1、52,48,44,40,36,32,1,2,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingBuyAustralasiaAustralia,CompanyBHP Billiton Ltd,Date23 January 2013Results,M&M - DiversifiedResources,Reuters,Bloomberg,Exchange Ticker,Price at 23 Jan 2013Price target - 12mth52 week range (AUD),37.0642.6038.21 - 30.18,BHP.AX,BHP AU,ASX,BHP,
2、ALL ORDINARIES,4,816,2Q13 - running ahead of guidance,Paul YoungResearch Analyst,Kaan PekerResearch Analyst,Exceeding production targetsBHPB increased its Cu Eq production 2% to 2.4Mt in the December Q. Theresult was above our +0.7% increase due to stronger performances from thePilbara, Escondida an
3、d the US Onshore business. Iron ore and met coal saleswere c. 10% above forecasts. Importantly, FY13-14 production guidance of+10% Cu Eq growth appears achievable and may even be exceeded in ourview considering that the Pilbara expansion to 220Mtpa appears 3 monthsearly and grades at Escondida shoul
4、d remain above 1.3% Cu. Spending on thePermian and Eagle Ford also appears to have increased slightly. Our FY13earnings have increased c. 2%. BUY on valuationBig assets bouncing back and growingMost key assets performed strongly during the quarter (see Figure 1) withstrong production from Escondida,
5、 the Pilbara, the GoM and the US Onshorebusiness. Production guidance for the three key commodities has beenmaintained at; 240Mmboe of petroleum (98Mmboe US Onshore, 142Mmboeconventional), 183Mt of iron ore (+5% YoY) from the Pilbara and a 20%increase in copper from Escondida. All appear achievable
6、and we believe thePilbara and Escondida could beat guidance. Port infrastructure in the Pilbara isnow rated for 220Mtpa post the tie-in of car dumper no. 5 at Finucane island.The Jimblebar mine which will increase production to 220Mtpa from 1H CY14,(+61) 2 8258-2587paul-Rob CliffordResearch Analyst(
7、+44) 20 754-Grant SporreResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Price/price relative,(+61) 2 8258-,onwards appears at least 3 months early with the project already 66%complete. The US Onshore business increased volumes by 2% to 24.9Mmboedespite shifting rigs out of the dry fields into the liquid rich Eagle For
8、d andPermian fields. A total of US$2.1bn was spent drilling on shale, a run-rateabove the FY13 budget of US$4bn, indicating to us that rig count may have,281/11 7/11 1/12BHP Billiton LtdALL ORDINARIES (Rebased)Performance (%) 1m,7/123m,12m,increased. The only material downward revisions to our produ
9、ction numbershave been factoring in maintenance at Atlantis and Mad Dog in the GoM in 2H,AbsoluteALL ORDINARIES,1.03.5,6.55.4,-0.512.3,and a faster decline at Pyrenees in WA.,Valuation and risks,Stock data,Our valuation has increased by 0.5% to A$42.63/sh. Our revised price target isset broadly in-l
10、ine with our NPV which assumes a nominal WACC of 8.9%. Keydownside risks include lower commodity prices than we had forecast or higherlocal currency exchange rates. Further downside risks include the ability tocontinue to deliver on planned growth at reasonable costsForecasts And Ratios,Market cap (
11、AUDm)Market cap (USDm)Shares outstanding (m)Daily volume (USDm)Free float,197,200208,3815,321.1358.14100.00,Year End Jun 30Net Profit (USDm)EPS (USD)OLD EPS (USD)% ChangePER (x)EV/EBITDA (x),2011A21,6844.064.060.0%10.56.8,2012A17,1503.213.200.2%11.76.6,2013E13,9092.602.561.6%15.17.8,2014E16,5043.093
12、.09-0.2%12.76.7,2015E17,9993.373.40-1.1%11.66.3,Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company dataPre-exceptionals/extraordinariesMultiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B_Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyDeutsche Bank do
13、es and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
14、 DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,40,36,36,23 January 2013M&M - Diversified ResourcesBHP Billiton Ltd,Model updated:23 January 2013,Fiscal year end 30-Jun,2010,2011,2012,2013E,2014E,2015E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,AustralasiaAustraliaM
15、&M - Diversified ResourcesBHP Billiton Ltd,DB EPS (USD)Reported EPS (USD)DPS (USD)BVPS (USD)Valuation MetricsPrice/Sales (x),2.232.270.878.723.7,4.064.421.0110.673.1,3.212.891.1212.382.8,2.602.601.1514.753.0,3.093.091.1916.012.7,3.373.371.2317.772.6,Reuters: BHP.AXBuyPrice (23 Jan 13)Target Price52
16、Week rangeMarket Cap (m),Bloomberg: BHP AUAUD 37.06AUD 42.60AUD 30.18 - 38.21AUDm 197,200,P/E (DB) (x)P/E (Reported) (x)P/BV (x)FCF yield (%)Dividend yield (%)EV/SalesEV/EBITDAEV/EBIT,15.615.33.84.52.53.88.110.1,10.59.64.18.92.43.26.88.0,11.713.02.64.13.03.06.68.2,15.115.12.72.52.93.37.810.2,12.712.
17、72.43.33.03.06.78.7,11.611.62.23.73.12.96.38.0,USDm 208,381,Income Statement (USDm),Company ProfileBHP Billiton Limited is an international resourcescompany. The companys principal business lines aremineral and petroleum production, including coal (thermaland coking), iron ore, aluminium, manganese,
18、 nickel,copper concentrate and cathode, diamonds, and oil & gas(conventional and unconventional, LNG).Price Performance524844,SalesEBITDAEBITPre-tax profitNet incomeCash Flow (USDm)Cash flow from operationsNet CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc/(dec) in borrowingsOth
19、er investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital,52,79824,51319,71919,57212,72217,920-9,1918,72912-4,895-588-3021,5982,115,71,73934,12329,01031,25523,64831,061-11,06719,994-9,828-5,144-799-5,355-2,402-461,72,22632,65026,21323,05515,45026,344-18,2268,118-62-5,9339,007-13,981-4,
20、78576,69,77330,10722,89421,93013,90922,505-17,2895,2160-6,1184,0001,6331,647-918,77,70835,22527,08826,01616,50423,702-16,9216,7810-6,3262,200-1,6151,1303,148,81,15537,61429,58828,41217,99926,835-19,0237,8120-6,5212,50002,3051,357,Balance Sheet (USDm),3228Jan 11Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11Jan 12Apr 12 Jul 12
21、 Oct 12,Cash and cash equivalentsProperty, plant & equipmentGoodwill,12,45655,576414,10,08468,468544,4,78195,2473,078,8,061109,0983,305,7,576119,4873,590,9,881130,4843,862,BHP Billiton LtdMargin Trends484440,ALL ORDINARIES (Rebased),Other assetsTotal assetsDebtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesTotal
22、 shareholders equityNet debt,20,40688,85215,76423,75939,52349,3293,308,23,795102,89115,90729,22945,13657,7555,823,26,167129,27328,33033,85862,18867,08523,549,25,779146,24432,33034,15966,48979,75424,269,27,759158,41234,53037,33771,86786,54626,954,28,697172,92337,03039,90776,93795,98627,149,Key Compan
23、y Metrics,32,10,11,12,13E,14E,15E,Sales growth (%)DB EPS growth (%),5.216.4,35.982.0,0.7-20.9,-3.4-18.9,11.418.7,4.49.1,EBITDA MarginGrowth & Profitability403020,EBIT Margin,504030,Payout ratio (%)EBITDA Margin (%)EBIT Margin (%)ROE (%)Net debt/equity (%)Net interest cover (x),38.146.437.328.26.743.
24、0,22.747.640.441.210.151.7,38.645.236.328.035.135.9,44.043.132.819.330.423.7,38.445.334.920.231.125.3,36.246.336.520.028.325.2,10,20,0,10,DuPont Analysis,-10,0,EBIT margin (%),37.3,40.4,36.3,32.8,34.9,36.5,10,11,12,13E,14E,15E,x Asset turnover (x),0.6,0.7,0.6,0.5,0.5,0.5,x Financial cost ratio (x),1
25、.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,Solvency40302010,Sales growth (LHS),ROE (RHS),605040302010,x Tax and other effects (x)= ROA (post tax) (%)x Financial leverage (x)= ROE (%)annual growth (%)x NTA/share (avg) (x)= Reported EPSannual growth (%),0.715.21.928.891.57.92.27116.6,0.824.71.844.956.29.84.4294.5,0.613.3
26、1.925.2-43.911.52.89-34.7,0.610.11.919.3-23.513.52.60-10.0,0.610.81.920.24.715.33.0918.7,0.610.91.820.0-0.716.83.379.1,0,0,Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates,10,11,12,13E,14E,15E,Net debt/equity (LHS)Paul Young+61 2 8258-2587Page 2,Net interest cover (RHS)paul-,Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney,),)
27、,),Petroleum -,Conventional,17%,6%,16%,),9%,-,-,-,Stainless Steel,2%,2% Materials,0%,0%,-,-,-,0%,23 January 2013M&M - Diversified ResourcesBHP Billiton LtdBHP BILLITON OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL SUMMARY DATA,FX/COMMODITIES (Nominal)AUDUSDGold (US$/oz)Oil - WT I (US$/bbl)Copper (US$/lb)Aluminium (US$/
28、lb)Nickel (US$/lb)Iron ore - lump (US$/t) - FOBIron ore - fines (US$/t) - FOBIron ore - fines (US$/t) - CIFCoking coal (US$/t)Steaming coal (US$/t)US natural gas (US$/mmBtu)Potash (US$/t),FY 11A0.991,373903.941.0810.91691541622511064.20433,FY 12A1.031,672953.700.998.81521401482611263.10438,FY 13F1.0
29、41,733923.670.947.81261141221841113.47475,FY 14F1.021,9311013.490.977.9119107115185994.01500,FY 15F0.991,8381033.351.007.51171051131831044.39450,FY 16F0.951,7031053.221.027.4111991071761004.75450,FY 17F0.901,5091083.081.057.61039199169974.87450,FY 18F0.851,3161112.941.087.8968492161924.99461,FY 19F0
30、.811,1891133.211.329.5978391174955.12473,FY 20F0.801,2181163.291.359.71008694178975.24485,NPV (HD13)AluminiumBase MetalsPotashEnergy CoalIron oreManganeseMet CoalPetroleum - Shale gasPetroleum - ConventionalStainless Steel MaterialsGroup & UnallocatedInvestments and otherLess Net debt,US$M4836339577
31、58166017928323291241824686370363774-66532000-27293,US$/sh0.916.381.421.2414.900.442.334.646.960.71-1.250.38-5.13,AU$/sh1.097.691.721.4917.950.532.815.598.390.85-1.510.45-4.43,TOTAL,180,554,33.93,42.63,K EY FINANCIAL METRICS,Underlying Earnings (US$M),21,684,17,150,13,909,16,504,17,999,18,184,17,649,
32、18,022,20,603,20,789,WACC (nomin al),8.9%,Shar es,5,321.1M,Operating Cash Flow (US$M)Capex (incl. exploration) and divestments (US$M)Dividend (US$M)Acquisitions (US$M)Free Cash Flow (US$M) - before debt & equityNet Debt (US$M)Gearing (ND/E - %ROE (%)ROA (%EPS (USc)EPS Change (%),31,061(12,400)(5,144
33、)(5,045)8,4725,82310%41%34%40678%,26,344(20,741)(5,933)(12,897)(13,227)23,54935%28%24%321-21%,22,505(18,739)(6,118)-(2,353)24,26930%19%18%260-19%,23,702(18,447)(6,326)-(1,070)26,95431%20%19%30919%,26,835(20,510)(6,521)-(195)27,14928%20%19%3379%,28,267(20,122)(6,715)-1,43025,71924%18%18%3401%,29,261(
34、18,700)(6,917)-3,64422,07519%16%17%330-3%,30,286(17,993)(7,117)-5,17716,89813%15%16%3372%,32,071(15,836)(7,319)-8,9167,9826%16%18%38514%,34,119(14,693)(7,538)-11,888(3,906)-3%15%18%3891%,EPS CAGR (% - off FY 13 earnings,19%,14%,9%,6%,5%,7%,6%,DPS (USc)Payout ratio (%),10125%,11235%,11544%,11939%,123
35、36%,12637%,13039%,13440%,13836%,14237%,Valuation (HJ2013),PRODUCTIONCopper (kt)Iron ore (Mt) - AttributableIron ore (Mt) - Pilbara (100%)Petroleum (Mmboe) - US OnshorePetroleum (% Liquids) - US OnshorePetroleum (Mmboe) - ConventionalPetroleum (Mmboe) - T otalCoal - Hard coking (Mt) - AttributableCoa
36、l - Hard coking (Mt) - Qld (100%)Coal - T hermal (Mt)Aluminium (kt)Nickel (kt)Manganese ore (kt)Potash (Mt)Copper Eq Produ ction (Mt),1,139134144612%1531593346701,2461534,256-8.9,1,0941591748613%1372223344711,1531584,759-9.9,1,21316718310019%1422423550761,1911415,098-10.4,1,35119621614027%1502914058
37、771,2601665,081-11.7,1,41121123116135%1423034059781,2381664,770-12.1,1,40022724919236%1333264263791,2621664,770-12.5,1,37223726022334%1263494364801,2621664,7701.013.0,1,47524426924634%1273724364811,2751664,7702.013.5,1,49024426926532%1283934364811,2811664,7703.013.8,1,49024426927130%1273984364811,28
38、11664,7704.013.9,Petroleum -Shale gas12%Met CoalManganese1%Iron ore37%,Stainless SteelMaterials2%Aluminium2%Base MetalsPotash4%Energy Coal3%,Copper Eq CAGR (%,5.9%,8.8%,7.1%,6.2%,5.6%,5.4%,5.0%,4.4%,Rev enue split (2013F),REVENUE (US$M)Petroleum - Shale gasPetroleum - Conventional,10710,630,2,16910,
39、768,2,88911,384,4,78413,327,6,47413,138,7,71713,468,8,54213,804,9,14715,123,9,90015,827,9,93716,380,Iron ore28%,Petroleum - T otalAluminiumBase MetalsIron oreMet CoalManganese,10,7375,22114,15220,4127,5732,423,12,9374,76611,59622,6017,5762,152,14,2735,04313,77119,7775,9562,327,18,1105,45614,39521,32
40、56,7702,609,19,6125,54714,51722,8666,7612,372,21,1855,73613,94623,2256,8562,345,22,3465,92712,99422,6086,7142,324,24,2705,87712,93221,5936,4212,413,25,7277,01013,88321,8246,9322,509,26,3187,56713,65422,3627,1042,571,Base Metals20%Aluminium,Met CoalDiamonds,RBM, Potash0%Manganese3%,Diamonds, RBM, Potash,1,517,1,326,208,450,923,1,418,1,938,7%,Energy coal,Energy coal,5,507,6,022,5,845,5,842,6,376,6,295,6,177,5,943,6,137,6,252,9%,Stainless Steel MaterialsGroup & Unallocated and IntersegmentTotal,
