1、 西南交通大学与国立南澳大学 MBA 学位论文 第 I 页 西 南 交 通 大 学国 立 南 澳 大 学工商管理硕士（MBA）学位论文成都市物流仓储设施市场投资分析年 级 2008 级 姓 名 陶磊 学 号 100107261 申请学位级别 工商管理硕士 二一八二一八年四月西南交通大学与国立南澳大学 MBA 学位论文 第 II 页 Classified Index:（此处填国内图书分类号）U.D.C:（此处填国际图书分类号）Southwest Jiaotong University however, the growth has been positive all along. Chengdu
2、s logistics facilities investment markets started to develop from 2005. Following the governments planning to develop Chengdu as the logistics centre in Western China, a number of new supplies completed in the newly developed logistics parks or centers in recent years. As the logistics market develo
3、ps, the old logistics and warehousing facilities could no longer meet the requirements of the modern logistics industry and the demands for high-quality logistics properties are increasing. While the challenging economic environment still plays a large role in business decisions, many companies cont
4、inue to look for ways to consolidate distribution networks from inefficient, moving from older facilities into newer distribution centers to increase efficiencies.The subject project, situated within Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park in the southwest of Chengdu, is one of key logistics parks planned b
5、y the Chengdu government. The site has good accessibility to both city centre and surrounding districts and counties as it is near well-developed transportation network comprising of highways, expressways and air transportation. The rental level of Class A warehouses ranges from RMB 17-24 per sqm pe
6、r month depending on different locations while that for Class B is about RMB 11-16 sqm per month. From 2006 to 2008, the average rent experienced an annual growth rate of 4.8% to RMB 17.22 per sqm per month. Up to 3Q2009, the rent increased by 8.3% to RMB 19.51/sqm/month.The great increase is attrib
7、uted by the strong demand from logistics service stations and Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park. Despite the large supply in future, we conservatively expect that the rent will still increase by 3% y-o-y, which is driven by the completion of high-quality warehouse facilities, increase of land price, c
8、onstruction cost and the demand from relocation (from East Railway Station), upgrading (for time-efficiency logistics facilities) and new-西南交通大学与国立南澳大学 MBA 学位论文 第 VII 页 setup (for high-quality logistics facilities). From 2007 to 2008, the vacancy rate averaged at 14% but increase to 26% as of 3Q2009
9、. There is no distinct difference between Class A and Class B regarding to the vacancy number. With the completion of four projects in 4Q09, we expect by end-2009, the vacancy rate will soar to 47%. Based on assumption from historical data and demand projection, we estimate the vacancy rate will sta
10、y at 20% by end 2013.There are large supplies in the future, which will bring competition and affect the future investment yield of logistic properties.Chengdus logistics market is still in its infancy and majority existing tenants are cost sensitive. It will take time for them to shift away from wa
11、rehousing for storage purposes towards other higher value activities. As for the subject project, the high rental will undermine its competitiveness given the fact that there will be a number of competitors in Chengdu. In Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park, supportive facilities still lag behind includ
12、ing transportation to downtown, canteen and accommodation, which are expected to be completed in 2-3 years.The rental level for the subject project will keep flat from 2009 to 2011, but increase after 2012 when the market becomes more mature and the improvement of infrastructure and supportive facil
13、ities of the subject area is expected. It will take about 2-3 years for the subject project to be mostly occupied after its completion. Key words: Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park, Rental、Supply、Vacancy西南交通大学与国立南澳大学 MBA 学位论文 第 VIII 页 目 录第 1 章 绪 论 .11.1 选题的意义和背景 .11.2 文章结构 .2第 2 章 物流仓储设施发展环境 .32.1中国物流
14、发展现状分析及发展趋势 .32.2成都经济发展分析 .42.2.1 GDP发展趋势 .42.2.2 第一、二、三产业比重变化趋势 .52.2.3 外商直接投资变化趋势 .62.2.4规模以上的工业增加值 .62.2.5社会消费品零售总额变化趋势 .72.2.5社会消费品零售总额变化趋势 .72.2.6 进出口额变化趋势 .72.2.7货运量变化趋势 .72.3区域交通基础设施发展分析 .92.3.1中西部地区的铁路核心枢纽 .92.3.2中西部地区的公路货运枢纽 .1123.3 便捷的内陆出海通道 .122.3.4中西部最大的国际航空港 .142.4 成都市政府物流发展规划及扶持政策分析 .1
15、52.4.1成都物流产业规划 .152.4.2物流产业扶持政策 .162.4.3成都市政府震后投资 .16第 3 章 项目选址分析及物流仓储市场分析 .173.2.1物流仓储设施分类 .173.2.2 物流仓储设施供应分析 .173.2.3 物流仓储设施需求分析 .213.2.4 物流仓储设施租金分析 .243.2.5 物流仓储设施竞争分析 .243.2.6 物流仓储设投资风险分析 .24第 4 章 项目投资方案评价 .264.1 投资方案评价指标 .264.1.1净现值（NPV） .264.1.2内部收益率（IRR） .274.2 投资方案评价指标分析 .28结 论 .31参考文献 .33西
16、南交通大学与国立南澳大学 MBA 学位论文 第 1 页 第 1 章 绪 论1.1 选题的意义和背景高效的物流体系是中国经济持续增长和现代化的关键因素。随着对中国商品的国际和国内需求持续增长，物流行业需要迅速扩张才能为中国的制造商和零售商提供高效和高性价比的服务。这对该巨大的市场需求，全球已有众多的工业投资基金介入其中，投资符合现代物流标准的物流仓储设施，通过获得高于市场平均水平的租金，享有长期稳定的回报。成都物流仓储市场处于逐步成熟过程中，如何投资该非成熟市场，本文从宏观、微观层面逐步分析，以证明该市场的投资价值。中国的物流市场尚处于起步阶段，对现代物流物业的大量需求与监管障碍及缺乏市场透明度
17、之间的矛盾，给物流房地产行业带来了巨大的机遇和挑战。目前的物流业务集中于三个主要地区绝大部分接受调查企业的仓储设施（85%）都集中在三个主要地区：长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和环渤海地区。最为集中的是以上海（ 3 2 % ） 为中心的长江三角洲（43%） 。珠江三角洲和环渤海地区（各 21%）目前的集中程度都低于长江三角洲。在珠江三角洲地区较为集中的是广州（11%）和深圳（9%） 。在环渤海地区，主要集中在北京（13%）和天津（4%） 。在这三个主要地区以外，成都所占比例也比较大（5%） 。此外，只有厦门和沈阳超过了 1%的比例。未来的物流业务仍将集中在这三大地区，但会从上海和北京分流。从未来计划（
18、未来两年）来看，物流业务仍将集中在三个主要地区（保持在 85%） 。但会有一定的物流业务从上海和长江三角洲（27%）分流出来，流向珠江三角洲（35%） ，尤其是广州（19%）和深圳（15%） 。该地区目前已大量投资于道路、铁路和港口基础设施。环渤海地区也在许多公司的未来计划范围内，但更多的增长将出现在天津（8%） ，而不是北京（13%） 。西南交通大学与国立南澳大学 MBA 学位论文 第 2 页 在这三大地区之外，成都是企业扩展规划的重点（11%的被调查企业准备在成都设立新的物流设施） 。其他超过 1%的城市包括青岛和武汉运输基础设施和市场是选址决策的主要考虑因素运输基础设施、市场和供应商是选择仓储地点首要考虑的因素。上述的三个主要地区拥有最好的运输基础设施、最大的消费者市场和最深的供应商网络。1.2 文章结构本文共分为四大部分：第 1章绪论部分，主要综述文章的选题意义与背景，并以此为铺垫，引入正文；第 2章关于物流仓储设施发展环境，主要是分别从中国物流发展现状分析及发展趋势，成都经济发展分析，区域交通基础设施发展分析和成都市政府物流发展规划及扶持政策分析四个方面进行剖析，试图从宏观环境的分析证明项目的投资价值；第 3章详细从项目选址及物流仓储市场分析入手，指出成都微观投资环境价值；第 4章则结合项目投资方案评价指标，对投资项目进行测算，确定项目的投资价值。
