1、April 11, 2010 China: Telecom Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 April 11, 2010 China: Telecom Services New govt doc unlikely to change operators 3G capex/sub targets 8 govt agencies ask local subsidiaries to assist 3G build/R unlikely to change operators 3G strategies We have recei
2、ved numerous queries from investors with concerns over whether this document may be a reflection of dissatisfaction by the MIIT with operators 3G capex budgets or sub takeup and questioning whether this will result in an increase in operators 2010E 3G capex or sub targets (10m/8m/12m for CM/CT/CU re
3、spectively) and thus trigger a price war. We do not believe so, because: 1) The document focus is to request local-level govt agencies to join to facilitate 3G construction and application R downside risk: further capex cut by telcos. Risks: for CT, upside risk include better CDMA take-up; downside
4、risk: competition/fixed line pressure. Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. UPCOMING EVENTS Apr 20 China Mobile 1Q10 results Apr 28 China Telecom 1Q10 results Apr 29 China Unicom 1Q10 results RELATED RESEARCH China: Telecom Services: Competition, Capex may positively surprise Buy CU
5、/CM, D/G CCS, Jan 29, 2010 China telecom services: 3G ambitions expanding, TD and structural reform re-emphasized, Jan 23, 2009 Helen Zhu +852-2978-0048 | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a res
6、ult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclos
7、ures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment ResearchApril 11, 2010 China: Telecom Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Or
8、iginal text is available on the MIIT website at http:/ Below are the original Chinese text and English translation (translation by Goldman Sachs research). 工业和信息化部等 8 部门发布关于推进第三代移动通信网络建设的意见 The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and eight other ministries jointly issued the “Opin
9、ions regarding advancement of 3G mobile networks construction” 2010 年 3 月 17 日，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、科技部、财政部、国土资源部、环境保护部、住房和城乡建设部、国家税务总局联合印发了关于推进第三代移动通信网络建设的意见。全文如下： March 17, 2010, The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science
10、 and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Housing and Urban-Rural Construction and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the “ Opinions regarding advancement of 3G mobile networks construction”, as below: 关于推
11、进第三代移动通信网络建设的意见 Opinions regarding advancement of 3G mobile networks construction 工信部联通 2010106 号 MIIT decree 2010 No. 106 各省、自治区、直辖市、计划单列市及新疆生产建设兵团工业和信息化主管部门、通信管理局、发展改革委、科技厅（委、局）、财政厅（局）、国土资源厅（局）、环保厅（局）、建设厅（局）、国税局、地税局，中国电信集团公司、中国移动通信集团公司、中国联合网络通信集团有限公司： All provinces, autonomous regions, municipalit
12、ies, separately listed cities and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps departments of: Industry and Information Technology, Communications Authorities, Development and Reform Commission, Science and Technology Commission, Finance Commission, Land and Resources Commission, Department of Environ
13、mental Protection, Construction Commission, Internal Revenue Service, Local Taxation Commission, China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom Group: 为落实电子信息产业调整和振兴规划，引导推进第三代移动通信（以下简称 3G）网络建设，拉动国内相关产业发展，切实发挥3G对国民经济和社会发展的促进作用，现就推进我国 3G 网络建设提出以下意见： To implement the “Electronic Information Industrial Restr
14、ucturing and Revitalization Plan“, guide the construction of 3G mobile communication network construction, stimulate development of domestic related industries, and achieve the national economic and social developing impact of 3G, we have following suggestion on advancement of construction on our 3G
15、 network: 一、充分认识3G 网络建设的重要性，共同推进网络建设发展 One: Recognize the importance of building the 3G network, and jointly promote the development of network construction April 11, 2010 China: Telecom Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 发展 3G 是提升自主创新能力和相关产业竞争力的重要手段，也是应对金融危机影响，实现扩内需、保增长、促就业的重要举措，对于
16、我国国民经济和社会长远发展具有重要意义。 TD-SCDMA(以下简称 TD)是我国通信业第一个拥有自主知识产权的 3G 国际标准，对于建设创新型国家，加快产业结构调整和优化升级，保障网络与信息安全具有重要意义。 3G 网络建设是 3G发展中的关键环节，是促进产业壮大和应用繁荣的基础，关系 3G发展的成败。 Developing 3G is an important tool in enhancing the capability of innovation and competitiveness of related industries, as well as in responding t
17、o the current financial crisis, increasing domestic demand and growth. It carries significant importance to the longer-term development of Chinas national economy and society. TD-SCDMA (hereinafter referred to as TD) is the first domestic IP international standard held by China. It is important for
18、building an innovative country, speeding up industry structure reform and optimal upgrades, and ensuring our network and information security. 3G network construction is a key step to 3G development, the foundation to successful industry enlargement and development, and determinant of 3G development
19、 success. 自 2009 年初 3G 牌照发放以来，电信企业制定了 3G发展规划，在各方的共同努力和支持下，3G 网络建设基本顺利开展 ,投资已超过1600亿元。但目前在 3G 网络建设中，基站选址困难、业务应用不足等问题日益突出，将影响到后续3G 建设的顺利开展。 Since early 2009, when the 3G licenses were issued, telecommunications operators have set their plans for developing 3G. With the continuous effort and support of
20、 all parties, the construction of 3G network has been progressing smoothly, with cumulative investment in excess of Rmb 160bn. However, during 3G network construction, we have experienced various difficulties such as selection of base station sites and inadequate service applications. All of these m
21、ay affect the smooth future construction of 3G. 各有关单位要充分认识3G 网络建设的重要意义，着力解决 3G 网络建设和应用中的困难和问题，共同推进网络建设发展。 All parties should fully understand the importance of constructing 3G networks, and pay full effort to solve the difficulties and problems in constructing the 3G network, to jointly advance netw
22、ork construction and development. 二、落实3G发展规划，促进网络协调持续发展 Two: Implement 3G development plans and promote the harmonious development of network 电信企业要切实落实3G发展规划，按照国家有关规定和技术规范开展 3G 网络建设，加大加深 3G 网络覆盖，积极开展网络优化，改善网络性能，确保网络与信息安全。要统筹协调3G 与2G 以及未来网络演进的关系，充分利用 2G 已有网络资源，发挥已有投资效益，逐步引入增强型技术，在网络建设中考虑与未来演进的结合，保障网络
23、的平滑升级。要通过电信基础设施共建共享加快网络建设，节约建设成本，减少重复建设。到 2011 年， 3G 网络覆盖全国所有地级以上城市及大部分县城、乡镇、主要高速公路和风景区等， 3G 建设总投资4000亿元， 3G 基站超过40万个， 3G 用户达到 1.5亿户。 Telecom operators should conscientiously implement the 3G develop plans, in accordance with national regulations and technical specifications, carry out the 3G networ
24、k construction, improve the scale and depth of 3G network coverage, actively use network optimization, improve network performance, and ensure network and information security. To co-ordinate the development and evolution of 3G and 2G in the future, companies should fully utilize the existing covera
25、ge and resources of 2G network, increase investment efficiency, gradually introduce superior technologies, plan for smooth integration of those networks with future evolution, and ensure a smooth transition. By sharing the telecom infrastructure, we will speed up the construction of networks, reduce
26、 costs and avoid duplicate investment. By 2011, 3G network coverage will reach all cities April 11, 2010 China: Telecom Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 above the prefectural level and the majority of counties, towns, major highways and scenic areas, etc. The total investment of 3
27、G will reach Rmb 400 bn; 3G base stations will reach more than 400,000; and 3G subscribers will reach 150 million. 三、制定和出台 3G 网络建设的支持政策，解决网络建设困难 Three: Set and introduce related policies to support 3G network construction, resolve related difficulties 各级通信行业主管部门要会同城乡规划、国土资源、市政等部门，组织电信企业编制基站站址、管道、杆路等
28、设施的专项规划，专项规划应符合当地土地利用总体规划和城乡规划的要求并做好相关衔接。各级城乡规划、国土资源和投资主管部门在住宅小区、商住楼、办公楼等建设项目的审批中，明确为通信建设配套预留站址资源（包括机房、天面、铁塔、管道、分布系统等），在地铁、机场、车站、铁路、公路等公共设施项目的审批中统筹考虑通信建设的需求，并保证电信企业的平等进入。各级环保部门应根据移动通信网络点多面广的特点，在保障人民群众健康安全的同时，通过对移动通信网络建设规划的环评审批加快审批进度，对基站的建设可简化审批手续。各相关单位要积极协调推动政府机关、企事业单位开放楼宇资源提供站址，支持 3G 建设。 Department
29、s at all levels of the communication industry shall work with the Urban and Rural Planning Commission, the Land Resources Commission, the Municipal and other commissions, and organize telecom operators to establish base station sites, pipes, road and other facilities, and related development plans.
30、These plans should be consistent with the local Land Usage Plan and Urban Planning requirements to ensure that they are internally complementary. All levels of the Urban and Rural Planning Commission, and the Land Resources and Investment Commission, in the approval process of the construction proje
31、cts related to residential, commercial and residential areas and office buildings, should explicitly reserve resources and space for the construction of telecommunication networks (including exchanges, roofs, towers, pipes, distribution systems, etc.). In the approval process of subways, airports, r
32、ailway stations, railways, highways and other public infrastructure projects, they should take into consideration of the construction of telecommunication networks, and ensure the equal access of telecom operators. All levels of the Environmental Protection Divisions should, while ensuring protectio
33、n of the peoples health and security, expedite the examination and approval processes network construction plans, and simplify approval processes for base station construction. All relevant divisions should actively utilize all government units and companies to make available fixed assets for 3G net
34、work sites, and support the construction of 3G. 四、引导和支持 3G 网络应用发展和创新，带动3G 网络建设升级 Four: Lead and support 3G application development and innovation, assist 3G network construction upgrades 电信企业要以市场为导向，联合产业链相关企业，发挥各自网络和技术优势，开发适合 3G 网络及移动互联网的特色业务，不断丰富 3G业务种类，加快 3G应用的创新，探索 3G应用的商业模式，形成差异经营、合作共赢的良性发展局面，促进
35、工业化和信息化融合，以应用带动网络建设升级。对利用 3G开展研发、技术改造、增值服务的企业，符合税收法律法规规定条件的，依法享受有关税收优惠政策。将 TD 等 3G 的网络建设、应用和研发纳入产业结构调整指导目录鼓励类。 TD产品和应用 , 经认定为国家自主创新产品的，可列入国家自主创新产品目录和政府采购自主创新产品目录。鼓励政府、行业信息化和电子商务中广泛应用 TD 等 3G 技术。 Telecom operators should follow market forces, unite related value chain enterprises and fully utilize th
36、eir respective network and technological advantages. They should develop appropriate applications for 3G networks and mobile internet, constantly enrich 3G application types, accelerate 3G application innovation, explore 3G applications various business models, form models based on differentiation,
37、identify cooperative and win-win virtuous frameworks, promote the integration of information technology and industrialization, and drive the upgrade of 3G networks. All use of 3G research and April 11, 2010 China: Telecom Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 development, technological
38、 transformation, value-added services businesses with qualifying criterion shall be entitled to tax incentives/preferential treatment. We shall include the construction, research and development of TD and other 3G networks, into the “Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Restructuring“. TD products and
39、applications, qualifying as National Independent Innovation Products, can be included in the “National Independent Innovation Products Catalog“ and the “Government Procurement of Independent Innovation Products Catalog.“ We shall encourage government, industry, information and e-commerce to widely a
40、dopt and use TD and other 3G technologies. 五、继续落实和完善支持 3G发展的其他政策措施，保障 3G 网络建设 Five: Continue to implement and optimize policy support of 3G development, to ensure 3G network construction 继续利用国家科技重大专项、高新技术产业化专项、科技支撑计划、电子发展基金、重点产业振兴和技术改造专项资金、自主创新产业化资金等相关政策措施，落实国家对TD 等 3G 的各项支持。开展 3G 增强型技术和未来演进技术的标准化、产
41、业化和业务应用研发等工作，同时促进设备及终端产业的发展，根据发展需要，增加 3G 及其演进技术发展所需频率资源。加强对3G 网络与信息安全的监督和管理，完善网间互联互通监管措施，完善电信基础设施共建共享配套措施，营造健康有序的市场竞争环境。 We shall continue to utilize the National Scientific Major Projects, High Tech Industrialization Major Projects, Scientific Support Planning, Electronic Development Fund, Major In
42、dustries and Technology Reform Major Projects, Self Innovation Projects and other related policy funds, to implement Chinas support to TD and other 3G projects. We shall continue 3G enhancement and evolution technology standardization, industrialization and application development, while at the same
43、 time stimulating equipment and terminal industries development, and based on development needs, increase 3G and evolution technologies required spectrum resources. We shall fortify the monitoring and management of 3G network and information security, optimize inter-network interconnection enforceme
44、nt, optimize network infrastructure co-build and co-share policies, to create a healthy and orderly market competitive environment. 六、加强组织领导，确保各项工作落到实处 Six: Fortify organizational leadership, ensure implementation of various tasks 各有关单位要加强组织领导，落实责任分工，密切配合协作，务求实效，及时研究解决发展中出现的突出问题和矛盾，不断调整完善相关政策，进一步发挥3
45、G 网络建设和业务应用对国民经济和社会发展的促进作用。有关单位要加强对本意见贯彻执行情况的督促检查。 Various related organizations should fortify organizational leadership, implement tasks assigned, proactively cooperate with each other to seek concrete results, investigate and resolve any questions or conflicts that may emerge in the development p
46、rocess, continuously adjust and optimize related policies, to further realize the benefits that 3G network construction and application adoption may have on our economy and societal development. Related agencies should increase enforcement and follow up on implementation of this document. April 11,
47、2010 China: Telecom Services Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6 Reg AC I, Helen Zhu, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compen
48、sation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market.
49、The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the regions coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next years estimate
