1、Hold,Buy,Hold,Hold,Hold,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsIntegrated Oil,IndustryUS Integrateds,Date6 November 2012Forecast ChangePaul SankeyDavid T. Clark, CFA,Marathon goes ahead as planned,Research Analyst(+1) 212 250-6137,Research Analyst(+1) 212 250-8163, da
2、vid-,Strongly re-iterate under-weight oil on Sandy demand destruction.There was one Marathon running in New York this week, after FrankenstormSandy shut down lower Manhattan, including the majority of Deutsche Banksoffice capacity at 60 Wall Street, and cyclone Nilam forced our Chennai-basedassociat
3、e Dharaneendra Pothuru to evacuate Tuesday. In the week our BUY-rated Chevron and Oxy disappointed, and HOLD-rated Hess and ConocoPhillipsdid well, finally Marathon Oil delivered in line with our hopes. BUY. Murphyfeels like a firework that went off sooner than expected. HOLD. ExxonMobilwas disappoi
4、nting in line with our recommendation stance & persists inpursuing the wrong dividend strategy. HOLD.Hurricanes and CyclonesOur stance has been under-weight oil since Labor Day, and we cut fromoverweight to neutral refining 22nd October. In that respect we feel correctlypositioned, as it is absolute
5、ly clear to us that Sandy will prove to be a majornegative. The North East represents 35% of US gasoline demand, 13% ofglobal demand. Of course there is a short term spike in prices on outages, butafter mostly panic-based gasoline shortages have squeezed markets, the nexteffect will be a massive neg
6、ative effect as storm-shocked consumers stay,Silvio Micheloto, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Winnie NipResearch Associate(+1) 212 250-Companies FeaturedExxonMobil (XOM.N),USD91.61Chevron (CVX.N),USD110.36Hess Corporation (HES.N),USD55.52Marathon Oil (MRO.N),USD31.21Murphy Oil (MUR.N),USD60.71Sunco
7、r Energy (SU.TO),CAD34.59,home and conserve fuel; at the same time generator-led power generationdemand for oil we guesstimate 100kb/d of gasoline, a 2% boost to PADD1demand will fall back hard as power is restored. Adding to bearish impacts,gasoline and diesel specifications and transport limitatio
8、ns (Jones Act) havebeen lifted. We are particularly concerned for refining stocks, which we willreview later this week. Having said that, we are already relatively negative oilstocks, and see todays mini-rally in oil prices as head-fake election move thatpre-ambles downside over the coming weeks.MRO
9、 3Q12: Solid volume growthMRO reported clean 3Q12 EPS of 64c, beating our 60c estimate (Street 65c).Bottom line performance was slightly disappointing, as the volume story wasall good. It got even better on the results call as the company, which has beenradio silent on operational performance since
10、August, beat volumes, upgradedthe outlook, and then underlined the strength of performance, particularly inthe core driver Eagle Ford, with a 50 page presentation. Eagle Ford showed60kboe/d current production (41kboe/d in Q3) summary of EPS changes on p.2We value the integrated oils based on top-dow
11、n P/E and bottom-up NAVmethodologies. Key industry wide risk is oil & product demand and safetyperformance._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg a
12、nd other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investo
13、rs should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,6 November 2012Integrated OilUS IntegratedsQ3 2012Summary of EPS ChangesWith power outages and other logistical difficulti
14、es caused by Hurricane Sandy, webundle this past weeks results into one note and summarize our EPS changes below.Figure 1: EPS Comparison DB new vs DB old,D B e sti m ate s (N e w ),DB e sti m ate s (Ol d),DB (N e w ) v s DB (Ol d),4 Q1 2 E,1 Q1 3 E,2012E,2013E,4 Q1 2 E,1 Q1 3 E,2012E,2013E,4 Q1 2 E
15、,1 Q1 3 E,2012E,2013E,Exx on Mobi lCh e v ronH e ssMu rph yMarath on Oi lSu n cor,2.103.171.361.560.750.83,2.103.371.481.540.820.76,7.9012.286.035.742.653.44,8.6813.786.466.193.773.59,2.133.371.341.550.770.85,2.123.391.561.730.810.82,7.8913.195.755.772.633.27,8.7813.746.407.603.723.84,-1%-6%1%1%-2%-
16、3%,-1%0%-5%-11%2%-6%,0%-7%5%-1%1%5%,-1%0%1%-19%1%-7%,Av e rage,-2%,-4%,1%,-4%,Source: Deutsche BankFigure 2: EPS Comparison DB new vs Street,D B e sti m ate s (N e w ),Stre e t,DB (N e w ) v s DB (Ol d),4 Q1 2 E,1 Q1 3 E,2012E,2013E,4 Q1 2 E,1 Q1 3 E,2012E,2013E,4 Q1 2 E,1 Q1 3 E,2012E,2013E,Exx on
17、Mobi lCh e v ronH e ssMu rph yMarath on Oi lSu n cor,2.103.171.361.560.750.83,2.103.371.481.540.820.76,7.9012.286.035.742.653.44,8.6813.786.466.193.773.59,2.053.051.471.440.760.83,2.053.041.621.390.830.80,7.9612.496.035.632.653.29,8.1312.336.665.723.293.36,2%4%-8%8%-1%0%,2%11%-9%11%-1%-5%,-1%-2%0%2%
18、0%4%,7%12%-3%8%15%7%,Av e rage,1%,2%,1%,8%,Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP,Page 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Q102,Q302,Q103,Q303,Q104,Q304,Q105,Q305,Q106,Q306,Q107,Q307,Q108,Q308,Q109,Q309,Q110,Q310,Q111,Q311,Q112,Q312,6 November 2012Integrated OilUS IntegratedsFigure 3: Upstream Net
19、Income per Barrel Produced QoQ change,$2.0$1.0$0.0,10%5%0%,-$1.0,CVX,HES,XOM,SU,WTI,MUR Brent,OXY,MRO,COP,-5%,-$2.0-$3.0,-10%-15%,-$4.0,2Q12-3Q12 $/boe change (LHS),2Q12-3Q12 % change (RHS),-20%,Source: Deutsche Bank, Company dataMarathon and COP had the best positive dynamic in terms of per barrel
20、profitability,although Marathon continues to bounce along the bottom of the range.Figure 4: Upstream Net Income per Barrel Produced,$60$50$40$30$20$10$0-$10,$140$120$100$80$60$40$20$0,High Low Range,ExxonMobil,Chevron,Hess,Murphy,Marathon,Suncor,WTI (RHS),Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data,Deutsche
21、 Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,Q102,Q302,Q103,Q303,Q104,Q304,Q105,Q305,Q106,Q306,Q107,Q307,Q108,Q308,Q109,Q309,Q110,Q310,Q111,Q311,Q112,Q312,6 November 2012Integrated OilUS IntegratedsFigure 5: Downstream Net Income per Barrel Refined$/bbl$21$18$15$12$9$6$3$0-$3-$6-$9,High-low range,ExxonMobil,Chevron
22、,Hess,Murphy,Suncor,Source: Deutsche Bank, Company dataSuncor screens as the best refiner in North America, with this sector becomingincreasingly irrelevant to overall investment cases.We met ConocoPhillips management in New York today, Tuesday 6th November, andare gaining confidence in the relative
23、ly positive outlook for the stock which ultimately isfollowing our preferred strategy route of working first towards dividend payment,second towards sustainably achieving that either through organic or acquisition growthat a reasonable price, or, more likely given current markets, with dispositions
24、if needed.We believe the big oils need to exploit the arbitrage between their stock prices andasset markets, as long as the arbitrage persists. Arguably ConocoPhillips alone trulyunderstands this, and Oxy may well have to next. Murphy has been forced tounderstand it, and has acted quickly.We will be
25、 on the road with Marathon and Oxy management over the next few weeks,and hope to also see Hess, with a view to writing a focus review and strategy note oneach company, in lieu of this disrupted results season. Stay tuned.,Page 4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,3,5,2,4,6 November 2012Integrated OilUS
26、IntegratedsEarnings VariancesFigure 6: MUR Earnings Variance,3Q 2011,3Q 2012,Variance vs,Actual,Actual,Forecast,DB Forecast,EPS Impact,Comments,U.S. E&PForeign E&PRefining & MarketingOperating incomeCorporate & OtherClean Income,3821369320325,3418543262(35)227,3115473258(21)237,231(30)(14)(11),0.010
27、.16(0.15)0.02(0.07)(0.05),Production and earnings inlineSolid beat with Kikeh improvingHurt by ethanol facility losses and weak US retail marketing margins, swung from a $73m gain in 2Q to +$17m in 3QUpstream beat, offset by downstream weaknesscorporate lower than expected due to FX, which accounted
28、 for -$0.07, or all of the miss,Non-recurring Items,11,2,(7),Reported Income,336,229,230,(1),(0.01),Reported EPSClean EPS,1.731.67,1.171.16,1.181.22,(0.01)(0.06),Miss versus our estimate was entirely below the line due to FX, so result looks solid to usClean EPS of $1.16 vs DBe at $1.22 and Street a
29、t $1.20,3Q EPS guidance from 2Q was $0.90 to $1.15, so they are above the top-end4Q EPS guidance is $1.10 to $1.70, vs. DB prior at $1.55 and Street at $1.47,Exploration Expense,86,94,137,(43),10%,Guidance was $50m to $110m of explo expense in 2Q, dry holes in Kurdistan and Malaysia,Company expects
30、3Q exploration expense to be $60m to $190m,Average shares,194,195,195,0,0%,Sold UK North Sea fields, close by YE12 (incremental to previously discussed disposals),Volumes,3Q 2011,3Q 2012,Variance vs,YoY,Actual,Actual,Forecast DB Forecast,% Change,Oil (KB/D),U.S.CanadaMalaysiaUKCongoTotal Internation
31、alTotal,163144258197,2625494280106,2827492280107,(1)(2)11(0)(0)(2),60%-20%12%145%-58%-2%9%,Eagle Ford growth offsetting GoM declinesTerra Nova dockside turnaroundKikeh appears to be in line, rampingAzurite field well offline for mechanical workoverLiquids production rose 2kbd sequentially, after fal
32、ling 3kbd last quarter,Natural Gas (MMCFD),U.S.,39,49,52,(4),26%,CanadaMalaysiaUKTotal InternationalTotalTotal (MBOED),2112183431470176,1972063406455182,1952023400453183,24(0)62(1),-6%-5%-11%-6%-3%3%,Planned reductions at TupperInline3Q guidance from 2Q was 183kboed, miss was a rounding error,4Q pro
33、d. guidance 207kboed, w/ 1kboed underlift, vs. our 204kboed (prior guidance from 1Q was 205kboed),Sales Volume (MBOED)Overlift/Underlift,172(4),181(0),179(4),No change to FY12 production guidance 193kboedGuidance was for a 4kboed underlift, ended up being essentially in balance,Cash Flow from Operat
34、ionsCapital ExpenditureDividendsCash Build from Cont. Ops,95662753277,754122061(527),741110072(430),13120(11)(97),-21%95%15%-291%,Working capital swing of -$114mCapex through 3Q, ($2.85B) vs. FY12 guidance of $4.1B (raised $0.4B on 2Q)Increased dividend by 14% for 3Q,CONFERENCE CALL THURSDAY AT 1pm
35、ET, (888)-515-2880, pw 1084159Source: Company data and Deutsche Bank estimates,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 5,7,0,6 November 2012Integrated OilUS IntegratedsFigure 7: Suncor Earnings variance,3Q 2011,3Q 2012,CAD millions,Actual DB Est. Variance,Per Share,Comments,E&P,Exploration and Production
36、Oil SandsE&P TotalRM&T,3898371,226479,88535623708,186642828535,(98)(107)(205)173,(0.06)(0.07)(0.13)0.11,First clean net income result below $100m for this division since 2009, missed our number on both revenue and costsVolumes known, realizations and operating costs inline, royalties higher than mod
37、eledAnother great result from the downstream, ran at full capacity, benefitted from differential volatility,Downstream Net Income/bbl refined was $17.50, likely the best in North America once again,Corporate and otherNet Income (Clean)SpecialsNet Income (Reported)Clean EPS,(449)1,256311,2870.79,2241
38、,55501,5551.01,(92)1,27001,2700.82,3162850285,0.210.190.000.190.19,Includes $252m of unrealized FX gainsBeat was due to refining and FXClean EPS of $1.01 vs. DBe at $0.82 and street at $0.79,($0.85 adjusting for FX gains),Reported EPS,0.77,1.01,0.82,Bumped targeted sanction decision date for Ft. Hil
39、ls/Joslyn/Voyageur from mid-2013 to TBD, still reviewing w/ partners,Shares,1,582,1,538,1,551,(13),Volumes,YoY,FirebagMackay RiverOil Sands MiningTotal Oil SandsNA Natural GasNatGas LiquidsNatural Gas TotalEast Coast CanadaNorth SeaOther InternationalTotal InternationalTotal Production (ex-disc ops)
40、Syncrude,552924332734653766933195251036,1131721134127963122342408249838,1132420434128043043135407549838,0(7)(1)28(9)7(0)7(0)(0),106%-41%-13%5%-19%10%-17%-67%27%112%57%-2%5%,First production from stage 4 expected in late 4Q12, steam-in late 3QLower Bitumen production YoY due to excessive rainfall in
41、3Q12Reported monthly, so this is a known numberSlower than expected ramp up of production rates post planned maintenance. Annual guidance cut to 45-50 kb/d from 50-55 kb/dAnnual guidance revised upwards to 85-90 kb/d from 77-85 kb/d on improving stability of field operations in Libya,Discontinued Op
42、erations,0,0,0,Total Production incl. Syncrude,546,535,536,(0),-2%,Approximate Cash Flow,YoY,Operating Cash FlowCapital ExpenditureDividendsCash (burn) generated,2,4171,519170728,2,3881,670196522,2,4692,20020267,(81)(530)(6)455,-1%10%15%28%,Includes a negative working capital swing of $352m2012 outl
43、ook reduced by $850m to $6.65B from $7.50B ($1.9B implied for 4Q)Strong cash generation despite working capital swing,Source: Company data and Deutsche Bank estimates,Page 6,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,0,0,-,6 November 2012Integrated OilUS IntegratedsFigure 8: XOM Earnings Variance,3Q 2011,3Q 2012
44、,Variance,EPS,Comments,($ million),Actual,Actual,Forecast,vs Forecast,Impact,E&P,U.S.ForeignTotal,1,1847,2108,394,6335,3405,973,9426,5927,534,(309)(1,252)(1,561),(0.07)(0.27)(0.34),Volumes light, realizations OKBig miss on volumes, realizations below our model, costs higherInternational E&P drove mi
45、ss,R&M,US R&MForeign R&MTotal,8107691,579,1,4411,7493,190,1,0765111,587,3651,2381,603,0.080.270.35,Huge beat driven by marginsUnprecedented intl downstream result, unclear how much was gain on saleIncludes a gain on sale, unclear how much (+$360m vs. 3Q11, as per release),$360m = $0.08/sh benefitChe
46、micals,US Chemicals,538,565,529,36,0.01,Foreign ChemicalsTotalCorporateNet Income (Clean),4651,003(646)10,330,225790(383)9,570,380909(650)9,379,(155)(119)267191,(0.03)(0.03)0.060.04,Unfavorable FX effects hurt resultHelped by favorable tax items,Special Items,-,-,-,Reported Net Income,10,330,9,570,9,379,191,
