds best basketball player, Mr James 经济学人选文2012.10.072012.10.09- 5 -was drafted with the first overall pick by his hometown Cleveland Cavaliershe grew up in nearby Akron,
35、Ohioshortly after he graduated high school in June 2003. He was a star from his very first game in the National Basketball Association (NBA) as an 18-year-old, and has won three Most Valuable Player awards. But just like Michael Jordan before him, who did not win a title until his seventh season in
36、the NBA, the sports ultimate achievement long eluded him.勒布朗詹姆斯（上图，中）在推特上 自称为皇帝，他的加冕礼虽然曾一度被延迟，但终于还是来了。詹姆斯被公认为是世界上最好的篮球运动员，他在 2003 年 6 月高中毕业没多久后就被自己故乡（他在俄亥俄州的艾克隆市长大）的克里夫兰骑士队以状元秀的身份选中。从他18 岁在 NBA 打的第一场比赛开始，他就已经是一位球星了，之后还拿下过三次最有价值球员称号。在他之前，迈克尔乔丹要等到进入 NBA 第七个赛季才拿下总冠军，和乔丹相仿，詹姆斯多年来追逐篮球运动最高荣耀的尝试总是无功而返。Mr J
37、ordans Chicago Bulls struggled early in his career. After three losing seasons, they advanced deep into the playoffs in 1987-88 and 1988-89, but lost in both years to the tough and balanced Detroit Pistons. Mr Jordan could not win a championship on his own. Fortunately for Chicago fans, the club eve
38、ntually acquired a Robin to his Batman in Scottie Pippen. In 1990-91 Mr Pippen emerged as a star in his own right, and the duo eventually won six titles together.乔丹的芝加哥公牛队在他职业生涯的早期处境艰难。在连续三个赛季输多胜少之后，他们最终于 1987-88 和 1988-89 赛季连续打入了季后赛，并在季后赛中走得很远， 但却两次都输给了作风强悍、实力平衡的底特律活塞队。乔丹无法凭借一己之力夺下总冠军。对于芝加哥的球迷来说幸运的
39、是，球队最终迎来了斯科蒂皮蓬，如同为蝙蝠侠找来了搭档罗宾。1990-91赛季皮蓬这位球星横空出世，二人协力最终共拿下六个总冠军。In contrast, the Cavaliers were never able to offer Mr James much of a supporting cast. They made the finals once in 2006-07, but lost. Rather than wait to see whom the team might eventually pair with him, Mr James took matters into his
40、 own hands. When his contract expired in 2010, he reached an agreement with two other free-agent stars, Dwyane Wade (left) and Chris Bosh (right), that the three would all sign with the Miami Heat. He announced his choice by declaring he was “going to take my talents to South Beach” on a special pro
41、gramme broadcast on ESPN called “The Decision”.相比之下，骑士队一直都无法为詹姆斯找来像样的支援阵容。他们在 2006-07 赛季打入了总决赛但最后却败北。詹姆斯并没有坐等球队为他寻来搭档，而开始把命运掌握到自己手中。2010 年，在詹姆斯的合同期满时，他和另两位自由人球星，德文韦德（图中左）和克里斯波什（图中右）达成共识，三人都和迈阿密热队签约。他在 ESPN 称之为决定的特别直播节目中宣布了他的这一选择，说道：“我将把我的才华带去南海滩”。Mr Jamess handling of his free agency was widely pann
42、ed, both as a betrayal of his Ohio roots and as an admission that he could not be the leader of a championship team. In an open letter to fans, the Cavaliers owner, Dan Gilbert, called Mr James “narcissistic”, “selfish”, “cowardly”, “disloyal” and “heartless”. Mr Gilberts sports memorabilia company
43、even reduced the price of some memorabilia featuring Mr James to $17.41, the birth year of Benedict Arnold, a notorious American traitor. But many of the sports eminences also criticised Mr James, even though they had no reason to feel personally jilted by him. Mr Jordan himself said there was “no w
44、ay, with hindsight, I wouldve ever called up Larry Bird, called up Magic Johnson and said, Hey, look, lets get together and play on one teamI was trying to beat those guys.”经济学人选文2012.10.072012.10.09- 6 -詹姆斯处理自己自由人去向的方式受到了多方批评。一方面，他的决定被看成是对家乡的背叛，另一方面，这也被看成是詹姆斯承认自己无法带领球队夺冠。在致球迷的一封公开信内，骑士队的老板丹吉尔伯特称詹姆斯
45、 “自恋”、 “自私” 、 “懦弱”、 “不忠”、 “无情” 。吉尔伯特经营的体育纪念品公司甚至把和詹姆斯有关的一些纪念品价格降到 17.41 美元。1741 年是臭名昭著的美国叛徒本尼迪克特阿诺德出生的年份。不过很多和詹姆斯没有个人恩怨的篮球名人也提出了批评。乔丹本人就说过“回头看，当年我完全不可能致电拉里伯德和魔术师约翰逊，和他们说嘿，听着，我们一起在一支球队打球吧 我所希望的是击败那些对手。 ”The Heat instantly became the favourites for the 2010-11 championship, and the bte noire of virtua
46、lly all basketball fans outside of southern Florida. They cruised through the regular season and the first three rounds of the playoffs. But in the finals they ran into a veteran Dallas Mavericks team, and Mr James all but disappeared. In the series final four games he averaged just 15.8 points (com
47、pared with 27 during the regular season). He was particularly absent during the final quarters of close contests. In the tight fourth quarters of the third, fourth and fifth games, he made just two of eight shotsneither with the game on the linewhile missing one that would have put Miami ahead with
48、five seconds left on the clock. He also committed six turnovers, repeatedly handing the ball over to Dallas in the games critical moments. The Mavericks won, four games to two.热队立刻成为了夺取 2010-11 赛季总冠军的最大热门，同时也成为了南佛罗里达州以外所有地区篮球迷的眼中钉。热队在常规赛和季后赛前三轮中一路顺风。但是在总决赛他们遇上了经验丰富的达拉斯小牛队，而詹姆斯在场上几乎可以说是消失不见了。在总决赛最后四场
49、比赛中他场均仅仅 15.8 分（常规赛他场均 27 分） 。在比分咬得很紧的几场比赛的关键时刻他的表现尤其差劲。在比分紧咬的第三、第四和第五场比赛的第四节，他仅仅 8 投 2 中，而且 2次都不是决定比赛走势的关键得分。同时他还投失了一个在比赛还剩 5 秒时可以让热队反败为胜的投篮。他也犯下 6 次失误，反复在比赛的关键时刻把球白白送到小牛队的手中。最终小牛队以总比分 4 比 2 获胜。Mr Jamess vanishing act seemed to satisfy NBA fans desire for schadenfreude. This season the Heat were seen as just one of many strong contenders for the title. They finished with the leagues fourth-best record, and needed the full seven games to dispatch a creaky Boston Celtics squad in order to reach the fin
