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亚太:交通运输:推出2012年盈利预测 (英文版).pdf

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1、February 27, 2010 Asia Pacific: Transportation Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 February 27, 2010 Asia Pacific: Transportation Introducing 2012E earnings forecasts Changes and Implications We are introducing our 2012E EPS estimates for the Transportation stocks in our universe. No changes

2、have been made to 2009E-2011E EPS. There are no changes to our investment theses, ratings or 12-month target prices. Introduce 2012E EPS estimates for transportation stocks in our universe Airlines Ticker Currency 2010E 2011E 2012EAir China (H) 0753.HK CNY 0.27 0.44 0.47Cathay Pacific 0293.HK HKD 0.

3、62 1.43 1.51China Airlines 2610.TW TWD 0.38 0.89 0.94China Eastern Airlines (H) 0670.HK CNY 0.02 0.10 0.11China Southern Airlines (H) 1055.HK CNY 0.32 0.37 0.40EVA Airways 2618.TW TWD 0.79 1.43 1.52Singapore Airlines SIAL.SI SGD 0.90 1.11 1.33Thai Airways THAI.BK THB 0.13 5.23 5.39Bulkers 2010E 2011

4、E 2012EChina COSCO Holdings (H) 1919.HK CNY 0.19 0.39 1.31Korea Line 005880.KS KRW 1,591 3,149 7,589Pacific Basin Shipping 2343.HK USD 0.04 0.08 0.08Precious Shipping PSL.BK THB 2.79 2.98 3.28Sincere Navigation 2605.TW TWD 3.89 3.82 4.29Sinotrans Shipping 0368.HK USD 0.04 0.05 0.04STX Pan Ocean - KR

5、W 028670.KS USD 0.37 1.17 1.27U-Ming Marine 2606.TW TWD 4.31 4.27 4.68Containers 2010E 2011E 2012EChina Shipping Container (H) 2866.HK CNY 0.01 0.18 0.24Evergreen Marine 2603.TW TWD 0.44 2.52 2.77Hanjin Shipping 117930.KS KRW 670 3,624 4,614Hyundai Merchant Marine 011200.KS KRW (134) 1,738 2,556Nept

6、une Orient Lines NEPS.SI USD 0.05 0.20 0.21Orient Overseas International 0316.HK USD 0.15 0.87 1.11Wan Hai Lines 2615.TW TWD 1.35 2.20 2.47Yang Ming Marine Transportation 2609.TW TWD 0.17 0.99 1.10Tankers 2010E 2011E 2012EChina Merchants Energy Shipping 601872.SS CNY 0.50 0.64 0.72China Shipping Dev

7、elopment (H) 1138.HK CNY 1.28 1.67 1.84Railroad 2010E 2011E 2012EGuangshen Railway (H) 0525.HK CNY 0.23 0.25 0.26Daqin Railway 601006.SS CNY 0.64 0.61 0.62MRO 2010E 2011E 2012EHAECO 0044.HK HKD 7.73 8.75 9.43SIA Engineering SIAE.SI SGD 0.24 0.26 0.27Pre-exceptional EPSSource: Company data, Goldman S

8、achs Research estimates Tom Kim +852-2978-0856 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hino Lam +852-2978-0526 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ronald Leung +852-2978-1255 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ricky Tsang +852-2978-6631 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do

9、 business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg

10、AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment ResearchFebruary 27, 2010

11、Asia Pacific: Transportation Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Reg AC We, Tom Kim and Hino Lam, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no par

12、t of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer gro

13、up and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the regions coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric

14、 may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next years estimate over current years estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROAC

15、E, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to det

16、ailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. Goldman Sachs Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Compendium report: please see di

17、sclosures at http:/ Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Company-specific regulatory disclosures Compendium report: please see disclosures at http:/ Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compend

18、ium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 31% 53% 16% 53% 47% 40% As of Januar

19、y 1, 2010, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,763 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the

20、 above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at http:/ Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the la

21、test relevant published research. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transacti

22、on; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers di

23、scussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. February 27, 2010 Asia Pacific: Transportation Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its a

24、nalysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analysts area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as off

25、icer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analysts area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associa

26、ted persons of Goldman Sachs Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in

27、the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be o

28、btained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. Uni

29、ted Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to

30、the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1)

31、(d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at http:/ which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrume

32、nt and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumpti

33、on tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts

34、recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stocks return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is de

35、emed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Inves

36、tment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price

37、target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list

38、 of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http:/ The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analysts investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the groups historical fundamentals and/or valuation. At

39、tractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage groups historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage groups historical fundamentals and/or valuatio

40、n. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage groups historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an a

41、dvisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an i

42、nvestment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not A

43、vailable or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distribute

44、s research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio s

45、trategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co.,

46、 Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of Ameri

47、ca by Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public

48、 information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analysts judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business re

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