1、非机密,二O一O年六月,麦肯锡PPT图表案例集锦,整理：ExcelPro的图表博客,1,免责声明,本文件根据网络上流传的mkx公司咨询报告整理，集合了部分与图表分析相关的页面。 本文件为防止侵害企业机密，凡涉及企业名称、机密或数据的，均已隐去企业名称。 本文件仅供个人学习研究之用，不得用于任何商业用途，请于下载后24小时内删除！你可以从中了解和学习： 何谓专业有效的分析图表 这些图表可能的制作方法 如何在PPT中排版和布局图表 以及一些数据分析的思路和方法,2,麦肯锡制作的图表都遵循标准的格式,1993,6,10,9*,14,16,零售商 批发商,1994,1995,1996,1997,对甲产
2、品的需求在过去5年已经增长了2倍多,甲产品的市场需求,百万元,* 1995年2月在甲产品包装容器中发现有毒物质资料来源: 甲公司； 调研公司,资料来源(Source)赋于数据可信度，使我们可以用来作为参考,3,中国数据市场发展估计会很迅速，但是价格调整对市场大小的影响还很难预测,* 包括VPN、服务器托管等增值业务 资料来源： MSDW 分析报告,亿元,119,166,231,625,1999,2000,2001,2005,数据增值服务*,出租电路,62%,62,61,60,38,38,39,40,但是最新价格调整政策对市场影响会如何？,30%,32%,29%,年复合增长率 2000-2005
3、,4,产品优化型行为态度分析,态度上是表现出积极高价值消费人群的特征,产品使用比较集中在以下种类,明确的高价值群体,比一般人更多地知道电信产品,我愿意多付些钱来购买更好的产品质量,知道了IP服务就马上用了,总话费,市话费,上网,直拨长途,平均水平,最高水平,产品优化型 总体,平均每人知道的产品数量,优化产品型,（RMB）,（百分比）,拨号上网,ISDN,来电显示,呼叫转移,（百分比）,5,依据对五大“关键因素”的不同偏好，消费者可分为五个细分市场,业务种类品质,网络质量,整体沟通水平,总体100%,帐单/费率满意度,优化产品型,服务至上型,超额消费型,基本保障型,重在产品，包括实用性、选择性和
4、质量表现,重在产品获取最大化和电信的有效沟通,重在服务，包括申办和维护等,重在基本需求的满足和保障,需要产品切合使用，同时有效推广说服,26%,19%,15%,10%,30%,跟随型,售中售后服务,6,对XX电信最具吸引力的细分市场是优化产品型和服务至上型,优化产品型服务优生型超额消费型跟随型基本保障型,2619151030,321.513,人口比例 （%）,评分,156138189139113,32131,总月费 （RMB）,评分,23221,购买产 品量,总评分,32211,评分,评分,价值,营销可 行性,评分,4.75.94.65.03.9,7,目前，商业用户是长话市场主体，但住宅用户将
5、有显著增长,电话线分布，1998 100%=1.05亿条,住宅用户,商业用户,国内长途 百分比,530,1998,2005,亿分钟,100%=,住宅用户,商业用户,国际长途 百分比,18,亿分钟,住宅用户,商业用户,1998,2005,3,100,110,资料来源： EIU Pyramid Research；麦肯锡市场调查与分析,8,MESSAGING, INFORMATION AND ENTERTAINMENT WILL BE KEY OFFERINGS FOR MOBILE PROFESSIONALS AND MODERN YOUTH IN THE NEAR TERM,% of peopl
6、e interested,Mobile professionals, N 370,Messaging/email,Information (stock quotes, news, weather, restaurants),M-shopping,M-stock trading,M-advertising,Entertainment (ring tone & screen download),Source: Survey research; Team analysis,Modern youth, N 500,17.1,19.8,21.0,22.1,61.2,90.0,19.5,35.1,23.7
7、,25.7,68.7,86.3,9,4.1 xx集团目前薪酬水平低于市场标准,对广电的启示需增强广电薪酬竞争力 将薪酬增长的重点放在高层管理人员上,市场行情 (外资企业的中国员工),广电集团目前薪酬,薪酬总额* 人民币/年,级,1,2,3,4,5,职位等级,在较低层级，广电的薪酬水平同市场接近,* 不包括股票期权,资料来源： 麦肯锡分析,而在较高层级，广电则同市场有明显差距,10,建议SEPG采取以下平均总薪酬曲线,人民币/年,改进后的SEPG薪酬(包含期权),1,2,3,4,5,改进后的SEPG薪酬(不含期权),SEPG目前薪酬总额,职位等级,市场行情,在等级2和3，SEPG不太可能遇到外资
8、公司对人才的竞争，这也反映在薪酬水平上 如果SEPG在吸引这些人才时遇到困难，其薪酬水平可能要相应调整 最难吸引的人才(如等级4和5)应享受等于或高于市场的薪酬水平,11,中国长途电信市场将保持增长趋势,中国国内长途通话时间* 亿分钟,* 已考虑资费的下调，包括VOIP和普通电路交换长途 资料来源： Merill Lynch 分析报告,中国国际长途国内主叫通话时间* 亿分钟,1999,2000,2001,2005,20%,年复合增长率 2000-2005,17%,年复合增长率 2000-2005,1999,2000,2001,2005,联通业务发展的前景乐观,12,xx联通的数据固定业务起步较
9、晚，而且发展相对 较慢,投入运行日期,* 主营业务收入，不包括GSM入网费 资料来源： xx联通财务处,VOIP,1999年8月,业务收入 2000年10月 (万元),占xx联通通信业务收入比例* (%),长途(193),2000年7月,数据专线,2000年8月,IDC,2000年10月,N.A.,xx联通的数据固定业务单元规模还有限,运营维护： 27人 销售营销： 19人,13,* 05 forecast use low case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction * Major European countries
10、include: UK, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, SwedenSource: JP Morgan; WEFA-WMM; MII; McKinsey analysis,Japan,CHINA IS THE WORLDS LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2001,US,Major European* countries,CAGR = 30%,CAGR = 14%,CAGR = 7%,Number of mobile subscribe
11、rs Millions,CAGR = 13%,China low case*,China high case*,CAGR = 22%,14,然而，xx联通要完成明年的长途业务收入指标，任务比较艰巨,xx数据市场的发展速度* 百万元人民币,* 根据xxGDP/全国GDP比例进行的测算 资料来源： 麦肯锡小组分析,2000E,2001E,775,985,增加210,联通明年收入指标要增加4,300万元,xx联通今年数据业务市场占有率仅为2.5%，明年要在新增业务市场占据20%的份额，总市场占有率达到6%，任务是相当艰巨的,15,中国数据业务市场发展迅速,亿元，人民币,资料来源： MSDW Rese
12、arch,1999,2000E,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,CAGR=23%,16,-,-,+,税项 人民币亿元,固定资产和其它营业资产 人民币亿元,该集团的投资资本回报较低,1993,1994,1995,10%,5.0,6.6,投资资本回报 百分比,资料来源： 年度报告；麦肯锡分析,23,23,35,税后营业净利润 人民币亿元,230,461,530,投资资本 人民币亿元,228,463,514,2,-2,16,2,6,8,25,29,43,101,138,185,76,109,142,利、税前利润 人民币亿元,营运资本 人民币亿元,销售收入 人民币亿元,经营
13、成本 人民币亿元,举例说明,17,该集团实际上在破坏价值,经济利润,资料来源：年度报告；麦肯锡分析,人民币亿元,9.9,-12.0,-5.3,差幅,百分比,4.3,-2.6,-1.0,投资资本,人民币亿元,230,461,530,投资资本回报,百分比,10%,5.0,6.6,资本成本,百分比,5.7%,7.6,7.6,债务成本,百分比,4%,4,4,权重=85%,67%,67%,权重= 15%,股权成本,百分比,15%,15,15,-,X,举例说明,18,经验表明，对于周期性强的行业来说，企业价值最大化来自于明智的工厂买卖和财务杠杆的使用,Source: McKinsey analysis,在
14、产能紧张时自建厂,在整个周期中均匀地通过 自建厂扩大产能,在周期低谷，产能富裕时建厂,在周期低谷时通过买厂来 增加产能,利用财务杠杆来买厂,在合适的时机通过财务杠杆来买卖工厂,358.0,石化行业举例,投资回报率 百分比,19,说明,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,年递增率 2001-2005,X,X,X,X,X,单位：百万美元,产品1,产品2,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,100%=,X%,产品3,X%,X%,X%,X%,X%,市场及竞争态势 市场需求市场规模预测,示意,20,替代品威胁性分析买家对替代品的接受程度,用户对各产
15、品的接受程度指数 * 市场调查结果，样本N,替代品1,替代品2,替代品3,替代品n,. . .,* 15打分，1表示完全不接受，5表示完全接受,对各替代品优劣势的评价替代品1替代品2替代品3替代品n,. . .,示意,21,所有者权益的预测方法举例,当年末的所有者权益=上年末所有者权益+当年留存收益+调整项,资料来源： 财务模型,十亿元人民币,213.1,28.5,11.5,45.0,275.1,1999年末所有者权益,2000年净利润,2000年红利,所有者权益的注入,2000年末所有者权益,22,SEPG集团管理层薪酬总额范围根据职位不同而 不同,税前薪酬*,* 不包括股票期权 资料来源：
16、麦肯锡分析,人民币,50,000,85,000,董事会成员,23,亿元人民币,2005年xx移动的无线语音业务占到整体收入及利润的近80%,100%=81.3,无线语音,收入,无线数据,固线VOIP,固线数据,100%=59.4,无线语音,折旧息税前利润(EBITDA),无线数据,固线VOIP,固线数据,24,亿元人民币,xx电信市场预测,无线语音,无线数据,固线VOIP,固线数据,2000,2002,2005,年递增率,6%,179%,53%,51%,理性竞争,25,亿元人民币,2000-2005年xx移动通信收入预测,年递增率,理性竞争,无线数据有关的语音(2.8),2005年 市场份额,
17、固线VOIP(4.6),无线数据(8.3),固线数据(4.5),无线语音* (61.2),164,156,173,132,3,%,%,74,26,72,12,73,( )2005年相关业务收入,* 无线语音在2002年的收入减少是由于单向收费的实施,26,xx移动2000-2005年折旧息税前利润率预测,无线语音,百分比,无线数据,固线VOIP,固线数据,N/A,2000,2002,2005,27,xx移动每年需投入约20亿人民币用于基础设施建设,亿元人民币,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,激烈竞争,理性竞争,有限竞争,2005,28,亿元人民币,xx移动2000-2005年
18、年度资本投入预测,理性竞争,2000,无线语音,无线数据,固线VOIP,固线数据,2001,2002,2003,2004,里程碑,无线语音,推出第三代移动通信技术,无线数据,推出GPRS技术,固线VOIP,建成30个IP网关,覆盖范围增加10个城市,固线数据,开始投资于LMDS基础设施，以达到营运规模,完成LMDS基站网络覆盖,2005,29,1997-2001 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30% CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16% THROUGH
19、2005,Revenues US$ Billions,CAGR vs. other industries (1997-2001) Percent,Mobile,Fixed line,Paging,CAGR 30%,CAGR 16%,Source: Deutsche Bank; McKinsey analysis,30,* Revenues do not equal the product of ARPU as subscriber figures are provided for year end, not average subscribers during a year. Detailed
20、 information on the timing of new subscriptions and churn required for the calculation of average subscribers during a given year is not available* All CAGRs are calculated on the announced data Source: Deutsche Bank; JP Morgan; MII,EXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE EV
21、OLUTION, MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITION,Mobile revenues* $ Billions,Number of subscribers low case Millions,CAGR 30%,CAGR 16%,CAGR 83%,ARPU US$/month,CAGR -24%,CAGR -7%,Penetration initially low Government backing for increasing subscriber numbers Relatively
22、low fixed line penetration Low-end prepaid subscriber increase,Drivers,Decline due to increased prepaid and lower spending by late entrants Tariff reduction as competition increases Slightly off-set by increase in data traffic in later years,CAGR 19%,208,235,263,291,17,16,15,15,Announced,Effective,3
23、1,* 05 forecast use low case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction * Major European countries include: UK, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, SwedenSource: JP Morgan; WEFA-WMM; MII; McKinsey analysis,Japan,CHINA IS THE WORLDS LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OV
24、ERTAKEN THE US IN 2001,US,Major European* countries,CAGR = 30%,CAGR = 14%,CAGR = 7%,Number of mobile subscribers Millions,CAGR = 13%,China low case*,China high case*,CAGR = 22%,32,CHINAS MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2001
25、,* Afirca, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Canada* Forecast of 02-05 use the high case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reductionSource: JP Morgan; Gartner 2001; Deutsche Bank; Merrill Lynch; Piper Jaffray,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001E,207,300,482,727,965,1,178,1,393,1,633,100% =,Global mobile s
26、ubscribers Million subscribers; percent,Western Europe,US,South and Latin,Japan and Asia Pacific,China*,Rest of world*,CAGR 1997-2005 percent,29,18,45,28,47,45,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,1,850,33,CHINAS MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY,* 02-05 forecast are net subs after inactive and mu
27、lti-sim-card reduction Source: IDC report; JP Morgan report; McKinsey analysis,Net subscriber* additions Millions,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,108,47,133,-9,8,-47,1,1,Annual growth Percent,1,2,3,7,9,12,13,15,16,Penetration Percent,47.1,43.9,46.3,45.7,5.5,11.5,16.9,39.4,35.9,Low c
28、ase,High case,Low,108,47,103,-9,22,5,-1,3,High,Low,High,1,2,3,7,9,12,16,19,23,34,* 02-05 forecast are net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction* Acquired by CMHK from parent in Oct 2000Source: JP Morgan; Industry interviews; McKinsey analysis,PROPORTION OF EACH OPERATORS SUBSCRIBERS* INCL
29、UDED IN LISTED ENTITY,Millions, percent,China Mobile,23.5,37.8,66.3,111.0,108.4,112.9,118.7,126.6,1998,1999,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,66,61,68,65,66,66,CMHK,100%=,Unicom,1.5,5.2,18.7,44.0,47.0,55.2,63.5,67.8,1998,1999,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,62,63,65,61,61,62,Unicom Listed,100%=,
30、86,82,CMHK Provinces Beijing* Fujian Guangdong Guangxi* Hainan Hebei* Henan,Jiangsu Liaoning* Shandong* Shanghai* Tianjin* Zhejiang,Unicom (HK) Provinces Anhui Beijing Fujian Guangdong Hebei Hubei,Jiangsu Liaoning Shandong Shanghai Tianjin Zhejiang,41,28,35,RESULTS OF A CHINESE WIRELESS SURVEY (2000
31、) INDICATED STRONG INTEREST IN MOBILE DATA SERVICES,* Internet user number is significantly higher than Internet subscription number, because of the sharing Internet access among usersSource: Mobile user survey, 2000,Very interested,Interested,Not interested,Neutral,Very disinterested,Key sample cha
32、racteristics Interview of 100 randomly chosen respondents in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, representing a good cross-section of different types of mobile users 68% of respondents express interest in receiving data services 20% of respondents are fixed line internet users* Median Internet usage of
33、 30 hours/month Median mobile bill of RMB 300/month,36,CONSUMERS HAVE GREATEST INTEREST IN EMAIL AND MOBILE VAS,Source: Mobile user survey, 2000,Interested,Neutral,Not interested,E-mail,Inter-net brows-ing,News/ sports/ Enter-tain-ment,Stock quotes,City map,Flight/ train sche-dule and reser-vation,Y
34、ellowpages,Percentage of respondents,Interest in content delivered over mobile,For content, Chinese consumers show greatest interest in email, flight/train scheduling and reservation, and news For transaction, mobile VAS and m-banking are the most popular m-commerce applications for Chinese consumer
35、s,Mobile VAS (billing, location, etc.),Mobile banking,Inter- active games,Percentage of respondents,Interest in transactions delivered over mobile,37,CHINAS WIRELESS DATA SERVICES EXPECTED TO GROW QUICKLY,Source: IDC report; Literature research; McKinsey analysis,ESTIMATE,Voice only Data and voice,N
36、umber of mobile subscribers Millions, Percent,43,87,145,155-161,176-207,197-253,218-300,05E,04E,03E,02E,01E,00,99,43%,26%,15%,9%,4%,Revenue from wireless data US$ billions,05E,04E,03E,02E,01E,2.6,171,3.3,3.0,2.7,Wireless data service ARPU/month/actual user US$,Low case High case,5.4,2.5,1.1,0.4,0.1,
37、155,CAGR,38,HANDSET AND PDA MANUFACTURERS WILL FURTHER DRIVE MOBILE DATA,Source: IDC; CCID; SINO-MR; Gartner; Interviews; Cahners In-Stat Group; literature search; Team analysis,Number of handset units sold Millions,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,23%,30%,45%,63%,86%,90%,45.0,54.9,46.6,57.5,65.6,
38、44.6,Number of PDA units sold Millions,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,2%,2%,11%,31%,56%,82%,6.8,8.3,11.9,17.3,25.0,5.6,Number of mobile device units sold Millions,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,23%,30%,44%,58%,74%,69%,45.2,55.8,50.3,67.2,86.1,44.7,CAGR,CAGR,Non-internet enabled,Internet enab
39、led,Other,Wireless,24%,14%,7%,2%,0.3%,0.3%,Internet enabled handset,Wireless PDA,14%,42%,-28%,42%,8%,-28%,CAGR,193%,35%,-4%,183%,Non-data enabled,2001,2005,Comparison of unit shipment in China vs. US Millions,China US,39,CHINA UNICOM HAS LAUNCHED NATIONWIDE CDMA NETWORK AS BASIS OF CDMA2000 NETWORK,
40、Capacity of subs, Million,2001,2002E,2005E,15,20,50,CDMA2000 1XRTT,IS-95,Source: Literature search, industry interviews,Technology,CAGR 35%,40,TOSHIBAS GLOBAL NET SALES BY BUSINESS SEGMENT,Source: Toshiba web site, Lit Search,Yea 2000 ( billion),Information & Communications & Industrial Systems 1,85
41、8,Power Systems 571,Electronic Devices & Components 1,477,Digital Media 1,518,Home Appliances 660,Others473,41,DALIAN TOSHIBAS MARKET POSITION IN CHINAS PJTV MARKET: NO. 1 MARKET SHARE LEADER,Source: GFK, internal interview, literature search, external interviews: Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba,Key trends
42、,Rationale,Established MNCs, Toshiba, Sony will continue to dominate market Local players start establishing themselves by 2005,High-end producers with superior technology in pixel resolution and brightnessLocal players expected to acquire key PJTV technologies as of 2003As comparison, Changhong alo
43、ne now controls 20% of large screen CRTV market, local players likely to gain similar share in PJTV market,Market share by sales Percent,Local (Konka Changhong, etc),Other MNCs,Hitachi,Panasonic,Samsung,Sony,Toshiba,1999,2000,100%,100%,42,TOSHIBA IS GENERALLY A MEDIUM TO HIGH-END PLAYER, PARTICULARL
44、Y STRONG IN USD 2.5-3.5K PRICE BRAND,Source: IDC,0.9,Low (0-2k),Medium (2-2.5k),High (2.5-3.5k),100% =,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.7,3.5,1.4,0.1,0.08,Premium (3.5K),2.2,Toshibas market share,0.1,Sales by customer segments Percent of units shipment (M), 2000,Others,Dell,IBM,Founder,Legend,Acer,Toshiba,43,TOSHIB
45、AS HISTORICAL REVENUES AND PROFITS,Net Sales,CAGR = 1.9%,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,Net Income,CAGR = 9.4%,*,Source: Toshiba 2001 Annual Report, Lit search,Yen billion,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,44,DESPITE OF STRONG GROWTH OF TOTAL MARKET, TOSHIBA NOTEBOOK HAS EXPERIENCED STAGNANT GROWTH OF 4.4% ANNUALL
46、Y,Notebook revenue (RMB billions),Source: IDC,Toshiba in China,1999,2000,1998,98-00 CAGR Percent,Total China market,1999,2000,1998,98-00 CAGR Percent,48.6,4.8,6.1,10.6,4.4,1.6,1.5,1.7,45,xx汽车在建立经销商网络和销售业绩方面已经取得了显著的进步,16,000,30,000,2000,2001,在中国的xx汽车 A6销售,在中国的xx汽车经销商数量,辆,* 包括2家维修站* * 包括10家维修站 资料来源：xx
47、汽车,年底,*,(预测),年至今,46,然而本田获得了特别显著的成功,* 包括非三位一体的经销商* 包括10家维修站 资料来源：China Auto 2000; 麦肯锡分析,本田 雅阁,xx汽车 A6,通用 别克,销售量,辆，2001年1月至9月,经销商数量 2001年*,比上年的增长率 百分比,47,xx汽车在提高品牌形象方面已经取得了很大进步，但仍需继续努力，以实现其远大的目标,超豪华,豪华,中国品牌形象,超豪华进口车,豪华进口车,豪华国产车,豪华国产车,销量,0,5,000,10,000,20,000,30,000,40,000,50,000,远景目标 2005,远景目标 2003,过去
48、作为政府用车的xx汽车形象,xx汽车在中国的工作重点,通过提高经销商销售和服务能力,实现稳定快速的销售增长通过向顾客交付出众的销售和售后服务体验，提升品牌形象至与众不同的层次，以应对中国进入世贸后日趋激烈的国际竞争,?,资料来源：访谈，麦肯锡分析,2000 实际,现状,48,我们将把xx汽车经销商的表现与主要客户购买因素进行对比,关键购买因素,经销商服务,对比评分,经销商信誉,专卖,及时交货,销售队伍质量,价格,汽车执照代办服务,保险服务,展示厅质量,经销商位置,贷款,0,1,2,3,4,5,对xx汽车的启示,我们将专门制定经销商业绩提高举措，以解决与客户期望及国内主要竞争对手之间的主要业绩差距 更重要的是，我们的业绩改善措施必须确保xx汽车及其经销商在未来3-5年内仍旧在竞争日益激烈的中国市场具备竞争力,xx汽车,竞争对手 1,竞争对手 2,仅供演示,49,人民币百万,我们还将把经销商的经济效益与竞争对手进行对比，以确定潜在的提高杠杆,对xx汽车的启示,我们需要确认改善现有经销商经营状况的短期举措，并进行优先排序经销商财务效益提高的改进方案必须与经销商商内部财务管理流程的建立和完善相结合，以确保经销商长期的业绩改善,仅供演示,50,对模块排序,旧优先权 建议列入新优先权 检测新优先权,
