1、Analyst,Contact,SWS Research Co. Ltd99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 ,Economic ResearchJanuary 21, 2013Kang Chen,AJiani Zhong(8621) 23297818 Related Reports,The Chinese View on China消费类行业带动调研指数继续走高摘要: 1 月上半月申万调研综合指数和当前景气度指数继续上升，库存指数与上期基本持平。投资要点： 调研综指：1 月上半月申万调研综合指数和当前景气度指数继续上升；库存指数与上期持平，
2、社会库存水平依旧不高。 指数解读：指数维持高位主要受到房地产、汽车、家电等消费相关行业良好的销售情况和出口年底出货旺季的支持，这点也得到公路货运反馈的印证。此外，矿山的开工率由于资源价格上扬而高于往年同期，但总体投资活动处于淡季，所以目前机床、工程机械的销售情况虽有所改善，但可持续性尚待观察。库存水平尚未开始明显上升，消费类行业供不应求的情况制约了库存增长，但钢铁等投资品库存有上升迹象。1、2 月份会有单月同比数据无法参照的问题，但从目前的调研情况来看，整体需求还是处于较好的水平。 值得关注的迹象：房地产方面，年后一手房价格上涨带动二手房价格上扬，房主倾向于持房过节造成二手房供给偏紧。汽车方面
3、，折扣力度一般，德、美系车销量上升，日韩系和自主品牌销量回落，看车人气上升，供给吃紧。家电经销商表示折扣力度大，销量环比上升，库存紧，彩电等大家电、数码产品、南方地区的空调都卖得不错，卫浴和厨房家电销量也在婚嫁需求带动下上扬。1 月上半月机床询价反常上升，部分询价来自此前被搁置的项目，可能在 3 月旺季转化为需求。工程机械 1 月上半月销量有所回落，厂商和经销商去年底冲量之后促销力度有所下降。来自实体经济的铜需求依然偏弱，目前铜需求主要来自投机。公路货运表示汽车类、家电类运量上升，钢材运量略有回暖，快消品运量稳定。出口货量环比略升，欧美线依然处在节前出货旺季，中东、东南亚货量平稳，不过目前爆仓
4、情况不多。 景气度：房地产、汽车景气度维持高位，家电、出口景气度继续上升。机床景气度受询价增加的带动而上升。,60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,54535251504948,The company does not hold any equitiesor derivatives of the listed companymentioned in this report (“target”), butthen we shall provide financial advisoryservices subject to the relevant laws andregulations. An
5、y affiliates of thecompany may hold equities of thetarget, which may exceed 1 percent ofissued shares subject to the relevantlaws and regulations. The company mayalso provide investment bankingservices to the target. The Companyfulfills its duty of disclosure within itssphere of knowledge. The clien
6、ts maycontact for relevant disclosure materials or log,申万调研综合指数,制造业PMI,into,,under,disclosure,column,for,further,information. The clients shall have acomprehensive understanding of thedisclosure and disclaimer upon the lastpage.,Index: Both the SWS Survey Index and Business Conditions Index,continue
7、d to improve in the first half of January. The SWS Inventory,was not high.,Our interpretation: The SWS Survey Indexs upward momentum,home appliances and the peak season for exports ahead of Chinese,continued due to the strong sales performance of property, autos and,the road freight sector. Meanwhil
8、e, miners increased operating rates,on higher resource prices, but overall investment remained,lukewarm during the low season. As such the sustainability of,ongoing improvements in machine tools and construction machinery,inventory growth limited by short supplies. Inventory levels of,sales has yet
9、to be confirmed. Dealer inventories remained low, with,previous lows. Economic data in Jan/Feb could be quite volatile with,CNY landing in Feb this year rather than Jan last year; however the,survey.,Key observations: Property: existing home prices increased.,Existing home supply is tightening. Auto
10、: Promotions moderated.,Sales of German and US brands improved while the sales of domestic,visits by potential buyers. Supply was tight. Home appliances: More,discounts, sales improved and inventories were low. TVs, digital,increase in marriages ahead of CNY also contributed to the sales.,products a
11、nd air conditioners in southern China saw strong sales. An,Machine tools: price enquires unexpectedly increased, driven by,festival. Construction machinery: sales moderated after the rapid,increase in previous months. Copper dealers: There was an increase,volume of consumer durables increased, while
12、 that of consumer,in speculative demand. Road freight: still busy. Transportation,Container shipping agents: container volume remained solid.,Business conditions: Business conditions in the property and auto,sectors remained strong while conditions in home appliances and,witnessed an improvement in
13、business conditions due to the increase,in price enquiries.,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,Investment Highlights:Index remained roughly unchanged, suggesting that dealer inventoryNew Year (CNY); this was also confirmed by relevant feedback frominvestment goods such as steel and iron, howeve
14、r, rebounded fromrecovery in end-demand appears on a solid base according to ourJapanese and Korean brands edged down slightly. There were moredelayed investment needs; this may materialize in sales after thestaples remained solid. Steel transportation improved marginally.exports continued to improv
15、e. The machine tool sector also,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 1,1,1,3,3,4,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,Charts & TablesFigure 1: SWS Survey Index continued to improveFigure 2: SWS Survey Inventory Index remained roughly unchangedFigure 3: Continued improvemen
16、t in the Current Business Conditions IndexFigure 4: Current business conditionsFigure 5: Expected business conditions in 6 months,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 2,11/04,11/05,11/06,11/07,11/08,11/09,11/10,11/11,11/12,12/01,12/02,12/03,12/04,12/05,12/06,12/07,12/08,12/09
17、,12/10,12/11,12/12,13/01,improve in the first half of January. The SWS Inventory Index remained,roughly unchanged, suggesting that dealer inventory was not high.,performance of property, autos and home appliances and the peak season for,The SWS Survey Indexs upward momentum continued due to the stro
18、ng sales,feedback from the road freight sector. Meanwhile, miners increased operating,rates on higher resource prices, but overall investment remained lukewarm,machine tools and construction machinery sales has yet to be confirmed.,Dealer inventories remained low, with inventory growth limited by sh
19、ort,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,IndexBoth the SWS Survey Index and Business Conditions Index continued toFigure 1: SWS Survey Index continued to improve,50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,SWS Survey Index,CFLP Mfg PMI,54535251504948,Source: CEIC, SWS ResearchFigure 2: SWS Survey Inventory Ind
20、ex remained roughly unchanged0.50.40.30.20.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4SWS Survey Inventory IndexSource: CEIC, SWS ResearchOur interpretationexports ahead of Chinese New Year (CNY); this was also confirmed by relevantduring the low season. As such the sustainability of ongoing improvements in,Please refer t
21、o the last page for important disclosures,Page 1,rebounded from previous lows. Economic data in Jan/Feb could be quite,volatile with CNY landing in Feb this year rather than Jan last year; however,prices. However, the supply of existing homes was tight as home owners,intend to hold back from selling
22、 until after CNY.,Autos: The scale of promotions remained moderate. Sales of German and US,down slightly. The number of potential buyers increased. Supply was tight.,brands improved while sales of domestic, Japanese and Korean brands edged,inventories were low. Major appliances such as TVs, digital
23、products and air,Home appliances: Dealers provided more discounts, sales improved MoM and,led by the demand from the increased number of marriages.,Price enquires for machine tools in the first half of January picked up beyond,were expected to translate into demand in the March peak season.,expectat
24、ion. Some of the enquiries were from previous delayed projects and,number of promotions offered by manufacturers and dealers after the,increase in sales at the end of last year.,speculators rather than the real economy.,Our survey points out that the majority of demand for copper came from,and home
25、appliances continued to edge up. Freight volume for steel products,also improved slightly while that for fast-moving consumer goods remained,steady.,The first half of January saw a slight MoM improvement in exports. Volume,of last year while volume on Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian routes,remain
26、ed steady with supply and demand balanced.,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,supplies. Inventory levels of investment goods such as steel and iron, however,the recovery in end-demand appears on a solid base according to our survey.Key observationsProperty: Existing home prices picked up follow
27、ing the increase in new homeconditioners in southern China sold well while sales of white goods improved,Construction machinery sales fell in the first half of January due to the lowerRoad freight companies suggested that transportation volume for automobileon European and US routes experienced peak
28、 seasons extended from the end,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 2,conditions in home appliances and exports continued to improve. The,machine tool sector also witnessed an improvement in business conditions,1,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,Figure 3: Continued imp
29、rovement in the Current Business Conditions Index,30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,Current Business Conditions,50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Expected business Conditions in 6 Months,Source: SWS ResearchBusiness conditionsBusiness conditions in the property and auto sectors remained strong whiledue to the in
30、crease in price enquiries.Figure 4: Current business conditionsCurrent Business Conditions0.80.60.40.20-0.2-0.4,Source: SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosures,2012/12/1,2012/12/15,2013/1/1,Page 3,1,transaction volume of existing houses with most respondents reporting,bet
31、ter performance than last December. The rise in transaction volume has,driven prices higher and existing house price started to increase, led by the,rebound in newly-built house prices. The rebound in both house prices and,potential buyers hoped to complete their purchases before the Lunar New,Year,
32、 leading to a high level of visits. However, home owners intend to keep,owner-occupiers make up the majority of housing demand at present, while,investment-based demand is currently rare. Overall market conditions,moderately throughout 2013.,Auto dealers: In the first half of January, there was litt
33、le change in sales,brands picked up slightly due to the rebound in demand at the year-end.,orders while booking orders rose. Sales orders for German and American,fewer new models released into the market. Orders for domestic brands fell,Orders for Korean brands remained unchanged due to fewer promot
34、ions and,slightly since promotions underperformed and as a result of the wait-and-see,prices improved slightly and discounts narrowed; the number of orders,remained unchanged. Additionally, all auto dealers indicated that prices had,decline in inventories with levels at less than one month.,Home app
35、liance dealers: Most home appliance dealers indicated that sales,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,Figure 5: Expected business conditions in 6 monthsExpected Business Conditions in 6 Months0.80.60.40.20-0.2,2012/12/1,2012/12/15,2013/1/1,Source: SWS ResearchDetailed sector survey results:Proper
36、ty agents: The first two weeks of the year witnessed a surge intransaction volume has strengthened expectations of a boom in March. Mosthouses until March, leading to a supply shortage. Respondents suggested thatappear healthy, with respondents expecting home prices to pick upsentiment among custome
37、rs. Some dealers for Japanese brands indicated thatincreased or at least remained at previous levels. And most dealers reported acontinued to pick up in the first half of January and nearly two thirds of them,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 4,reported a 30% improvement.
38、The strong momentum was driven by the,from marriage-related purchases. Most dealers were engaged in re-stocking,for the coming Chinese New Year with inventory levels of 1.5-2 months. Our,survey also suggests that there was a YoY improvement in sales due to the,relatively low base last year which was
39、 a result of an exit from the trade-in,and drive 1Q sales to an even higher level.,January improved slightly driven by active purchasing in the downstream,manufacturing sector. The increase in price enquires was perceived to be,However, some respondents indicated that price enquires were mainly from
40、,“abnormal” as manufacturing activity is typically inactive at the year-end.,manufacturing investment following weakness over the past year. The price,previous delayed projects, and that they represent a rebound in,season in March. Demand for heavy machine tools remained subdued, with,some responden
41、ts indicating further MoM declines in Jan. However, the,business conditions in downstream heavy industries are yet to be seen.,Although signs of a market recovery have been observed and the traditional,the lessons from their over-optimism last year and are showing little,willingness to increase inve
42、ntories.,Construction machinery dealers: Some manufacturers pursued an,meet annual sales targets, leading to a sales boom that exceed expectations,aggressive sales policy at the end of 2012 due to pressure to destock and,the volume of price inquiries declined in the first half of Jan. Some,responden
43、ts indicated that they lack the momentum to seek high sales,other respondents suggested that destocking pressure remains, and that,volume, and are focusing on reducing credit risk instead. That said, some,machines needs to continue. Regarding downstream business conditions, our,survey indicated that
44、 the capacity utilization rate of large excavators has,excavators did not improve significantly. Inventory remained at high levels as,increased as resource prices recovered while that of small/medium,the number of new ones was also on the rise. It has even been reported that,Sumitomo plants in Tangs
45、han might temporarily stop production throughout,Jan. 21, 2013,Economic ResearchBuilding,strong promotions during the New Year holiday and the high level of demandprogram. The peak season for air conditioners is expected to emerge in MarchMachine tool dealers: Both sales and price enquires in the fi
46、rst half ofenquires are expected to translate into effective demand during the peakprocurement cycle for heavy machine tools is typically longer. As such,peak season is around the corner, most dealers remain very cautious givenfor Nov/Dec. However, as this pressure eased in Jan both excavator sales andattractive sales terms and the model of replacing old machines with newsecond-hand excavators had piled up due to the previous “trade-in” programs;1Q in order to deplete the large inventories.,
