1、5.0,2013,1,2013,1,21,5.5%,U,2012,3.7,2.5,8.3,2013 2015,7.8% 7.2% 6.7%,8.3% 7.4% 6.8%,1,2.1% 0.4%,0.4%,2007,2012,1 3%,0 3%,1%,021-68761840,10 14%17.8%,0.3%,8 10%,2012,6.4%,S1010510120066,11,LNG14.7% 11,10.9%,15.1%,201210,11,2.4,2009,2011,2012,6.9% 35.1%,27.6% LNG,021-68762230,7.1%,LNG,21.2% -3.0%,,S1
2、010510120063,2012,400%,4,021-68761841,S1010512030004,30%,2013,2.81,11A0.24,EPS12E0.31,13E0.33,14E0.35,11A11.9,P/E12E9.2,13E8.6,14E8.0,12Q3PB1.5,2011,240%2012P/E=15,7.399.324.875.90,0.470.210.100.07,0.630.270.260.25,0.640.540.470.48,0.660.860.480.71,15.844.749.580.1,11.735.218.524.1,11.517.310.412.4,
3、11.210.810.18.3,1.72.22.41.7,Wind,7.747.556.658.41,0.330.020.090.37,0.500.360.460.78,0.650.600.600.82,0.740.680.630.86,23.4302.973.722.7,15.421.114.410.8,11.912.511.010.3,10.511.110.59.8,2.11.41.72.1,12,201310,.2012-12-12,2013,1,18,. 2012-11-5,U,LNG,A-H,2013,1,. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 15. 18.
4、18.18.19,18,BJ,2013,1,1 072 05,1212,. 1. 1,3 2012,. 1,4 085 046 087 088 089 07,121212121212,. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3,10 07 1211 201212 06 1213 2012 2013,. 3. 4. 4. 5,14 2003 201515 1983 201516 1983 201517 09 1219 05 1320 05 1321 06 1222 05 1223 07 1224 201225 07 1326 07 1327 06 1328 06 1329 07 1330 11 133
5、1 07 1332 07 1333 07 1334 10 1335 08 1336 11 12,GDP,. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9.10.10.10.10.10.12,2013,1,37 11 1238 10 1239 10 12,.12.12.12,40,LNG,.13,41 07 12,.13,42 10 1243 10 1244 2012,LNGLNGLNG,.13.13.14,45,LNG,.14,46,2%,2013,.18,47 2013M1,.19,48 07 13,A-H,.19,6,7,9,10,11
6、,12,13,14,15,16,17,1,2,4,5,2013,1,1 2007 20132 20123 2006 20154 2007 20155 2012 2015,. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6.11.12,8,2012,.15,.16.16.16.17.17.17.17.17.19,20132013,.19.20,3,201320132013,.20.20.20,13.6%,12.8%,10.7%,10.3%,4.2%,3.1%,3.7%,1,2013,1,U,2012,49,591,kWh12,11,U,10.0%,5.5%05 11,9.0%,1,07,12,2,05,12,KWh
7、,1 2,1 2,2012,0.0% 3.9% 11.5%,10.7%,8.3,2011,3.7,2.5,3,2012,4,08,12,08A,09A,10A,11A,12A,11.5%,12.5%2.0%,20%15%10%,14.8%12.0%,7.9%,15.9%14.0%12.2% 12.1% 11.5% 11.9%10.4%,73.9%,5%,6.0%5.4%,5.5%,3.9% 3.8%,3.9%,0.0%0%,2007,2013,12,%,07A14.85.716.09.017.614.8,07A100.02.776.513.761.85.1,08A5.43.13.82.14.1
8、3.1,08A100.02.675.313.361.05.0,09A6.48.04.50.85.21.9,09A100.02.674.112.660.54.8,10A14.83.915.915.115.912.0,10A100.02.374.912.761.04.8,11A12.03.712.29.312.712.0,11A100.02.275.012.461.44.8,12A5.50.03.94.33.85.0,12A100.02.073.912.360.54.7,13E7.83.06.67.36.39.0,13E100.02.073.112.259.74.8,1,(,2013,1,3,%,
9、07A20.214.412.013.622.230.623.311.917.012.911.4,07A41.68.42.35.711.47.46.415.11.09.811.1,08A4.61.11.75.32.96.110.63.09.910.412.8,08A41.38.02.25.711.17.46.814.71.010.211.8,09A5.53.23.58.27.00.49.75.711.813.012.6,09A41.07.82.15.811.27.07.014.71.010.812.5,10A17.79.917.017.515.723.024.412.126.213.611.3,
10、10A41.87.32.25.911.27.57.714.41.210.712.1,11A13.712.58.017.612.812.416.010.017.014.010.3,11A42.57.42.16.211.37.67.914.21.210.912.0,12A2.97.04.01.0-3.08.04.06.05.511.510.7,12A41.57.52.06.010.47.87.814.31.211.512.5,13E4.88.05.01.0-4.011.010.010.012.012.011.5,13E40.37.52.05.69.38.08.014.51.311.913.0,GD
11、P,11.91.2,9.00.6,8.70.7,10.31.4,9.21.3,7.80.7,8.01.0,2012,80,200MW,14,160MW,50,650MW,63.2%,15,510MW,19.3%,6,000kW,1,144,912MW,7.8% 2011,10.0%,11,8.2%,819,171MW,6.6% 2011,8.3%,11,6.7%,248,900MW,6.8% 2011,7.8%,11,7.8%,12,570MW,5 04,12,6,08,12,14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000,Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb-
12、 Feb- Feb- Feb- Mar- Apr-04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12CEIC,160140120100806040200-20,2004 2005,30 45%,2006 2008,9 14%,2009,22.8%,2010,2011,60%,6.6%,1.8% 2012,10.4%,2006 2011,2004 200523 34%,2012,7.7%,2012,7,466,2.0%,3,693,0.2%,3,772,3.9%,50.5%1,014,2011,51.6%26.9%,70.8%,10.5%,2,2013,1,7,08,12,8,08,12,20
13、12,40,303MW,17.1%,47.2%13,858MW,2011,69.5%34.4% 2011,26.1%,9 07,12,10,07,12,MW,20126.4%,2009,4,572,4,965,158,3403,555,3.3%,536,17.8%,2002,3,402,2012,15%3,2013,1,11,2012,12,06,12,5,000,4,572,4,965,3,555,17.8% 18%,40%30%,2,5000,12%6%0%,20%10%0%,-2,500,-3.3%,-6.4%,-6%,-10%,08M1-208M708M1209M609M1110M51
14、0M1011M4 11M9 12M3 12M8,-12%,-20%,-5,0002,2012,-18%,-30%,2012,2011,2012,2011,4,9784,2344,3874,7493,9635,5835,0145,2995,2654,1894,7904,1174,3154,5723,9655,0045,2884,4863,1094,3194,9084,7243,8914,1514,1204,0634,1604,7133,8143,870,4,9324,2504,4074,7954,0595,6785,2015,5245,5253,7515,0704,4114,5364,7304,
15、1605,1936,0694,9113,3694,5045,2905,2324,1573,7974,1794,0274,4944,5624,1764,076,0.9%-0.4%-0.5%-1.0%-2.4%-1.7%-3.6%-4.1%-4.7%11.7%-5.5%-6.7%-4.9%-3.3%-4.7%-3.6%-12.9%-8.7%-7.7%-4.1%-7.2%-9.7%-6.4%9.3%-1.4%0.9%-7.4%3.3%-8.7%-5.1%,5,1664,5415,0434,9624,4375,7025,6215,5715,3315,0715,0464,5584,7244,9654,6
16、015,2685,8084,5083,8144,5215,0474,8474,3375,1874,3644,8084,6504,3624,1763,249,5,0414,5415,0474,9674,4565,7855,7525,7425,5475,3015,2844,7975,0155,3054,9295,6866,3554,9414,1904,9745,6495,4554,9165,9345,0515,6175,6155,2695,3524,709,2.5%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-1.4%-2.3%-3.0%-3.9%-4.3%-4.5%-5.0%-5.8%-6.4%-6.
17、7%-7.3%-8.6%-8.8%-9.0%-9.1%-10.7%-11.1%-11.8%-12.6%-13.6%-14.4%-17.2%-17.2%-22.0%-31.0%,8.6%4.5%8.2%4.4%3.3%7.0%3.1%11.5%3.9%10.9%7.0%2.1%12.3%5.5%6.4%3.0%2.4%1.0%1.1%3.9%5.0%3.3%7.7%7.4%3.9%3.7%0.8%4.2%4.0%9.3%,1.4%13.9%5.8%6.9%3.8%10.9%9.9%11.3%3.4%7.3%9.4%13.0%18.2%7.8%16.2%1.8%8.5%9.8%4.0%7.4%2.
18、2%10.3%6.9%1.8%10.0%11.8%2.9%6.2%6.6%19.1%,0.5%1.2%2.1%5.0%0.6%11.0%5.1%9.1%2.5%7.7%7.7%7.5%23.4%6.6%19.2%1.8%0.0%9.9%2.4%8.3%2.9%11.1%1.8%0.0%14.3%25.3%3.9%7.5%8.6%27.0%,2013 2015,7.8% 7.2%,6.7%,2008,2009,4,12M1-2,12M3,12M4,12M5,12M6,12M7,12M8,12M9,12M10,12M11,12M12,13M1-2,13M3,13M4,13M5,13M6,13M7,
19、13M8,13M9,13M10,13M11,13M12,03A,04A,05A,06A,07A,08A,09A,10A,11A,12A,13E,14E,15E,3,1.2,2013,1,0.6,0.7,2010,1.4,2013,2012,2006,2015,0.7,2013,1.0,0.4,GDP,0.4,FAI,0.2,kWh/,kWh,GDP,%,kWh,FAI,%,FAI,kWh,kWh,2006A2007A2008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013E2014E2015E,13.1413.2113.2813.3513.4113.4713.5313.5813.6413.69,2,1582,4672,5852,7293,1323,4923,6673,9294,2124,474,28,36832,59034,33436,43041,99947,02649,59153,35857,42661,252,11.6011.909.008.7010.309.207.808.007.407.10,
