1、中国外汇储备变动影响因素的回归分析39113115 王玉蕾1978-2011年中国的名义GDP数据如下年 份国 民国内生产总收入总 值19783645.23645.219794062.64062.619804545.64545.619814889.54891.619825330.55323.419835985.65962.719847243.87208.119859040.79016.0198610274.410275.2198712050.612058.6198815036.815042.8198917000.916992.3199018718.318667.8199121826.22178
2、1.5199226937.326923.5199335260.035333.9199448108.548197.9199559810.560793.7199670142.571176.6199778060.978973.0199883024.384402.3199988479.289677.1200098000.599214.62001108068.2109655.22002119095.7120332.72003135174.0135822.82004159586.8159878.32005183618.5184937.42006215883.9216314.42007266411.0265
3、810.32008315274.7314045.42009341401.5340902.82010403260.0401202.02011471,563.701978-2010年数据均来源于2011年国家统计年鉴其中2011年名义GDP数据来源于维基百科中国国内生产总值核算，于2012年5月2日17点35分最后修订名义GDP变动率Y为：Y0.11449570.1189010.07610330.08827240.12009360.20886680.25082850.13965590.17356740.24747520.12959640.09860360.16679380.23607080.312
4、38340.36406740.26133680.17078840.10953660.06874810.06249560.10635380.10523270.09737360.1287270.17711010.15673810.16966320.22881450.18146450.08552070.1768810.17537721978-2011年中国的实际GDP数据如下国内生产年 份总 值第一产业第二产业第三产业工 业建筑业按1970年价格计算19783548.2936.01766.21644.8121.4846.019793816.9993.51911.01787.2123.8912.419
5、804116.2978.72170.32013.4156.9967.219814807.41467.42254.72053.0201.71085.319825242.81636.52380.12171.5208.61226.219835811.81772.82626.82382.6244.21412.219846693.82001.13007.22736.5270.71685.519857595.22038.03565.63234.8330.81991.619868267.12105.73930.03546.7383.32231.419879224.72204.74468.24016.4451
6、.82551.8198810265.32260.85116.94629.0487.92887.6198910682.42330.35309.74863.0446.73042.4199011092.52501.15478.05026.0452.03113.4199120250.45183.58786.67845.0941.66280.3199223134.25427.110645.39505.71139.67061.8199326364.75682.312760.111415.41344.77922.3199429813.45909.615102.813574.21528.68801.01995
7、33070.56205.217198.415480.31718.19667.0199636380.46521.719280.517416.21864.310578.2199739762.76749.921300.919387.81913.111711.9199842877.46986.123198.921113.32085.612692.4199946144.67181.725086.322911.42174.913876.6200050035.27354.127451.725153.52298.215229.42001107449.715363.249401.543504.65896.942
8、685.02002117208.315808.754257.347842.26415.147142.32003128958.916203.961132.753942.57190.251622.22004141964.517224.867926.160151.37774.856813.62005158020.718125.876133.167114.79018.463761.82006208381.023541.099328.587175.112153.485511.62007237892.824422.4114290.6100170.114120.599179.72008260812.9257
9、35.9125579.7110117.415462.2109497.42009284844.826812.6138062.7119731.418331.3119969.42010324723.03 2011354597.55 注：1.更换基期的年份有两个不变价数据，一个按上一基期价格计算，一个按新基期价格计算。 2.有关不变价国内生产总值的解释见简要说明。1978年-2010年的数据来源于2011年国家统计年鉴，2011年数据来源于摘自维基百科中国国内生产总值核算，于2012年5月2日17点35分最后修订实际GDP变动率y为：y0.0757285380.078414420.167921870.
10、0905687070.1085297930.1517602120.1346619260.0884637670.1158326380.1128058370.0406320320.0383902490.825593870.1424070640.1396431470.1308068180.1092498030.1000852340.0929703380.0783334690.0761983570.0843127951.1474806790.090820680.1002537880.1008503990.1131003520.3186944540.141623950.0963466820.092141
11、9890.140.0921990-2011年中国货币供给量（M2）数据如下单位：亿元货币和准货币年 份(M2)货 币准货币(M1)流通中现金活期存款定期存款储蓄存款其他存款(M0)199015293.46950.72644.44306.38342.7199119349.98633.33177.85455.510716.6199225402.211731.543367395.213670.7199334879.816280.45864.710415.718599.41247.915203.52148199446923.520540.77288.613252.126382.81943.121518
12、.82920.9199560750.523987.17885.316101.836763.43324.229662.23777199676094.928514.8880219712.847580.15041.938520.84017.4199790995.334826.310177.624648.756169.16738.546279.83150.71998104498.538953.711204.227749.565544.98301.953407.53835.51999119897.945837.213455.532381.874060.69476.859621.8496220001346
13、10.353147.214652.738494.581463.111261.164332.45869.72001158301.959871.615688.844182.898430.314180.173762.410487.8200218500770881.81727853603.8114125.216433.886910.710780.72003221222.884118.61974664372.6137104.320940.4103617.712546.2200425410795969.721468.374501.4158137.225382.2119555.413199.72005298
14、755.7107278.824031.783247.09191476.933099.9914105117325.932006345603.6126035.127072.6298962.51219568.538723.1161587.319249.12007403442.2152560.130375.2122184.9250882.146932.51172534.231415.432008475166.6166217.134218.96131998.2308949.560103.06217885.430961.062009606225220001.538245.97181758.5386219.
15、182284.92260767.343166.852010725774.1266621.344628.17221993.2459152.7105858.7303302.249991.9320118516001990-2010年数据均来源于2011年国家统计年鉴，2011年的数据来源是数据来源：财新网2012年1月9日2011年货币供应量增速仅13.6% 新增贷款不足7.5万亿的报道，http:/ 份价格指数1978100.71980107.51985109.31990103.11991103.41992106.41993114.71994124.11995117.11996108.319971
16、02.8199899.2199998.62000100.42001100.7200299.22003101.22004103.92005101.82006101.52007104.82008105.9200999.32010103.32011104.11978-2010年数据均来自2011年国家统计年鉴，2011年数据来自东方财富网居民消费指数词条物价变动率p为：p0.0675270.016744-0.056720.002910.0290140.0780080.081953-0.05641-0.07515-0.05078-0.03502-0.006050.0182560.002988-0.01
17、490.0201610.02668-0.02021-0.002950.0325120.010496-0.062320.0402820.0077441978-2011年中国外汇储备数据如下年 份黄金储备外汇储备年 份黄金储备外汇储备(万盎司)(亿美元)(万盎司)(亿美元)197812801.6719951267735.97197912808.40199612671050.2919801280-12.96199712671398.901981126727.08199812671449.591982126769.86199912671546.751983126789.01200012671655.7
18、41984126782.20200116082121.651985126726.44200219292864.071986126720.72200319294032.511987126729.23200419296099.321988126733.72200519298188.721989126755.502006192910663.4019901267110.932007192915282.4919911267217.122008192919460.3019921267194.432009338923991.5219931267211.992010338928473.381994126751
19、6.20201131811.48其中，1978-2010年数据均来于2011年国家统计年鉴，2011年数据来源于来源：新华网2012年1月13日新闻：2011年我国外汇储备降至3.181万亿美元 中国外汇储备变动率r为：r0.425745834.029940120.42708263-2.54285710.33191785-3.08950620.036235611.579763660.067025850.274119670.07046388-0.07650830.2813908-0.67834550.34992577-0.21633890.407964890.410714290.51253686
20、0.153609310.342562780.645907470.302205960.998738740.433172350.957270350.27337234-0.10450440.23284430.090315280.186810171.435020520.11723582取1991年-2011年间中国的名义GDP变动率Y、实际GDP变动率y、货币供给变动率m、物价变动率p以及外汇储备变动率r进行多元回归，在eviews中回归过程如下：第一组：Dependent Variable: RMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/10/12 Time: 04:55Sample
21、: 1991 2011Included observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-0.1670380.376828-0.4432750.6628Y10.6030591.0139140.5947830.5594M1.9150641.1914061.6073980.1254R-squared0.128260 Mean dependent var0.341743Adjusted R-squared0.031401 S.D. dependent var0.334024S.E. of regression0.32873
22、8 Akaike info criterion0.744453Sum squared resid1.945238 Schwarz criterion0.893671Log likelihood-4.816760 F-statistic1.324185Durbin-Watson stat2.265672 Prob(F-statistic)0.290724第二组：Dependent Variable: RMethod: Least SquaresDate: 05/10/12 Time: 13:05Sample: 1991 2011Included observations: 21VariableC
23、oefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C0.0345110.2526310.1366040.8929Y20.0550940.4702370.1171610.9081P1.2221471.8539910.6591980.5186M1.3998581.0815341.2943270.2129R-squared0.134975 Mean dependent var0.341743Adjusted R-squared-0.017677 S.D. dependent var0.334024S.E. of regression0.336964 Akaike info c
24、riterion0.831959Sum squared resid1.930255 Schwarz criterion1.030916Log likelihood-4.735573 F-statistic0.884203Durbin-Watson stat2.106551 Prob(F-statistic)0.469027从eviews回归结果中，得到以下两个式子(1) r =0.603059Y+1.9150638m-0.167038(2) r =0.05509y+1.22214p+1.399858m+0.034511在名义GDP、货币供给与外汇储备的二元回归方程中，货币供给量系数接近2，而G
25、DP的系数仅为0.6，说明在我国，货币供给对外汇储备的影响远大于GDP, 货币供应具有一定的决定性作用。而常数项仅为0.167038，说明其他经济因素对外汇储备的影响很小。这与国际收支货币分析关于储备变动主要产生于货币供求不平衡的观点基本一致，说明国际收支失衡主要取决于货币供求。加入物价因素后，实际GDP、货币供给、物价和外汇储备之间都呈现出正相关关系，货币供给量增加不仅没有导致外汇储备下降，反而使国际收支出现顺差，而物价上升，外汇储备也上升。而且物价变动系数为1.22214，说明我国物价水平变动对外汇储备的影响是不容小看的。图一 中国的名义GDP、货币供给和外汇储备的变动情况图二 中国外汇储
26、备变动的预测值和实际值从图一、图二中可以看出，02年之前和04年之后，中国实际储备变动趋势和预测储备变动趋势极为相似，拟合程度非常之高，表明中国货币供给增长更大程度表现为产量、国民收入的增长而非通货膨胀。而且中国的货币供给始终低于名义GDP的增长，货币供给与名义GDP基本上等距离、同方向变动，而外汇储备变动却与名义GDP、货币供给变动距离相差极大，这表明在我国除货币供给量和GDP之外，物价等因素也对外汇储备的变动影响很大，综合之前的分析，货币供求是影响我国外汇储备的关键性因素，货币供给对外汇储备的影响力高于货币需求，在通过调节货币供求来平衡国际收支的同时还要注意稳定物价，中国可以做到以下四点来稳定物价：1.转稳健：管好货币稳物价；2.保供应：增加供给稳物价；3.畅流通：降低成本稳物价；4.强监管：规范市场稳物价。除了本文中分析的这几个因素，其他如国际贸易壁垒、贸易伙伴国，区域化发展，国际政治经济关系的变化，对我国的货币政策和外汇储备变动也会产生巨大的干扰。39113115 王玉蕾
