1、RESEARCH The Wilderness Use Simulation Model Applied to Colorado River Boating in Grand Canyon National Park, USA研究荒野使用模拟模型及其应用科罗拉多河在大峡谷国家划船美国公园A. HEATON UNDERHILL Cooperative National Park Resources Studies Unit 125 Biological Sciences East University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721, USAA. BUSA XA
2、BA Department of Mathematics University of Swaziland PC Kwaluseni, Swaziland RONALD E. BORKAN School of Renewable Natural Resources University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA答：希顿昂德希尔合作国家公园资源研究组125 生物科学东亚利桑那大学85721 ，美国亚利桑那州图森A. BUSA XABA数学系斯威士兰大学PC Kwaluseni ，斯威士兰罗纳德大肠杆菌 BORKAN可再生自然资源学院亚利桑那大学85
3、721 ，美国亚利桑那州图森ABSTRACT / A modification of the Shechter-Lucas Wilder- ness Use Simulation Model (WUSM) for peak season boating on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park, USA, is evaluated as a tool for making management deci- sions. A new microcomputer program to select trip itinerari
4、es for inclusion in the WUSM that was developed as part of this study is presented. This program simplifies user input and expands the WUSMs usefulness as a tool for management decisions by randomizing itinerary schedules based on prob- abilities developed from actual use of sites by canyon vis- ito
5、rs. Model usefulness is demonstrated by simulating various management changes and comparing use levels of attraction sites and campgrounds as well as numbers of encounters between parties. The WUSM is being used as part of an on- going study, to reflect the impact of fluctuating flow regimes on rive
6、r trips.through the turbines at Glen Canyon Dam 抽象/一个修改的 Shechter 卢卡斯怀尔德内斯使用模拟模型（ WUSM ）为旺季划船通过科罗拉多河大峡谷国家公园，美国，被评为决策管理决策的工具sions 。一种新的微机程序选择旅行路线列入开发这部分 WUSM研究提出。该方案简化了用户的输入和作为一个管理工具，扩大 WUSM 的实用性基于概率，随机行程时间表的决定从实际使用网站开发能力峡谷 VIS-itors 。通过模拟各种模型的有效性证明管理变革和吸引力比较使用量地点和营地以及遭遇数字各方之间。在 WUSM 正在使用的一个组成部分正在进行的
7、研究，以反映脉动流制度的影响通过涡轮机在格伦峡谷大坝对河流人次。Following the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1964, the volume of boating and rafting on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park, USA, in- creased rapidly. While rafting everywhere on suitable rivers increased during this period, the dam stabilized and imp
8、roved tremendously rafting conditions through the park. In the late 1970s, the Park Serviceestablished a ceiling of approximately 15,000 persons a year in order to prevent the river from being over-used. 格伦峡谷大坝截流， 1964 年科罗拉多河上划船和漂流的体积通过美国大峡谷国家公园，河，折痕迅速。虽然到处漂流在适当的在此期间增加的河流，大坝稳定并改善条件，极大地漂流穿过公园。在 20 世纪
9、 70 年代末，公园管理处建立了约 15000 人的最高限额去年，为了防止过分河使用。In 1972, the Park Service inaugurated a researchprogram on the ecological and sociological aspects ofhuman use of the river including motor rafting (Na-tional Park Service 1974-1977). Included in the research program were four socio-logical studies of river
10、 rafters by Shelby and Nielsen(1976a-d). They identified many of the differencesbetween motor and oar trips and between private andcommercial parties, and they also measured user reac-tions, expectations, and satisfactions. Many factors andconsiderations that management should evaluate inthe process
11、 of establishing a river use plan were sug-gested, including the use of a computer simulationmodel for testing alternative management plans. 1972 年，公园管理处启动了一个研究生态和社会学方面的计划人类利用河流包括电机漂流（钠佐丹奴公园管理处 1974-1977 年） 。列入研究计划，四组的社会经济谢尔比和尼尔森河椽逻辑研究（ 1976a -D） 。他们发现许多分歧之间的电机和桨人次，与私人和商业机构，他们还测量用户反应tions ，期望和满意度。许多
12、因素考虑管理应评估建立一条河流利用计划的过程中建议gested ，包括利用计算机模拟模型测试替代管理计划。In 1981, the Cooperative National Park ResourcesStudy Unit at the University of Arizona was asked toadapt the Wilderness Use Simulation Model (WUSM) developed by Shechter and Lucas (1978) to whitewater boating through Grand Canyon National Park. T
13、he objectives of the project, which the authors describe in this article, were (a) to modify the WUSM so that it would reflect rafting conditions on the Colorado River through the park as accurately as possible, and (b) to illustrate how the park staff might use the model to test various management
14、alternatives.在 1981 年，合作的国家公园资源在亚利桑那大学的研究组被要求适应荒野使用模拟模型（ WUSM 的的）由 Shechter 和卢卡斯（1978 ）发展到白水通过大峡谷国家公园划船。 “该项目的目标，作者描述这篇文章中， （a）至修改的 WUSM ，以便它将反映在科罗拉多河漂流条件通过公园尽可能准确， （二）说明了公园的工作人员如何使用模型测试各种管理的替代品。Methods This study was made possible by the willing cooper- ation of the Forest Service. The WUSM program
15、 is on the Forest Service Univac mainframe computer at Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. We accessed that machine through the Harris 1650 at Coronado National Forest Headquarters in Tucson, Arizona. This cooperation is gratefully acknowledged. Those wishing a detailed, laymans description of how the WUSM
16、 is constructed and works are referred to Shechter and Lucas (1978). We adapted the WUSM to boat travel on the Colo- rado River through Grand Canyon National Park. 方法这项研究可能愿意库珀林务局的 ATION 。该 WUSM 程序是林务局 UNIVAC 电脑主机堡柯林斯，美国科罗拉多州。我们访问的那台机器通过哈里斯 1650 科罗纳多国家森林公园总部设在亚利桑那州图森市。这种合作是深表感谢。那些希望一个详细的，外行的描述的 WUSM
17、 如何建造及工程被称为到 Shechter 和卢卡斯（1978 ） 。我们适应 WUSM 在科罗拉多州乘船旅行雷达河穿过大峡谷国家公园。This adaption is described in some detail by Underhill and Xaba (1983). Simulation models, in general, attempt to accurately reflect a system. For boating in Grand Canyon, this modification simulates many of the actual conditions th
18、at occur on river trips. In the model, boats proceeddownstream according to planned itineraries, which provide for river travel, lunch stops, visits to attraction sites, and campsites. Travel times are associated with each of these events, as they are on the river. There- fore, the model simulates a
19、 time schedule of boats in the canyon. After a simulation period (one week), the program produces numerous outputs, primarily based on two items-the use of attraction sites and camp- sites, and the number and location of encounters with other parties. 这适应昂德希尔在一些细节描述和 Xaba （1983）仿真模型，在一般情况下，试图准确反映了系统
20、。在大峡谷，这划船许多实际情况修改模拟发生河人次。在该模型中，船进行下游按计划行程，河旅游，午餐站，提供参观吸引力网站，和露营地。旅行时间与这些事件，因为它们是河上。有 - 因此，该模型模拟的船的时间表大峡谷。经过模拟期间（一周） ，程序产生大量输出，主要是基于两个项目 - 吸引网站的使用和营地网站，并与接触的数量和位置其他各方。In order to determine typical trip itineraries for various types and lengths of trips, the authors used a number of sources, including
21、 (a) National Park Service records of launches at Lees Ferry for 1979, 1980, and 1981; (b) trip logs kept by commercial and private rafters; (c) River Patrol reports; and (d) river records kept by the authors. A review of launch data showed that during the peak summer use season (15 June-15 Septembe
22、r), the average launch rate was 29 parties (790 people) per week. Of these parties, about 18 were commercial motor trips, six were commercial oar trips, and five were private oars. The WUSM requires that trip itineraries be constructed using travel segments,stops, and campsites. Using rapids, attrac
23、tion sites, and campgrounds as dividing points, we established 199 river travel segments; 141 most used campsites and 110 attraction sites and other possible stops were lo- cated at points between or adjacent to these segments.为了确定典型的旅行路线不同的类型和长度的行程中，作者使用了数字的来源，包括： （一）国家公园管理处在李登辉的渡轮 1979 年，1980 年和发射
24、记录1981 年（二）行程日志保持商业和私人椽子; （三）河巡逻报告; 及（ d）河流记录由作者保留。发射数据的审查表明：在夏季使用高峰季节（ 6 月 15 日 159 月份），发射率平均为 29 个缔约国（ 790 人）每周。这些政党，约 18 人商业马达人次，六是商用桨人次，和五个私人桨。在 WUSM 要求旅行路线，构建旅游段，站，和露营地。使用激流，吸引网站，露营地作为划分点，我们建立了 199河旅游段; 141 最常用的露营地和110 吸引力的网站和其他可能停止卤味cated 在这些细分市场之间或相邻的点。Since there are almost limitless opportu
25、nities for itinerary variations with 110 possible stops and 141 campsites, and close to 400 parties using the river during the high use period, we decided to develop a microcomputer program to create river trips. Other users of the WUSM have relied for their itineraries upon using actual trips that
26、they accompanied. The primary advantage of this microcomputer program is that trips are selected on the basis of the frequency of use of attraction sites and campsites, rather than on a small sample of actual river trips. 由于几乎是无限的机会行程变化可能与 110 站和 141露营地，近 400 名各方河在高的使用期限，我们决定开发一个微机程序创建河人次。其他WUSM 用户依
27、靠自己的行程一旦使用，他们陪同的实际行程。 “这微机程序的主要优点是旅行的频率的基础上选择使用吸引力的网站和露营地，而不是一个小样品实际河人次。Two programs were developed, one to create motor trips, the other to create oar trips, since these programs have different characteristics, travel times, and the like. For these programs, when the length of a trip in days (N) is
28、 entered, the computer divides the river into N segments and picks a campsite within _+ 5 miles of these division points. The random selection ofcampsites is controlled by use frequency histograms, which are based upon actual use. For example, if 5% of all river trips camp at Lower Bass, then one ou
29、t of 20 trips in the model will camp there. Once campsites are chosen, the program determines travel time be- tween campsites, and then fills out a 7- to 9-h day by adding stops and attraction sites, again based upon actual frequencies of use of attraction sites. It does this for each of the N days
30、entered initially for the trip and terminates as soon as the exit point is reached. A flow- chart of this program is shown in Figure 1. (A copy of this program can be obtained by contacting the au- thors.) 两个方案，一个创建电机人次，其他建立桨人次，因为这些方案有不同的特点，旅行时间，和喜欢。这些方案时，长度在天之旅（N）的输入，计算机划分列印段和推介_ + 5 个营地内的河水这些分割点英里
31、。随机选择露营地控制使用频率直方图，这是根据实际使用。例如，如果 5所有的河流人次营地下低音，然后一出20 人次在该模型将有营。一旦营地该方案的选择，决定出行时间之间的营地，然后填写一份 7 - 9 小时一天加入站和吸引力的网站，再根据实际吸引网站的使用频率。它这样做N 天的行程进入最初终止尽快达到出口点。一种流量这个方案图如图 1 所示。 （副本这个程序可以通过接触非盟雷神）。This microcomputer program not only makes it possible to develop trip itineraries that are statistically more
32、 representative of the total population of river trips, but also eliminates the tedious task of manually writing and entering error free the 2500-3000 char- acters and symbols required to record each itinerary. In order to use the WUSM, considerably more user inputs must be supplied. These include t
33、he length of the simulation period, the number of parties starting trips during the simulation period, the ratio betweenoars and motors (foot and horseback travelers in the original WUSM), number of launches for each day of the week, frequencies for launches during hours of the day, percentages for
34、party size by travel mode (oar or motor), camp departure times by travel mode, and finally, river trip itineraries, classified by mode of travel, length, and A.M. or P.M, launch. 这种微机程序不仅使可能制定行程路线，在统计比较有代表性的河流的总人口旅行，但也省去了繁琐的手动任务自由书写和输入错误 2500-3000 字符acters 和记录每个行程所需的符号。在为了使用 WUSM 的，相当多的用户必须提供输入。这些措施
35、包括长度模拟期间，各方开始在仿真期间的车次，之间的比例桨和电机（脚在马背上旅客原 WUSM ） ，每一天的发射数量本周，频率发射期间小时一天出行方式，党的大小的百分比（OAR或电机）营地出发时间，出行方式，终于，河流之旅的行程，分类模式旅游，长度，和上午或 P.M ，启动。The WUSM outputs numerous tables and matrices about the simulation, including input tables that check the launch patterns, hours of campsite arrivals and de- partu
36、res, as well as numerous matrices. The most im- portant outputs are: (a) the number of parties that use each of the 450 separate locations that are enumerated in the model per week or per three weeks (the simula- tion period), (b) the number of encounters that occur between parties, and (c) the loca
37、tions where these en- counters occur. Some of the printout tables are cumu- lative; others, such as the average number of daily en- counters, are for each week. Finally, there are across- run summary tables, which combine the data for the entire simulations. WUSM 输出许多表和矩阵关于模拟，包括输入表的检查发射模式，露营地来港定居人士小
38、时和partures ，以及无数的矩阵。最portant 输出是： （一）各方使用每个列举的 450 个不同地点在每星期或每三个星期的模型（仿真TION 期） ， （二）的遭遇，发生当事人之间， （c）在地方，这些 EN-柜台发生。一些打印输出表是 cumulative ;他人，如平均每天 EN-计数器，每星期。最后，还有一些跨运行结合的数据的汇总表，整个模拟。Wilderness management has generally operated on the premise that the quality of the wilderness experi- ence is inverse
39、ly proportional to the number of en- counters with other parties. Management must decide the number of encounters that provides the appro- priate experience for a particular area. Whether or not Grand Canyon rafters have the same encounter sensitivities as backcountry wilderness hikers is not clear.
40、 However, river managers at Grand Canyon have the responsibility to determine the level of use on the river, and hence influence the users experiences. We established the simulation period as five weeks: two weeks to fill the river, and three weeks during which to record encounter and use data, one
41、week at a time.一般经营旷野管理旷野质量的前提下，实验ENCE 是成反比数量 EN -与其他各方的柜台。管理人员必须决定提供了适当的遭遇标称电流某一领域的经验。是否没有大峡谷的椽子有相同的遭遇穷乡僻壤荒野远足的敏感性不清除。然而，在大峡谷河流经理责任确定的使用水平河流，并因此影响用户的体验。我们成立五周的模拟期间：两个星期来填补河，三个星期，期间其中记录的遭遇和使用数据，在一个星期时间。Results No simulation model of a dynamic process can ex- actly duplicate the real thing. However,
42、when the model output was within the range of encounters re- corded in the field data available to us, we believed that the model was simulating conditions on the river for the peak summer season. Tables 1 and 2 compare our base run of the simulation model to Shetbys 1975 records, and Park Service P
43、atrol Trips in 1980, 1981, and t982. 结果没有一个动态过程的仿真模型，可以前actly 复制真实的东西。然而，当模型输出遭遇的范围内重新我们相信，在该领域的数据提供给我们的有线，该模型模拟河上的条件夏季用电高峰季节。表 1 和表 2 比较我们的基地运行仿真模型， Shetby 的 1975 年记录，公园巡逻旅游服务在 1980 年，1981 年，t982 。Campsites are not accurately represented in our ad- aptation of the WUSM. Except along a few stretches
44、, there are enough campgrounds so that no two parties need to share a site. If the site a party planned on using is occupied, they often proceed downstreamTable 1. Parties encountered at selected attractionsites and average number of encounters per day. until they find an unoccupied site. Consequent
45、ly, the observed “nights camped alone“ in Table 2 tend to be greater than the model base run. This is partly because the model has 141 campsites, whereas in the canyon there are well over 400. However, the model has the most popular campsites. Since our microcomputer trip selection program selected
46、campsites on the basis of reported level of use, the decrease in nights camped alone probably more accurately reflects the competi- tion for campgrounds than do the actual figures ob- served on the river. 营地没有准确地反映在我们的广告对在 WUSM aptation 。除沿绵延几，所以没有双方足够的营地需要共享网站。如果该站点的一方计划使用被占用，他们经常进行下游表 1 。缔约方在选择景点时
47、遇到网站平均每天接触数。直到他们找到一个空置网站。因此，观察表 2 中“安营扎寨独自夜” ，往往是大于模型的基础上运行。这部分是因为该机型拥有 141 露营地，而在峡谷有超过 400 个。然而，该模型具有最流行的露营地。由于我们的微机行程选择方案的基础上选定的营地报告利用水平，减少在晚扎营仅可能更准确地反映竞争力TION 营地，实际数字比 OB-送达的河流。The use of 17 campsites being monitored by NPS to evaluate human impacts is shown in Table 3. Here the use as reported i
48、n the base model is compared to ac- tual use in 1982 over a comparable period as reported in user logs. Spearmans Rho test (ranking compara- bility test) gives and rs value of 0.87, showing a very high relationship between the two rankings. We believed that the WUSM, as modified, accu- rately reflec
49、ted peak summer use of popular camp- sites and attractions and levels of encounters between parties traveling on the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park. This was our first objec- tive. The second objective was to illustrate how the model might be used by Park Service management to predict the impact of various operational changes on number of encounters between parties and total use of various locations. 使用 17 个营地被监测到 NPS评估人类活动的影响，如表 3 所示。在这里，使用作为示范基地的报道相比 AC -tual 在 1982 年使用过同期报告在用户日志。斯皮尔曼的 RHO 测试（排名 compara -bility 测试）为 RS 值的 0.87 ，呈现出非常高两个排名之间的关系。我们相信，修改后的 WUSM
