1、毕 业 设 计（论 文）上市公司财务预警问题研究上市公司财务预警问题研究摘要近年来，我国经济发展趋于平稳，经济增速逐渐回落，这种经济增长的放缓方式比实际社会预期的放缓更为明显。针对于此，我国采取了一系列的调整政策，来调整宏观经济的走向，例如转变经济发展方式、加快结构调整等。与此同时，我国对外贸易受到外需低迷、出口不振、国际金融危机的影响还在发酵；而国内消费动力不足、投资需求不旺，资源、环境、劳动力供给等约束强化，使得企业经营成本上升，资金紧张，市场需求疲软，利润下降。大部分公司由于财务上的危机而陷入困难经营的状况之中，经营上带来的困境导致许多企业公司破产，其例子更是不胜枚举。上市公司管理者、经
2、营者这些利益主体如何事先识别潜在风险，进而分析风险达到控制风险的目的，对公司未来的发展意义越来越重大。基于这样的一种管理者的需求上和研究背景下，本文选择财务预警问题研究，既有迎合管理者经营需求的现实意义，又有丰富财务预警内容的理论意义。财务预警系统不仅能辅助企业预测、防范财务风险和危机、还能保护企业的实际掌权者投资人和债权人的合法权益；还有助于维护社会的稳定和经济的正常运行，给上市公司的良性发展创造一个良性的发展环境。而现实情况是，我国上市公司正在面临着财务状况不佳和 ST 公司、ST 股票占比过高双重压力，建立财务预警模型对我国上市公司的发展是形势所趋的。本文以现有学者的相关文献为理论基础，
3、分别阐述了国内外关于风险预警的研究现状，在此基础上，对财务预警系统中的相关概念进行界定，同时分析了财务预警系统的功能、预警过程和研究方法，进一步分析了我国上市公司中对财务风险预警的应用现状，以及出现这种现状的原因，第四部分分析了如何构建预警系统，构建的原则，并就如何设计预警系统给出建议，最后就本文的研究内容给出结论。关键词：上市公司；财务预警；预警模型：财务风险论文类型：应用型Analysis of Financial Warning in Listed CompanyAbstractIn recent years, Chinas economic development has stabil
4、ized, economic growth gradually fell, this economic growth is slowing down approach is more apparent than real social expectations of a slowdown. In light of this, China has taken a series of adjustment policies, to adjust the macro-economic trends, such as the transformation of economic development
5、 mode, accelerate structural adjustment. At the same time, Chinas foreign trade was sluggish external demand, sluggish exports, the impact of the international financial crisis is still fermenting; and domestic consumption lack of motivation, investment demand weak, resources, environment, labor sup
6、ply constraints strengthening, making business costs rise, funding constraints, weak demand, falling profits.Because of the crisis and plunged into financial difficulty operating conditions, the plight of the business has led many enterprises go bankrupt, and examples are too numerous. How does the
7、listed company managers, the operators, and the stakeholders identify potential risks in advance, and then analyze the purpose of risk, and then achieve controlling the risk successfully , are increasingly important for the future development of great companies. Based on such a demand of manager and
8、 research background, this is the practical and theoretical significance of choosing Financial Early Warning System of this paper.Financial early warning system will not only assist companies predict, prevent financial risks and crises, but also protect the actual rulers companies - legitimate right
9、s and interests of investors and creditors; also helps to maintain social stability and the normal operation of the economy, to create a healthy environment for the listed companies healthy development. The actual situation of Chinas listed companies is that poor financial situation, ST company and
10、ST shares accounted for the large, therefore, Chinas listed companies to establish financial early warning model is the trend of the situation. In this paper, use the existing academic literature as the theoretical basis, state the present status of risk warning at home and abroad respectively , on
11、this basis, defining the relevant concepts in the financial early warning system, and analyzes the function of financial early warning system, early warning process and research methods, make further analysis of the application status of Chinas listed companies in the financial risk warning, as well
12、 as reasons for this situation, the fourth part analyzes the principles of how to build early warning systems, give recommend on how to design early warning systems.Finally conclusions on research contents.Keywords：Listed Company；Financial Warning ； Warning ModelPaper Type：Application research目录1 引言
13、 .31.1选题的目的和意义31.1.1选题背景31.1.2选题的意义31.2国内外研究现状31.2.1国内研究现状31.2.2国外研究现状32 财务预警系统研究 .32.1财务风险32.1.1风险的含义32.1.2财务风险的含义32.1.3财务风险的特征32.2财务预警32.2.1预警的含义32.2.2财务预警的含义32.3 财务预警系统的功能 .32.4 财务预警系统的过程 .32.5 财务预警系统的分析方法 .32.5.1定性分析方法32.5.2定量分析方法33.我国上市公司财务预警现状分析 .33.1上市公司财务危机现状33.1.1上市公司财务危机界定33.1.2我国上市公司财务危机现状33.2我国上市公司财务预警工作现状33.3我国财务预警现状
