1、eLearnings Many Faces, Issues, and Potential,Richard Cornell Professor Emeritus University of Central Florida,Forecast for 20262026年预测,eLearning now ubiquitous across the world challenges related to rapid change differing technology formats greater access当今世界，数字化学习无处不在 迅速变革，迎来挑战 不同的技术形式 更大的准入空间,Some
2、 current trends 当前的一些趋势,Increased use of group processes to achieve mastery learning Social discourse Use of systemized software, Blackboard, WebCT, Elluminate Require considerable upfront investment 为了达到掌握学习的效果，越来越多的使用群体过程 社会讨论 应用系统化的软件: Blackboard, WebCT, Elluminate 需要大量的预先投资,New resources now ava
3、ilable目前可用的资源,Open source providers 开放资源提供者 Free and available 免费与可用 Linex MSN Yahoo Skype,Others,Cell phones 手机 PDAs, Blackberry 掌上电脑，黑莓手机 I-Pods, Pod Casts 苹果播放器，,The sources 参考资料,The Future of the Internet II 未来因特网 2 (Anderson, Rainey, et al, 2006), andThe Aspen Symposium 2005: Exploring the Futu
4、re of Higher Eduction (Devlin, et al,2006). Cornell, R.A. eLearnings Many Faces, Issues, and Potential (2006-2010). eLearning的多面性,The Pew Charitable Trust皮尤慈善信托基金会,Eight Scenarios 8个方面,1. A global, low-cost network thrives 全球化、低成本的网络迅速发展,By 2020, worldwide network interoperability will be perfected,
5、 allowing smooth data flow, authentication and billing; 2020年，世界范围内的网络互动将进一步完善，数据流通畅通无阻，能够进行鉴权和计费mobile wireless communications will be available to anyone anywhere on the globe at an extremely low cost. 人们能够在全球任何地方以极低的价格使用无线移动通讯 Agreed 56% Disagreed 43% Did not respond 1% 56%的人赞成，43%的人反对，1%的人无回应,Ed
6、ucators Response教育者的反应,How widespread will this global network be, who administers the interoperability policies, how will such data flow be made smooth, who authenticates and bills the user, and what types of infrastructure will be required to reach these untold billions of users?这一全球性的网络能够覆盖多大范围？谁
7、负责互动性政策？怎样才能保证数据流通畅通无阻？谁负责用户鉴权和计费？什么样的基础设施能够满足未来数十亿的用户的需求？ We also celebrate the possibilities, assuming that the goals might be reached. 如果上述目标都能实现，我们也非常高兴。,2. English displaces other languages英语取代其他语言,In 2020, networked communications level the world into one big political, social and economic spa
8、ce in which people everywhere can meet and have verbal and visual exchanges regularly, face-to-face, over the internet. 2020年，网络通讯迅速发展，人类世界将进入一个大的 政治、社会和经济空间，世界各地的人们都可以通过网络见面、面对面的进行视频和音频交流。English will be so indispensable in communicating that it displaces some languages. 在彼此交流中，英语是如此必不可少，以至于取代某些语言。
9、 Agreed 42% Disagreed 57% Did not respond 1% 同意42% 不同意57% 无回应1%,Educators Response教育者的反应,At least four issues give cause to speculate what language will be the one that eventually could concievably replace English (Chinese, Spanish, Arabic?) 至少四件事情需要深思：哪种语言最后能够取代英语（汉语、西班牙语、阿拉伯语？） Will a universal sy
10、nchronous electronic translation system evolve by 2020 that makes language speificity irrelevant? 2020年，会不会出现一种通用的电子同声传译系统，打破语言障碍,Educators Response教育者的回应,If one of the emergent target languages does begin to dominate, will language educators be prepared to teach them? 如果某种新兴的语言开始占据主导地位，语言教育者会进行相关的教
11、学吗？Will elder citizens, those academically challenged, and those with physical disablements be able to learn such languages or to use such sophisticated translation programs? 老年人、文化程度较低的人、残疾人能学习这些语言或者使用复杂的翻译程序吗？,3. Autonomous technology is a problem自动技术所带来的问题,By 2020, intelligent agents and distribu
12、ted control will cut direct human input so completely out of some key activities such as surveillance, security and tracking systems that technology beyond our control will generate dangers and dependencies that will not be recognized until it is impossible to reverse them. We will be on a “J-curve”
13、 of continued acceleration of change. 2020年，智能代理和分散控制将会完全排斥一些关键活动的人类指令，例如在监控、安全和追踪系统中，一旦技术超出了人类的控制范围，将会产生危险并且造成对技术的依赖，并且直到这些后果无法逆转时候才会被人们意识到。我们将会以”J型曲线“的模式继续加速变化。Agreed 42% Disagreed 54% Did not respond 4% 同意42%不同意54 无回应4%,Educators Response教育者的回应,While a majority of those polled felt that autonomou
14、s technology systems will over run society (shades of Hal), many feel that we are already well along the path toward handing over control to intellegent systems, thus ensuring that human foibles will not destroy “progress in the making.” 当大多数投票者认为自动化技术将超出社会运行时，许多人认为我们已经开始将控制权转交给智能系统，因此，必须确保人类的弱点不要毁掉
15、目前的进步 Is Orwells 1984 already enveloping our society or nearing to do so. What can eEducators do to reverse or control such “progress?” Orwells 1984 是否已经涵盖了我们社会或者几乎涵盖了我们社会？数字化教育者应该采取什么措施才能扭转局势或者控制这样的发展？,4. Transparency builds a better world, even at the expense of privacy全球范围内人与人之间的透明性必将促进世界变得更美好，甚至
16、能够彻底打破人与人之间的界限,As sensing, storage and communication technologies get cheaper and better, individuals public and private lives will become increasingly “transparent” globally. Everything will be more visible to everyone, with good and bad results. Looking at the big picture - at all of the lives aff
17、ected on the planet in every way possible - this will make the world a better place by the year 2020. The benefits will outweigh the costs. 随着认知、存储和通讯技术的发展以及成本的降低，个体的公众和私人生活将会在全球范围内日益透明。一切对大家来说将会越来越透明，这对人们来说既有有利的一面，也有不利的一面。纵观全局-世人无处不受影响，2020年，世界将会变得更加美好。利将会大于弊。 Agreed 46% Disagreed 49% Did not respo
18、nd 5% 同意46% 不同意49% 无反应5%,Educators Response教育者的回应,Many disagreed with this “better world” being built. Yet, examine the spreading popularity of “Facebook,” “My Space” and other such programs to see that increasingly, citizens (at least you younger ones) have little hesitation about sharing details t
19、hat few of their parents would ever think of revealing. 许多人不同意“世界将会更美好”。调查“Facebook,My Space”和其他程序的流行度， 人们（至少是年轻人）毫不犹豫分享的东西都是他们的父母从来不曾想过的。 Can educators instill in their students the wisdom of being oneself without the need to share every detail of their existence? What of cultures that decry such s
20、elf-promotion? What of the increasing spam that glorifies/deifies the individuals rights over those of society at large? 教育者能够给他们的学生灌输坚持自我、不向其他人分享生活细节的思想吗？哪种文化反对这种自促行为？哪些信息支持个人的权利高于社会的权利？,5. Virtual reality is a drain for some虚拟现实是带动事物发展的链条,By the year 2020, virtual reality on the internet will allo
21、w more productivity from most people in technologically-savvy communities than working in the “real world.” But the attractive nature of virtual reality worlds will also lead to serious addiction problems for many, as we lose people to alternate realities. 2020年，与现实世界相比，网上的虚拟现实将会促进技术型社区的人们产生更高的生产率。但
22、是，虚拟现实世界的吸引力也会造成许多人上瘾 的严重问题，这些人将会失去改造现实的机会。 Agreed 56% Disagreed 39% Did not respond 5%,Educators Response教育者的回应,While a majority of respondents felt virtual reality, with its many attendant variations, was a positive aspect of our wired future, educators are also well aware of the explosion of gami
23、ng, simulated realities, and see, in such innovations, other sides to such a bright future.尽管回应者多种多样，但是大部分回应者都认为虚拟现实对我们的数字化未来来说具有积极的意义，教育者也意识到了游戏的风靡和虚拟现实的风靡，并且发现了革新中有利于未来发展的其他方面。 They see students coming to school weary from lack of sleep, the previous night having been spent engaged in mutual elect
24、ronic gaming in nether worlds that represent graphic images, elevated sound levels, and dischordance at every turn.他们发现学生来学校时非常疲惫，因为缺少睡眠，前一天晚上花费大量时间沉溺于电脑游戏。,Educators Response,Nowhere was there mention of the potential for Virtual Reality experimentation, left unsupervised, to wreak mental havoc on
25、those with psychotic illnesses. To get a look at one intriguing example, go to a program called Second Life: http:/ I went there recently, and took on a whole new persona as Ruicha Taiyang.关于虚拟现实的试验的潜力，目前还没有人提到过，并且缺少监管，结果给有精神疾病的人带来精神灾难。请以第二生活的项目为例： http:/ Taiyang,Yes, there are medical possibilities
26、, those related to military and/or corporate gaming and simulation that, in their own virtual worlds, are making massive strides within those arenas. Educators need to become familiar with the many aspects of this form of program so they can better guide their learners, one way or another. 的确，虚拟现实具有
27、一定的 医疗价值 ，那些跟军事、公司游戏和模拟有关的虚拟现实在他们各自的竞技场内引领了当今的主流。教育者需要熟悉程序的各个方面，这样教育者能够以各种方式更好的指导学习者。,6. The internet opens worldwide access to success 网络打开了通往成功的世界之门,In the best-seller The World is Flat, Thomas Friedman writes that the latest world revolution is found in the fact that the power of the internet mak
28、es it possible for individuals to collaborate and compete globally. 在最畅销的书世界是平的中， Thomas Friedman 认为最新的世界性变革是在网络使人们在全球范围内互相合作和竞争的形式下出现的。 By 2020, this free flow of information will completely blur current national boundaries as they are replaced by city-states, corporation-based cultural groupings a
29、nd/or other geographically diverse and reconfigured human organizations tied together by global networks. 2020年，信息的自由流通将会完全打破现在的国界，国界将由城邦、以公司为基础的群体和其他不同地区的以及改组的人类组织所取代，这些组织都由全球化的网络所联结。 Agreed 52% Disagreed 44% Did not respond 5%,Educators Responses教育者的回应,Agreement increased when the respondents rela
30、ted internet use to development and operation of business and industry, as well as by governments. Being a long-time reader of Friedmans writings, I have seen the light through his reportage from around the globe. I have also seen his words of caution, especially of late as seen in his New York Time
31、s columns, that global access to technology does not automatically beget peace, harmony, or financial success. Educators who follow Friedmans writing seem favorably impressed with his objectivity, clarity of expression, and often caustic commentary. He is a refreshing voice in an otherwise media-bli
32、tzed world. 如果回应者将网络用做 商业和工业的开发与运作联系到一起，那么政府间将产生更多的合作。我本人一直就是Friedman的忠实读者，世界各地都有他的报告文学，我从他的作品中看到了光明、看到了他的斟字酌句，尤其是在后期的纽约时报中，全球通往技术的道路并没有到，自动带来和平、和谐或者金融繁荣。那些追随他的教育者被他的客观、表达的清晰和经常是刻薄的评论所深深折服。他是不同的媒体闪击的世界里的新声。,7. Some Luddites/Refuseniks will commit terror acts一些保守分子会采取一些过激行为,By 2020, the people left b
33、ehind (many by their own choice) by accelerating information and communications technologies will form a new cultural group of technology refuseniks who selfsegregate from “modern” society. Some will live mostly “off the grid” simply to seek peace and a cure for information overload while others wil
34、l commit acts of terror or violence in protest against technology. 2020年，由于迅速发展的信息和通讯技术而落后的人（许多人自我选择的）可能会建立一个反对技术进步的文化团体，这部分人将自我脱离“先进”的社会。一些人将会远离社会而生存，只是为了寻求安宁、避免信息负载，而另外一部分人将会采取过激行为来反对技术应用。Agreed 58% Disagreed 35% Did not respond 7%,Educators Response,The Pew respondents saw the potential for chaos
35、 and terrorism run amuck as they fomented about the potential for technology to fall into the hands of those bent on revenge, hatred, seeking power, or simply needing to destroy what “man hath wrought.” 少数回应者看到了混乱和恐怖主义混乱的潜在可能，因为他们担心先进的技术有可能会落到复仇心切、仇恨心理、争夺权力、或者只是想毁掉人类创造的文明的破坏分子手中。 There appears to be
36、 a growing sense of concern that, with minimal technological know-how, those intending to destroy technological infrastructures can have their way with little chance of discovery. 越来越多的人开始关心：那些想要毁坏技术设施的人只有很少技术知识，几乎没有进步。,Educators Response,Over the past decade or less, there has been ample evidence o
37、f such destructive behaviors. Educators have a clear responsibility to teach coping skills to their students, who can be objective in their assessment of such potential dangers, and offer psychological intervention that hopefully will sustain their students during such times of crisis. 过去几十年已经充分见证了这
38、种破坏机器的行为。通过测试，对于那些具备这些潜在危险的学生，教育者有责任教他们学会相关的处理技术，并且提供相关的心理干预，帮助学生度过困难时期。 As Americans discovered, they simply girded themselves against future events like 9-11 by continuing living much of their day in ways that allowed them to function.根据美国人的发现，他们把自己束缚起来，准备跟未来类似于911的事件斗争，每天以这样的心理度过大部分时间。,Educators
39、Comment,The severity of how things are was articulated by Ronald Sugar, CEO of Northrup Grumman on October 24th when he noted that “.converntional wars as we knew them, such as in World War I, World War II, and into the Cold War era have changed.we are now in a period of information warfare (Sugar,
40、2006).” 格鲁曼公司的总裁Ronald Sugar分析了事情的严峻性，他说：现在的战争形式与过去的传统战争，例如，一战、二战、冷战不同，我们现在的战争是一场信息战。,8. We asked a separate question about setting priorities for future investments in communications technology. 一个关于未来信息技术投资优先性的问题,Most respondents identified building network capacity and technological literacy as t
41、he first or second priority for policy makers and technology leaders to pursue. 大多数回应者把建立网络的能力和技术素养作为政策制定者和技术领导者需要优先考虑的首要的或者次要的因素。Another top priority was the creation of a “legal and operating environment that allows people to use the internet the way they want, using the software they want.” 另一个需要
42、优先考虑的因素是创造合法的运营环境，使人们能够自由的使用网络和软件。,Scenario 8 Continued 第八方面的后续部分,Respondents were asked: If you were in charge of setting priorities about where to spend the available funds for developing information and communications technologies (predominantly the internet) to improve the world, how would you r
43、ank order the following international concerns?回应者曾被问到：为了促进世界进步，如果你负责规定哪些事情需要优先投入资金开发信息和通讯技术，那么你打算怎样为以下国际关心的问题排序？Respondents said building network capacity and technological knowledge should be top priority. Setting Priorities for Development of Global Information & Communication Technologies 回应者认为建
44、立网络能力和技术知识应该是首要考虑的问题。首先考虑全球信息通讯技术的发展。,Educators Response,Given that the majority of those responding seemed to be representative of business and industry/government, it is not surprising that building network capacity won out as being their top priority. It was encouraging to note that building tech
45、nological literacy was right up there with that first priority. 如果大多数回应者都代表商业、工业或者政府，那么建立网络的能力成为首选是必然的。而且普及技术知识也是需要优先考虑的事情。,Educators Response,Some nations now require that basic computing skills be integral to what is taught in schools from early elementary years on to high school and adult educati
46、on. Others have been too absorbed with more fundamental concerns for their populace.such as providing food, clothing, housing, and medical care. 一些国家现在要求及计算机技术成为早期学校基础教育的内容，并将其延伸到高中和成人教育中。其他已经被集中关注了，例如提供食物，衣服，住房和医疗等 Indeed, while we laud UNESCOs Education for All and concern for equity of access, th
47、e idea of setting up a computer center in impoverished areas of the world has taken a back seat with survival being paramount. Guess it comes down to a matter of priorities. Teachers in both developed and lesser developed nations have to continually answer the questions of their students those who h
48、ave and those who have not.的确，我们支持联合国的全民教育和教育公平， 但是在一些贫穷地区建立计算机中心只能在解决生存问题后才能实现。所以这还是一个关于优先因素的问题。无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，教师都必须不断的回答学生的问题。,Comments from the Aspen Symposium 2005,On a global scale, the level of academic inequality is staggering. More than 1 billion people are living in extreme poverty in the w
49、orld today.全球范围教育不公是惊人的 。大约有10亿人过着极端贫困的生活。Approximately 8 million people will die this year because they are simply too poor to get the basics they need to stayalive (Devlin, p. ix) 今年大约有800万人会因为过度贫穷而死亡。,Educators Comment,It is the authors belief that this single statement should set the tone for any discussion we might have related to the integration of emerging technologies in education globally.笔者相信这次演讲代表了全球教育界所有关于新兴技术整合讨论的基本观点。,Educators Obserrvation,
