1、期货市场理论与实务,期货市场理论与实务课程结构,期货交易与期货市场,期货市场的基本功能,期货市场的组织结构,期货交易制度及合约,期货套期保值交易,期货投机与套利交易,金融期货,期权与期货期权,期货市场理论与实务课程结构,期货交易与期货市场,期货市场的基本功能,期货市场的组织结构,期货交易制度及合约,期货套期保值交易,期货投机与套利交易,金融期货,期权与期货期权,投机的概念期货投机，是指通过买入（或卖出）期货合约，然后待价位合适时对冲平仓获取利润的行为。期货投机就是投入资本甘冒风险以求预期利润的交易行为。 期货投机的作用1、承担价格风险2、促进价格发现3、促进资源有效配置4、提高市场流动性 期货
2、投机与赌博的区别1、风险机制不同2、运作机制不同3、经济职能不同,期货投机与套利,投机,投机概述,投机的原则1.了解期货市场和合约 2.制定交易计划 3.建立交易记录 4.模拟交易 5.确定可用于投机的风险资本额 6.分散资金投入 7.不能以投机利润支付日常开销,投机的方法1、选择入市时机 2、平均买低法和平均卖高法 3、金字塔式买入卖出 4、平仓时运用止损指令,期货投机与套利,投机,投机的原则与方法,价格（元/吨） 持仓数（手） 平均价（元/吨）2050 0 2026.32040 0 0 2024.62030 0 0 0 20222025 0 0 0 0 2019.42015 0 0 0 0
3、 0 2015,期货投机与套利,投机,金字塔买入法,价格 合约份数 平均价5.20美元 0 0 0 0 0 5.13美元5.15美元 0 0 0 0 5.10美元5.10美元 0 0 0 5.06美元5.05美元 0 0 5.03美元5.00美元 0 5.00美元,期货投机与套利,投机,金字塔卖出法,1.最重要的是人品。 2.判断对错并不重要，重要的在于正确时获取了多大利润，错误时亏损了多少。 3.“好风使尽帆” 4. 如果操作过量，即使对市场判断正确，仍会一败涂地。 5.承认错误是件值得骄傲的事情。犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的，只有知错不改才是耻辱。 7.人对事物的认识并不完整。 8.永远不要孤
4、注一掷。,期货投机与套利,投机,索罗斯名言,投资的最高原则：第一原则：尽量避免投资损失第二原则：永远不忘第一原则降低风险的最佳途径是：第一，只有在几率对你有利时才进场第二，要有连续进场的准备我们也会有恐惧和贪婪，只不过在别人贪婪的时候我们恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候我们贪婪。,期货投机与套利,投机,巴菲特名言,期货投机与套利,投机,理查 J. 费尔兹 (Richard J. Feltes) 是美国瑞富投资集团公司（REFCO）的商品研究副总裁兼粮食、菜籽油高级分析师。他于1970年毕业于伊利诺斯大学农业专业，1972年获得南伊利诺斯大学MBA学位，1973年就职于大陆谷物公司（Conti Commo
5、dity Services），1984年进入REFCO公司。费尔兹以通过数据预测农产品的价格而著称。他所管理的REFCO全球研究网是期货业实时分析的重要消息来源之一。REFCO公司吸引大量跨国食品公司成为其客户的原因之一应归功于费尔兹在谷物价格上富有洞察力的分析。,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,1. Plan your trades and trade your plans.为你的交易做好计划；按你的计划执行交易。 2. Hope and fear are the two greatest enemies of speculators.期冀和恐惧是投机者两个最大的敌人。 3. Keep r
6、ecords of your trading results.对你的交易结果做好纪录。 4. Maintain a positive attitude no matter how much you lose.不管你输了多少，保持一个积极的态度。 5. Avoid overconfidenceit could be your greatest enemy.不要过分自信它会成为你最大的仇敌。 6. Continually set higher trading goals.不断设定更高的交易目标。 7. Stops are the key to success for many traderslim
7、it your losses!设定止损是很多交易者成功的关键限制你的亏损！ 8. The most successful traders are those that trade long term.最成功的交易商是做长线交易的交易商。 9. Successful traders buy into bad news sell into good news.成功的交易者在坏消息时买，在好消息时卖。 10. The successful trader is not afraid to buy high sell low.成功的交易者不怕在高位时买进，在低位时卖出。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功
8、风险管理的125条箴言,11. Successful traders have a well scheduled planned time for studying the markets.成功的交易者有效地规划时间来进行市场研究。 12. Successful traders set profit objectives for each trade they enter.成功的交易者为他们所做的每一笔交易都设定有赢利目标。 13. Do not collect the opinions of others before entering tradesfacts are pricelessop
9、inions are worthless. In short successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.不要在还没进入交易以前就到处征求意见事实价值无穷、意见一文不值。简单地说，成功的交易者不为别人的意见所左右。 14. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.不断地为耐心、毅力、决断和理性的行为作努力。 15. Never get out of the market just be
10、cause you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.决不要因为失去耐心而退出市场，也决不要因为迫不及待而进入市场。 16. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.进出市场不要过于频繁。 17. The most profitable trading tool is simply following the trend.最佳的赢利方法就是跟随趋势。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,18. N
11、ever change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to a definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.除非有充分的理由，不要改变你在市场里的头寸。每做一手交易时，你都要有可以依据的理由或者明确的计划；此后，除非有明确的趋势改变的迹象，不要退出。 19. Los
12、ses make the speculator studiousnot profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.赔钱不能赢利，但能使投机者细心钻研。抓住每一次赔钱的机会，改进你对市场行为的了解。 20. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but selfcontrol. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the mo
13、st important element in the success equation.在投机里最难的任务不是预测，而是自我控制。成功的交易是艰难和令人烦恼的交易。在成功的等式里，你是最重要的因素。 21. The basic substance of price change is human emotion. Panic, fear, greed, insecurity, anxiety, stress, and uncertainty are the primary sources of shortterm price change.价格变化的基本要素是人的情感。慌乱、恐惧、贪婪、不安
14、全感、担心、压力和犹豫不定，这些是短期价格变动的主要根源。 22. Bullish consensus is typically at its high when the market is at a top. Also there are few bulls at major bottoms.典型地说，当市场在顶部时，异口同声地看多的人最多；在重大的底部时，很少有人持牛市的观点。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,23. Watch the spreads i.e., dont be bullish if inverses are narrowing.注意多空套做。也就
15、是说，如果逆差在减小，不要看多。 24. Remember that a bear market will give up in one month what a bull market has taken 3 months to build.记住，一个月的熊市能让你失去在三个月的牛市中所得到的。 25. Identify “the dominant factor” in each commodity. Be prepared to redefine this factor as conditions change.找到每一种商品期货里的“决定性因素”。随着情况的变化，随时准备重新判定着一因素
16、。 26. Expand your sources for market info but limit your sources for market opinion.扩充你的市场信息来源；限制你的市场意见来源。 27. Dont ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if market moves against you 20 from your peak profit point.永远不要让一场大赢的交易转变为输家。如果你的赢利从最高处下滑了20，止损！ 28. It is never
17、possible to know everything about anything. A commodity trader is in constant danger.没有人能够做到万事皆知。从事期货交易总要面临危险。 29. Successful trading requires four things. Knowledge, disciplined courage, money, and the energy to merge the first 3 properly.交易要具备四大要素才能成功：知识、控制得当的勇气、金钱以及将这三者妥善结合在一起的精力。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成
18、功风险管理的125条箴言,30. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.机会，而下一个机会很可能是个赢利的机会。 31. The one essential ingredient to making money with money and keeping it is having an organized effort.用钱来挣钱以及保住钱的一个根本要
19、素是做事要有板有眼。 32. Unless you progress, you go backwards. Once you complete a trading goal it is crucial that you immediately set a new goal.不进则退。要紧的是一旦实现了一个交易目标，你应该立刻设定一个新的目标。 33. The art of concentration can help you become a great trader. In other words, set aside time to think, plan, meditate, inves
20、tigate, research, analyze, evaluate and select your trades carefully.专心致志的艺术能够帮助你成为一个杰出的交易者。也就是说，安排出时间来仔细地思考、计划、琢磨、调查、研究、分析、衡量和选择你的交易。 34. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50 of them again in the market.把你的盈利一分为二，决不拿其中的百分之五十以上再到市场上去冒险。 35. The key to successful tradi
21、ng is in knowing yourself and in knowing your stress point.成功交易的关键是了解你自己以及知道你自己对压力的承受能力。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,36. The real difference between winners and losers is not so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.成功者和失败者之间的真正区别，与其说是天生的能力，还不如说是在避免错误中表现的有素的训练。 37. T
22、he greatest risk for a commodity trader is to rely on hope alone. Never substitute hope for facts. The greatest loss is loss of selfconfidence.期货交易商的最大的错误就是把一切都寄托在希望上。永远不要用希望来取代事实。自信心的失落是最大的亏损。 38. You cannot perform very well for very long with your shoes nailed to the floor. In trading as in fenci
23、ng there are the quick and the dead.你不可能在原地不动而持久地表现出色。交易就像击剑，不是快速运动，就是身败剑下。 39. Remember Mark Twain: “only 10 of the people think. 10 think they think. The other 80 would rather die than think.”记住马克土温说的：“只有百分之十的人思考，百分之十的人认为他们思考，其余百分之八十的人宁死也不愿思考。” 40. The man who goes to the top as a commodity trader
24、 does not do as he pleases. He has trained himself to choose correctly between the two freedoms: the freedom to do as he pleases, and the freedom to do what he must do.期货交易高手做事不是随心所欲。他把自己训练得知道怎样在两种自由中作正确的选择：随心所欲的自由和非做不可的自由。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,41. Since there is always the possibility of sur
25、prise in thin, dead markets, less capital should be risked there than in markets which are broad and moving.因为在窄小的、停滞的市场里总有出乎意料的可能，在这样的市场里应该比在宽广的、运动的市场里投入较少的资本来承担风险。 42. Limit the risk in any one trade to a maximum of 10 and the risk in all open trades to a maximum of 25 of trading capital. (risk =
26、pct of available capital). Determine this each day, adding profits and subtracting losses in open trades, and combine this net figure with your trading capital.将你每一手交易的风险控制在百分之十以内。将你所有持仓的交易的总风险控制在最多不超过交易资本的百分之二十五（风险=可用资本的百分比）。每天对此加以计算，在持仓交易中加上盈利，减去亏损，再把这一数字同你的交易资本结合起来。 43. It does not take much capi
27、tal to trade a market if one has knowledge and understanding. St. Paul said, “when I am weak I am strong.”如果你懂得和理解一个市场，做交易并不需要很多资本。圣保尔说过，“我在软弱时则强壮”。 44. Speech may be silver but “Silence is Golden”. Traders with the golden touch do not talk.言谈可能是银子，可“沉默是金子”。有点金术的交易商稀于言谈。 45. Common trading errors in
28、clude: A) trading without good reasons. B) trading on hope rather than facts. C) overloading without regard for capital.常见的交易错误包括：A、理由不充分的交易；B、基于希望多于事实的交易；C、与资本不相称的超量交易。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,46. “I like the short side of the market because there is usually less company”. The mob is usually wr
29、ong. It is usually long.“我喜欢市场看空的一边，因为通常这里人要少一些”。蜂拥之众通常是错的，它通常是看多。 47. A fatal mistake made by the fundamental trader is to take small profits. This is the result of limited vision ? extremes always seem silly to men of so called good judgment.初学交易的人的一个致命的错误是稍有赢利就出手。这是目光短浅的结果对所谓的明智的人来说，走极端总是愚蠢的。 48.
30、 Trade only when you have a good reason on an appraisal of fundamentals and using chart action for confirmation and timing of entry and exit.只有当你根据基本面的分析作出估价，运用图表行为加以证实，并策划好入市和出市的时间，只有当这些加在一起为你提供了充足的理由时，再做交易。 49. Believe that “the big one is possible” be there when it starts. Have the gross power to
31、 act, be rested mentally and physically, and finally let your profits run and cut your losses quickly.相信“大的未必不可能”一旦大的发生了，不至于手忙脚乱。让综合的力量自己行动，精神上和肉体上都休息充分，最终让你的利润滚动，迅速地砍掉你的损失。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,50. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thi
32、nks about all day long.大胆做梦，敢于想象。很少有人把目标设得过高。一个人从早到晚在思考什么，他最终就变成什么。 51.Commodity trading is the art of regarding fear as the greatest sin and giving up as the greatest mistake. It is the art of accepting failure as a step toward victory.期货交易是一门把恐惧看作是最大的罪恶，把放弃看作是最大的错误的艺术。它是一门把接受失败看作是向胜利走近一步的艺术。 52.Ha
33、ve you taken a loss? Forget it quick. If you have taken a profit, forget it quicker. Dont let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.你输过吗？尽快忘了它。你要是赢过，忘它忘得更快一些。不要让自我和贪婪妨碍清晰的思维和刻苦的工作。 53.The characteristics of realizing bull market are: a. a fundamental bullish situation b. a reluctance by
34、 specs to buy c. an inversion or small carrying charge between cash and futures d. business interests are either cautious or bullish识别牛市有下列的特征： a.从基本面上看，有一个牛市的情势 b.专业商不情愿去买 c.现货同期货之间倒挂或只有少量的持有费用 d.商业兴趣或者是持谨慎态度，或者是看多,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,54.Always remember that weather markets are mercurial, e
35、xtreme in price fluctuations, and very difficult to master. Forecasts of weather beyond a few days are not reliable.始终记住，气候市场是变幻无常，价格变动剧烈，极难把握的市场。几天之外的天气预报就不可靠。 55.One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity nearly always lies through the
36、 open door.没有人能改变昨天发生的事。当一扇门关上时，另一扇门就打开了。越过打开的门，往往能找到更大的机会。 56.The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this, he is safe. When he ignores it, he is lost.对交易者来说，最深的
37、秘密就是放弃自己的意愿，屈从于市场的意愿。市场是真理，它反映出它所承担的所有的力量。只要交易者认识到这一点，他就是安全的。当他忽视这一点时，他就会失败。 57.Somewhere a change is occurring that can make you rich.在某一地方某种变化正在发生，它能使你变得富有。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,58.Beware of “fools disease” (i.e. Waiting for trades that youre sure are 100 pct profitable.) It is better never
38、 to let yourself believe that you are 100 pct sure of anything.警惕“愚人病”（也就是等待那些你百分之百肯定会赢利的交易）。你最好别让你自己相信你能对任何一件事百分之百地肯定。 59.A known fundamental is a useless fundamental.人人皆知的基本原理是毫无用处的基本原理。 60.Major trends are seldom broken unless market goes against trend for more than 3 consecutive days.除非市场连续三天同潮流
39、走反向，主要潮流很少会转移方向。 61.If a market doesnt do what you think it should and youre tired of waiting ， youd better be out of it.如果市场所做的不是你认为它应该做的，而你对等待已感到厌倦，你最好退出市。 62.Stay calm and maintain clear thinking when trading big positions.交易大宗头寸时，要保持冷静和头脑清醒。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,63.Reevaluate your positio
40、n in the market if charts have deteriorated and fundamentals have not developed as you expected.如果图形走弱，而且基本面的发展不像你所预期的那样，重新对你在市场的头寸作估价。 64.Above all be mentally prepared for the rigors of each trading day from the time you get up each morning until you go to bed at night.最重要的是在精神上对每个交易日的严峻场面作好准备，从每天
41、早晨你爬起来，一直到晚上回到床上。65.Do whatever is necessary to stay on top of the markets you are trading.竭尽全力，停留在你所交易的市场的顶部。 66.Believe that the market is stronger than you are. Do not try to fight the market.相信市场比你要强大。不要企图同市场抗争。 67.Beware of large positions that can control your emotions and feelings. In other w
42、ords dont be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.对那些会控制你情绪波动的大头寸保持警惕，也就是说，在市场上不要过分冒进。与其暴赢，不如缓进，稳扎稳打地积累资产。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,68.Capital preservation is just as important as capital appreciation.资本保存同资本增值一样要紧。 69.W
43、hen a markets gotten away and youve missed the first leg you should still consider jumping in even if it is dangerous and difficult.如果市场已经起步了而你错过了第一轮烽火，你不妨仍然考虑中途介入，即使这样做是危险而困难的。 70.Work hard at understanding the key factor(s) motivating the market(s) you are trading. In other words, the harder you w
44、ork the luckier youll be.交易时，努力去理解那些推动市场的关键因素。换句话说，越努力你就会越幸。 71.Remember that its better to trade a few big moves a year (and close them out profitably) than to trade constantly.记住，与其不断地交易，不如每年少交易几手（并在赢利时出手）。 72.Set an objective for each trade you enter and get out when you meet it. Dont be greedy!为
45、你的每一手交易设立一个目标，达到目标就出手。不要贪心！ 73.Remember that for many commodities ，politics are more important than economics.记住，对许多商品来说，政治比经济更重要。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,74.Never add to a losing position.不要在输钱的头寸上加码。 75.Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.挑选底部和顶部时要小心。 76. Worry about how much you can lose
46、. Figure risk reward ratio ahead of trade. Strive for at least 3x potential profit vs. loss.要想到你能够输多少钱，交易前就想好风险回报比例。尽力做到可能的盈利要三倍于可能的亏损。 77. If it appears that lots of bulls are long ， be nervous!如果看上去有很多多头在买，你就需要警惕起来。 78. If you have a good lead in the market and all the news seems too good to be tr
47、ue youd better take profits.如果你在市场上领先一筹，而且所有的消息都好得难以置信，你最好是收回你的盈利，出市走人。 79. The news always follows the market.新闻总是尾随市场之后。 80. There is only one side to the market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.市场只有一种，不是牛市或熊市，而是正确之市。,期货投机与套利,投机,交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言,81. A man must beli
48、eve in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game.如果有人想在这场游戏里生存，他必须相信自己和自己的判断力。 82. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you. “It was never my wishing that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting tight.” Men who can both be right and sit tight are un
49、common. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves. You must have the courage of your convictions and the intelligent patience to sit tight.大浪潮为你创造大笔财富。“为我带来大笔财富的从来就不是我的祈求。它从来都是因为我坐着不动。”能够既正确又坐着不动的人是不多见的。市场打不败他们，打败他们的是他们自己。一定要有坚韧的勇气和智慧的耐心，你才做得到坐着不动。 83. To buy on a rising market is a most c
50、omfortable way of buying. Buy on a scale up. Sell on a scale down.最不让人担心的买进方法是在一个上升的市场里买进。买高卖低。 84. Commodities are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, dont make a second unless the first shows a profit.商品没有高到不该再买的时候，也没有低到不该再卖的时候。不过，在最初的转手后，除非第一手交易获利了，不要再做第二手。,
