1、Analysis and management of agricultural risk in China中国农业风险分析和管理Prof. Zhang QiaoAgricultural Information Institute (AII), Chinese Academy of agricultural sciences (CAAS)April 22.2008Contents（目录）1. Agricultural risk analysis农业风险分析2. Agricultural risk management 农业风险管理3. Effectiveness of crop insuranc
2、e农业保险效果1. Agricultural risk analysis农业风险分析1.1 Agricultural risk classification农业风险分类1.2 Agricultural risk feature农业风险特征1.3 Agricultural risk analysis农业风险分析1.1 Agricultural risk classification农业风险分类 Agricultural risk（概念）The degree that individuals actual revenue lower than expected revenue, for uncer
3、tainty and bounded rationality, during agricultural production and operation activities风险是指在一定时期和一定客观环境下，由于不确 定性的存在和人的有限理性，致使经济行为主体的实际收益低于预期收益的程度。 Agricultural risk classification（农业风险分类） natural risk Independent Risk Normal Risk（自然风险） （独立风险） （一般风险） market risk Systemic Risk Catastrophic Risk（市场风险）
4、（系统风险） （巨灾风险） Agricultural yield risk（ 农业产量风险） Price risk of agricultural commodity（农产品市场风险） Agricultural catastrophic risk （农业巨灾风险）1.2 Agricultural risk feature农业风险特征 Yield Risk（生产风险）Relative independent , stochastic相对独立性、随机性 . Price Risk（市场风险）Systemic, conjunctive系统性、 关联性 . Catastrophic Risk（巨灾风险）
5、Low probability , high Loss, strong impactive发生概率低、损失程度大、破坏性强An Example: Corn yield risk analysis and evaluation in China （ 中国玉米生产风险分析和评估） Background（背景） Analysis objective（分析目标） Analysis approach（分析方法） Analysis results（分析结果）1.3 Agricultural risk analysis农业风险分析Background（背景）Corn is one of the main c
6、rop in China ,and the Corn Belt in China is from Northeast to Southwest.玉米是中国主要粮食作物之一，我国玉米生产分布大致呈现一个从东北到西南的斜长带。Corn Belt Whole country PercentAcreage (104Ha) 2213.43 2464.0779 89.8%Output(104t) 10826.44 12114.725 89.4%Average of 2000-2005The acreage and production in Corn Belt and whole country主产区玉米
7、播种面积和产量占全国的比重Background（背景 ）We had selected eight province as the sample of Chinese Crop Belt，there are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan , Sichuan, Guizhou and Guangxi ) 我们选取了八个省份作为我国玉米主产区的样本代表，分别为：黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、山东、河南、四川、贵州和广西Average of 2000-2005The percent of Sample acreage &production to
8、 Corn Belt八省份玉米播种面积和产量占主产区的比重HLJ JL LN HN SD SC GX GZ SumAcreage 9.5% 11.8% 7.0% 10.6% 11.3% 5.4% 2.5% 3.2% 61.4%Output 8.5% 14.0% 8.2% 10.1% 13.8% 4.9% 1.6% 3.1% 64.1%Analysis objective (分析目标 ) Analysis and compare the yield risk (CV, Mean, Variation)between different regions 分析和比较不同地区的产量风险 （均值、标准差
9、和变异系数等） Establish the risk distribution models for different regions建立各个地区生产风险分布模型（单产分布模型） Estimate and rank yield risk in different regions估算和比较不同地区的生产风险大小Analysis approach (分析方法 ) Step 1: Collect yield data and got the relative stochastic variation (RSV)第一步：收集单产数据，计算相对随机波动（RSV）a: Detrend（去除趋势）And:
10、actural trendactural trendyyuuy y= + = trenduRSVy=Analysis approach (分析方法 )b: We use the linear movement average (LMA) to simulate the yield trend我们用线性移动平均法（LMA）计算单产趋势(Why? Cause this methods have the advanced of objectively & didnt lose sample data)为什么？因为该方法具有既不必主观假定产量历史演变的曲线类型，同时又不损失样本量的优点Analysis
11、 approach A demo 010020030040050050 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05yield-120-80-400408012050 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05after detrend-.5-.4-.3-.2-.1.0.1.2.350 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05RSVAnalysis approach (分析方法 ) Step 2: Select candidate parameterization of yield distribution for differ
12、ent regions第二步：采用参数方法，为不同地区选定合适的单产分布形式a: AD testAD检验b: Compare the skewness and kurtosis of samples with the moment ratio diagrams将各样本的偏度、峰度值与距比率图进行比较Analysis approach (分析方法 ) Step 3: Using MLE to estimate the parameters of yield distributions ,then got the PDF & CDF for different regions 第三步：利用极大似然
13、估计法估计各单产分布的参数，得到各样本的概率密度函数和累积概率密度函数Analysis results(分析结果 ) RESULT (1)The yield risk (CV, Mean, Variation) between different regions不同地区生产风险（均值、方差和变异系数）图示-0.0100-0.00500.00000.00500.01000.01500.02000.02500.0300Hei JI LIAO YU LV CHUAN QIAN GUIMean&Variation-15-10-50510CVMean Variation CVAnalysis resul
14、ts (分析结果 )RESULTS (2)The histogram, PDF and yield distribution of these sample is:各样本省的单产分布直方图、概率密度函数和单产分布模拟图：Analysis results(分析结果 )Heilongjiang (Weibull distribution) 黑龙江（服从Weibull 分布）6.5350( ) 4.2873 ( ) exp (1.7575 1.7575xxfx7.5350= ) 02468101214-0.2 -0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Analysis results (研究结果 )J
15、ilin (Normal distribution)吉林 （服从正态分布）21 ( 0.002014)( ) exp 0.2952 0.0277xfx+=0123456789-0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.2Analysis results (研究结果 )Liaoning (Weibull distribution)辽宁（服从Weibull 分布）2.1316( ) 1.0836 ( ) exp (2.89 2.89xxfx3.1316= ) 02468101214-0.4 -0.2 -0.0 0.2Analysis results (研究结果 )Henan (Weibull dis
16、tribution)河南（服从Weibull 分布）1.5212( ) 1.0455 ( ) exp (2.4114 2.4114xxfx2.5212= ) 0246810-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.1Analysis results (研究结果 )Shandong (Weibull distribution)山东（服从Weibull 分布）2.0047( ) 1.0428 ( ) exp (2.8814 2.8814xxfx3.0047= ) 024681012-0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.1Analysis results (研究结果 )Sichuan (Logisti
17、c distribution)四川（服从Logistic分布）0.002068 0.00206820.048335 0.048335( ) 0.048335 (1 )xxfx e e+= + 024681012-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.2Analysis results (研究结果 )Guizhou (Logistic distribution)贵州（服从Logistic分布）0.000298 0.00029820.049286 0.0492861() (1 )0.049286xxfx e e= + 024681012-0.250 -0.125 -0.000 0.12
18、5 0.250Analysis results (研究结果 )Guangxi (Logistic distribution)广西（服从Logistic分布）0.000622 0.00062220.051701 0.0517011() (1 )0.051701xxfx e e+= + 048121620-0.2 -0.0 0.2 0.42. Agricultural risk management农业风险管理2.1 Agricultural risk management农业风险管理2.2 Agriculture risk management tools农业风险管理工具2.3 Framewor
19、k system of integrated risk management农业风险管理系统框架设计2.1 Agricultural risk management农业风险管理 Not eliminate or avoid agricultural risk并不是消灭或消除农业风险 tradeoffs between changes in risk, expected returns, entrepreneurial freedom, and other variables需要在风险、预期回报、经营自主权等因素之间进行权衡 Select proper risk management tools
20、 for different types of risk针对不同的风险类型，要设计不同的风险管理工具 Portfolio management风险组合管理2.2 Agriculture risk management tools农业风险管理工具 Agricultural insurance（ 农业保险 ）- used to disperse the independent risks. 用于分散独立风险- effective management tool for yield risk in developed countries发达国家经验已证明，农业保险是生产风险管理的有效工具- dece
21、ntralize natural risks suffered by some farmers to a multitude of insurance participators.将单个农户的灾害转移给众多参保农户承担- government will offer appropriate subsidiary in finance to advocate the farmers to participate into crop insurance.政府需要提供合理的费用补贴，以鼓励农户参加农业保险 Future market（期货市场）- used to transfer and disper
22、se the systemic risks. 用于分散和转移系统风险- effective management tool for price risk in developed countries发达国家经验已证明，期货市场是市场风险的有效管理工具- Provide Hedge mechanism transfer and decentralize various market risks from numerous producers and operators of agricultural products to speculators in futures market.通过对冲机制
23、，将众多农民的风险转嫁给期货市场投机者- has the function of price discovery, and can offer scientific and rational price directions to agricultural products production, processing and circulation.具有发现价格功能，可为农业生产者、加工者和贸易商提供科学合理的价格指导。 Contract farming（订单农业）- used to transfer and disperse the systemic risks.用于转移和分散系统风险-
24、effective management tool for market risk in developed countries发达国家经验已证明，订单农业是市场风险管理的有效工具- Provide Hedge mechanism transfer and decentralize various market risks from numerous farmers to odering enterprises.通过对冲机制，分散广大农户市场风险给订单企业- Ordering enterprises also reduce the risk by gaining stable price and supply of agricultural raw materials.通过订单，订单企业也获得稳定的原材料及价格，同样降低了市场风险
