1、Will Chinese Stock Markets Mirror the Behaviour of the NASDAQ?,-Where is the solution?,Christopher Poll Chairman, Greater China Consultancy Ltd.,3 QUESTIONS RAISED,HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET”? WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO? IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE
2、STOCK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?,HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET”?,The Financial Markets are Dynamic,Business is “Proactive” But Regulators are “Reactive” not “Proactive The System of Regulation and Enforcement can never be completely Flexible and Dynamic Importance of Fid
3、uciary Responsibility,Financial Infrastructure MAIN FACTORS FOR FUNDS,Government,Financial Policemen,Institutional Managers,Centred aroundPublic Investors,PRIVATE SECTOR,Lawyers,Accountants,Investment Bankers,Stock Brokers,Commercial Banks,Conflict of Interest?,Conflict of Interest,Who is the client
4、? Who are the Financial Policeman Responsible to? Can Regulation be Protect with Financial Policemen being Proactive?,INVESTORS,Institutional,Private,Pensions,Insurance,Mutual Funds,Investors Confidence = Investors Education,Confidence,Education,I n v e s t o r s,Investor Protection/Confidence,Easie
5、r and more effective enforcement. Increased efficiency reduces costs. Improved flexibility of the infrastructure to respond effectively and competitively.,Efficient Infrastructure Transparency Accountability,Leads to:,A Chinese Tailor Made Solution for the Chinese Fund Industry,WHAT RELEVANCE A PRIC
6、E/EARNINGS RATIO?,Chinese Quoted Stocks Corporate Profits ?,NASDAQ Corporate Profits ?,Confidence,$,1995 - 2000,C,$,IF CONFIDENCE IS LOW,THEN MONEY FLOW IS MINUTE,CONFIDENCE,$,IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH,THEN MONEY FLOW IS LARGE,What is the Criteria For Investing?,1. What do you think is the most importan
7、t influence on the stock market in China today?,The historic balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of the quoted companies- 6 The future prospects for corporate earnings-10 Government policy-62Govt. investigation into mal practices15 The overall economic growth of the Chinese economy-27 Chinas
8、 entry into the WTO-8,2. How do you as an investor analyse the fair value of the companies you buy & sell?,By price earnings ratio-35 By relationship to net asset vale-5 By the latest rumour-58 By the business sector the company is involved in-21 By multiple of sales revenue-9,3. What do you think s
9、hould be the average prospective price earnings ratio for non-technology stocks?,under 15 times-015 to 25 times-18above 25-110,4. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio?,under 15 times-015 to 25 times-125 to 50-16over 50-111,5. How do you measure investment risk?,By
10、 measuring the volatility of the stock-31 By measuring the volatility of the stock market-42 By estimating the accuracy of disclosed information-16 By estimating the risk of fraud-17 By analysing historic returns-13 By comparing with and adjusting for a “risk free“ measure such as a deposit rate-8,A
11、t what level do you think the Shanghai A share market will be on 31st December 2001?,most think it will be above 2500 Today it is 2140,At what level do you think the Shanghai B share market will be on 31st December 2001?,most think it will be above 200 Today it is 183,IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A ST
12、ABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?,Factors Effecting Investment Time Horizons,Confidence in Long Term Trends Confidence in Information Disclosure Volatility of Markets Liquidity of Markets Profit Forecast Public Scrutiny of Performance,EACM 100: Equal Weigh
13、ted (Rebalanced Annually) Index of Hedge Fund Indices described on Previous Slide,China versus Western Markets,Limited sense of AccountabilityLittle Understanding of Risk Chinese Business PhilosophyReluctance to Incentivise Executive Managers,Entrepreneurs Understand Cause & Consequence Risk is Fully Understood Shareholder Accountability is accepted Share Options and Profit Incentives,FUND COMPANY,REGULATOR,POLICEMEN,FUND,CUSTODIAN,BENEFICIARY CERTIFICATE,INVESTORS,ASSETS,MONEY,Basic Concept of Funds as an Investment Vehicle,
