1、Chapter 6,DECISION MAKING:THE ESSENCE OF THE MANAGERS JOB决策:管理工作的本质,Learning Outline(学习提纲),1.The decision-making process Define decision and the decision-making(决策) process Describe the eight steps of the decision-making,Herbert Simon,3,2.The manager as a decision maker Discuss the assumptions of th
2、e rational decision makingDescribe the concept of the bounded rationality(有限理性), satisfaction（满意）, and escalation of commitment（承诺升级）.,决策就是选择 要还是不要！,4,Explain what intuition (直觉) is and how it affects decision-making Identify the two types (两类)of decision problems and the two types of decisions (两种决
3、策类型)that are used to solve them. Contrast the three decision-making conditions(决策条件) of certainty, risk, and uncertainty Describe the four decision-making styles(决策风格),5,赫伯特.西蒙-经济组织决策管理大师,主要学术贡献: 1、有限理性理论 西蒙认为现实生活中作为管理者或决策者的人是介于完全理性与非理性之间的“有限理性”的“管理人”。 “管理人”的价值取向和目标往往是多元的，不仅受到多方面因素的制约，而且处于变动之中乃至彼此矛盾
4、状态；“管理人”的知识、信息、经验和能力都是有限的，他不可能也不企望达到绝对的最优解，而只以找到满意解为满足。在实际决策中，“有限理性”表现为：决策者无法寻找到全部备选方案，也无法完全预测全部备选方案的后果，还不具有一套明确的、完全一致的偏好体系，以使它能在多种多样的决策环境中选择最优的决策方案。,6,2.西蒙的决策理论 西蒙指出组织中经理人员的重要职能就是做决策 （1）决策的制定包括四个主要阶段：找出制定决策的根据，即收集情报；找到可能的行动方案；在诸行动方案中进行抉择，即根据当时的情况和对未来发展的预测，从各个备择方案中选定一个方案；对已选择的方案及其实施进行评价。 （2）决策分为程序化决
5、策和非程序化决策。所谓程序化决策，就是那些带有常规性、反复性的例行决策，可以制定出一套例行程序来处理的决策。所谓非程序化决策，则是指对那些过去尚未发生过，或其确切的性质和结构尚捉摸不定或很复杂，或其作用十分重要而需要用现裁现做的方式加以处理的决策。 （3）不同类型的决策需要不同的决策技术。决策技术又分为传统技术和现代技术。,.Decision Making（决策）,1.Decisions（决策）Decisions are choices from two or more alternatives（备选方案）in order to achieve a certain goal.,管理就 是决策,
6、8,2.Decision-Making Process（决策过程） 1) Step 1 - Identifying a Problem（识别问题） Problem is the discrepancy （差距）between an existing and a desired state of affairs.,9, Three characteristics of problems: Managers must be aware of problems. Managers are under pressure to take actions. Managers must have resou
7、rces to take actions.,2) Step 2 - Identifying Decision Criteria找出决策标准 decision criteria - whats relevant in making a decision（什么与制定决策有关）,11,3) Step 3 - Allocating Weights to the Criteria分配权重 Criteria are not equally important in decision making. Managers must weight the criteria to give them appropr
8、iate priority（排列指标的优先顺序） in the decision.,重庆十佳企业 评选指标权重,12,Criteria and weights for franchise decision,13,4) Step 4 - Developing Alternatives list the viable （可行的）alternatives that could resolve the problem without evaluating them. 5) Step 5 - Analyzing Alternatives each alternative is evaluated aga
9、inst(对照) the criteria and each alternatives strengths and weakness （优势与劣势）are evident.,14,Assessed Values of Franchise Opportunities Using Decision Criteria（决策标准）,15,Evaluation of Franchise Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,16,6) Step 6 - Selecting an Alternative choosing the best alternative f
10、rom among those considered.,17,7) Step 7 - Implementing （执行、实施）the Alternative implementation - conveying the decision to those affected(被影响者)by it and getting their commitment(取得他们的支持) to it participation in(参与) decision-making process inclines people to support the decision. decision may fail if i
11、t is not implemented properly.,18,8) Step 8 - Evaluating （评估）Decision Effectiveness. determine whether the problem is resolved. If the decision fails, managers should check following issues: If the problem is incorrectly defined? If errors are made in the evaluation of various alternatives? If the r
12、ight alternative is selected but poorly implemented?, .The universality(普遍性) of decision making,Decisions in the Management Functions,.The Manager As Decision Maker,1.Rational Decision Making（理性决策） 1) Decisions are consistent, value-maximizing choices within specified constraints(特定条件). 2) Managers
13、are assumed to（被假定为） make rational decisions.,Making decisions,21,3) Assumptions of Rationality（完全理性假设）Decision maker would: (1) be objective and logical（客观和逻辑） (2) carefully define a problem（确切的问题） (3) have a clear and specific goal（清楚和特定的目标）,22,(4) select the alternative that maximizes the likelih
14、ood of achieving the goal（最优化方案） (5) make decision in the firms best economic interests（经济利益）4) Managerial decision making seldom meets all the tests（管理决策很少是这样做出的）,图示：Assumptions Of Rationality（完全理性假设）,Rational Decision Making,All alternatives and consequences are known （所有方案和结果是已知 的）,Single, well-d
15、efined goal is to be achieved （要实现单一而明确的 目标）,Problem is clear and Unambiguous （问题清晰明确）,Final choice will maximize Payoff（回报）,No time or cost constraints exist （没有时间和陈本的限制）,Preferences are Constant and stable （偏好是一贯而稳 定的）,Preferences （偏好）are clear,24,理性决策在实际中必须具备以下基本条件:1、决策过程中必须获得全部有效的信息。2、寻找出与实现目标相关
16、的所有决策方案3、能够准确地预测出每一个方案在不同的客观条件下所能产生的结果。4、非常清楚那些直接或间接参与政策制定的人们的社会价值偏向及其所占的相对比重。5、可以选择出最优化的决策方案,2.Bounded Rationality（有限理性决策） Managers make decisions rationally that is limited by an individuals ability （个人能力）to process information. Satisfice（满意） - accept solutions that are “good enough”（足够好）。escalati
17、on of commitment（承诺升级） - increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong。 refusal to admit（拒绝承认） that the initial decision(初始决策) may have been flawed(缺陷),26,有限理性模型的主要观点: （1）手段-目标链的内涵有一定矛盾，简单的手段-目标链分析会导致不准确的结论。 （2）决策者追求理性，但又不是最大限度地追求理性，他只要求有限理性。 （3）决策者在决策中追求“满
18、意”标准，而非最优标准。,3.Role of Intuition（直觉决策） 1) The definition of intuitive decision making Intuitive decision making is subconscious （下意识的）process of making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.,28,2) Feature: A. It does not rely on （不依赖于)a systematic or thorough analy
19、sis of the problem. B. It generally complements(补充)a rational analysis .,3) What Is Intuition?（直觉是什么）,30,4)直觉思维程序 （美国耶鲁大学心理学教授罗伯特.斯登伯格） A.选择性编码：从众多杂乱的原始信息中提炼，浓缩有效信息； B.选择性组合：将选出的信息组合成有机整体； C.选择性比较：将经过组合的新信息与已掌握的旧信息进行比较。,31,管理者何时使用直觉决策（罗宾斯）：,（1）存在着不确定因素；（2）极少有先例存在；（3）变化难以科学地预测；（4）所能获得的事实非常有限；（5）事实不足以
20、明确指明前进方向；（6）分析性的数据用处不大；（7）需要从存在的几个可行方案中选择一个，而难以选择；（8）时间有限，存在提出正确决策的压力。,32,案例分析： 格兰仕：决策就是直觉 选择上海卖出第一台微波炉 1994年天灾的洗礼：当年产品销量增加50%。 “价格屠夫”的背后秘诀：一对夫妇的启示。“产品不能进入百姓家庭，就意味着它的容量很小，市场面很窄，这样我的企业将会永远被这个市场容量限制住，没有做大的机会。”（梁庆德） 凭直觉取胜：要把资金往一个地方集中规模上去了成本降下来市场上微波炉降价降价了以后把消费者的消费欲望变成消费行为，把市场的消费潜能变成消费事实市场容量增大拉动销售企业资金回流，
21、企业规模再次扩大成本再次下降,1. Structured Problems and programmed decisions Structured Problems （结构性问题）： straightforward（明确）, familiar（常见、普通）, and easily defined problems。 Programmed Decisions（程序化决策）：A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach, it is often used to address（解决） structured probl
22、ems。 它的优点是： minimize the need for managers to use discretion（权衡，考虑）。 facilitate organizational efficiency（组织效率）,Types of Problems and Decisions（问题类型和决策）,34,具体形式有： Procedure（程序） - series of interrelated sequential（连续） steps used to respond to a structured problem.管理者遵循这些步骤对结构化的问题作出反应。 Rule （规则）- expl
23、icit statement （明确的陈述）of what to do or not to do. Policy（政策） - guidelines (指导方针) or parameters （参数、变量）for decision making decisions. 为决策提供特定的方向性思考，通常给决策留下思考的余地。,2. Unstructured problems and non-programmed decisions A. Unstructured Problems（非结构性问题） ：new, unusual（不常见） problems for which information is
24、 ambiguous（模糊） or incomplete（不完备）,36,B. Non-programmed decisions （非程序化决策）： are unique, nonrecurring and require custom-made solutions being used to address（解决） poorly- structured problems. They are more frequently used among higher-level（较高层） managers. few decisions in the real world are either full
25、y programmed（程序化） or nonprogrammed （非程序化的）。,图示：Types Of Problems, Types Of Decisions, And Level In The Organization,38,C. Integration 集成，综合 Few managerial decisions in the real world are either fully programmed or non- programmed. Most decisions fall in between. And most decisions may be mainly prog
26、rammed or mainly non-programmed, rather than as completely one or the other.,1.Certainty（确定） - It is a situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known.,Decision-Making Conditions（决策条件）,40,2. Risk（风险） - It is a situation in which managers are
27、 able to estimate the probability of outcomes（可能的收益） stemming from each alternative. expected value（期望价值） - the conditional return from each possible outcome. multiply expected revenue from each outcome by the probability of each outcome.,Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift
28、（滑雪索道）：期望值计算示例,3.Uncertainty （不确定）- Managers are not certain about the outcomes of decisions and unable to estimate probabilities. Influential factors: Available information is limited.It is influenced by the psychological orientation of decision maker.,43,（2） Psychological orientation（心理取向） of deci
29、sion maker Maximax（最大最大：最大化最大可能的收益） choice optimistic（乐观） maximizing the maximum possible payoff. maximin （最大最小：最大化最小可能的收益）choice - pessimistic （悲观） maximizing the minimum possible payoff. minimax （最小最大：最小化最大可能遗憾）- minimize the maximum “regret”（后悔）.,Case analysis：Visa international Payoff Matrix（收益矩
30、阵）,Regret Matrix（后悔值矩阵）,.The Manager As A Decision Maker （续),6.Decision-Making Styles（决策风格） two dimensions（二维） define the approach to decision making. way of thinking （思维方式）- differs from rational to intuitive tolerance for ambiguity （模糊的忍耐性）- differs from a need for consistency and order to the abi
31、lity to process many thoughts simultaneously,47,Define（界定） four decision-making styles Directive（命令式） - fast, efficient, and logical Analytic（分析式） - careful and able to adapt or cope with new situations Conceptual （概念式）- able to find creative solutions Behavioral（行为式） - seek acceptance of decisions,
32、图示： Decision-Making Styles,.decision-making biases and errors,Heuristics or rules of thumb(启发式规则或经验规则) Rules of thumb that managers use to simplify decision making.管理者利用经验，可以大大地简化决策问题，处理复杂性、模糊性和不确定性。 但是，这不等于说凭经验一定是可靠的。 各种偏差和失误，在所难免。common decision-making errors and biases（常见的决策失误和偏差）.详见书：148页的图 exhi
33、bit6-13,50,.Effective decisions making,1. Know when its time to call it quits. 2. Practice the five “whys”. 3. Be an effective decision maker. 1) It focuses on what is important. 2) Its logical and consistent. 3) It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intui
34、tive thinking. 4) It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma. 5) It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion（科学的评价）. 6) Its straightforward, reliable, easy to use and flexible.,.Overview Of Managerial Decision Making (管理决策综述),Decision-Making Process,Decision-making Errors and Biases,52,推荐参考书： 1. 书名:哈佛决策-哈佛商学院决策圣经 作者:张雪松 出版社:人民出版社,
