1、核准通过，归档资料。未经允许，请勿外传！投资分析计算题:1某地区甲商品的销售与该地区人口数有关，1988 到 2000 年的相关数据如下表，若该地区2001 年人口数可达到 56.9 万人，问届时甲商品的销售量将达到多少（概率 95%）？ 年份 销售量(万件) 人口数(万人) 年份 销售量(万件) 人口数(万人)1988 3.5 42.1 1995 11.1 48.41989 4 43 1996 10.3 49.31990 4.1 44.5 1997 11.8 50.91991 6.3 45.5 1998 11.8 52.51992 7.5 46.3 1999 12.6 54.11993 7.
2、3 47.1 2000 13.1 55.81994 10 47.9 此题是时间序列，可以运用简单线性回归建立回归方程，对未来进行预测，并估计置信区间。第一步利用最小二乘法原理 估计一元线性回归方程的回归参数，得 =28.897 ， =0.7795建立的回归模型 第二步运用上述建立的回归方程，代入 2001 年人口数 X 56.9 万人，求解 2001 年 的点预测值15.46 万件。第三步利用 的区间预测，设置显著性水平 ，运用公式计算置信区间，得到区间预测值 12.3 万件18.6 万件。2某厂商拟投资某项目生产 A 产品，根据市场调查和预测知，该厂商面临的需求曲线，总成本函数为 ，试确定该
3、项目的保本规模、盈利规模和最佳规模。 解题思路 利用销售收入与产品成本的关系，构建利润函数 ，运用求极值的方法计算项目的保本规模等值。第一步利用销售收入函数和生产总成本函数，构造利润函数 销售收入函数：生产总成本函数：利润函数：9JWKffwvG#tYM*Jg May be back in the past, to oneself the paranoid weird belief disillusionment, these days, my mind has been very messy, in my mind constantly. Always feel oneself should
4、 go to do something, or write something. Twenty years of life trajectory deeply shallow, suddenly feel something, do it.一字开头的年龄已经到了尾声。或许是愧疚于自己似乎把转瞬即逝的很多个不同的日子过成了同一天的样子；或许是追溯过去，对自己那些近乎偏执的怪异信念的醒悟，这些天以来，思绪一直很凌乱，在脑海中不断纠缠。总觉得自己似乎应该去做点什么，或者写点什么。二十年的人生轨迹深深浅浅，突然就感觉到有些事情，非做不可了。The end of our life, and can me
5、et many things really do? 而穷尽我们的一生，又能遇到多少事情是真正地非做不可？ During my childhood, think lucky money and new clothes are necessary for New Year, but as the advance of the age, will be more and more found that those things are optional; Junior high school, thought to have a crush on just means that the real g
6、rowth, but over the past three years later, his writing of alumni in peace, suddenly found that isnt really grow up, it seems is not so important; Then in high school, think dont want to give vent to out your inner voice can be in the high school children of the feelings in a period, but was eventua
7、lly infarction when graduation party in the throat, later again stood on the pitch he has sweat profusely, looked at his thrown a basketball hoops, suddenly found himself has already cant remember his appearance. Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted. r plays an important role in this
8、mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will c
9、limb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause),e can expect a lot of turbulence. We often cl
10、ose ourselves off when traumatic events happen in our lives; instead of letting the world soften us, we let it drive us deeper into ourselves. We try to deflect the hurt and pain by pretending it doesnt exist, but although we can try this all we want, in the end, we cant hide from ourselves. We need
11、 to learn to open our hearts to the potentials of life and let the world soften us.生活发生不幸时，我们常常会关上心门；世界不仅没能慰藉我们，反倒使我们更加消沉。我们假装一切仿佛都不曾发生，以此试图忘却伤痛，可就算隐藏得再好，最终也还是骗不了自己。既然如此，何不尝试打开心门，拥抱生活中的各种可能，让世界感化我们呢？ Whenever we start to let our fears and seriousness get the best of us, we should take a step back an
12、d re-evaluate our behavior. The items listed below are six ways you can open your heart more fully and completely.当恐惧与焦虑来袭时，我们应该退后一步，重新反思自己的言行。下面六个方法有助于你更完满透彻地敞开心扉。Whenever a painful situation arises in your life, try to embrace it instead of running away or trying to mask the hurt. When the sadness
13、 strikes, take a deep breath and lean into it. When we run away from sadness thats unfolding in our lives, it gets stronger and more real. We take an emotion thats fleeting and make it a solid event, instead of something that passes through us.当生活中出现痛苦的事情时，别再逃跑或隐藏痛苦，试着拥抱它吧；当悲伤来袭时，试着深呼吸，然后直面它。如果我们一味逃
14、避生活中的悲伤，悲伤只会变得更强烈更真实悲伤原本只是稍纵即逝的情绪，我们却固执地耿耿于怀 By utilizing our breath we soften our experiences. If we dam them up, our lives will stagnate, but when we keep them flowing, we allow more newness and greater experiences to blossom.深呼吸能减缓我们的感受。屏住呼吸，生活停滞；呼出呼吸，更多新奇与经历又将拉开序幕。序号 名称 规格型号 单位 数量 备注一 制冷系统1 压缩机组
15、 4AV10 台 42 冷凝器 LN-70 台 13 贮氨器 ZA-1.5 台 14 桶泵组合 ZWB-1.5 台 15 氨液分离器 AF-65 台 16 集油器 JY-219 台 17 空气分离器 KF-32 台 18 紧急泄氨器 JX-108 台 19 冷风机 KLL-250 台 810 冷风机 KLD-150 台 411 冷风机 KLD-100 台 212 阀门 套 8613 电磁阀 套 614 管道及支架 吨 18.615 管道及设备保温 m3 2216 管道保温包扎 镀锌板 吨 1.617 附件 套 1二 气调系统1 中空纤维制氮机 CA-30B 台 12 二氧化碳洗涤器 GA-15 台 13 气动电磁阀 D100 台 144 电脑控制系统 CNJK-406 台 15 信号转换器 8 线 台 16 果心温度探头 台 77 库气平衡袋 5 m3 个 78 库气安全阀 液封式 个 79 小活塞空压机 0.05/7 台 110 PVC 管 套 111 附件 套 1三 水冷系统1 冷却塔 DBNL3-100 台 22 水泵 SBL80-160I 台 23 水泵 SBL50-160I 台 24 阀门 套 305 管道及支架 吨 2.86 附件 套 1四 电仪控系统1 电器控制柜 套 12 照明系统 套 13 电线电缆 套 14 桥架管线 套 15 附件 套 1
