1、State and Trends of theCarbon Market 2009The World BankKaran Capoor, Philippe AmbrosiWorld BankCARBON EXPOBarcelona, SpainMay 27, 2009MethodologyThis study is based on the following: Analysis of the World Banks confidential project database; Interviews with market players, including natural buyers i
2、n Europe Comprehensive review of published literature, incl. report by Ecosystem Marketplace/New Carbon Finance on voluntary market; Data and analysis by Evolution Markets.Project database includes: More than 2,200 project-based transactions (ERPAs signed); Completeness of information 80% in all fie
3、lds except onexact terms and price of transaction 50%. Aggregate data on allowance markets and secondary market: From major exchanges and OTC sources.Overall Market Doubles butCDM enabled by free allocation and overlap of issuance Large EUA supply with no matching demand Spot EUA price dropped 75%sC
4、ERs squeezed pCER purchases, prices down ETS short in 2008 Phase II likely to be long51525A-08 O-08 D-08 F-09 A-09( per tCO2e)EUAssCERspCERsSpot EUA, spot CER Preserve integrity; Increase efficiency Deepen reach and expand scalePotential CERsdeliveries by 2012- PDD -Potential CERsdeliveries by 2012-
5、 risk adj. -2,932 mln CERs1,318 mln CERsDelays Halve ProspectsMarket Design post-2012 Each ETS package has attractive design features:high level of auctioning for power sector; performance benchmarking agreed for free allocation to industry to the extent possible; high penalty for non-compliance 10-
6、year visibility for caps with option to adjust next phase effortwithin specified range; limited borrowinglarge space for offsets (not limited to CDM); supplemental efforts on RED; dedicated auctioning resources for internationalaction, including adaptation; high environmental integrity for borrowing
7、 (system level) Designs can benefit from simplicity and harmonization around best features of eachEU ETSCPRSUS W-MPotential for offsets post-2012All CDM registered projects80 MtCO2e per year, building up to292 MtCO2e per yearEU (30%) and W-M, by 2020600 MtCO2e per yearOECD Annex I: 25-40% below 1990 levels by 20203.1 GtCO2e per year (2.0-4.4 GtCO2e per year)Full report available atwww.carbonfinance.orgThank you
