1、,相关研究,2013 年 2 月 28 日中国：钢铁证券研究报告铁矿石新产能推动钢铁利润率上行周期；强力买入鞍钢 H 股（摘要）钢铁行业利润率萎缩局面有望结束,我们认为 2013 年将成为中国钢铁行业的转折之年，因为新增铁矿石产能的显著,评级和 12 个月目标价格,增加以及钢铁产量增长的放缓终将使定价权从铁矿石供应商转到钢铁生产企业，,Rating,Directors Cut TP,推动钢铁企业自 2004 年以来首次出现利润率的持续扩张。我们预计当前在建的新铁矿石原矿年产能大约 4.40 亿吨， 其中有 40%左右（年产能约 1.8 亿吨）可能在 2013-2015 年投产，使得 2015
2、年铁矿石自给率达 40%的官方目标有望实现。,BaosteelAngang (H)Angang (A)Magang (H)Magang (A)Wugang,Prev.BuyBuyBuy*NeutralNeutralNeutral,NewBuyBuy*BuyNeutralNeutralNeutral,TP6.07.05.02.82.22.7,Potentialup/down20%39%37%25%9%-6%,在长达 10 年的超强上升周期之后铁矿石供应显著增长我们预计辽宁和河北这两个铁矿石生产大省将占到总新增产能（主要来自钢铁企业自有矿山）的 53%，这意味着一旦新矿山达产，主要钢铁企业的铁矿石
3、自给率将会迅速提高。我们预计 2013 年中国铁矿石自供率将从 2012 年的 30%上升至33%，结束十年来中国钢铁企业定价权缺失的局面。,注：目标价格以 12 个月计算，H 股为港元，A 股为人民币。较目标价格的潜在上行/下行空间基于 2 月 27 日收盘价。*该股位于我们的地区强力买入名单资料来源： 高盛研究预测2012 年业绩公告日期,钢铁产量增长将放缓；铁矿石周期将发生转变,Ticker,Reporting date,我们预计 2013 年中国钢铁产量将增长 5%至 7.45 亿吨，而全球铁矿石供应将增长 9.5%。使全球铁矿石市场自 2003 年以来首次出现供应严重过剩的局面。这意
4、,BaosteelAngangMagang,600019.SS0347.HK, 000898.SZ0323.HK, 600808.SS,3/29/20133/27/20133/26/2013,味着钢铁生产企业的原材料成本在近十年的上行周期之后变得更加可控。,Wugang 600005.SS注：公告日期可能有所变动,4/26/2013,资料来源： 上海/深圳证券交易所鞍钢是铁矿石自给率上升的首要受益者鞍钢和马钢的母公司在建铁矿石年产能分别为 5,500 万吨和 1,800 万吨。我们预,计一旦这些项目达产之后，它们的上市公司都将从母公司采购更多铁矿石。此外，我们预计板材价格表现将继续优于长材价格
5、，从而使鞍钢和宝钢受益。我们重申对鞍钢 H 股的买入评级，并取代鞍钢 A 股加入强力买入名单。尽管我们维持对鞍钢 A 股的买入评级，但我们更看好其 H 股，因为该股较我们基于 DirectorsCut 的 12 个月目标价格具有更大上行空间。我们维持对宝钢的买入评级。*全文翻译将随后提供,中国：金属及采矿：春节后库存回补将推动价格进一步上涨；看好水泥和铜 2013 年 1 月 25 日,张富盛 执业证书编号: S1420512030001+86(21)2401-8945 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系
6、，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究,3,6,9,2,2013 年 2 月 28 日Table of ContentsIron ore cycle to turn on new supply response, benefiting steels2013: The beginning of the steel margin up-cycleAngang (H): Best positioned in margin e
7、xpansion; up to CL BuyDisclosure Appendix,中国：钢铁12,Stock prices in this report are as of Feb 27, and commodity prices as of Feb 22, unless otherwisestated.Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Julian Zhu, Yi Zhu and Yan Yan of Goldman Sachsin the preparation of this product.Exhibit 1: China ste
8、el sector valuation comps27-Feb-,Ticker,Rating,2013,Ccy,12-mth,PotentialUpside,Mkt cap,CROCI,P/E (X),P/B (X),EV/EBITDA (X),Gross margin,ROE,Price,TP,/downside,(US$mn),2012E,2013E,2014E,2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E,BaosteelAngang (H)Angang
9、(A)Magang (H)Magang (A)Wugang,600019.SS0347.HK000898.SZ0323.HK600808.SS600005.SS,BuyBuyBuy*NeutralNeutralNeutral,4.995.023.642.242.022.88,CNYHKDCNYHKDCNYCNY,6.007.005.002.802.202.70,20%39%37%25%9%-6%,13,6464,6824,2292,2242,4985,886,5%3%3%2%2%4%,7%6%6%7%7%7%,8%7%7%9%9%7%,8.4nmnmnmnm60.3,10.7nmnmnmnm3
10、7.3,6.39.78.86.77.523.6,0.80.60.60.60.70.8,0.70.60.60.60.70.8,0.70.60.50.60.60.8,7.021.921.019.620.47.7,5.58.78.36.56.76.9,4.05.85.53.73.86.2,8%0%0%0%0%5%,10%7%7%4%4%7%,13%11%11%7%7%9%,9%-8%-8%-15%-15%1%,7%2%2%0%0%2%,11%6%6%9%9%3%,Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Rese
11、arch estimates高华证券投资研究,3,2013 年 2 月 28 日,中国：钢铁,Iron ore cycle to turn on new supply response, benefiting steelsWe expect domestic iron ore supply to rise further, weighing on iron ore pricesAfter a decade-long strong up-cycle of iron ore pricing, we expect a significant new supplyresponse from the d
12、omestic mines from 2013 onward. Although we agree that China shouldremain a high cost supplier of iron ore compared to global major suppliers, we believe theeffective industry average cost should be around USD90-110/tonne instead of the consensusestimate of US$140/tonne.We estimate up to 440mtpa iro
13、n ore ROM capacity is currently under construction in China, withat least 40% of which to come on line by 2015. We forecast domestic iron ore ROM productionwill increase 13% yoy in 2013E to 1.48bn tons, lifting China self-sufficiency rate to 33% in 2013Evs. 30% in 2012. The bigger- and faster-than-e
14、xpected rise of domestic supply combined withmore new ex-China capacity coming on stream should start to weigh on iron prices. We forecast2013 iron ore prices at US$144/ton (+11% yoy), followed by a 13% decline in 2014E to US$126/t.Exhibit 2: New iron ore projects in ChinaNo. of projects under,Size
15、(ROM output)10mt5-10mt2-5mtTotal,/planned construction11144166,Added capacity (mtpa)21098128436,Investment (Rmb mn)732139133,Source: MysteelWe estimate Liaoning and Hebei, Chinas top two iron ore production provinces, will account for53% of total new iron ore capacity, which will mainly come from st
16、eel mills captive mines,suggesting immediately higher iron ore self sufficiency for major steel mills once the new iron oremines come on stream. Hebei Iron and Steel Group and Angang Group are the major producerswith capacity being built in each region.Exhibit 3: New iron ore projects in China (by p
17、rovince)Liaoning, Hebei and Anhui province account for 66% of new iron ore projects,No. of projects,Capacity (mtpa),% of total,LiaoningHebeiAnhuiSichuanXinjiangShandongShanxiHunanYunnanShaanxiFujianHubeiGansuJilinHeilongjiangTotal,1881237515111111166,1527755302323221212875443436,35%18%13%7%5%5%5%3%3
18、%2%1%1%1%1%1%,Source: Mysteel高华证券投资研究,4,2013 年 2 月 28 日Exhibit 4: 2012 iron ore output by region,Exhibit 5: Iron ore new capacity by regionmt600,中国：钢铁,531,2012 iron ore output,Others20%Anhui3%Shanxi6%,Hebei40%,500400300,New capacity under-construcion,Inner,200,163,154152,Mongolia7%Sichuan12%,1000,77
19、,30,92,0,81,22,46 55,Liaoning12%,Hebei,Sichuan,Liaoning,Inner,Shanxi,Anhui,Mongolia,Source: CEICExhibit 6: China iron ore production, import and consumption,Source: CEIC, Mysteel,mn tonnesAnnual crude steel productionEAF contributionBF crude steel productionIron ore consumption (62%)Iron ore importI
20、ron ore import (adjusted to 62%)Iron ore inventory at ports (year end)Change in inventoryChina self-supplied iron ore (62%)Self-sufficiencyChina ROM production (excl. below-scale production)yoyImplied Fe grade of domestic oreIron ore fines 62% Fe CFR China (US$/dmt),200642211%37860832632638328547%57
21、445%35%65,20074889%443713384384501234148%69822%34%117,20084989%453729446446611129440%78512%27%141,200956810%51382662859866623328%87511%21%81,201062510%56490862459473732135%1,06522%23%145,201169510%6261,008687654962237637%1,1447%24%168,201271710%6451,03974470873(22)30930%1,31014%19%130,2013E74510%671
22、1,08076072373035633%1,48313%19%144,Source: CEIC, Mysteel, Goldman Sachs ResearchWe view currently elevated iron ore prices as not sustainableThe over 70% iron ore price surge from its recent low in September 2012 is highly speculative asevidenced by: 1) coking coal prices (which have the same demand
23、 driver as iron ore) reboundingonly 25% during the same period, and 2) supply to the spot market becoming increasinglydominated by major iron ore suppliers with much less iron ore from the conventional spot marketsupplier, India.高华证券投资研究,7-Sep-12,12-Oct-12,19-Oct-12,26-Oct-12,4-Jan-13,1-Feb-13,8-Feb
24、-13,5-Oct-12,16-Nov-12,23-Nov-12,30-Nov-12,14-Dec-12,21-Dec-12,28-Dec-12,14-Sep-12,21-Sep-12,28-Sep-12,2-Nov-12,9-Nov-12,7-Dec-12,11-Jan-13,18-Jan-13,25-Jan-13,15-Feb-13,22-Feb-13,Feb-09,Feb-11,Feb-10,Feb-12,Feb-13,May-09,May-11,May-10,May-12,Nov-10,Aug-09,Nov-09,Aug-11,Nov-11,Aug-10,Aug-12,Nov-12,A
25、pr-09,Oct-09,Feb-10,Apr-10,Oct-10,Feb-11,Apr-11,Oct-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Oct-12,Feb-13,Jun-09,Aug-09,Dec-09,Jun-10,Aug-10,Dec-10,Jun-11,Aug-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Aug-12,Dec-12,5,2013 年 2 月 28 日Exhibit 7: Iron ore and coking coal prices performance,中国：钢铁Exhibit 8: 2012 China iron ore import - Australia andBra
26、zil jointly take 69.4%, 5.3% higher than 2010/11 level,RebasedSep 7 = 100180,Kailuan fat clean coal,Russia2%Canada,IndonesiaOthers1% 11%,Australian PB at port,171,171,2%Ukraine,2%,160,Iran,140,2%India5%,33mt41mt,351mt,Australia47%,South Africa,120100,125,6%,Brazil,164mt,22%,Source: SXCoal, Mysteel,S
27、ource: Mysteel.We believe iron ore prices are likely to stay at elevated levels or even rebound further on the backof the currently low iron ore inventory and the potential for further restocking when demandrebounds in 2Q13. However, with more new capacity starting to come on stream from 2H13, irono
28、re prices are likely to peak in 2Q13.,Exhibit 9: Iron ore prices domestic and import,Exhibit 10: Iron ore inventory,Rmb/t,Tangshan iron ore,mn tonnes,1600,Australian PB at port,1,515,10090,OthersAustralian,BrazilianIndian,14001200,1,180,807060,1000,1,075,50,800,905,905,4030,20,600400Source: Mysteel高
29、华证券投资研究,630,100Source: Mysteel,Feb-05,Feb-06,Feb-07,Feb-08,Feb-09,Feb-10,Feb-11,Feb-12,Feb-13,Jun-05,Oct-05,Jun-06,Oct-06,Jun-07,Oct-07,Jun-08,Oct-08,Jun-09,Oct-09,Jun-10,Oct-10,Jun-11,Oct-11,Jun-12,Oct-12,6,2013 年 2 月 28 日,中国：钢铁,2013: The beginning of the steel margin up-cycleSince 2004, Chinese st
30、eel producers have seen their margins constantly under pressure as acombined result of: 1) surging iron ore prices and 2) worsening overcapacity.Iron ore prices increased six-fold in 2003-2012 while HRC and rebar prices gained only 22% and36%, respectively. Accordingly, Angang and Magang saw their g
31、ross margins decline to 0% in2012 from 15% and 22%, respectively, in 2003 while Baosteel and Wugang saw their marginsdrop from 29%/23% in 2004 to 8%/5% in 2012E.,Exhibit 11: Relative performance steel vs. iron ore,Exhibit 12: China steel producers gross margins cycle,225,Rebar price perf.,HRC price
32、perf.,Iron ore price perf.,30%,Steel price,200175150,25%20%15%,rebound tooutpace rawmaterial -Sutainedmarginexpansionfrom 2013E,12510%1005%750%,50,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,-5%,Angang,Magang,Baosteel,Wugang,Source: Bloomberg.,Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Resear
33、ch estimates.,Now that we expect the global iron ore market to move into a meaningful surplus forthe first time since 2006, we believe 2012 should well be the trough for the Chinesesteel producers margins in this cycle, and we expect sustained margin expansionfrom 2013 onward.Exhibit 13: Global iron
34、 ore supply demand and pricing model,mn tonnes,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,Global demand,Crude steel production (incl. scrap)Iron ore consumption% growth,1,3271,615-2.7%,1,2271,578-2.4%,1,4121,76710.7%,1,5181,8494.4%,1,5421,8952.5%,1,6081,9764.1%,1,6762,0573.9%,1,7282,1182.9%,1
35、,7862,1853.1%,Seaborne demand,ChinaRoWTotal% growth,4464148608.9%,6282859135.8%,6243871,0119.6%,6873901,0776.2%,7203861,1062.6%,7603931,1534.1%,8154011,2165.2%,8504061,2563.2%,8804131,2932.9%,Seaborne supply,AustraliaBrazilRoWTotal% growth,3092822528447.1%,3632662769066.9%,4023112869999.4%,438316275
36、1,0282.8%,4853122721,0693.8%,5603302821,1728.8%,6543622771,2939.3%,7334142871,4339.8%,7804382901,5085.0%,Seaborne balance,Surplus/(deficit),(17),(8),(11),(49),(37),20,77,178,215,Price,IO fines 62% Fe CFR China (US$/dmt),$145,$168,$130,$144,$126,$90,$80,Source: IISI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research
37、 estimates高华证券投资研究,7,2013 年 2 月 28 日,中国：钢铁We expect steel names like Angang, with high self-sufficiency or parentco-supplied iron ore, torealize leveraged gain when steel price recovers, thanks to more controllable iron ore costs.Exhibit 14: Estimated iron ore supply breakdown Angang has the highest
38、 contributionfrom captive or parentco supplyMeishanXinyegang SteelShagang Group,Shangang GroupMagangWugang GroupXining Special SteelJiuquan SteelBaotou SteelBenxi SteelAngang,10%15%20%20%,30%,50%50%55%,0%,20%,40%,60%,80%,100%,Captive,Parentco supply,Domestic purchase,Import,Source: Mysteel.Moreover,
39、 the parent companies of Angang and Magang now have significant new iron orecapacity under construction as detailed below. We expect both listcos to source more iron orefrom their respective parent companies once the production of the new mines ramps up, leadingto an extended period of margin expans
40、ion.Exhibit 15: Iron ore resources owned by Angang and Magang Group,Angang Group,Magang Group,Location,2011 Output (mt),Location 2011 Output (mt),Qidashan MineQianan MineDagushan MineEast Anshan MineYanqianshan MineGongchangling Open Pit MineTotal,LiaoningLiaoningLiaoningLiaoningLiaoningLiaoning,3.2
41、1.8NANANANA25,Nanshan Mining Co.Gushan Mining Co.Taochong Mining Co.Luohe Mining Co.Zhangzhuang Mining Co.Total,AnhuiAnhuiAnhuiAnhuiAnhui,2.21.10.70.4UnderConstruction4.3,Source: MysteelDespite the improving margin outlook, Chinas steel sector is now trading below its cycle averagevaluations in term
42、s of P/B.高华证券投资研究,Feb-07,Feb-08,Feb-09,Feb-10,Feb-11,Feb-12,Feb-13,May-06,Aug-06,Nov-06,May-07,Aug-07,Nov-07,May-08,Aug-08,Nov-08,May-09,Aug-09,Nov-09,May-10,Aug-10,Nov-10,May-11,Aug-11,Nov-11,May-12,Aug-12,Nov-12,Feb-05,May-05,Feb-06,May-06,Feb-07,May-07,Feb-08,May-08,Feb-09,May-09,Feb-10,May-10,Fe
43、b-11,May-11,Feb-12,May-12,Feb-13,Aug-05,Nov-05,Aug-06,Nov-06,Aug-07,Nov-07,Aug-08,Nov-08,Aug-09,Nov-09,Aug-10,Nov-10,Aug-11,Nov-11,Aug-12,Nov-12,1-Oct-12,8-Oct-12,5-Nov-12,3-Dec-12,15-Oct-12,22-Oct-12,29-Oct-12,12-Nov-12,19-Nov-12,26-Nov-12,10-Dec-12,17-Dec-12,24-Dec-12,31-Dec-12,7-Jan-13,4-Feb-13,1
44、4-Jan-13,21-Jan-13,28-Jan-13,11-Feb-13,18-Feb-13,8,2013 年 2 月 28 日Exhibit 16: Angang (H) P/B Band chart,Exhibit 17: Baosteel P/B Band chart,中国：钢铁,HK$40,Share price,0.25X,1.25X,Rmb20,Share price,0.50X,1.00X,1.50X,2.00X,3.00X,3530,2.25X,3.25X,4.25X,1816,142512,2015,108,6104,50Source: Company data, Dat
45、astream,20Source: Company data, DatastreamWe expect the outperformance of flat steel prices over long steel since October 2012 to continueas a result of a divergent supply growth outlook.Exhibit 18: Much stronger price rebound in HRC than rebarPrice rebound since October 2012: 14% in HRC vs. 4% in rebarRmb/t, incl. VAT4,300,
