1、 有时候，我不是不理你，只是在等你先开口。 有时候，真的好想跟你讲话，但又很怕你嫌我烦。有时候，我只是需要一个可以说话的人。有时候，我真想你能懂我，即使我什么都不说。有时候，总有种想哭的冲动，却不知道为什么。有时候，我在乎的不是你所说的，而是那些你没有说的。【导读】2010 年以来，芝加哥大学教授 Richard Thaler 一直为“ 助推小组 ”（Nudge Unit）提供咨询，这是一个由英国政府组建的机构，旨在制定通过帮助公民做出更好的选择来提高公共福利的政策。该小组的名称来自于 Thaler 与哈佛法学院教授 Cass Sunstein 合著的助推：改进有关健康、财富和幸福的决策 （N
2、udge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness，耶鲁大学出版社， 2008 年 4 月）一书，该书将行为经济学思想运用到公共政策中。Thaler 和 Sunstein 指出，通过更加敏感地关注人类的行为倾向，政策制定者可以推动人民更多地储蓄、更好地投资、更明智地消费、使用更少的能源，以及更健康地生活。【译文】Free exchange自由交流专栏Nudge nudge, think think“助推”思考力推动政策调整The use of behavioural economics in public policy s
3、hows promise行为经济学在公共政策领域崭露头角Mar 24th 2012 | from the print edition“FREAKONOMICS” was the book that made the public believe the dismal science has something interesting to say about how people act in the real world. But “Nudge” was the one that got policy wonks excited. The book, first published in 2
4、008, is about the potential for behavioural economics to improve the effectiveness of government. Behavioural economists have found that all sorts of psychological or neurological biases cause people to make choices that seem contrary to their best interests. The idea of nudging is based on research
5、 that shows it is possible to steer people towards better decisions by presenting choices in different ways.是魔鬼经济学让公众开始相信，即使是经济这种沉闷的科学1也可以妙趣横生地解释人类在现实生活中的行为方式。然而真正让政策专家们激动不已的是一本叫做助推的书。这本书于 2008 年首次出版，内容有关行为经济学在改善政府工作效率方面的潜在作用。行为经济学家发现，心理上以及神经上的各种差异都会使人们做出与自身最佳利益相悖的选择。有调查研究显示，以不同的方式呈现出人们面临的选择，可能会驱使人们
6、做出更好的决策。在此基础上， “助推”的想法应运而生。That theory is now being put to the test. One of the books co-authors, Cass Sunstein, has been recruited by Barack Obama to the White House. Richard Thaler, the other co-author, has been advising policymakers in several countries including Denmark, France and, above all, B
7、ritain, where David Cameron has established a Behavioural Insights Team, nicknamed the Nudge Unit.这一理论目前正处于试验阶段。本书的合著作者之一卡斯桑斯特（Cass Sunstein）已被巴拉克奥巴马（Barack Obama）招揽到白宫工作。而另一位作者理查德 泰勒（Richard Thaler）正为一些国家的政策制定者出谋划策，其中包括丹麦，法国，而接受献计最多的当属英国政府，其首相戴维卡梅隆（David Cameron）已建立了一个行为学研究小组，绰号“ 助推小组”。In this sect
8、ion有所作为The Nudge Unit has been running dozens of experiments and the early results have been promising. In one trial, a letter sent to non-payers of vehicle taxes was changed to use plainer English, along the line of “pay your tax or lose your car”. In some cases the letter was further personalised
9、by including a photo of the car in question. The rewritten letter alone doubled the number of people paying the tax; the rewrite with the photo tripled it.“助推小组”一直以来进行了几十项试验，其早期研究收获颇丰。曾有一项试验对寄给未缴纳车辆税者的信件进行了改写，使用了类似“不交税就收车” 这样更为平直的语句。其中一些信件还更加“个性化地” 附上了该问题车辆的照片。仅改写而未附照片的信件使得缴税人数翻了一倍；而附有照片的改写信件则使缴税人数则
10、增为三倍。Changes to language have had marked effects elsewhere, too. A study into the teaching of technical drawing in French schools found that if the subject was called “geometry” boys did better, but if it was called “drawing” girls did equally well or better. Teachers are now being trained to use th
11、e appropriate term.除了催缴税款方面的作用之外，遣词造句的不同对其他领域也有所影响。一项关于法国学校里工程制图课程教学的研究表明，如果这门课被称为“几何学” ，男生会表现得更好，但如果被称作“绘画课 ”，那么女生则会表现得同样出色甚至更出色些。老师们目前正在接受培训，学习如何恰当地措辞。Another set of trials in Britain focused on energy efficiency. Research into why people did not take up financial incentives to reduce energy consu
12、mption by insulating their homes found one possibility was the hassle of clearing out the attic. A nudge was designed whereby insulation firms would offer to clear the loft, dispose of unwanted items and return the rest after insulating it. This example of what behavioural economists call “goal subs
13、titution”replacing lower energy use with cleaning out the atticled to a threefold increase in take-up of an insulation grant.此外， “助推小组 ”在英国还进行了一组关于能源效率的试验。隔热式住房在减少能源的消耗的同时还可以降低相关费用。然而人们为什么并不接受这种省钱的节能方法呢？研究发现，有一种可能是因为人们嫌清理阁楼太麻烦了。针对这个问题的助推方法是由隔热改造公司负责清理阁楼的工作，同时会帮客户处理掉他们的多余物品并在隔热改造结束后归还剩余物品。经济学家称这种心理现象
14、为“目标置换” 2，在此案例中人们不愿清理阁楼的心理代替了节约能源的考虑。在这个问题解决之后，同意进行隔热改造的人数增加为原来的三倍。All this experimentation is yielding insights into which nudges give the biggest shove. One question is whether nudges can be designed to harness existing social norms. In Copenhagen Pelle Guldborg Hansen, founder of the Danish Nudgi
15、ng Network, a non-profit organisation, tested two potential “social nudges” in partnership with the local government, both using symbols to try to influence choices. In one trial, green arrows pointing to stairs were put next to railway-station escalators, in the hope of encouraging people to take t
16、he healthier option. This had almost no effect. The other experiment had a series of green footprints leading to rubbish bins. These signs reduced littering by 46% during a controlled experiment in which wrapped sweets were handed out. “There are no social norms about taking the stairs but there are
17、 about littering,” says Mr Hansen.所有这些实验都会得出一些有意义的结论供助推者们大展拳脚。而一个值得注意的问题是，设计出来的助推计划是否能够充分利用现有的社会规范。 “丹麦助推网络” 这一非营利组织的创建者皮尔古德伯格汉森（Pelle Guldborg Hansen）曾与哥本哈根的当地政府合作，对两个“ 社会助推计划” 进行了试验，这两个计划均试图利用符号影响人们的选择。其中一项实验在地铁站自动扶梯处放置了指向楼梯的绿色箭头，旨在鼓励人们选择更加有益健康的楼梯。而这种做法几乎没什么效果。另一项试验则放置了一排通向垃圾桶的绿色脚印，并将带有包装的糖果作为控制变量
18、分发出去。结果显示，在设置了绿色脚印标志之后，乱扔这些糖纸的行为减少了 46%。 “社会规范并不涉及到走不走楼梯，但是涉及到乱扔垃圾， ”汉森先生说道。Differences in culture can have a big impact, too. “Nudge” described an example in America, where telling high users of energy how their consumption compared with that of their neighbours prompted them to use less. This appr
19、oach is now being tested in Britain. But hopes are low that it will work in France. “The French have a tendency not to comply as easily with perceived social norms the way Anglo-Saxons would,” says Olivier Oullier, a behavioural and brain scientist who advises the French government. “Telling someone
20、 in France that their neighbour is using less electricity or saving more water is not sufficient.”文化差异也会产生巨大的影响。 推动一书中提到这样一个案例，在美国，告知那些用电大户他们的用电高于一般住户能够促使他们减少用量。这种方法目前正在英国进行试验。然而若是放在法国，奏效的可能性很小。 “英国人很容易接受并遵守自我感知到的社会规范，而法国人一般不会这样， ”为法国政府出主意的行为学及大脑科学家奥利维尔欧莱尔（Olivier Oullier）说道。 “仅仅告诉一个法国人他的邻居用电更少或是节水更
21、多是没有什么说服力的。 ”Bigger tests of nudge theory are in the works. Organ donation is one area. In Denmark nudgers reckon that requiring members of the public to make a decision on whether to donatewhen applying for a driving licence, saywill forcibly overcome an inclination to procrastinate over unpleasant
22、 choices. That, they hope, would lead to many more people becoming organ donors. A bill to require this is now before the Danish parliament.有关推动理论的更大规模的试验正处在准备阶段。器官捐献是其中一个领域。在丹麦的推动者们认为，在一些场合下（例如申请驾驶执照时）要求人们做出是否捐献的决定将可以有效地克服由于不愉快的选择而带来的拖延症。推动者们希望，这样可以让更多的人成为器官捐献者。相关法案目前有待于丹麦议会的进一步讨论。Checking the box打
23、勾同意吧Others focus on the role that inertia plays in decision-making, and the tendency that people have to pick the default option in a range of choices. In October new British legislation will change the default option for corporate pension plans, so that employees are automatically enrolled unless t
24、hey actively choose to opt out. The hope is that this will significantly increase retirement saving. Mr Obama has proposed something similar for Americas 401(k) retirement schemes, although this idea has gained little traction.另外一些研究则关注于惰性对决策的影响，以及人们在面对众多选项时仍保持默认选项的一贯倾向。今年十月，英国将修订新法以改变企业养老金计划的默认选项，从
25、此雇员将被自动记录在养老金计划之列，除非有人主动选择退出。这一做法的目的在于显著提高退休救助金。奥巴马先生对美国的 401k 退休计划3做出了与英国相似的提议，尽管这一想法得到的支持甚微。It remains to be seen how the most promising trials of nudge theory can be scaled up. Critics of big government remain suspicious of nudging: Mr Sunstein used a recent essay in the University of Chicago Law
26、 Review to endorse its less inflammatory virtues of reducing the regulatory burden and increasing government transparency. And not every policy works as planned: Mr Oullier wants the European Union to test the anti-smoking warnings it puts on cigarette packets, for instance, after research found tha
27、t those who say they are most shocked by the more graphic images were also those who most craved a smoke after seeing them. But the initial signs are promising. If nothing else, the nudge revolution encourages the use by government of plain language; favours the design of policies that actually take
28、 account of real-world behaviour; and allows the testing of ideas on a small scale before wider implementation. It deserves to be pushed.助推理论下有一些试验相当靠谱，而至于如何将它们拓展应用于现实社会恐怕仍有待观察。大政府的评论家们对助推这种方式仍持怀疑态度。近期桑斯特先生在芝加哥法律评论发表了一篇文章，认为助推可以通过并不具有煽动性的方式减轻政府监管负担以及提高政府透明度，并对这种特点作出了高度认可。同时，并不是所有的政策都能起到预定的效果：例如，欧莱尔先
29、生希望欧盟可以对烟盒上反对吸烟的警告进行试验，因为有研究发现，那些自称看到形象的图案后内心震动最强烈的人恰恰是看完之后最想抽一口的人。但是大写的标志很有效果。综上简言之，这场助推革命鼓励政府使用更为平直的语言，青睐于在政策设计中切实考虑现实的行为模式，以及在某些想法广泛实施之前在小规模内进行试验。如此助推，何乐不为。from the print edition | Finance and economics 译者:刘思其原文出自经济学人杂志【附注】1dismal science（沉闷的科学）：出自托马斯 卡莱尔（Thomas Carlyle） ，他是苏格兰十九世纪著名的散文家、讽刺作家、历史学
30、家，曾称经济学为“沉闷的科学” （dismal science ） 。2goal substitution（目标置换）：在达成目标的过程中， “对于如何完成目标的关切，致使渐渐地让方法、技巧、程序、信息等问题占据了一个人的心思，反而忘了整个目标的追求”，换言之， “工作如何完成 ”逐渐代替了 “工作完成了没有”。这是实施目标过程中一种 “偏差”行为和“错位”现象，若不及时发现和矫正，必然影响目标的达成。3Americas 401(k) retirement schemes（401k 退休计划）：指美国 1978 年国内税收法第 401 条 K 项的规定。该条款适用于私人公司，为雇主和雇员的养老金存款提供税收方面的优惠。该计划是美国最为普遍的就业人员退休计划，该计划的受惠者主要是私人企业的雇员，2011 年美国 60%接近退休年龄的家庭拥有 401k 退休计划。
