1、Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 March 2010 Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited Overweight CCM, CCM US Policy changes and delays in new centers Price: $8.49 Price Target: $10.20 Previous: $13.00 China Healthcare Services Leon Chik, CFAAC (852) 2800-8590 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Li
2、mited John Rex (1-212) 622-6600 J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. Scott Hansen (1-212) 622-2250 Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited (Reuters: CCM, Bloomberg: CCM US) $ in th, year-end Dec FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12ERevenue ($ th) 42,842 56,941 89,078 119,349Net Profit ($ th) 6,800.0 20,026.9 33,046.7 4
3、2,493.5EPS ($) 0.27 0.41 0.67 0.86DPS ($) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Revenue growth (%) 70.2% 32.9% 56.4% 34.0%EPS growth (%) (107.1%) 51.4% 64.3% 28.1%ROCE 9.2% 7.4% 11.3% 13.0%ROE 2.7% 6.1% 9.2% 10.7%P/E (x) 31.4 20.8 12.6 9.9P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 8.2 5.1 3.7Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.
4、0% 0.0%Shares O/S (mMarket cap ($Market cap ($Price ($) Date Of Price Free float (%)3-mth trading v3-mth trading v3-mth trading vS (* J.P. Morgan estimates). Share prices are as of 19 March 2010. 8 Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 March 2010Leon Chik, CFA (852) 2800-8590 Table 8: CMSQuarterly profit
5、 and loss Year end Dec (US$000) 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10E 2Q10E 3Q10E 4Q10E Lease and management services 6,963 9,808 10,425 11,021 9,428 13,613 13,890 14,919 Management Services 1,224 748 984 1,266 480 538 590 628 Hospital 0 0 0 0 0 0 947 1,082 Other, net 12 20 60 426 182 198 215 231 Total Revenues
6、 8,199 10,576 11,469 12,713 10,089 14,349 15,642 16,861 Lease and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures Lead or Co
7、-manager: JPMSI or its affiliates acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited within the past 12 months. Client of the Firm: Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI
8、; during the past 12 months, JPMSI provided to the company investment banking services. Investment Banking (past 12 months): JPMSI or its affiliates received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services from Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited. Investment Banking (next 3
9、months): JPMSI or its affiliates expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited. Non-Investment Banking Compensation: An affiliate of JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12 months for
10、products or services other than investment banking from Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited. 0123456789101112131415161718Price($)Dec09Dec09Dec09Dec09Jan10Jan10Jan10Feb10Feb10Feb10Mar10Mar10Mar10Mar10Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited (CCM) Price ChartOW $13Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Mor
11、gan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.Initiated coverage Jan 20, 2010. This chart shows J.P. Morgans continuing coverage of this stock; the current analystmay or may not have covered it over the entire period.J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.Date
12、Rating Share Price ($) Price Target ($) 20-Jan-10 OW 10.37 13.00 Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the
13、stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Neutral Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Underweight Over the next six to twelve month
14、s, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the
15、 expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the
16、 certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: Leon Chik, CFA: China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited (2877.HK), Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited (CCM), Kingboard Chemical (0148.HK), Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK), Lee our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category;
17、and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http:/ , or you can contact the analyst nam
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38、overning law permits otherwise. “Other Disclosures” last revised March 1, 2010. 15 Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 March 2010Leon Chik, CFA (852) 2800-8590 Copyright 2010 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.
