1、March 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 March 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Revenue growth propelled by twin engines of rates and volumes Attractive stance affirmed by strong revenue recovery The Asian containership sector is up 13% yt
2、d and has outperformed MSCI Asia by 14ppt. We see 40% further potential upside on average for the stocks we rate Buy, as they are trading at an unjustified discount to their peer group on EV/fleet value (FV). Admittedly, the valuation gap has been narrowing, particularly for the shares of OOIL and H
3、anjin which are up 56% and 33% ytd, respectively. Key catalysts for this performance to be sustained include further rate increases on Asia/Europe (A/E) from March and Transpacific (TP) rate renewals from May, as well as upgrades to consensus forecasts which still pessimistically assume losses for 2
4、010. Asia/Europe spot rates set new record In our view, the market is under-estimating the speed of the revenue recovery and the corresponding impact of operating leverage. Improving demand coupled with capacity discipline has sustained high load factors of 95%-100% on the long-haul trades, allowing
5、 carriers to lift rates faster than our above-consensus forecasts. Record spot rates on A/E are lifting overall spot rates close to peak levels of Oct 2004, which we think could result in an earlier-than-expected turnaround in profitability. Strong port throughput volumes in January Chinas container
6、 ports posted 26% yoy growth in throughput for January, while leading ports of Hong Kong and Singapore have experienced 17% and 18% yoy growth, respectively. We expect demand to positively surprise, as consumers in the US and Europe continue trading down and rely on lower-cost imports from Asia. Top
7、 pick: Wan Hai: 57% upside pot. to our target price of NT$25.50 The stock is trading at just 0.81X EV/FV against our target multiple of 1.13X, underpinned by returns on fleet of 11.7% for 2010E-11E. Corporate action potential in OOIL Not only does OOIL stock look attractively valued to us at 0.87X E
8、V/FV, we see corporate action potential following the successful disposal of its China property portfolio, which could result in a partial return of capital. Downside risks to our bullish view Industry-wide capacity and pricing discipline are key industry risks. UPSIDE/(DOWNSIDE) POTENTIAL TO TARGET
9、 PRICES 12-Month Potential Trading Current Target upside/Company Rating Currency Price Price (downside)Wan Hai Lines Buy NT$ 16.25 25.50 57%Orient Overseas International Buy HK$ 56.75 83.00 46%Yang Ming Marine Transportation Neutral NT$ 11.30 16.20 43%Hanjin Shipping Buy W 27,600 37,000 34%Neptune O
10、rient Lines Buy S$ 1.78 2.20 24%Evergreen Marine Neutral NT$ 19.20 23.70 23%China Shipping Container (H) Neutral HK$ 3.10 3.10 0%China Shipping Container (A) Sell Rmb 4.81 3.90 -19%Hyundai Merchant Marine Sell W 29,200 19,000 -35%All prices mentioned above are as of the market close of February 26,
11、2010. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Bloomberg. GS EARNINGS ESTIMATES VS CONSENSUS ReportingCompany Currency 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011ECSCL (H) RMB 0.01 0.18 (0.15) 0.02 NM 712%Evergreen TWD 0.44 2.52 (0.51) 1.03 NM 144%Hanjin KRW 670 3,624 (1,552) 1,771 NM 105%HMM KRW (134) 1,73
12、8 (650) 525 -79% 231%NOL USD 0.05 0.20 (0.08) 0.08 NM 144%OOIL USD 0.15 0.87 0.86 0.48 -82% 81%Wan Hai TWD 1.35 2.20 0.48 1.03 179% 113%Yang Ming TWD 0.17 0.99 (1.25) 0.72 NM 37%Average NM 196%GS EPS Consensus EPS GS vs ConsensusNote: GS provides pre-exceptional EPS estimates. Source: Goldman Sachs
13、Research estimates, Bloomberg. Tom Kim +852-2978-0856 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ronald Leung +852-2978-1255 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
14、firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or
15、 go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment ResearchMarch 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Exhibit 1: Asian container shipp
16、ing comparables CompanyReutersTicker RatingTrading CurrencyCurrent Price12-Month Target Price Potential upside/ (downside)Market cap (US$ mn)Turnover(US$ mn)China Shipping Container (H) 2866.HK Neutral HK$ 3.10 3.10 0% 4,665 31.3China Shipping Container (A) 601866.SS Sell Rmb 4.81 3.90 -19% 8,233 34
17、.3Evergreen Marine 2603.TW Neutral NT$ 19.20 23.70 23% 1,762 6.8Hanjin Shipping 117930.KS Buy W 27,600 37,000 34% 1,763 27.0Hyundai Merchant Marine 011200.KS Sell W 29,200 19,000 -35% 3,350 6.2Neptune Orient Lines NEPS.SI Buy S$ 1.78 2.20 24% 2,061 12.0Orient Overseas International 0316.HK Buy HK$ 5
18、6.75 83.00 46% 4,575 5.4Wan Hai Lines 2615.TW Buy NT$ 16.25 25.50 57% 1,102 2.1Yang Ming Marine Transportation 2609.TW Neutral NT$ 11.30 16.20 43% 903 7.7ROF WACCTarget fleet multipleCurrent fleet multiple Net D/EAdjusted Net D/E FCF YieldCompany 2010E-11E 2009E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011ECh
19、ina Shipping Container (H) 12.9% 10.9% 1.29x 1.28x 30% 98% -5.9% 1.7%China Shipping Container (A) 12.9% 9.4% 1.62x 1.88x 30% 98% -3.4% 1.0%Evergreen Marine 8.0% 10.1% 0.67x 0.60x 6% 132% 5.5% 16.5%Hanjin Shipping 13.3% 11.5% 1.23x 1.12x 266% 328% -35.7% -8.6%Hyundai Merchant Marine 13.3% 12.0% 1.15x
20、 1.36x 259% 325% 5.1% 12.7%Neptune Orient Lines 11.4% 10.0% 1.22x 1.04x 3% 87% 1.6% 15.8%Orient Overseas International 11.6% 9.9% 1.30x 0.87x -18% -1% -0.6% 12.0%Wan Hai Lines 11.7% 10.8% 1.13x 0.81x -3% 53% 19.9% 13.2%Yang Ming Marine Transportation 10.5% 9.3% 1.21x 1.11x 164% 350% -6.8% 5.8%Simple
21、 average : 11.7% 10.4% 1.20x 1.12x 82% 163% -2.3% 7.8%Operating margins Net margin (pre-exceptional)Company 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011EChina Shipping Container (H) 1.4% -33.3% 1.5% 9.1% 1.7% -31.3% 0.5% 5.5%China Shipping Container (A) 1.4% -33.3% 1.5% 9.1% 1.7% -31.3% 0.5% 5.5%Eve
22、rgreen Marine 2.2% -9.0% 0.9% 5.9% 2.4% -7.6% 0.9% 4.9%Hanjin Shipping 3.6% -13.1% 3.5% 5.3% 2.9% -17.0% 0.5% 2.6%Hyundai Merchant Marine 6.8% -11.1% 3.7% 6.9% 6.3% -15.2% -0.2% 3.1%Neptune Orient Lines 1.7% -8.7% 1.7% 5.6% 1.7% -9.0% 1.5% 5.5%Orient Overseas International 5.3% -6.9% 2.6% 8.6% 4.6%
23、-8.9% 1.5% 7.2%Wan Hai Lines 2.7% -0.4% 8.8% 11.1% 3.2% -3.5% 4.3% 5.9%Yang Ming Marine Transportation 1.0% -14.8% 2.0% 3.9% 0.9% -11.4% 0.3% 1.6%Simple average : 2.9% -14.5% 2.9% 7.3% 2.8% -15.0% 1.1% 4.6%P/E (pre-exceptional) Dividend yieldCompany 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011EChina
24、 Shipping Container (H) 43.4x NM NM 15.3x 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3%China Shipping Container (A) 106.8x NM NM 26.9x 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7%Evergreen Marine 21.9x NM 43.9x 7.6x 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.6%Hanjin Shipping 10.2x NM 41.2x 7.6x 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%Hyundai Merchant Marine 9.2x NM NM 16.8x 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%N
25、eptune Orient Lines 17.4x NM 26.5x 6.2x 2.9% 0.0% 0.9% 4.0%Orient Overseas International 9.2x NM 48.0x 8.4x 2.5% 0.0% 6.3% 3.0%Wan Hai Lines 21.2x NM 12.1x 7.4x 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1%Yang Ming Marine Transportation 32.6x NM 66.9x 11.4x 5.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4%Simple average : 32.7x NM 39.8x 12.0x 2.8% 0.2%
26、 0.8% 1.5%P/B ROE (pre-exceptional)Company 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011EChina Shipping Container (H) 0.8x 1.3x 1.2x 1.2x 1.9% -24.5% 0.6% 7.5%China Shipping Container (A) 2.0x 2.2x 2.2x 2.1x 1.9% -24.5% 0.6% 7.5%Evergreen Marine 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x 4.9% -15.6% 2.3% 11.7%Hanjin Shippi
27、ng NM 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 8.5% -63.9% 2.5% 12.3%Hyundai Merchant Marine 1.8x 2.3x 2.3x 2.0x 19.4% -52.9% -0.9% 10.9%Neptune Orient Lines 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x 0.9x 6.5% -20.8% 4.2% 15.2%Orient Overseas International 0.6x 1.2x 0.9x 0.9x 6.8% -11.3% 1.9% 10.2%Wan Hai Lines 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 7.6% -7.4% 10.4% 14.
28、8%Yang Ming Marine Transportation 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 2.8% -32.9% 1.2% 6.5%Simple average : 1.2x 1.3x 1.3x 1.2x 6.7% -28.2% 2.5% 10.7%EV/EBITDA Adj. EV/EBITDAR Absolute PerformanceCompany 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTDChina Shipping Container (H) 21.2x 8.0x 11.3x 7.2x -1% 7% -2%
29、 11%China Shipping Container (A) 34.1x 12.9x 16.1x 10.2x 2% -3% -3% 4%Evergreen Marine 10.8x 3.8x 8.6x 5.4x 9% 13% -5% 8%Hanjin Shipping 10.2x 7.8x 8.9x 7.3x 4% N/A N/A 33%Hyundai Merchant Marine 13.9x 9.4x 11.2x 8.6x -1% 13% 4% 9%Neptune Orient Lines 5.0x 1.9x 5.2x 3.1x 7% 15% 9% 8%Orient Overseas
30、International 10.4x 4.1x 7.4x 3.9x 12% 58% 41% 56%Wan Hai Lines 3.3x 2.3x 4.6x 3.3x 5% 0% -4% -5%Yang Ming Marine Transportation 9.9x 6.3x 10.6x 7.9x 0% -3% -6% -7%Simple average : 13.2x 6.3x 9.3x 6.3x 4.2% 12% 4% 13%(1) Our 12-month target prices are based on SOTP. For important disclosures, please
31、 go to http:/ (2) Key upside risks: Stronger-than-expected rebound in spot freight rates. Key downside risks: Double-dip recession in the US and/or EU, which could derail our thesis. (3) The current prices are based on the market close of February 26, 2010. (4) Turnover represented as average daily
32、turnover over the past 3 months. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. March 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 Robust recovery in rates and volumes We reiterate our bullish stance on the containership sector in view of
33、strong sequential growth in spot freight rates coupled with a healthy recovery in demand. Valuations still look undemanding against our expectation that the sector returns to mid-cycle multiples of 1.2X EV/fleet value against returns on fleet of 11.7% (2010E-11E) over the next 12 months. Exhibit 2:
34、While the equity market typically leads spot rates, it is not presently. We think that this is an opportunity to accumulate. Asian containership sector vs. the CCFI, 2003 current 040801201602002402003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201160708090100110120Container Index (LHS) CCFI (RHS)6-month 6-m
35、onth lag8-month 2-month lag8-month 4-month 5-month Market inefficiency Market efficiency improvesSource: Datastream, Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Exhibit 3: Containership volumes are rebounding robustly, with terminal handling growth at Chinas top eight ports up 26% yoy for January Asian containershi
36、p sector vs. Chinese exports (US$ mn), 2003 current 040801201602002402003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011025,00050,00075,000100,000125,000150,000Container Index (LHS) China exports (RHS)R2 = 0.57 (1995 - Current)Source: CEIC, Datastream. Spot rates are up 17% ytd and averaging 19% higher aga
37、inst last years depressed levels. Outside of China, Hong Kong and Singapore ports achieved 17% and 18% yoy growth in Jan, respectively. March 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 While it is still early days in the recovery, the speed at which spot ra
38、tes are rising surpasses our above-consensus earnings forecasts. Exhibit 4: A new record for spot rates have been set on the front-haul Asia to Europe routes, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchanges CCFI Asia to Europe (A/E) spot rates 50607080901001101201301401501999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2
39、005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011New record;Rates 6% above previous peak of Feb 29, 2008Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Exhibit 5: Spot rate trends bode well for the annual renegotiations. Transpacific (TP) spot rates 607080901001101201999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
40、011Successful implementation of Transpacific rate restoration plans in May could drive spot rates even higherSource: Shanghai Shipping Exchange. We expect carriers to keep driving A/E rates to (1) compensate for losses on TP, and (2) to use as leverage for annual TP contract renewals from April. We
41、see upside risk to our rate forecasts for both A/E and TP. March 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 Valuations still look attractive on mid-cycle multiples The containership sector is up 13% ytd, outperforming the MSCI Asia Index by 14 ppt. We see p
42、otential for the Buy rated stocks in the sector to rally a further 40% on average to our target prices over the next 12 months. Exhibit 6: Buy-rated Wan Hai stock is our top pick in the sector Potential upside/(downside) to our target prices -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%Hyundai Merc
43、hant MarineChina Shipping Container (A)China Shipping Container (H)Neptune Orient LinesEvergreen MarineHanjin ShippingYang Ming Marine TransportationOrient Overseas InternationalWan Hai LinesBuyBuyNeutralBuyNeutralBuyNeutralSellSellSource: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 7: We expect carri
44、ers to post a profit in 2010; 12 months ahead of consensus Asian containership sector net profit (US$ mn) vs. operating margins (%) (2001 - 2011E) (5,000)(4,000)(3,000)(2,000)(1,000)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E-15%-12%-9%-6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%Net
45、Income Operating margins (RHS)Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Wan Hai stock has the greatest upside to our target price of NT$25.50. In our view, the market is under-estimating the impact of operating leverage. Revenue is increasing faster than opex, implying upside risk to p
46、essimistic consensus forecasts which still assume a loss for 2010. March 2, 2010 Pan Asia: Transportation: Shipping Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6 The Buy-rated stocks in the containership sector are trading at 0.96X EV/fleet value based on secondhand market values, representing a 14% di
47、scount to the peer group average of 1.12X. Given financial leverage, there is 40% upside to the equity based on our target fleet value multiples. Exhibit 8: Wan Hai, OOIL, NOL and Hanjin fall below the line, implying that these stocks are relatively more attractively valued against our estimated ret
48、urns on fleet Asian containership sector EV/FV vs. ROF/WACC 0.0x0.2x0.4x0.6x0.8x1.0x1.2x1.4x1.6x1.8x2.0x0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x 1.4x 1.6xCSCL (A)EMCYang MingNOLOOILWanHaiHanjinHMMCSCL (H)ROF/WACCEV/FVSource: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 9: Our Buy-rated stocks a
49、lso look attractive on the Directors Cut methodology Asian containership sector EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC CSCL (H)CSCL (A)Wan HaiYangMingEvergreenMarineHanjinOOILNOL0.0x0.2x0.4x0.6x0.8x1.0x1.2x1.4x1.6x1.8x0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x 1.4xCROCI/WACCEV/GCISource: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Wan Han and OOIL look most attractively valued to us against our ROF estimates. Cross-checking the sector against cash returns on gross cash invested affirms our positive view
