1、风险分析,Definitions 定义,What is risk ? 什么是“风险”?,风险-遭受损失, 伤害, 不利或毁灭的可能性 -高级汉语大辞典. The possibility of suffering a specific degree of harm or loss.遭受特定程度损害或损失的可能性 . Risk is combination of 风险为下述的综合： Probability.可能性. Severity. 严重性,A Small Exercise,Probability Is可能性为:,The likelihood that a given event will oc
2、cur (qualitative)发生一个已知事件的可能性（定性的). A number expressing the likelihood that a specific event will occur, expressed as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences.(quantitative)说明发生一个特定事件可能性的量，表示为实际发生量与可能发生量（定量的）比,Another Exercise,Severity Is严重性 :,The degree of
3、 damage or harm done on something that logically or naturally follows from an action or condition一个行动或情况逻辑地或自然地对某事造成的损害或伤害程度.Sometimes called hazard effect有时称为危险结果,Other Definitions其它定义,Hazard: a possible source of danger危险: 一个可能的危险源 Hazard effect: severity危险结果:严重性 Consequence: severity后果: 严重性 Likel
4、ihood: probability可能性: 概率,Example 1: Assessing the Probability 评估可能性,Is the probability affected by :the characteristics of the job?the skill or experience of the people doing it?the equipment used? How often the job will be carried out?,What Will Effect the Probability? 那些影响可能性?,The intrinsic chara
5、cteristic of the object (what, how many)物质的内在特性 (什么, 多少) Human factors ( who, how many)人的因素 (谁，多少) Triggers from outside environment (when, where, who, how many)外部环境引发(什么时间, 地方, 谁和多少) The frequency/duration for doing the job (how often, how long)做这项工作的频率持续时间(多长时间一次，多长时间),Example 2: Assessing the Sev
6、erity评估严重性,Short term (acute)or long term?(chronic) Affecting people, environment equipment or business? How many people can be hurt?,What Will Effect the Severity? 那些影响严重性？,Short term or long term?短期或长期？ Affecting people, environment,equipment or business?影响人，环境，设备或业务经营？ How many people can be hurt
7、?多少人能受到伤害？ How much damage to environment can it cause?它能对环境造成多大损害？ How much damage to equipment/business can it cause?它能对设备业务造成多少损害？,Combining Probability and Severity to Get?可能性与严重性结合在一起得到？,Severity/ Consequence Probability/ Likelihood,Every Thing Has Associated Risks 任何事都有有关的风险,Activities With Ri
8、sks有风险的活动,Walking走 Running跑 Sitting坐 Eating吃 Driving驾驶,Grinding打磨 Welding焊接,Why Are You Prepared to Undertake the Activity?为什么您要准备进行这个活动？,Risk acceptability.风险可接受性 All risks should be reduced to as low as reasonably possible.所有风险应尽可能减低到合理可行的最低程度 What will effect risk acceptability?什么影响风险的可接受性？ Stand
9、ards标准 Judgement判断 Experience经验. Capability of further improvement进一步改进的能力.,You Have Made a Risk Assessment!您已进行过风险评估！,What Can We Do With Risk Then? 那么我们怎么对待风险？,An Exercise,Exercise:,5,1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,Risk Management 风险管理,Management of risk is a continuous process and the cornerstone of all the HSE
10、 Elements.风险管理是一个连续过程，是所有HSE原理的基石. We will regularly identify the hazards and assess the risks associated with our activities.我们应定期辨识与我们工作有关的危险和对此进行风险评估. We will take appropriate action to manage the risks and hence prevent or reduce the impact of potential accidents or incidents.我们应采取适当的行动管理风险，防止或降
11、低潜在的事故影响 If the emergency does occur, we need to be prepared.如果确实发生紧急情况，我们需要有所准备.,Risk Management风险管理,Leaders put into place and promote the use of processes to identify hazards associated with BPs activities, assess risks, control the hazards and manage the risks to acceptable levels.主管应负责和鼓励使用辨识与B
12、P的活动有关的危险的程序，评估风险，控制和管理危险，将危险降低到一个可接受的程度 Potential hazards and risks to personnel, facilities, the public, customers and the environment are assessed for existing operations, products, business developments, acquisitions, modifications, new projects, closures, divestments and decommissionings.对现有的操作
13、，产品，业务发展，采购，改造，新项目，封闭，脱离，封存等都应评估其对人员，装置,公众,客户和环境的潜在危险和风险,Risk Management风险管理,Assessed risks are addressed by levels of management appropriate to the nature and magnitude of the risk. Decisions are clearly documented and resulting actions implemented through local procedures.根据适应风险的性质和程度的管理级别处理评估的风险决
14、定应清楚地用文件记录决定和通过程序执行由此产生的行动,Risk Management风险管理,Risk assessments and risk management / control measures are referenced in project approval documentation.在项目批准文件中应参考风险评估和风险管理控制措施 Risk assessments are updated at specified intervals and as changes are planned.风险评估应定期更新或在有计划改变时更新.,Risk Management风险管理,Wha
15、t Is Risk Assessment?什么是风险评估？,A way to identify all the risks relating to a specific task,assess the risk in a systematic way to see if the risk is acceptable, if extra control measures should be put into place.辨识与一个具体任务有关的所有风险，以系统的方式评估风险确认风险是否可以接受，是否应采取另外的控制措施,Kinds of Risk Assessment 风险评估类型,Job Ha
16、zardous analysis (JHA)工作危险分析 What-if analysis“如果即”分析 Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) 危险和可操作性分析 Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) 定量风险评估 Control Of Substance Hazardous to Health (COSHH)危害健康物质控制,Method of Risk Assessment 风险评估方法,Form risk assessment team组织风险评估小组 Identify work steps辨识工作步骤 Identify h
17、azard relating to each step辨识与每个步骤有关的危险 Rating risk and identify controls风险分级和辨识控制措施 Review residual risks审查残余风险 Implement the controls执行控制措施 !,Form Risk Assessment Team 组织风险评估小组,Involve different disciplines relating to the work to be done根据工作由不同专业的人组成 Technical expert技术专家 HSE expert HSE专家 Performi
18、ng numbers执行人员 Team members must be familiar with the risk assessment process and at least one member has sufficient knowledge of the work activities评估小组成员必须熟悉风险评估程序，至少应有一个成员具有对要进行的工作的足够知识,Identify Work Steps 辨识工作步骤,What is the purpose of the task?工作任务的目的？ Who is going to carry out the task?谁执行工作？ W
19、hen is the task is executed?执行时间? Where is the task to be performed?工作地方? What are the critical activities?关键活动? Is there any other affected area, people or operation? 有无其它的受影响区，人或操作？,Identify Hazard Relating to Each Step辨识每个步骤的有关风险,Harm to people?对人的伤害? Safety?安全? Health?健康? Damage to environment?对
20、环境的损坏? Air, land, water pollution空气，土壤，水污染 Damage of equipment?设备损坏? Process interruption?加工中断? Property damage?财产损坏? Business interruption?经营中断? Reputation?声誉?,Rating Risk风险分级,Risk should be evaluated according to:应根据下述评估风险: The worst credible consequence if the hazards effects were to result.危险影响导
21、致的最严重后果.The likelihood of the hazard effects will occur.产生危险影响的可能性,Rating Risk风险分级,Rules for rating hazards Consequence危险后果分级规则: High example are death, serious injury, serious impact on the environment or damage $100k高 实例为死亡，严重伤害，对环境严重影响或损坏 $100k Medium examples are lost time injury, minor impact o
22、n the environment or damage $10k-100k中 实例为损失时间伤害，对环境影响小，或损坏 $10k-100k Low examples are first aid injury, no impact on the environment or damage$10k低 实例为急救伤害，对环境没有影响或损坏$10k,Rating Risk风险分级,Rules for rating likelihood of occurrence: High very likely and easily occurs, more than once per year高 非常可能，易发生
23、，每年次以上Medium possible occurs sometimes, once per 1-5 years中 有时可能发生，年次Low very unlikely Hardly ever occurs, once per 5 years or longer低 不太可能发生，几乎从未发生过，年以上发生一次,Risk Matrix风险矩阵,Rating Risk 风险分级,According to the risk matrix, risk can be rated as:根据风险图，风险级别可以分为： Low risk:may be acceptable, however, revie
24、w task to see whether can be reduced further.低风险：可以接受的，但是需要回顾工作任务，确认是否可以进一步降低 Medium risk:the task should be redefined to take account of the hazards involved or the risk should be reduced to as low as reasonably practical.中等风险：重新确定任务，考虑涉及的危险或应将风险降低到ALARP（合理可行的最低水平）High risk:It should be redefined t
25、hat if the further control measures need to be put in place to reduce the risk to ALARP. 高风险：重新确定，如果需要采取进一步的控制措施将风险降低到ALARPThe controls should be re-assessed for adequacy prior task commencement.在工作开始前应重新评估控制措施的适当性,ALARP Principle ALARP 原则,ALARP Principle ALARP 原则,Cost,risk,A,B,C,Accident cost / ris
26、k,Cost to reduce risk/risk,Hierarchy of Control 控制措施的层次结构,Elimination消除 Substitution代替 Engineering controls工程控制 Segregation 隔离 Reduction in personnel/Time Exposure减少人员或暴露时间 Procedures程序 Personal protective Equipment个人防护设备,Residual Risks 残余风险,These are the risks that cannot be practicably be complete
27、ly eliminated:有些风险实际上不能完全消除： People fall on perfectly sound floors人在非常光滑的地面上摔倒。 People fall over their own feet人自己摔跤。 Even skilled people make mistakes即使很熟练的人也会犯错误。,Review Residual Risks回顾残余风险,If the residual risk is unacceptable, additional control measures should be identified.如果残余风险不可接受，应辨识另外的控制措
28、施： If the risks are reduced to an acceptable level,the additional controls should be recorded with the new residual risk rating.如果风险降低到一个可接受的级别，应记录新的残余风险级别和附加的控制措施. If it cannot reduce the risk to an acceptable level, the task should be reevaluated. 如果风险降低不到可接受的级别，应重新评估工作,Implement Controls 实施控制措施,T
29、he success of a risk assessment will depend upon how effectively it has been communicated. The value of the risk assessment will be wasted if the people carrying out the task are not fully aware of, or do not thoroughly understand the hazards and the precautions put in place. 风险评估的成功依赖于它被有效的沟通。如果执行工
30、作的人没有完全明白或没有完全理解风险和预防措施，风险评估的价值就会被浪费。,Toolbox Meeting 工具箱会议,Open two-way dialogue toolbox talks for the implementation of risk assessment is crucial for the success of a risk assessment which includes:公开的双向交流的工具箱会议对于风险评估的实施和成功实施的关键的，它包括： 1. Give everyone involved in the task a thorough understanding
31、 of:让每一个任务中涉及的人完全理解： The detail of the activities involved in carrying out the work; both their own activity and that of others所执行任务的细节；包括他们自己的活动和其他人的活动。 The potential hazards identified for each stage of the task识别出任务每个阶段可能存在的潜在风险。 The control measures in place or to be put in place to mitigate the
32、 hazards用于减轻危害的控制措施。 Individual actions and responsibilities at various stages of the task在任务不同阶段的个人行动和责任。,Toolbox Meeting 工具箱会议,2. Provide the opportunity for those involved in the task to identify further hazards and control measures which may have been overlooked in the initial assessment.提供机会给执行
33、任务的人进一步识别在最初的评估中可能被忽视的风险和控制措施。 3. Reach agreement of the whole work team on whether or not to proceed with the activity.在整个团队中达成共识是否进行这项工作。4. Make clear to all involved that should conditions or personnel change or assumptions made when planning the activity prove false, they should re-assess the si
34、tuation. 使所有被涉及的人都清楚当情况或人员变化，或者是计划这项任务时所作的假设被证明是错误的时，应该重新评估形势。 5. Make clear to all involved that should feed back their lessons learned from the risk assessment after the task to be performed to the performing team leader for updating the risk assessment. 使所有被涉及的人都清楚应该在任务完成后向执行负责人反馈他们从风险评估中所学到的经验教训
35、以更新风险评估。,An Example:,Serious lung cancer,H,H,H,Local ventilation system,L,H,M,Exercise:,Check List for Hazard,Liquid or gas 液体或气体 Poor lighting 照明不好 Flammable materials 易燃物 High/low temperature 高/低温 Hot materials 热物料 Flying particles/sparks 飞尘/火花 Adverse weather 不利天气 Explosive 易爆 Toxic materials 有毒物 Lifting operation 起吊作业 Traffic 交通,Falling Objects 下坠物 Danger of falling 掉下危险 Static Charges 静电 Generating sparks 产生火花 Live Electricity 带电 Naked flames or arcs 明火或电弧 Moving machinery 旋转设备 Inert Gas惰气 Earth collapsed 地下陷 Radioactive materials 放射性物质 Corrosive materials 腐蚀物 Noise 噪音,Any Question?,
