1、 August 16, 2010 ASEAN: Gaming Strong SG casino results prompt EPS/TP upgrades; GENT to C-Buy RWS drive solid 2Q results: S$10mn gaming win, high margins Key takeaways on Genting Singapores 2Q results beat: 1) Impressive Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) topline growth, as we estimate S$10mn daily gross g
2、aming revenues vs. 1Qs S$8mn, GSe 2Q: S$7mn; 2) We estimate RWS 2Q daily win/device was among the highest, if not highest seen among casino properties under GS global coverage; 3) Lions market share against Marina Bay Sands (MBS) S$5mn daily wins; 4) RWS 2Q margin of 58% was higher than GSe of 50%,
3、though partly inflated by high VIP win rate of 3%. 2Q results were strong but likely wont continue; 2H likely lower RWS made S$503mn in EBITDA in 2Q, which beat ours and market expectations. However, there were a few factors which may not hold: 1) High volatile VIP win rate just as MBS did poorly in
4、 2Q with only 2.18% (which we think may have partially reflected SGs low VIP volumes), RWS 2Q above-industry win rate may not hold; 2) 26 days of RWS monopoly pre-MBS opening, post MBS we think gaming revenues were lower. We estimate S$742mn in RWS EBITDA in 2H. Still, this is above our previous for
5、ecast; we raise GENS/GENTs 2010E-12E earnings. Likely lower RWS share, but market may expand to US$5bn in 11 At face value, RWS daily S$10mn seems to have gotten 67% market share vs. MBS S$5mn, but this was likely inflated by unsustainably high VIP win rate also, note RWSs 2Q mass market did not rea
6、lly grow still at S$4mn/day vs. 1Q). In 2Q, SG gaming win was annualizing at US$4bn run-rate, almost double 1Qs US$2.1-2.2bn when RWS was sole operator, and we think this can further grow in 2011E to US$5bn, even as junket VIP operators come onboard, offset by less novelty demand. US$5bn would be 20
7、% of our 2011E Macau market forecast. Raising EPS ests. and TPs; adding GENT to Conv list (from Buy) 1) Post our earnings upgrade, we raise GENS 12-m SOTP TP to S$1.46 (from S$1.15), still Neutral; its expensive valuation/low returns (RWS ROIC) vs. Macau casino stocks may cap upside. 2) We prefer GE
8、NT (add to CL Buy), given its inexpensive valuation; investors may have overlooked its much stronger global gaming franchise. New 12-m SOTP TP is MYR10.30 (from MYR9.20). Genting Group Summary Note: Data above as of market close on Aug 13, 2010. EV above includes minority interest. 12-month target p
9、rices Risks: GENS/GENM: Upside - Stronger than expected casino performance, downside: competition, GENT: downside: poor casino performance, weak non-gaming earnings. Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Related Research ASEAN: Gaming: “Genting group: Positive Singapore casino moment
10、um; GENT to Buy, “ July 26, 2010. David Ng, CFA +65-6889-2483 Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could aff
11、ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are
12、not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Michelle Lee +65-6889-2462 Goldman Sachs (Singapore) PteThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment ResearchGenting BerhadGenting MalaysiaGenting SingaporeReuters Ticker GENT.KL GENM.KL GENS.SIRating Buy* Neutral NeutralCurren
13、cy MYR MYR S$Current Price 8.18 2.79 1.46Target Price 10.30 3.00 1.46Potential upside/downside (%) 26% 8% 0%Valuation current price2011E P/E (X) 13.4 14.5 17.52012E P/E (X) 12.1 13.9 16.72011E EV/EBITDA (X) 5.1 5.8 10.32012E EV/EBITDA (X) 4.3 5.1 8.42011E Div Yield (X) 2.0 2.7 0.02012E Div Yield (X)
14、 2.2 2.9 0.0* On conviction listAugust 16, 2010 ASEAN: Gaming Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Exhibit 1: We estimate Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) had S$10m/day gaming revenues in 2Q, partly inflated by above industry average VIP win rate Detailed Resorts World Sentosa 2Q revenue analysis S
15、ource: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 2: We estimate Singapores current run-rate has risen to about US$4bn vs. 1Qs US$2.1-2.2bn; RWS seems to have secured the lions share; even adjusting for RWS wins being inflated by above-industry average VIP win rate, and its 26 days of m
16、onopoly pre-Marina Bay Sands opening, its market share was still above 60% Singapore current gaming revenue run-rate (annualized) vs. market share Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 3: RWS guided for 60/40 VIP/mass gaming revenue split, we think slot was 15% of gaming to
17、pline GS estimate of RWS 2Q gaming revenue composition, daily win/device Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. S$mn Comments861 Less:Universal Studio Singapore 54 7,000 visitors/day x S$84 average spend/visitor x 91 daysHotel 18 1,100 average rooms x 70% occupancy rate x S$263 aver
18、age room rate x 91 daysOthers, including retail, F 2010E change for Genting Singapore was substantial as it reflected faster than expected profitability ramp-up in RWS. 2) 2010E is based on reported net income, which includes exceptional. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Bloomberg. Exhibit
19、10: Despite our Genting Singapore EBITDA upgrade, which is now above consensus, we retain Neutral, as we still find it difficult to justify higher multiples for RWS vs. higher property returns under Wynn Macau or Sands China (RWS is among the most expensive casino property built globally) and also g
20、iven that Singapore casino operators have additional corporate taxes of 17% vs. Macau, where there is no corporate tax Operating performance of Asian casinos opened over the last few years Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Revised Previous % chg Consensus Vs GSe Revised Previou
21、s % chg Consensus Vs GSe2010E 3,196 2,779 15% 2,984 7% 15,586 14,582 7% 13,255 18%2011E 3,790 3,577 6% 3,818 -1% 17,189 16,675 3% 15,174 13%2012E 4,503 3,982 13% 4,256 6% 19,389 18,108 7% 16,735 16%2010E 1,425 1,092 30% 1,106 29% 6,824 6,024 13% 4,879 40%2011E 1,719 1,393 23% 1,411 22% 7,550 6,761 1
22、2% 5,801 30%2012E 1,951 1,540 27% 1,691 15% 8,314 7,304 14% 6,441 29%2010E 350 145 142% 520 -33% 1,760 1,515 16% 1,563 13%2011E 1,014 855 18% 814 25% 2,263 1,983 14% 1,969 15%2012E 1,061 868 22% 1,065 0% 2,515 2,152 17% 2,244 12%Net ProfitGenting Singapore (S$ mn) Genting Berhad (MYR mn)EBITDARevenu
23、eCasino Sands Macao The Venetian Macao Plaza Wynn Macau Star World Grand Lisboa Crown Macau City of DreamsResorts World at SentosaOpening date May 04 Aug 07 Aug 08 Sep 06 Oct 06 Feb 07 May 07 Jun 09 Feb 10Owner SANDS SANDS SANDS Wynn ResortsGalaxy EntertainmentSJM Holdings Melco Crown Melco Crown Ge
24、nting SingaporeConstruction cost US$ mn 473 2,316 997 1,800 378 981 382 2,345 4,407Land cost US$ mn 27 168 58 NA NA NA 142 344 441FF stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See Rati
25、ngs, Coverage groups and views and related definitions below. August 16, 2010 ASEAN: Gaming Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10 Price target and rating history chart(s) Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosur
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34、red companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. Ge nting Singap
35、ore Plc (GENS.SI)0.790.730.680.620.420.350.430.540.660.680.770.000.501.001.502.001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target historyStock Price Currency : Singapore DollarSource: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing price
36、s as of 6/30/2010.The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets.RatingPrice targetPrice target at remo
37、valCovered by David Ng, CFANot covered by current analystFTSE Straits Times In de xIndexPriceStock Price Jul 30NASS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J2007 2008 2009 2010Genting (GENT.KL)7.56.96.856.64.84.13.746.26.56.87.378.62.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.008009001
38、,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target historyStock Price Currency : Malaysian RinggitSource: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2010.The price targets show n should be considered in the context of
39、 all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets.RatingPrice targetPrice target at removalCovered by David Ng, CFANot covered by current analystKuala Lumpur CompositeIn
40、dexPriceStock PriceANS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J2007 2008 2009 2010Ge nting M alays ia Berhad (GENM .KL)2.82.62.82.52.583.84.154.84.831.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target histo
41、ryStock Price Currency : Malaysian RinggitSource: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 6/30/2010.The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included pr
42、ice targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets.RatingPrice targetPrice target at removalCovered by David Ng, CFANot covered by current analystKuala Lumpur CompositeIndexPriceStock Price Nov 27 Jul 30B NASS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
43、 A S O N D J F M A M J2007 2008 2009 2010August 16, 2010 ASEAN: Gaming Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11 European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at http:/ which states the Europe
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47、 an Investment List is determined by a stocks return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideli
48、ne of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time h
