1、 , , , Vensim , : , , , , , , , , , : , ; , ; , ; ; ; ; ; ; ; , , , , , E-mail: (2016YFA0602800) Evaluation of CO2 emission reduction policies in Chinas power sector LIU Qiang TIAN Chuan ZHENG Xiaoqi CHEN Yi National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation; Abstract The powe
2、r sector in China has undergone significant development with remarkable achievements. Along with stronger carbon emission constrains, the Chinese government will launch more low-carbon policies and measures across the power sector, which makes it important to conduct a scientific evaluation of these
3、 policies and measures. Here we built a system dynamics model termed the Energy Policy Solution model, based on Vensim software and present a comprehensive analysis under Reference, Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios. The key indicators of the power sector, CO2 abatement contribution and a
4、batement costs of different policies are reviewed and evaluated. We found that many policies make a great contribution to CO2 emission control in the power sector, and if these policies can be combined appropriately, an earlier peak in CO2 emission in the power sector can be expected at a relatively
5、 lower level with significant economic and social benefits. Suggestions include improving the regulatory system and related mechanisms to drive the continuous optimization of power generation structure;making full use of market-based measures to control CO2 emissions in the power sector effectively;
6、and providing necessary support to speed up research, development and application of relevant technologies. Keyword power sector; CO2 emission reduction; energy policy solution model; scenario analysis; policy evaluation; policy suggestion; China; 1 , 1 2015 4142k W h, 7000k Wh , 2 , , 2010 27.2% 20
7、15 34.8%3,4 , , , CO2 773g CO2/k Wh, (492g CO2/k Wh) (385g CO2/k Wh) (557g CO2/k W h) , , 2005 21.0 t CO2 2015 35.5 t CO2, 69%, 2016 , 5, 2020 CO2 550g CO2/ (k Wh) 6, , , 7, , 8, 9-11, , Vensim (Energy Policy Solution, EPS) , 2050 , , 2 2.1 Vensim EPS Vensim , , , , , 12-14 , 15,16 , ( 1) , , , ; ,
8、; , , , EPS 5 , 5 , , 35 , , , EPS 2015 , 2050 , 1 17,18 2 19 20 EPS , , , , ; , , , , ; , , , , , , , (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage, CCUS) 1 Figure 1 Framework of energy policy solution 2.2 , ( 1) , , , , , , , , , 2010 1.8% 2016 6.1%, 0.72 17 , 1 , 2050 30.2% 39.0%, 30.2% 31.0% ( 30.2%
9、) 39.0% , , , 3 3.1 , 2050 38.1 k W 43.1 k W 44.4 k W ( 2) , , 23 , 2050 , 11.8 k W 7.8 k W 6.5 k W, 30.9% 18.0% 15.0%, 61.9% 75.6% 81.6% ( 3) , 2015 28.0% , , , 2030 42.9% 45.9%, 7.5 10.5 , 2050 59.4% 64.5%, 13.7 18.8 1 Table 1 Policy settings in three scenarios of power sector in China 2 2015 2050
10、 Figure 2 Power capacity trend in three scenarios in China from 2015 to 2050 3 2015 2050 Figure 3 Power generation trend in three scenarios in China from 2015 to 2050 ( 4) , 2040 , 2040 58.4 t CO2, 2050 51.1 t CO2; , , 2030 46.5 t CO2, 2050 27.9 t CO2; , 2030 43.8 t CO2, 2050 17.1 t CO2 , ( PM2.5 NO
11、x SOx) , , 2050 2015 ( 5) , , , , 2030 , 47.0 t CO2 , 2015 12.0 t CO2 3.2 , ( 6a) , 2050 6.6 t CO2 7.8 t CO2 CCUS 2030 , 2050 5.5 t CO2 , , 2050 1.0 t CO2 , 2050 CCUS 85.5% 4 2015 2050 CO2 Figure 4 Power sector CO2emission in three scenarios in China from 2015 to 2050 , CCUS , 2050 , 7.0 t CO2 9.7 t
12、 CO2 11.0 t CO2 4.1 t CO2 ( 6b) , , 2050 CCUS 81.3% 5 2015 2050 Figure 5 Power sector air pollutant emissions in three scenarios in China from 2015 to 2050 6 2016 2050 Figure 6 Contributions to carbon reductions by policy in low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios of power sector in China from
13、2016 to 2050 2 , , , , , , , CCUS , , 77 /t CO2 1.73 /t CO2 3691 /t CO2 245 /t CO2 (2012 , ) , , , , 2 Table 2 Contributions to 2050 carbon reduction and cost by policy under three scenarios in China , 2050 2.1 2.8 , 2050 GDP 0.8% 1.1% 4 4.1 , : (1) 2050 38.1 k W 43.1 k W 44.4 k W, 61.9% 75.6% 81.6% (2) 2040 2030 2030 , 58.4 t CO2 46.5 t CO2 43.8 t CO2 (3) , CCUS , (4) , , CCUS , 4.2 , , , , , , : (1) , , , , , , , , , , , , (2) , , , , , , , , (3) , , CCUS CCUS , CCUS , CCUS , CCUS
