1、 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 1 of 41 White Paper Cisco Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 20132018 What You Will Learn The Cisco Global Cloud Index (GCI) is an ongoing effort to forecast the growth of global data center and cl
2、oud-based IP traffic. The forecast includes trends associated with data center virtualization and cloud computing. This document presents the details of the study and the methodology behind it. Forecast Overview Global Data Center Traffic Annual global data center IP traffic will reach 8.6 zettabyte
3、s (715 exabytes EB per month) by the end of 2018, up from 3.1 zettabytes (ZB) per year (255 EB per month) in 2013. Global data center IP traffic will nearly triple (2.8-fold) over the next 5 years. Overall, data center IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2
4、013 to 2018. Data Center Virtualization and Cloud Computing Growth By 2018, more than three quarters (78 percent) of workloads will be processed by cloud data centers; 22 percent will be processed by traditional data centers. Overall data center workloads will nearly double (1.9-fold) from 2013 to 2
5、018; however, cloud workloads will nearly triple (2.9-fold) over the same period. The workload density (that is, workloads per physical server) for cloud data centers was 5.2 in 2013 and will grow to 7.5 by 2018. Comparatively, for traditional data centers, workload density was 2.2 in 2013 and will
6、grow to 2.5 by 2018. 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 2 of 41 Public vs. Private Cloud By 2018, 31 percent of the cloud workloads will be in public cloud data centers, up from 22 percent in 2013. (CAGR of 33 percent from 2013 to 2018). By 201
7、8, 69 percent of the cloud workloads will be in private cloud data centers, down from 78 percent in 2013. (CAGR of 21 percent from 2013 to 2018). Global Cloud Traffic Annual global cloud IP traffic will reach 6.5 ZB (541 EB per month) by the end of 2018, up from 1.6 ZB per year (137 EB per month) in
8、 2013. Global cloud IP traffic will nearly quadruple (3.9-fold) over the next 5 years. Overall, cloud IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 32 percent from 2013 to 2018. Global cloud IP traffic will account for more than three-fourths (76 percent) of total data center traffic by 2018. Cloud Service Deli
9、very Models By 2018, 59 percent of the total cloud workloads will be Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) workloads, up from 41 percent in 2013. By 2018, 28 percent of the total cloud workloads will be Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) workloads, down from 44 percent in 2013. By 2018, 13 percent of the tot
10、al cloud workloads will be Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) workloads, down from 15 percent in 2013. Internet of Everything (IoE) Potential Impact on Cloud Globally, the data created by IoE devices will reach 403 ZB per year (33.6 ZB per month) by 2018, up from 113.4 ZB per year (9.4 ZB per month) in 20
11、13. Globally, the data created by IoE devices will be 277 times higher than the amount of data being transmitted to data centers from end-user devices and 47 times higher than total data center traffic by 2018. Consumer Cloud Storage By 2018, 53 percent (2 billion) of the consumer Internet populatio
12、n will use personal cloud storage, up from 38 percent (922 million users) in 2013. Globally, consumer cloud storage traffic per user will be 811 megabytes per month by 2018, compared to 186 megabytes per month in 2013. Multiple-Device Ownership North America, followed by Western Europe, had the high
13、est average number of fixed devices per user, while Middle East and Africa, followed by Latin America, had the highest average number of mobile devices per user. 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 3 of 41 IPv6 Adoption Fosters Cloud Growth Glob
14、ally 24 percent of Internet users will be IPv6-capable by 2018. Globally, by 2018, nearly 50 percent of all fixed and mobile devices and connections will be IPv6-capable. Increased cloud provider deployments have had a positive impact on IPv6 content and its availability. From October 2013 to Octobe
15、r 2014, there has been nearly a 33-percent increase in the number of websites that are IPv6-capable. Regional Cloud Readiness Internet Ubiquity North America and Western Europe led in Internet access penetration (fixed and mobile) in 2013 and will continue to lead in this category through 2018. Howe
16、ver, all regions will show measurable improvement in broadband access to their respective populations throughout the forecast period. Network Speeds and Latency Western Europe leads all regions with an average fixed download speed of 20 Mbps. Asia Pacific follows with an average fixed download speed
17、 of 18.8 Mbps. Central and Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific lead all regions in average fixed upload speeds with nearly 12.2 Mbps. Asia Pacific leads all regions in average fixed network latency with 40 ms, followed by Western Europe with 46 ms. North America leads all regions with an average mobile
18、download speed of 10.1 Mbps. Western Europe follows with an average mobile download speed of 9.5 Mbps. Central and Eastern Europe and North America lead all regions in average mobile upload speeds with 4.9 Mbps and 4.3 Mbps respectively. North America and Western Europe lead all regions in average m
19、obile network latency with 101 ms and 113 ms, respectively. 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 4 of 41 Top Five Data Center and Cloud Networking Trends Over the last few years, the telecommunications industry has seen cloud adoption evolve from
20、 an emerging technology to an established networking solution that is gaining widespread acceptance and deployment. Enterprise and government organizations are moving from test environments to placing more of their mission-critical workloads into the cloud. For consumers, cloud services offer ubiqui
21、tous access to content and services, on multiple devices, delivered to almost anywhere network users are located. The following sections identify five important trends in data center and cloud networking that are accelerating traffic growth, changing the end-user experience, and placing new requirem
22、ents and demands on data center and cloud-based infrastructures. 1. Growth of Global Data Center Relevance and Traffic Data Center Traffic by Destination Data Center and Cloud IP Traffic Growth Business vs. Consumer Cloud Traffic 2. Continued Global Data Center Virtualization Public vs. Private Clou
23、d Workloads 3. Cloud Service Delivery Models (IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS) 4. Potential Cloud CatalystsInternet of Everything Consumer Cloud Storage Analysis Multiple-Device Ownership Accelerates Cloud IPv6 Adoption Fosters Cloud Growth 5. Global Cloud Readiness Internet Ubiquity Network Speeds and Latency
24、 Analysis 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 5 of 41 Trend 1: Growth of Global Data Center Relevance and Traffic The main qualitative motivators for cloud adoption include faster delivery of services and data, increased application performance,
25、 and improved operational efficiencies. Although security and integration with existing IT environments continue to represent concerns for some potential cloud-based applications, a growing range of consumer and business cloud services are currently available. Todays cloud services address varying c
26、ustomer requirements (for example, privacy, mobility, and multiple device access) and support near-term opportunities as well as long-term strategic priorities for network operators, both public and private. Quantitatively, the impact of cloud computing on data center traffic is clear. Most Internet
27、 traffic has originated or terminated in a data center since 2008, when peer-to-peer traffic (which does not originate from a data center but instead is transmitted directly from device to device) ceased to dominate the Internet application mix. Data center traffic will continue to dominate Internet
28、 traffic for the foreseeable future, but the nature of data center traffic is undergoing a fundamental transformation brought about by cloud applications, services, and infrastructure. The importance and relevance of the global cloud evolution is highlighted by one of the top-line projections from t
29、his updated forecastby 2018 seventy-six percent, or more than three-quarters of data center traffic, will be cloud traffic. The following sections summarize not only the volume and growth of traffic entering and exiting the data center, but also the traffic carried between different functional units
30、 within the data center, cloud versus traditional data center segments, and business versus consumer cloud segments. Global Data Center IP Traffic: Three-Fold Increase by 2018 Figure 1 summarizes the forecast for data center IP traffic growth from 2013 to 2018. Figure 1. Global Data Center IP Traffi
31、c Growth Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 20132018 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 6 of 41 Although the amount of global traffic crossing the Internet and IP WAN networks is projected to reach 1.6 ZB per year by 20181, the amount of annual
32、global data center traffic in 2013 is already estimated to be 3.1 ZBand by 2018, will triple to reach 8.6 ZB per year. This increase represents a 23-percent CAGR. The higher volume of data center traffic is due to the inclusion of traffic inside the data center (typically, definitions of Internet an
33、d WAN stop at the boundary of the data center). The global data center traffic forecast, a major component of the Cisco GCI report, covers network data centers worldwide operated by service providers as well as private enterprises. Please refer to Appendix A for more details about the methodology of
34、 the data center and cloud traffic forecasts, and Appendix B for the positioning of the GCI Forecast relative to the Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast. Table 1 provides details for global data center traffic growth rates. Table 1. Global Data Center Traffic, 20132018 Data Center IP Traffic, 20132
35、018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR 20132018 By Type (EB per Year) Data center to user 513 643 797 979 1,196 1,457 23% Data center to data center 202 266 346 447 572 729 29% Within data center 2,350 2,920 3,587 4,373 5,303 6,389 22% By Segment (EB per Year) Consumer 1,789 2,328 2,966 3,724 4,629
36、5,726 26% Business 1,275 1,501 1,764 2,075 2,443 2,849 17% By Type (EB per Year) Cloud data center 1,647 2,277 3,050 3,994 5,131 6,496 32% Traditional data center 1,417 1,551 1,680 1,805 1,941 2,079 8% Total (EB per Year) Total data center traffic 3,065 3,829 4,730 5,798 7,072 8,574 23% Source: Cisc
37、o Global Cloud Index, 2014 Definitions: Data center to user: Traffic that flows from the data center to end users through the Internet or IP WAN Data center to data center: Traffic that flows from data center to data center Within data center: Traffic that remains within the data center Consumer: Tr
38、affic originating with or destined for consumer end users Business: Traffic originating with or destined for business end users Cloud data center: Traffic associated with cloud consumer and business applications Traditional data center: Traffic associated with non-cloud consumer and business applica
39、tions 1 Refer to: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 20132018. 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 7 of 41 Data Center Traffic Destinations: Most Traffic Remains Within the Data Center Consumer and business traffic flowing
40、through data centers can be broadly categorized into three main areas (Figure 2): Traffic that remains within the data center: For example, moving data from a development environment to a production environment within a data center, or writing data to a storage array Traffic that flows from data cen
41、ter to data center: For example, moving data between clouds, or copying content to multiple data centers as part of a content distribution network Traffic that flows from the data center to end users through the Internet or IP WAN: For example, streaming video to a mobile device or PC Figure 2. Glob
42、al Data Center Traffic by Destination Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 20132018 The portion of traffic residing within the data center will decline slightly over the forecast period, accounting for nearly 77 percent of data center traffic in 2013 and about 75 percent by 2018. Despite the decline, t
43、he majority of traffic remains within the data center because of factors such as the functional separation of application servers, storage, and databases, which generates replication, backup, and read and write traffic traversing the data center. Furthermore, parallel processing divides tasks and se
44、nds them to multiple servers, contributing to internal data center traffic. Traffic between data centers is growing faster than either traffic to end-users or traffic within the data center, and by 2018, traffic between data centers will account for almost 9 percent of total data center traffic, up
45、from nearly 7 percent at the end of 2013. The high growth of this segment is due to the increasing prevalence of content distribution networks, the proliferation of cloud services and the need to shuttle data between clouds, and the growing volume of data that needs to be replicated across data cent
46、ers. 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 8 of 41 Global Data Center and Cloud IP Traffic Growth Data center traffic on a global scale will grow at a 23-percent CAGR (Figure 3), but cloud data center traffic will grow at a faster rate (32 percent
47、 CAGR) or 3.9-fold growth from 2013 to 2018 (Figure 4). Figure 3. Total Data Center Traffic Growth Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 20132018 Figure 4. Cloud Data Center Traffic Growth Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 20132018 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is
48、Cisco Public. Page 9 of 41 Global cloud traffic crossed the zettabyte threshold in 2013, and by 2018, more than three-quarters of all data center traffic will be based in the cloud (for regional cloud traffic trends, please refer to Appendix C). Cloud traffic will represent 76 percent of total data
49、center traffic by 2018. Significant promoters of cloud traffic growth include the rapid adoption of and migration to cloud architectures and the ability of cloud data centers to handle significantly higher traffic loads. Cloud data centers support increased virtualization, standardization, and automation. These factors lead to better performance as well as higher capacity and throughput. Global Business and Consumer Cloud Growth For the purposes of this study, the Cis
