1、 Nomura | Danone July 12, 20121 Danone issued its compiled consensus (based on contributions from over 20 analysts) for 2Q12 sales and 1H/FY12 results last evening. With the company having telegraphed in detail its margin outlook for the year, our margin expectations are largely in line with a narro
2、w consensus. We do see market expectation a little light for organic sales growth in 2Q12 and FY; with our forecast c.1% ahead of consensus for FY12 adj EPS. 2Q12 sales While consensus sales for 2Q 12 are largely in line with our estimates, we believe consensus estimates for organic growth of 4.9% v
3、s our estimate of 5.3% fail to take into account some carry forward impact of pricing taken last year (even with required discounting in EU dairy), with consensus expectation of pricing at 2.6% vs. our estimate of 3.0% and volumes in line at 2.2%. This captures: pricing increases that we expect in A
4、sian Baby and Waters; an absence of price promotion in US Greek yoghurt as capacity constraints peaked in 2Q; and Russian pricing and premiumisation in Dairy. We are largely in line with cons. for net contribution from acquisitions/ disposal, but we estimate lower FX contribution at 1.7% vs cons. of
5、 2.1%. Divisionally, we expect better growth in Dairy vs. cons. (NE 3.8%, cons 2.9%); this, we believe, is on account of the recent profit warning by the company with respect to a slowdown in southern Europe and that cons. fails to take into account positive growth momentum in Russia and US dairy de
6、velopment in H1, particularly loss of share highlighted by General Mills recently in high growth Greek segment in the US. We come largely in line with consensus for other divisions, however for Water we believe that, although consensus fails to take into account the carry forward impact of pricing t
7、aken in H2 last year with pricing at 2.0% vs. NE 7.6%, this is offset by volume expectations of 3.8% vs. NE of -2.2% with cons. failing to take into account the higher comps on the back of spike in Japan shipments in the previous year and dreadful weather in western Europe this year. We note the neg
8、ative mix impact on the volume profile but see this as still offset by Asian pricing 4Q11. 1H/FY12 results Consensus largely in line for FY margin expectations (down 50 bps); however with respect to phasing, we expect H1 margins to be down 70 bps vs. consensus expectation of 60 bps. This is largely
9、on account of higher inflation expectation in H1 of 9% vs. 7% for FY12. 1% ahead of FY12 adj EPS consensus; while 1% lower for H1 EPS. Valuation The stock trades at a P/E of 14.0x 2013E and an EV/EBITDA of 8.7x EBITDA 2013E, over a 15% discount to the sector and an almost 40% discount to Unilever. D
10、anone DANO.PA BN FP . EUROPEAN FOOD/HPC EQUITY RESEARCH Consensus:NE in line on margin, ahead on growth Quick Note July 12, 2012 Rating Remains BuyTarget price Remains EUR 58.50Closing price July 11, 2012 EUR 49.42Research analysts European Food/HPC David Hayes - NIplc +44 20 7102 1341 Guillaume De
11、lmas, CFA - NIplc +44 20 7102 6918 Manjari Chatrath +91 22 4053 3802 Industry specialist Mark Howden - NIplc +44 20 7103 7128 See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Nomura | Danone July 12, 201222 Fig. 1: Quarterly sales estimates summ
12、ary vs consensus EUR million, unless otherwise stated Source: Company data, company compiled consensus, Nomura estimates Nomura Nomura Nomura Cons Cons Cons Delta1Q11 2Q11 FY11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E FY12E 2Q12E 3Q12E FY12E 2Q12ESales 4,758 4,969 19,318 5,117 5,316 5,222 20,823 5,320 5,225 20,823 0%volume
13、 growth 5.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 4.4% 3.8% 2.2% 4.0% 3.2% 0value growth 3.6% 5.7% 4.8% 4.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 40Organic growth 8.7% 9.0% 7.9% 6.9% 5.3% 6.8% 6.3% 4.9% 6.2% 6.0% 40forex growth 2.5% (3.7)% (1.7)% 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% (40)scope growth 8.4% 8.1% 7.4% (0.4)% 0.0
14、% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0Reported growth 19.6% 13.3% 13.6% 7.5% 7.0% 8.7% 7.8% 7.2% 8.7% 7.7%DivisionalsFresh Dairy 2,851 2,821 11,235 2,960 2,977 2,975 11,909 2,948 2,955 11,828 1%volume growth 2.9% (0.2)% (0.1)% (0.1)% 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 0.5% 2.0% 1.2% 130value growth 3.7% 5.7% 4.7% 3.9% 2.0% 2.0%
15、2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% (20)organic growth 6.5% 5.5% 4.6% 3.8% 3.8% 5.0% 4.5% 2.9% 3.7% 3.6% 90Waters 718 949 3,229 841 1,017 904 3,565 1,018 918 3,577 0%volume growth 10.7% 10.0% 8.8% 7.7% (2.2)% 4.0% 3.1% 3.8% 6.0% 5.2% (600)value growth 2.6% 8.9% 6.9% 8.7% 7.6% 5.0% 5.9% 2.0% 4.4% 4.0% 560organic gro
16、wth 13.3% 18.9% 15.7% 16.4% 5.4% 9.0% 8.9% 5.7% 10.0% 9.0% (30)Baby Nutrition 910 907 3,673 1,014 1,002 1,018 4,060 1,019 1,016 4,108 -2%volume growth 5.8% 5.2% 5.6% 3.8% 6.0% 7.5% 6.9% 5.2% 5.7% 5.2% 80value growth 5.4% 4.4% 5.1% 5.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.1% 4.5% 3.2% 4.0% (170)organic growth 11.2% 9.5% 10.
17、7% 9.0% 8.8% 10.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2% 9.0% (20)Medical Nutrition 279 293 1,181 302 320 324 1,288 320 326 1,289 0%volume growth 9.7% 8.6% 9.9% 7.1% 9.0% 9.0% 8.9% 7.9% 7.5% 7.5% 110value growth (0.4)% 0.1% (0.5)% (0.7)% (1.3)% (2.0)% (1.3)% (0.5)% (0.5)% (0.3)% (80)organic growth 9.3% 8.7% 9.4% 6.4% 7.7%
18、 7.0% 7.6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 20Nomura | Danone July 12, 201233 Fig. 2: 1H/FY 12 estimates summary vs consensus EUR in millions, except per share data, unless otherwise stated Source: Company data, company compiled consensus, Nomura estimates Nomura Nomura Cons Cons Delta1H11 FY11 1H12E FY12E 1H12E FY12
19、E FY12ETrading Operating Profit (EBIT) Fresh Dairy 682 1,475 653 1,441 651 1,441Waters 231 424 249 472 253 471Baby Nutrition 360 708 387 785 397 797Medical Nutrition 122 236 131 254 130 255Total EBIT Danone 1,396 2,843 1,420 2,952 1,435 2,956 0%Total EBIT Margin Danone 14.3% 14.7% 13.6% 14.2% 13.8%
20、14.2%bps (70) (50) (60) (50)Cost of net debt (88) (174) (83) (166) (83) (165)Other financial income/(expense) (47) (120) (63) (125) (48) (100)Total financial cost (135) (294) (145) (291) (127) (257)Income before tax 1,261 2,549 1,274 2,661 1,301 2,700Income tax (331) (626) (347) (695) (341) (707)Net
21、 income/(loss) of affiliates 23 46 35 70 26 55Net income 953 1,969 962 2,036 984 2,045- Group share 866 1,785 872 1,856 897 1,856- Non controlling interest share 87 184 90 180 90 181Basic EPS 1.432.781.473.121.493.10Diluted EPS 1.42 2.77 1.46 3.11 1.48 3.09Adjusted fully diluted EPS 1.44 2.89 1.46 3
22、.11 1.48 3.09 1%Average no. of shares to calculate basic EPS 603.0 601.3 594.3 594.3 602.2 602.1Average no. of shares to calculate diluted EPS 606.0 604.3 597.3 597.3 603.9 603.5Nomura | Danone July 12, 20124 Appendix A-1 Analyst Certification We, David Hayes and Guillaume Delmas, hereby certify (1)
23、 that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or view
24、s expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company. Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures The term “Nomura Grou
25、p Company“ used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any affiliate or subsidiary of Nomura Holdings, Inc. Nomura Group Companies involved in the production of Research are detailed in the disclaimer below. Issuer name Ticker Price Price date Stock rating Sector rating Disclosures Danone BN FP E
26、UR 49.42 11-Jul-2012 Buy Bearish A6 Unilever ULVR LN 2132p 11-Jul-2012 Reduce Bearish A9 Unilever NV UNA NA EUR 26.60 11-Jul-2012 Reduce Bearish A9 A6 A Nomura Group Company expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the issuer in the next three months. A
27、9 Nomura Securities International Inc. makes a market in securities of the issuer. Previous Rating Issuer name Previous Rating Date of change Danone Neutral 14-Jun-2011 Unilever Buy 20-Jan-2010 Unilever NV Buy 14-Jan-2010 Danone (BN FP) EUR 49.42 (11-Jul-2012) Rating and target price chart (three ye
28、ar history) Buy (Sector rating: Bearish) Date Rating Target price Closing price 20-Jun-12 58.50 47.93517-Jan-12 62.00 47.2012-Sep-11 60.50 43.63 14-Jun-11 BUY 50.41 14-Jun-11 64.00 50.4113-Jan-11 NEUTRAL 45.69 13-Jan-11 46.50 45.6915-Nov-10 44.50 46.45509-Sep-10 42.50 44.61 13-Jul-10 41.10 45.9216-A
29、pr-10 39.50 45.55515-Mar-10 38.50 43.69 14-Jan-10 38.10 43.1115-Oct-09 37.50 40.72515-Jul-09 31.50 36.00 For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology We derive our price target of EUR 58.5 from our DCF-based analysis. We use a WACC of 9.1%, a
30、 terminal growth rate of 3.6% discounted back from 2018 to 2012 and a long-term ROIIC of 11%. The benchmark index for this stock is Dow Jones STOXX 600 Food all of which may cause variances from our earnings projections. Unilever NV (UNA NA) EUR 26.60 (11-Jul-2012) Rating and target price chart (thr
31、ee year history) Reduce (Sector rating: Bearish) Date Rating Target price Closing price 17-Jan-12 22.60 25.5904-Nov-11 21.10 24.45508-Aug-11 21.30 22.405 21-Jul-11 20.50 22.89504-May-11 21.40 22.2204-Feb-11 21.60 21.80 13-Jan-11 23.40 22.8610-Nov-10 23.00 22.2706-Aug-10 22.00 21.07 26-Apr-10 23.00 2
32、3.3708-Feb-10 21.90 21.2325-Jan-10 21.70 22.02 14-Jan-10 REDUCE 22.35 14-Jan-10 22.00 22.3519-Nov-09 23.00 20.66 29-Oct-09 23.40 21.3903-Aug-09 20.40 19.115For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology We derive our target price of EUR 22.6 fr
33、om our DCF-based analysis. We use a WACC of 9.5%, a terminal growth rate of 4.1% discounted back from 2018E to 2011E, and a long-term ROIIC of 11.8%. The benchmark index for this stock is Dow Jones STOXX 600 Food all of which may cause variances from our earnings projections. Nomura | Danone July 12
34、, 201266 Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura research is available on Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, MarkitHub, Reuters and ThomsonOne. Important disclosures may be read at http:/ or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc.,
35、 on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email grpsupport- for help. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking act
36、ivities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with cove
37、red companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Any authors named in this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. Industry Specialists identified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are res
38、ponsible for the sales and trading effort in the sector for which they have coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content of research reports in which their names appear. Marketing Analysts identified in some Nomura research reports are research analysts employed by N
39、omura International plc who are primarily responsible for marketing Nomuras Equity Research product in the sector for which they have coverage. Marketing Analysts may also contribute to research reports in which their names appear and publish research on their sector. Distribution of ratings (US) Th
40、e distribution of all ratings published by Nomura US Equity Research is as follows: 43% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 0% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 51% have been as
41、signed a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 0% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 6% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rat
42、ing; 0% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 30 June 2012. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Distribution of ratings (Global) The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research
43、 is as follows: 46% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 40% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 43% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosure
44、s, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 11% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 21% of companies with this rating are investment banking cli
45、ents of the Nomura Group*. As at 30 June 2012. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Explanation of Nomuras equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America The rating system is a relative system indicating expected per
46、formance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to target price defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analysts assessment of
47、the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc. STOCKS A rating of Buy, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of Neutral, indicates th
48、at the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of Reduce, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of Suspended, indicates that the rating, target price and estimates have be
49、en suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including, but not limited to, when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: please see valuation methodologies for explanations
