1、2,20,3,20,EP,2E,34,4E,18,14,19,10,15,38,20013,2,2013,3,1,2013,7.8%,012,5.5%,U,3.7,2.5,8.3,2013 2015,7.8% 7.2% 6.7%,0.4%,8.3% 7.4% 6.88%,2.1% 0.44%,2007 2012,1%,0 1%,1.3%,5 11%,021-S10110510120066,10 14%,8 10%,20.0%,12,9,1,2009,011,2012,42.2%12M12 13M1,21.5%,7.0,3.8%,30.0%6.3%,14.4%,021-S101105101200
2、63,16.4%17.3% 37.9%30% 50%,021-S10110512030004,30%,200 300%,013,20122013PP/E=11,30%,PS,P/E,12Q3,2.757.279.18,11A0.240.470.21,12E0.320.630.27,13E0.330.640.54,14E0.360.660.86,11A11.615.644.1,128.711.54.6,13E8.411.317.0,147.711.010.7,PB1.51.72.1,Wind,4.746.247.37,0.100.070.33,0.260.280.50,0.470.500.65,
3、0.480.730.74,48.184.722.3,8.02.14.6,10.212.411.3,9.98.510.0,2.41.82.0,1,2013,1,.,7.02,0.02,0.36,0.60,0.69,281.6,9.7,11.7,10.1,1.3,. 2013-1-21,6.617.900.26,0.090.370.21,0.410.880.27,0.600.900.40,0.630.950.50,73.321.448.9,5.98.98.0,11.18.825.7,10.58.420.5,1.72.04.9,2,2013,. 2012-112-12,2013,2,28,2013,
4、A-H,2013,2,7.8% . 1,2012,U,. 1,. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 16.16.18. 21. 21.21.22,18,BJ,2013,2,1 072 05,1212,. 1. 1,3 2012,. 1,4 085 046 087 088 089 07,121212121213,. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3,10 07 1311 201212 06 1213 2012 2013,. 3. 4. 4. 5,14 2003 201515 1983 201516 1983 201517 09 1219 05 1320 05 1321 05 1322
5、 07 1223 201224 07 1325 07 1326 06 1327 06 1328 07 1329 11 1330 07 1331 07 1332 07 1333 10 1334 08 1335 11 13M1,GDP,. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9.10.10.10.10.10.12,47,2013,2,36 11 13M137 11 13M138 11 13M1,.12.12.12,39 10 13M140 07 13M141 10 13M142 10 13M1,LNGLNGLNG,.13.13.13.13,43
6、4445 201546 2015,LNGLNG,.14.14.17.17.18,48 2013M2,.22,49 07 13,A-H,.22,MW,MW,6,3,8,9,10,11,16,1,2,4,5,2013,2,1 2007 20132 20123 2006 20154 2007 20155 2012 2015,. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6.11,7,m,.12,.16.17.18.19,12 201013 201014 201015,666,1112012,.19.20.20.21,.22,20132013,.22.23,3,201320132013,.23.23.23,13.6%,
7、12.8%,10.7%,10.3%,3.1%,1,2013,2,2013,2012,U,7.8%,2012,49,591,kWh12,11,U,10.0%,5.5%05 11,9.0%,1,07,12,2,05,12,KWh,1 2,1 2,2012,0.0% 3.9% 11.5%,10.7%,8.3,2011,3.7,2.5,3,2012,4,08,12,08A,09A,10A,11A,12A,11.5%,12.5%2.0%,20%15%,14.8%12.0%,15.9%14.0%12.2% 12.1% 11.5% 11.9%10.4%,10%,7.9%,73.9%,5%,6.0%5.4%,
8、5.5%,4.2%3.9%3.7% 3.8%0.0%,3.9%,0%,2007,2013,12,%,07A14.85.716.09.017.614.8,07A100.02.776.513.761.85.1,08A5.43.13.82.14.13.1,08A100.02.675.313.361.05.0,09A6.48.04.50.85.21.9,09A100.02.674.112.660.54.8,10A14.83.915.915.115.912.0,10A100.02.374.912.761.04.8,11A12.03.712.29.312.712.0,11A100.02.275.012.4
9、61.44.8,12A5.50.03.94.33.85.0,12A100.02.073.912.360.54.7,13E7.83.06.67.36.39.0,13E100.02.073.112.259.74.8,1,(,2013,2,3,%,07A20.214.412.013.622.230.623.311.917.012.911.4,07A41.68.42.35.711.47.46.415.11.09.811.1,08A4.61.11.75.32.96.110.63.09.910.412.8,08A41.38.02.25.711.17.46.814.71.010.211.8,09A5.53.
10、23.58.27.00.49.75.711.813.012.6,09A41.07.82.15.811.27.07.014.71.010.812.5,10A17.79.917.017.515.723.024.412.126.213.611.3,10A41.87.32.25.911.27.57.714.41.210.712.1,11A13.712.58.017.612.812.416.010.017.014.010.3,11A42.57.42.16.211.37.67.914.21.210.912.0,12A2.97.04.01.0-3.08.04.06.05.511.510.7,12A41.57
11、.52.06.010.47.87.814.31.211.512.5,13E4.88.05.01.0-4.011.010.010.012.012.011.5,13E40.37.52.05.69.38.08.014.51.311.913.0,GDP,11.91.2,9.00.6,8.70.7,10.31.4,9.21.3,7.80.7,8.01.0,2012,80,200MW,14,160MW,50,650MW,63.2%,15,510MW,19.3%,6,000kW,1,144,912MW,7.8% 2011,10.0%,11,8.2%,819,171MW,6.6% 2011,8.3%,11,6
12、.7%,248,900MW,6.8% 2011,7.8%,11,7.8%,12,570MW,5 04,12,6,08,12,14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000,Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Mar- Apr-04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12CEIC,160140120100806040200-20,2004 2005,30 45%,2006 2008,9 14%,2009,22.8%,2010,2011,60%,6.6%,1.8% 2012,10.4%,2006 2011,2004 2005
13、23 34%,2012,7.7%,2012,7,466,2.0%,3,693,0.2%,3,772,3.9%,50.5%1,014,2011,51.6%26.9%,70.8%,10.5%,2,3,2013,2,7,08,12,8,08,12,2013,2,2,200MW,66.6%,9 07,13,10,07,13,MW,20126.4%,2009,4,572,4,965,158,3403,555,3.3%,536,17.8%,2002,3,402,2012,15%3,2013,2,11,2012,12,06,12,5,0002,500,4,572,4,965,17.8% 18%3,55512
14、%,40%30%20%,6%,10%,0,0%,0%,-2,500,-3.3%,-6.4%,-6%,-10%,08M1-208M708M1209M609M1110M510M1011M4 11M9 12M3 12M8,-12%,-20%,-5,0002,2012,-18%,-30%,2012,2011,2012,2011,4,9784,2344,3874,7493,9635,5835,0145,2995,2654,1894,7904,1174,3154,5723,9655,0045,2884,4863,1094,3194,9084,7243,8914,1514,1204,0634,1604,71
15、33,8143,870,4,9324,2504,4074,7954,0595,6785,2015,5245,5253,7515,0704,4114,5364,7304,1605,1936,0694,9113,3694,5045,2905,2324,1573,7974,1794,0274,4944,5624,1764,076,0.9%-0.4%-0.5%-1.0%-2.4%-1.7%-3.6%-4.1%-4.7%11.7%-5.5%-6.7%-4.9%-3.3%-4.7%-3.6%-12.9%-8.7%-7.7%-4.1%-7.2%-9.7%-6.4%9.3%-1.4%0.9%-7.4%3.3%
16、-8.7%-5.1%,5,1664,5415,0434,9624,4375,7025,6215,5715,3315,0715,0464,5584,7244,9654,6015,2685,8084,5083,8144,5215,0474,8474,3375,1874,3644,8084,6504,3624,1763,249,5,0414,5415,0474,9674,4565,7855,7525,7425,5475,3015,2844,7975,0155,3054,9295,6866,3554,9414,1904,9745,6495,4554,9165,9345,0515,6175,6155,2
17、695,3524,709,2.5%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-1.4%-2.3%-3.0%-3.9%-4.3%-4.5%-5.0%-5.8%-6.4%-6.7%-7.3%-8.6%-8.8%-9.0%-9.1%-10.7%-11.1%-11.8%-12.6%-13.6%-14.4%-17.2%-17.2%-22.0%-31.0%,8.6%4.5%8.2%4.4%3.3%7.0%3.1%11.5%3.9%10.9%7.0%2.1%12.3%5.5%6.4%3.0%2.4%1.0%1.1%3.9%5.0%3.3%7.7%7.4%3.9%3.7%0.8%4.2%4.0%9.3%,1.4%
18、13.9%5.8%6.9%3.8%10.9%9.9%11.3%3.4%7.3%9.4%13.0%18.2%7.8%16.2%1.8%8.5%9.8%4.0%7.4%2.2%10.3%6.9%1.8%10.0%11.8%2.9%6.2%6.6%19.1%,0.5%1.2%2.1%5.0%0.6%11.0%5.1%9.1%2.5%7.7%7.7%7.5%23.4%6.6%19.2%1.8%0.0%9.9%2.4%8.3%2.9%11.1%1.8%0.0%14.3%25.3%3.9%7.5%8.6%27.0%,2013 2015,7.8% 7.2% 6.7%,2008,2009,0.6 0.7,2010,1.4,2013,2012,0.7,2013,1.0,4,03A,04A,05A,06A,07A,08A,09A,10A,11A,12A,13E,14E,15E,12M1-2,12M3,12M4,12M5,12M6,12M7,12M8,12M9,12M10,12M11,12M12,13M1-2,13M3,13M4,13M5,13M6,13M7,13M8,13M9,13M10,13M11,13M12,3,1.2,2013,2,2006,2015,0.4,GDP,0.4,FAI,0.2,kWh/,
