1、2,3,8,7,2011,12,72012,2012,2011,2012,+3%,010-60838203,10%,,S1010510120010,13%,10%,010-S1010510120041,15,20%,2012,010-010-60836703,,100-10,300,H,2012,-20-30-40101122 110128 110415 110624 110831 111115,1,2011,11,. 2011-10-18,600104.SH600741.SH,14.099.20,EPS10 11E 12E 13E1.49 1.89 2.21 2.590.97 1.18 1.
2、42 1.69,1099,11E78,PE12E66,13E55,PB1.71.4,2011 10600104,2011-10-18,600066.SH,22.18,1.65 2.15 2.65 3.22,13,10,3.2,. 2011-09-26,000338.SZ000581.SZ002283.SZ000550.SZ,34.8233.4213.6820.81,4.07 3.88 4.10 4.522.36 2.42 3.01 3.560.40 0.52 0.73 0.991.98 2.03 2.23 2.74,9143410,9142610,811199,89148,2.43.53.72
3、.3,45,20112011,9,2011-09-15,Wind,2011,11,25,. 2011-06-29,2012,2012,2011,2012,2,4,2012. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. 18. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22,600104600741000581002283000338600805600066000550,. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28,1,2011,. 1. 2,3,2010,. 2. 3,56,GDP,115,1,. 3. 4,9,10,11 SU
4、V,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,25,26,28,30,36,37,38,39,40,42,43,44,45,2012,78,2011,15,. 450% . 5,. 6. 6. 6,12,MPV,. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9,2324,10,1%,2010,. 9. 10,. 10. 10,27,III,. 11,. 11,29 201131,+MPV+SUVB,. 12. 12. 12,32,/,/,. 13,33,2.4,SIDI,. 13,3435,1.0T,2012,2012,. 13. 14,. 15. 15.
5、15. 16130% . 17,41,2011,3%,. 17,. 21. 2125% . 2144% . 21,1,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,2012,1 20112 20123 2009,. 410% . 5. 7. 9,51213141516171819,20122011-2013600104600741000581002283000338600805600066000550,. 14. 16. 18. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29,-9 -10-11-11-12,-23-24-24-25-26,2012,2011,2
6、011,2800,2300,11,25,15%,+8.33%,+6.96%,22%,1,2011,15105-5-10-15-20-25-30-35,11,-1,-3,-7,-13-14-15-15-15-16-16-17,-19-19-20-21-21-22-22,-29,Wind,2011,11,25,A,2011,1 10,3.2%,2009,46%,2010,32%,3%20112012,2011,12,7,1,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2012E,2011E,20122012,20
7、01,20%,2,02 031800,7800,09 10,2010,2,5002,0001,5001,000500-,2010,50%40%30%20%10%0%,GDP,58,3,31,000800,802,60,2010,1/7,600,589,599,546,506,400,367,200-,CEIC,128,58,2011,12,7,2,2012,425020015010050-,CEIC,GDP,1000,/,1,2010,GDP 1000 1,5,20 30,GDP,1,GDP,1,5000,3,2010,1000,1,80,00070,00060,00050,00040,000
8、30,00020,00010,000-CEIC,10%,15-20,3-5,15,20%,2000,10,3,10%,2011,12,7,3,1960,1961,1962,1963,1964,1965,1966,1967,1968,1969,1970,1971,1972,1973,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,2012,635030025020015010050-,CEIC,15,120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%,725020015010050-
9、,CEIC,15,0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10-0.1,2012,2011,2010,32%,3%,1-10,2009,1519,+3.5%,3%,2009,2010,68%,42%,45%,32%,46% 28%,2011,1-10,414,-3.2%,20121 2011,2011201120112010,11112,111,23,1.6,3,2011,3,11,2011,3%,2011,24,91,1-956%,3%,27,-54%,4020122011,12,7,20104,2012,880,00060,00040,00020,000-,2011,50%20
10、10,2011,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,20%,10%,20%,10%,GDP,2012,10%,+MPV+SUV,13%10%201210%,2 2012,10%,2007879630473,2008938676505,20091,3641,033747,20101,8061,376949,%32%33%27%,2011E1,8531,4481,015,%3%5%7%,2012E2,0531,6281,154,%11%13%14%,MPV,SUV,2336992494924112304.07.723,20451062625421118364.37.622,256619533164
11、26156514.68.322,4513324943010227196616.99.028,79%101%28%30%60%5%26%21%46%10%26%,511612224058929190497.29.233,13%21%-11%-6%-13%6%-3%-20%6%2%17%,571882294259130200518.010.535,12%17%3%5%2%4%5%5%11%14%6%,2012,13%,1-10,994,+9.8%,825,+8.0% SUV,128,+21.1%,MPV,41,+14.6%,2011,9%,2011,12,7,5,2006,2007,2008,20
12、09,2010,2005,2011.1-10,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2012E,2011E,2012,9,2012,10,13%,1,400,60%,1,000800600400200-,80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,1,2001,000800600400200-,SUV,17%,50%40%30%20%10%0%,80,11 SUV,SUVSUV,18%,512 MPV,MPV,46%,20015010050-,120%100%80%60%40%20%0%,70605040302010-,100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%,1-9,71.2,+26.6%,61.2,+30.2%,1-10,19.6,+44.6%,15.7,
