收藏 分享(赏)

公路铁路物流行业研究报告:中信证券-公路铁路物流行业2011年投资策略.pdf

上传人:精品资料 文档编号:11109210 上传时间:2020-02-07 格式:PDF 页数:37 大小:931.39KB
下载 相关 举报
公路铁路物流行业研究报告:中信证券-公路铁路物流行业2011年投资策略.pdf_第1页
第1页 / 共37页
公路铁路物流行业研究报告:中信证券-公路铁路物流行业2011年投资策略.pdf_第2页
第2页 / 共37页
公路铁路物流行业研究报告:中信证券-公路铁路物流行业2011年投资策略.pdf_第3页
第3页 / 共37页
公路铁路物流行业研究报告:中信证券-公路铁路物流行业2011年投资策略.pdf_第4页
第4页 / 共37页
公路铁路物流行业研究报告:中信证券-公路铁路物流行业2011年投资策略.pdf_第5页
第5页 / 共37页
点击查看更多>>
资源描述

1、1811706AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F2010 H 12 15 - 0J y g - 0J g C J C (= # C J C (= # 2011 H i C 1* +9| 9$ (= # S + G “ C 6uC 4JC 4iC?UA:4 S1010210060004 , D 2010 H 10 CCy vBEC!4G“46u. 2010-10-282.JCC 2010 H 9 CCy BEC!4vE7r . 2010-09-303.JCC 2010 H 8 CCy CBEPJCvEE7 . 2010-08-284.CJC(=# 2010 H HiC1*+9CJCG0G“(=#. 2

2、010-07-02CJC(=# 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F, )i C 6. H S +iC 8 C C ,X 6u Nl $ 9 C AHNXtG1GS6u 9 E vBE4G0rKSiC?4 13iC1*+9G“KC“9NX,X46u 16 J C P J , ,X 4 , 5 17J5a)NGkY 17/JCr JFF6u=aC) 20 E BEG0rKSvErEt 21iCA“B M-Y NE6,X 23 ! EW 24CS + 24JCS + 25h i C 1* +9 G H S + i C Ax(=# !7bQ,X )S +Y6uFE8CQ,X )FJ2

3、O _,X(=# ,5Jh,X 2011 H iC H,X(=#u / / T ?= + % “ NN ?= +u) U (= # buE=4 ,X 3 ErKS,X S +K,XiC,X 4(=# )(=#E,X _ | 6u ,b M= H 1*J?4rKSC“9NX3*n,XiC AG“ YK,ro,X(=# ES +,XHoG C S + G “ K C “ 9 NX ,X 4 6u C AHPEL HNXtG1GS6u“38 k,4AHPEC C AxNX/- , C AH#%B,X9+bxiL =aCL“rtPEL H!9tK GNl$,X6uKiC S +b“!C 2011 H

4、PE 4z 14 PB 4z 1.8 ,K AxC6u48CQKNl$,X 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 2 (= # H 8R i C ) E 9 E ) E F Y4#“ )(=# ,Xv?L“%(=# E ) ,! ,X(=# )7 L !6L !0$L !E )L !PE )L ! 1 1 L! 6 19491965 !4#“6/ #E=#EFK,40Z|E |1P9,X(=#(=#kZ ),! _,X(=#F E!6,XVJ(=C F (=#u,X6L ! 1 2 L! 0 $ 19661976 4#“ )FA. #(=# 3b0$(

5、 (=#FA. # 1 3 L! E ) 19771991 M= Lc- Y #E C ,X= (=# E )?UEEg L1 1E# LEE 1 4 L! P E ) 19917 *E/C9CqC*#E(=# G? EEgNZ EETA)(=#uVB6(EG!EQC |A|E1EE ) ) _,X(=#u !7b1 L !,XPE ) EL !K8CQ .A5%4/3,X _(=#HuNZ ,X(=#FM? ),XNZo5 1 20012009 H/(=#Nq0204060801001202001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%5%10%1

6、5%20%25%30%35%/(=#Nq !rE Cm9$d (=#GC6( A -0JF,b E 5? (=#bCK!9 )L !J ),X?U(MUCJC(=# 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 3 Oj / (= # # | (= # G KbL!“EEg1uC *CK7GG?U,X0* 4 19912009 H /(=#C *X %19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200951.033.215.853.330.216.652.130.916.552.731.416.552.932.315

7、.355.031.213.856.429.813.855.131.413.554.632.213.154.333.212.552.634.712.755.332.811.90102030405060708090100EEgC * 1uC * 1u)C *Cm9$d (=#GC6( A -0JF 5 19912007 NM(=#C * 4 GDP !_ %10.310.610.1 9.9 10.010.4 10.6 10.210.0 10.09.510.06.76.0 6.0 5.9 6.1 5.95.65.8 5.96.1 6.3 6.03.2 3.3 3.2 3.12.92.6 2.6 2.

8、52.4 2.3 2.32.120.219.919.418.8 18.9 18.9 18.818.518.3 18.4 18.1 18.11998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820090246810121416182022EEgC * 1uC *1u)C * /(=#C *Cm9$d 4AuA -0JF 6 19912007 H/(=#C *X %62.0%62.6%64.7%64.4%66.9%66.0%65.1%64.6%65.8%67.0%65.9%66.7%67.5%68.3%63.7%63.6%62.0%33.6%32.8%30.9%

9、31.2%28.7%29.6%30.3%30.9%29.7%28.4%29.5%28.9%28.3%27.6%32.1%32.4%33.9%4.4% 4.5%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.6%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.4%4.2%4.0%4.3%4.0%4.1%4.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007EEgC * 1uC * 1u)C *Cm9$d (=#GC6( A -0JF 7 19

10、912007 NM(=#C * 4 GDP !_ %6.56.2 6.36.06.36.1 6.05.8 5.8 5.85.6 5.6 5.65.85.35.5 5.53.53.33.0 2.92.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.62.5 2.5 2.42.3 2.32.7 2.83.00.5 0.50.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.410.59.99.89.39.59.3 9.39.08.8 8.78.5 8.48.28.5 8.48.78.90246810121991 1992 1993 1994 1995

11、1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007EEgC * 1uC * 1u)C * C *Cm9$d 4AuA -0JFCJC(=# 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 5 8 19912007 H5b /(=#C *X %55.9%59.0%60.0%59.0%57.1%58.3%59.2%59.8%60.1%59.0%63.0%63.5%64.4%63.4%62.6%61.9%40.3%37.3%36.2%37.2%39.1%37.8%36.9%36.3%36.1%37.1

12、%33.1%32.7%31.8%32.8%33.5%34.2%3.8% 3.8%3.8%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006EEgC * 1uC * 1u)C *Cm9$d (=#GC6( A -0JF 9 19912007 5b NM(=#C *(=# 4 GDP !_ %5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9

13、6.0 6.06.16.0 6.0 6.0 6.05.6 5.5 5.65.96.1 6.24.33.7 3.6 3.74.13.9 3.83.7 3.6 3.83.22.92.72.93.23.43.50.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.40.3 0.3 0.30.4 0.4 0.410.610.0 9.9 10.110.410.2 10.210.19.910.29.58.88.68.89.59.910.10246810121991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2

14、003 2004 2005 2006 2007EEgC * 1uC * 1u)C * C *Cm9$d 4AuA -0JF(= # ) E # 4 p ,X P z G ? p (= # ) P z G ? pGFKV 4C AuxEF4C F13 ?zG“- (=#,X )J/U -0JE(=# ),XG1* 2010 H u L6 | (= # 0 1 10 H ? K (=#A EE|FJL1 J)NNEE+k0N$1 10 (=#,X h, ,XKNl 1*A1(=#9H?.!8 uL6)#q uL6 uAuAJ sEE(=#AHH? p E !9 Ax A (= # ) G ?U 4

15、 4 o | E (= # ? A ,!# “#KSE1 pUG? (=# )J-0J n (=# ),X? GE1* ? , n ! _(=# 4 (=#G!E 8Vn!_U E,X1*EE/G0 ),XNM G C5B(=#AA,XENMr/EE YL,XE _(=#A4G/! A(=#AAtElJ/! 1T _(=#L YFCA6uEAG4JC1 ,XuM/c!L8,G)8V/GCJC(=# 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 6AxE (=# $ A (=# ?U |t(=#|6u/T%“NNU(=# ohJ1u)nENP LKS“3iC 2

16、O , ) k G “4EAx(=# !7bQ,X )Kc?4#“L“,X| 1*pQ,X| E!2O _,X(=# , Oj E !9 + 4 (= # ) (= # E ,X 7 ! _ VEL |(=C J(=# F11h,X |6uE ) J H ,X (= # u Lc-(=# ,X?8?EEgC *1uC *E!9 _45,XJC *LtEWP,X(=#)8VkKSC,X ) E ,XE/,X#E oLtu,X ,Ax %“NN/TH S + i C S + 2010 H 7 34 , )6uM6/T%“NN 52% 9%,X#|bS +!ECC6,|6unE H,XL95,HNX

17、Au 2011 H4bE=,X/T%“NNrKS45|6uU(=#1 Ku=NX! 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 9i C A S + i C G #-“3 Cm9$dA -0JFP E L L G 5 5 4 C 4 d PEC49)(PEL G554C1 23| C C )AH,X!9t , P E L D C , 9 L Gc3C! V 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 12 17F,5PEC4Cn)! /G 0.550.50.70.440.350.400.10.20.30.40.50.60.

18、70.8$*!:9PE Fo PE L)?S $PEC ) Cm9$d,xE Y1A -0JFH)x i L =a C L “ | | H !9 P E C A ? c C G L “ 7 2009 Hi PECEE:G /E 6.51 G 7 2020 H ,PEC? AuG /E 15.4 G C 10 G Au,X 1.5 !G LiC 6000 8000 9Au1kL8Z PECLa 3.5 G ,7PEE 5.5 G NXAuLi9CG 3 5 2011 2020 HG !HL?UiC 3000 5000 6u=aC5?U,XxiL BC “9 AxJ,GBC=aC,X 6!V.PE

19、6ub 09 HSA 23 HY “98CCCJC(=# 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 13K G Nl $ ,X 6u ;H i C 4EAxKH GNX,X 2011 HCS +G1GSiC,XB,X0 E/NX,X zEiC.PE9r6uEPE #C72xPE1 E v B E 4 G 0 r KS i C ? 4 v B E G 0 r KS a Z PB E 5 Z P110 rvEGvE 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 14 20 2010 HCzvEG1234567891011122

20、009H 2010H2009H !rKS % 2010H !rKS %051015202530-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Cm9$d “EDBA -0JF 21 2010 HCzvC 9V 2010 H 1 10 C 9 !rKS 16.2% 10 C 9 !rKS 16.5%)!DB, E:#GE C 9)!rKS 3.8% 4.8%! 10 ?UC E:#GE C 9 4rKS9r.#PE,jE1E C 9 !rKS 20% J9r6uE C 9E 36.8%rKS v- 22 1M08 10M10 ?UPE E:#G)!EZ01020304050607

21、01M083M085M087M089M0811M081M093M095M097M099M0911M091M103M105M107M109M10EPE sPE U“PE,jEPE C72xPE .PE)iC # 2xPE#PECm9$d A -0JF 23 1M08 10M10 ?UPEC z 9)!0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.51M083M085M087M089M0811M081M093M095M097M099M0911M091M103M105M107M109M10EPE sPE U“PE,jEPE C72xPE .PE)iC # 2xPE#PECm9$d A -

22、0JF 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 15 NM , 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122009EZ / 70,823 60,226 58,509 64,165 55,464 58,386 61,122 64,227 68,715 71,943 62,995 63,9982010EZ / 66,383 92,263 71,739 76,107 72,965 72,665 73,902 74,966 79,649 82,492 ,jEPE!rE % -6.27% 53.19% 22.61% 18.61% 31.55% 24.46

23、% 20.91% 16.72% 15.91% 14.66% 2009EZ / 78,679 63,084 63,546 69,583 64,707 59,576 63,298 69,776 65,534 65,408 63,144 68,9502010EZ / 69,646 97,598 72,850 76,104 72,487 71,967 73,731 80,271 75,308 83,191 C72xPE!rE % -11.48% 54.71% 14.64% 9.37% 12.02% 20.80% 16.48% 15.04% 14.91% 27.19% 2009EZ / 11,949 1

24、0,484 9,225 9,902 9,492 9,155 10,097 10,897 11,491 11,821 10,652 10,7372010EZ / 11,790 12,915 11,790 12,346 11,678 10,643 11,134 12,181 12,336 13,459 .PE!rE % -1.33% 23.19% 27.80% 24.68% 23.03% 16.25% 10.27% 11.78% 7.35% 13.86% 2009EZ / 89,723 86,268 61,966 64,864 63,926 63,636 66,792 71,641 74,567

25、- - -2010EZ / - - - 127,335 110,538 121,738 123,375 124,866 128,328 129,352 - -)iC!rE % - - 96.31% 72.92% 91.30% 84.71% 74.29% 72.10% #DIV/0! 2009EZ / 79,134 83,921 82,134 88,993 91,738 86,511 90,333 91,610 97,147 99,745 93,304 93,1572010EZ / 102,790 102,592 106,822 108,996 108,955 105,659 107,770 1

26、11,004 110,254 123,704 - -#PE!rE % 29.89% 22.25% 30.06% 22.48% 18.77% 22.13% 19.30% 21.17% 13.49% 24.02% 2009EZ / 449,055 441,855 430,717 458,891 429,737 426,337 446,200 455,112 453,467 473,868 14,762 15,7302010EZ / 257,903 298,227 268,354 274,828 253,779 247,685 263,593 274,018 270,030 275,371 2xPE

27、!rE % -42.57% -32.51% -37.70% -40.11% -40.95% -41.90% -40.92% -39.79% -40.45% -41.89% 2009EZ / 247,805 280,091 301,363 317,581 306,799 318,944 338,382 349,517 358,288 332,329 339,155 352,1872010EZ / 356,547 300,154 365,004 378,210 370,193 373,928 399,372 413,728 408,679 436,399 #PE!rE % 43.88% 7.16%

28、 21.12% 19.09% 20.66% 17.24% 18.02% 18.37% 14.06% 31.32% Cm9$d A -0JFNX Au 2010 H C v B E G ! r KS 10 15%!7V1*+9NXAuLc- Y4#“0 2010 H HCEG4rKSvBEEg Z PAx 2011 HCvBEEgrKS4G0?U bV“# 300 ExEEEg E b| 2010 H5 2011 H,X,) )C K , Q G ,X NX C AHPEL HNXtK GNl$,X6uKiCAxC6u48CQKNl$,X 2011 HiC1*+9AuKA!7 ,X!B5!F 2010 H 12 15 17 G 1.4% 6%,X)Au1k8V,BuC *4z 210 NXAu94z 10%,XBuC *b C“9 -YJCBGJS 4-*CCrKS / J C r , G 6 r G 1 2010 H 10 19 /JC /JC6uL$ r A 6u6u : rLCGCYE 165 8.73 /6uEJFF,G6rG+9rC,X1!9E!9Z6u=aC,X)6u =a C ) =a C G ,X A B4#“y 2009.7.1yFJFF 6JC#KJC#“ +JC,XFC

展开阅读全文
相关资源
猜你喜欢
相关搜索
资源标签

当前位置:首页 > 企业管理 > 管理学资料

本站链接:文库   一言   我酷   合作


客服QQ:2549714901微博号:道客多多官方知乎号:道客多多

经营许可证编号: 粤ICP备2021046453号世界地图

道客多多©版权所有2020-2025营业执照举报