1、市场分析和预测 Marketing Analysis & Forecasting,教师：黎文 时间：2010.09 电子邮件： 联系电话：13826288208,议题,概述 市场竞争的层次 确定竞争者的方法 竞争者的选择 企业竞争,概述,在开始工作之前，产品/品牌经理必须对作为资料收集和分析对象的产品品类/品牌品类有一个较好的概念认识。 确定竞争时，不能确定太多的竞争者，也不能确定太少的竞争者。 竞争者就是和自己竞争相同顾客的企业，基于顾客的竞争；也可以是基于资源的竞争，基于供应商的竞争，或者基于营销活动的竞争，或者是地理位置的竞争。,竞争的基础,顾客导向的竞争 他们是谁：为相同预算产生的竞争
2、 他们什么时候使用 他们为什么使用：顾客寻求的利益/价值 营销导向的竞争：广告和促销 主题/文案策略 媒体 分销 价格 资源导向的竞争 原材料 雇员 财务资源 地理位置的竞争,市场竞争的层次,产品形式（product form）：通常追求同一个细分市场，特色属性都有相似性 产品品类（product category）：即经理们平时所理解的行业竞争 一般竞争（generic competition） 预算竞争（budget competition）,Levels of Competition*,Example 1: Energy Bar Competition,Odwalla,Power Bar
3、,Balance Bar,Clif,Energy Bars,Snack/Health Bars,Healthy Snacks,Other Snacks,Nutrigrain Bars,Slimfast Bars,Granola Bars,Fruits,Nuts,Juice,Crackers,Chips,Candy,Example 2: Super-Premium Ice Cream,Example 3: PDA,MP3 Phone Competition,Levels of Competition: Implications for Your Product Strategy,Budget,G
4、eneric,Product Category,Product Form,Competitive Level,Convince Customers that the Brand is Better than Others,Convince Customers that the Product Form is Best in the Category,Convince Customers that the Product Category is the Best Way to Satisfy Needs,Convince Customers that the Generic Benefits a
5、re the Most Appropriate Way to Spend their Money,Product Management Task,Methods for Determining Competitors*,Existing categories: ex) IRI; SIC NAICS Managerial judgment Customer-purchase-based measures* Customer-judgment-based measures*,Managerial Judgment of Competition,Markets,Same,Different,Prod
6、uct/Services,Same,Different,A,C,B,D,Customer-purchase-based measures*,Brand Switching Data The Extent of Substitutability among Brands Cross-Elasticity of Demand:Change in Brand Bs Sales/ Change in Brand As Price Mainly Used for Nondurable Products,Brand-Switching Matrix,Time t+1,Time t,Customer-Jud
7、gment-Based Measures*,Overall similarity (by Perceptual Mapping)* Similarity of consideration sets Product deletion (based on product unavailability) Substitution In Use:List all the uses of a productList other products that provides the same uses,Perceptual Mapping,Means graphic description of cust
8、omers perception about different brands/products. You can use it to gain Better understanding of market structure* Customer perceptions for a new product concept Direction for R&D efforts to satisfy customers better,Developing A Perceptual Map,Two Alternative ways Attribute Rating method (AR) Overal
9、l Similarity method (OS) Attribute Rating Method Data Cube (brands*attributes*respondents) Statistical Analysis (Factor Analysis) Find out two (or three) axes for the perceptual mapAttribute AnalysisLimitations Suitable for B-to-B products,Developing A Perceptual Map,Overall Similarity method (OS) S
10、uitable for consumer products and services Ask consumers perception the extent of similarity of pairs of items. Similarity Data Analysis (Multidimensional Scaling) You name the axes and infer the attributes,Defining Competition with Perceptual Mapping example: desserts,Moist,Needs refrigeration,Tapi
11、oca pudding mix,Local mix ,Pudding mix,Chocolate torte mix ,D-zer ta ,Jell-O,Canned pudding,Individual pie,Hostess cupcakes,Quick bread mix,Good for a coffee break ,As a formal dessert ,Homemade cake ,Bakery cake ,Homemade cookies,Cheese cake mix,“Snackin Cake” mix ,Frozen cake,Layer cake mix,“Stirn
12、 Frost cake mix,Takes a long time to prepare ,Bundt cake mix ,Custard mix,Boston crme pie mix “Light Style” cake mix,Coffee cake mix ,Bakery cookies ,Pillsbury cookie dough ,Cookie mix ,Easy to carry with me,In my school work lunch ,Between meal snack,Pepperidge Farm cookies,Oatmeal cookies,Frozen p
13、ie,Homemade pie,Date bar mix ,Brownie mix ,Bakery pie ,Methods versus Competition Levels and Information Required,Enterprise Competition in Financial Services,Two Key Things to Remember,How would you determine competition?Choose the focal level of competition*,Right Level of Competition for You*,Your Firms Market PositionTime HorizonIII. Product Life Cycle and Technology ChangeIV. Your Position in the Firm,
