1、Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 August 2010 Cathay Pacific Overweight 0293.HK, 293 HK Outlook still positive; raising estimates and PT Price: HK$18.08 Price Target: HK$22.00 Previous: HK$18.00 Hong Kong Airlines Corrine PngAC (65) 6882-1514 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited 111417HK$Aug
2、-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10Price Performance0293.HK share price (HK$HSI (rebased)YTD 1m 3m 12mAbs 26.4% 16.8% 10.1% 43.0%Rel 27.9% 8.2% 6.3% 39.4%Cathay Pacific (Reuters: 0293.HK, Bloomberg: 293 HK) HK$ in mn, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12ERevenue 86,563 66,978 85,818 91,937 97,707Ne
3、t Profit -8,696 4,694 10,414 8,913 9,765EPS (HK$) (2.21) 1.19 2.65 2.27 2.48DPS (HK$) 0.03 0.10 0.90 1.00 1.10Revenue Growth (%) 14.9% -22.6% 28.1% 7.1% 6.3%EPS Growth (%) -223.9%-154.0%121.9% -14.4% 9.6%ROCE -9.2% 5.5% 11.3% 10.9% 10.2%ROE 19.9% 11.9% 22.8% 17.3% 17.2%P/E -8.2 15.2 6.8 8.0 7.3P/BV
4、1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2EV/EBITDA -35.9 8.5 4.9 4.7 4.4Div Yield (%) 0.2% 0.6% 5.0% 5.5% 6.1%Shares O/S (mn) 3,934Market Cap (HK$ mn) 71,124Market Cap ($ mn) 9,164Price (HK$) 18.08Date Of Price 04 Aug 10Free float (%) 25.0%Avg Daily Volume (mn) 12.17Avg Daily Value (HK$ mn) 77.27Avg Daily Value ($ mn) 9.
5、96HSI 21,550Exchange Rate 8Fiscal Year End DecSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a r
6、esult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 1H10 highlights: Passenger yields rebounded most strongly on SW Pacific/
7、S Africa (+25% y/y), N America (+21%) and European (+21%) routes. Demand on London route has recovered more quickly than other routes like France, Germany. 4ppts of the 18% passenger yield y/y rise was due to higher foreign currency revenue. (See tables 1-4 for comparisons with SIA and Cathay Pacifi
8、c: 1H10 Results Review, 4 Aug for details). Mgmt is optimistic on 2H10: Notwithstanding its impressive performance in 1H, 2H10 will likely be stronger h/h, in line with historical seasonality. Forward bookings suggest continued strong passenger demand. Visibility on cargo demand is low but mgmt beli
9、eves that although y/y growth could slow, the underlying demand is holding up well and all its parked cargo capacity has been brought back (with the exception of the fuel inefficient B747-200Fs). Its four A340-300s remain parked and will be returned next year when their leases expire while 1 owned B
10、747-400 will be scrapped. New aircraft order will improve product appeal and lower unit costs: Adding more B777-300ERs will boost economies of scale as Cathay already operates 18 of them and have another 12 to be delivered by 2013. The new generation A350-900s promise substantial fuel cost savings a
11、nd other efficiencies given their extensive use of light-weight composite materials and have a much smaller backlog than the B787s. The thirty A350s are scheduled to be delivered from 2016-19 while the six B777-300ERs could be delivered earlier. The purchase will be funded with internal CFs and ECA/
12、EXIM-backed financing and CX may potentially structure some of these as sale and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclos
13、ures Client of the Firm: Cathay Pacific is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI; during the past 12 months, JPMSI provided to the company non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities-related services. Investment Banking (next 3 months): JPMSI or its affiliates expe
14、ct to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Cathay Pacific. Non-Investment Banking Compensation: JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Cathay Pacific. An affil
15、iate of JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Cathay Pacific. 09182736Price(HK$)Oct06Jul07Apr08Jan09Oct09Jul10Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) Price ChartUW HK$11.7UW HK$7 OW HK$15UW HK$17 UW HK$13.7UW HK$7.3 OW HK$13 OW HK$18Source
16、: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.Break in coverage Jul 19, 2007 - Jun 09, 2008. This chart shows J.P. Morgans continuing coverage of this stock; thecurrent analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweigh
17、t, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.Date Rating Share Price (HK$) Price Target (HK$) 07-Mar-07 UW 19.20 17.00 09-Jun-08 UW 16.26 13.70 14-Jul-08 UW 14.22 11.70 13-Nov-08 UW 8.03 7.30 12-Dec-08 UW 8.44 7.00 07-Jul-09 OW 10.26 13.00 05-Aug-09 OW 12.18 15.00 11-Mar-10 OW 15.48 18.00 Explanation of Equity
18、Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Neutral Over the next
19、 six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Underweight Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the
20、 analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage univ
21、erse. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: Corrine Png: Air China (07
22、53.HK), Cathay Pacific (0293.HK), China Airlines (2610.TW), China Cosco Holdings, Ltd. (1919.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Shipping Container Lines (2866.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), EVA Airways (2618.TW), Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930.KS), Korean Air (003490.KS), Neptune
23、Orient Lines (NOL) (NEPS.SI), Orient Overseas Intl Ltd (0316.HK), Pacific Basin Shipping (2343.HK), Precious Shipping (PSL.BK), SIA Engineering Company (SIAE.SI), Sincere Navigation Corporation (2605.TW), Singapore Airlines 8 Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 August 2010Corrine Png (65) 6882-1514 (SI
24、AL.SI), Thoresen Thai Agencies (TTA.BK), U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation (2606.TW), Wan Hai Lines (2615.TW), Yang Ming Marine (2609.TW) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2010 Overweight (buy) Neutral (hold) Underweight (sell) JPM Global Equity Research Coverage 46%
25、 42% 12% IB clients* 49% 46% 31% JPMSI Equity Research Coverage 44% 48% 9% IB clients* 68% 61% 53% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating
26、falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http:/ ,
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47、in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. “Other Disclosures” last revised March 1, 2010. 10 Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 August 2010Corrine Png (65) 6882-1514 Copyright 2010 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.
