1、增长,11.76,15.00,15.13,22.50,当前,股价走势图,2013 年 1 月 23 日投资决策买入万科 A (000002.SZ),潜在回报： 28%资本结构改善将推动增长与回报上升；上调目标价（摘要）,证券研究报告,建议理由,投资摘要,我们认为万科 B 转 H 股将令投资者有更好的机会投资于这家知名的房地产领军企业。我们预计在持续行业整合的背景下，以万科能够持续实现高回报规模和区域,低,高,扩张的能力、谨慎的现金流管理，及对产业化/产品创新的不断执著追求，我们预计万科有望在 2012-2014 年实现 24%的每股核心盈利增长和 22%的核心净资产回报率。我们将万科 B 的
2、12 个月目标价格上调 57%至 22.5 港元，将万科 A 的,回报*估值倍数波动性百分位,20th,40th,60th,80th,100th,12 个月目标价格上调 12%至人民币 15.0 元，分别对应 49%/28%的潜在上行空间。,万科A (000002.SZ)亚太房地产行业平均水平,* 回报 - 资本回报率,投资摘要指标的全面描述请参见本报告的信息披露部分。,推动因素1) 我们认为此次转股将拓宽万科的融资选择，这可能降低公司未来的融资成本，使其可以和香港上市同业在更公平的情况下展开竞争。 融资成本的降低也有望提,主要数据股价(Rmb)12个月目标价格(Rmb)200002.SZ 股
3、价(HK$)200002.SZ 12个月目标价格(HK$),高万科优化资本结构的灵活性，因此有望较同业进一步提高净资产回报率、改善增长前景；2) 我们预计万科 2013 年上半年合同销售将实现 30%的同比增长，高,市值(Rmb mn / US$ mn)外资持股比例(%),129,789.6 / 20,881.9-,于我们对中国海外及保利 A 等其他领先开发商的 10-15%的增幅预测。3) 我们认为，较之对中国海外及保利的预测，市场对万科的预测相对保守。我们对万科调整后的 2013-14 年核心每股盈利预测比万得预测高出 9%和 5%。估值万科 A/B 股股价所对应的估值处于其历史区间低端，
4、并较香港/内地上市同业存在,每股盈利(Rmb) 新每股盈利调整幅度(%)每股盈利增长(%)每股摊薄盈利(Rmb) 新市盈率(X)市净率(X)EV/EBITDA(X)股息收益率(%)净资产回报率(%),12/110.880.032.20.8813.42.47.61.119.8,12/12E1.17(2.4)33.81.1710.02.07.91.521.9,12/13E1.483.326.71.487.91.65.01.922.8,12/14E1.8110.322.01.816.51.32.42.322.7,大幅折让，因此我们认为该股被明显低估。我们现将万科 A/B 股目标价格的净资产价值折让幅
5、度分别收窄 5/30 个百分点至 25%/10%（与我们对保利 A/中国海外,的目标价格的净资产价值折让幅度一致），并由此更新我们的 12 个月目标价格至人民币 15.0 元/22.5 港元。我们重申对万科 A/B 股的买入评级，其中万科 A 位于我们的强力买入名单。主要风险未能在港交所上市；房地产调整政策较预期严厉；利润率下滑较预期严重。,12.011.511.010.510.09.59.08.58.07.5,1,2501,2001,1501,1001,0501,000950900850800,*全文翻译随后提供,7.0Jan-12,Apr-12,Aug-12,Nov-12,750,所属投资
6、名单,万科A (左轴),深证A股指数 (右轴),亚太买入名单亚太强力买入名单,股价表现(%)绝对相对于深证A股指数,3个月39.733.0,6个月26.522.3,12个月48.938.4,行业评级： 具吸引力王逸, CFA 执业证书编号: S1420510120004+86(21)2401-8930 北京高华证券有限责任公司李薇 执业证书编号: S1420510120012+86(21)2401-8926 北京高华证券有限责任公司杜茜 执业证书编号: S1420511100001+86(10)6627-3147 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,资来源：公司数据、高盛研
7、究预测、FactSet（股价为1/22/2013收盘价）北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究,2,2013 年 1 月 23 日万科 A： 财务数据概要,万科 A (000002.SZ),损益表(Rmb mn)主营业务收入主营业务成本销售、一般及管理费用研发费用其它营业收入/（支出）EBITDA折旧和摊销EBIT利息收入财务费用,12/1167,
8、709.4(46,933.6)(4,997.7)-(67.5)15,710.6(137.3)15,573.3801.7(1,311.5),12/12E112,443.1(82,892.0)(6,746.6)-329.923,134.4(138.2)22,996.1336.1(1,536.4),12/13E128,017.0(94,845.1)(6,784.9)-264.326,651.3(156.2)26,495.1315.8(1,437.2),12/14E142,365.4(104,282.2)(8,541.9)-175.529,716.8(176.1)29,540.7720.4(1,013
9、.4),资产负债表(Rmb mn)现金及等价物应收账款存货其它流动资产流动资产固定资产净额无形资产净额长期投资其它长期资产资产合计,12/1133,614.119,955.4208,335.520,741.6282,646.72,301.4476.56,426.54,357.4296,208.4,12/12E31,580.229,746.8259,313.725,255.7345,896.42,597.6476.57,073.04,270.3360,313.7,12/13E72,035.633,866.9242,992.330,493.4379,388.22,935.9476.58,283.6
10、4,270.3395,354.4,12/14E117,769.037,662.8225,668.328,450.9409,551.13,309.7476.59,788.54,270.3427,396.0,联营公司,699.7,646.6,1,210.6,1,504.9,其它税前利润所得税少数股东损益,42.715,805.9(4,206.3)(1,974.7),42.722,485.0(5,459.6)(4,145.2),42.726,627.0(6,354.1)(3,958.1),42.730,795.2(7,322.6)(3,569.2),应付账款短期贷款其它流动负债流动负债,173,02
11、7.023,601.54,095.7200,724.2,206,433.420,297.95,119.6231,851.0,235,254.015,297.95,631.5256,183.5,263,565.310,297.96,194.7280,058.0,长期贷款,26,822.4,41,704.3,31,704.3,16,704.3,优先股股息前净利润优先股息非经常性项目前净利润,9,624.90.09,624.9,12,880.20.012,880.2,16,314.70.016,314.7,19,903.40.019,903.4,其它长期负债长期负债负债合计,829.427,651.
12、7228,375.9,870.942,575.1274,426.1,870.932,575.1288,758.6,870.917,575.1297,633.1,税后非经常性损益,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,净利润,9,624.9,12,880.2,16,314.7,19,903.4,优先股,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,普通股权益,52,967.8,64,418.6,78,820.6,96,301.1,每股基本盈利（非经常性项目前）(Rmb)每股基本盈利（非经常性项目后）(Rmb)每股摊薄盈利（非经常性项目后）(Rmb)每股股息(Rmb)股息支付率(%),0.880.880.880.13
13、14.9,1.171.171.170.1714.9,1.481.481.480.2214.9,1.811.811.810.2714.9,少数股东权益负债及股东权益合计每股净资产(Rmb)评估净资产价值(Rmb mn)评估每股净资产(Rmb),14,864.7296,208.44.82-,21,469.0360,313.75.86195,709.517.80,27,775.3395,354.47.17220,195.320.03,33,461.9427,396.08.76-,自由现金流收益率(%),3.0,(9.7),34.9,40.5,增长率和利润率(%)主营业务收入增长率EBITDA增长率E
14、BIT增长率净利润增长率每股盈利增长毛利率EBITDA利润率EBIT利润率现金流量表(Rmb mn)优先股股息前净利润折旧及摊销少数股东权益运营资本增减,12/1141.833.834.032.232.230.723.223.012/119,624.9137.31,974.7(64,093.8),12/12E66.147.347.733.833.826.320.620.512/12E12,880.2138.24,145.2(27,363.1),12/13E13.915.215.226.726.725.920.820.712/13E16,314.7156.23,958.141,021.8,12/
15、14E11.211.511.522.022.026.820.920.712/14E19,903.4176.13,569.241,839.4,比率净资产回报率(%)总资产回报率(%)平均运用资本回报率(%)存货周转天数应收账款周转天数应付账款周转天数净负债/股东权益(%)EBIT利息保障倍数(X)估值基本市盈率(X)市净率(X)EV/EBITDA(X)股息收益率(%),12/1119.83.815.81,328.698.31,099.324.830.512/1113.42.47.61.1,12/12E21.93.917.81,029.680.7835.435.419.212/12E10.02.0
16、7.91.5,12/13E22.84.321.3966.590.7849.9(23.5)23.612/13E7.91.65.01.9,12/14E22.74.839.3820.291.7873.0(69.9)100.812/14E6.51.32.42.3,其它经营活动产生的现金流,55,746.33,389.4,(4,008.1)(14,207.6),(5,936.3)55,514.6,1,100.866,588.9,核心估值,12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,资本开支收购,(261.6)(5,063.0),(434.4)0.0,(494.5)0.0,(550.0)0.0,
17、核心利润(Rmb mn)每股核心盈利(Rmb),9,624.90.88,12,880.21.17,16,314.71.48,19,903.41.81,剥离,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,其它投资活动产生的现金流,(328.0)(5,652.6),0.0(434.4),0.0(494.5),0.0(550.0),核心净资产回报率(%)核心总资产回报率(%),19.83.8,21.93.9,22.84.3,22.74.8,核心平均运用资本回报率(%),15.8,17.8,21.3,39.3,支付股息的现金（普通股和优先股）借款增减普通股发行（回购）,(1,099.5)3,600.00.0,(1,
18、429.4)11,578.30.0,(1,912.8)(15,000.0)0.0,(2,422.9)(20,000.0)0.0,核心市盈率(X)核心股息支付率(%)每股核心盈利增长率(%),13.414.932.2,10.014.933.8,7.914.926.7,6.514.922.0,其它筹资活动产生的现金流,(1,693.6)806.9,2,459.112,608.0,2,348.1(14,564.7),2,117.4(20,305.5),总现金流,(1,456.3),(2,033.9),40,455.3,45,733.5,注：最后一个实际年度数据可能包括已公布和预测数据。,资料来源：公
19、司数据、高盛研究预测对此报告有贡献的人员王逸, CFA李薇杜茜高华证券投资研究,3,6,9,3,2013 年 1 月 23 日Table of ContentsBetter growth & returns outlook justifies a higher valuationValuation: At lower end of its history & discount to closest peersMany similarities but better growth and return outlook for VankeShareholding structureDisclosu
20、re Appendix,万科 A (000002.SZ)1921,The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of January 22, 2013.The authors would like to thank Olivia Xiao for her contribution to this report.Better growth & returns outlook justifies a higher valuationVanke B: valuation should be at least c
21、omparable to COLIWe believe the relisting of Vanke B as H, from a marginalized market to a main board for foreigninvestors/QDII, will help Vanke broaden its financing alternatives and reduce its financing costs,which we view as crucial for a Chinese homebuilder to improve returns on capital. This wo
22、uld alsolevel the playing field for Vanke with its Hong Kong listed peers (which enjoy much lowerfinancing costs than Vanke), suggesting the current wide valuation gap between Vanke B and itsHK listed peers should narrow. Given Vankes leading industry position, solid track record andhigher growth vi
23、sibility/returns, we believe Vanke B should trade comparably with COLI, thus weset our TP for Vanke B at a 10% discount to our NAV of HK$25.0, in line with COLI, or HK$22.5,implying 49% potential upside.Vanke A: Deserves a rerating based on higher flexibility of financialleverage from reduced fundin
24、g costsMoreover, Vanke A has traded at a discount to its A-share listed peers in 2012 on concerns ofslower growth from a large base, particularly given Vankes conservatism in using financialleverage vs. its peers. We believe accessibility to cheaper funding should provide Vanke moreroom/flexibility
25、to optimize its capital structure, driving a better growth/returns outlook amid a trendof industry consolidation. Its current longer duration land bank (6.6 years vs. COLI 6.5 and Poly6.2 years, using end-12E land bank balance divided by 2012 sales volume) has already placedVanke at a slight advanta
26、ge versus its peers in terms of relative margin sustainability in thecoming years. We upgrade our TP for Vanke A by 12% to Rmb15.0 (from Rmb13.4) afternarrowing our TP discount by 5ppt to 25%, in line with that for Poly A, and upgrade our end-13ENAV by 5% after factoring the past months new acquisit
27、ions (Rmb15.7bn), implying 28%potential upside. Our TP-implied 2013E P/E multiple for Vanke A is 10.1X, which represents asmall premium to our TP-implied P/E (9.4X) for Poly A (as the closest A-share listed peer forVanke), vs. historically in line, as we believe Vanke A should be re-rated against Po
28、ly A.高华证券投资研究,3,4,2013 年 1 月 23 日,图表1: Summary of estimate changes,万科 A (000002.SZ),Old forecast New forecast1. End-2013E NAV for existing land bank,Change (%),A share (Rmb/shr)B share (HKD/shr),19.1223.90,20.0325.00,55,2. 12-month target price,A share (Rmb/shr)B share (HKD/shr),13.4014.30,15.0022.5
29、0,1257,3. Contracted sales (Rmb bn)A & B shares,20122013E2014E,130.0141.6142.4,141.2170.4172.1,92021,4. Net profit (Rmb mn)A & B shares,2012E2013E2014E,13,19215,79118,040,12,88016,31519,903,(2)10,5. EPS (Rmb/shr)A & B shares,2012E2013E2014E,1.201.441.64,1.171.481.81,(2)310,6. Net gearingA & B shares
30、,2012E2013E2014E,27%-13%-42%,35%-24%-70%,7 ppt-11 ppt-28 ppt,资料来源： Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates高华证券投资研究,Shimao,CG,SOHO,1.5,2009,5,2013 年 1 月 23 日图表2: Better ROE than COLI for 2012E-2014E justifies a higher P/B multipleAdjusted P/B vs. ROE metrics for our offshore coverage univ
31、erseAdj P/B (x)3.53.0Vanke (B) (TP implied)2.5,万科 A (000002.SZ)COGO,COLI,Longfor,2.0,Sino OceanYanlord,CRLFranshionR&FVanke (B)SunacAgile EvergrandeGreentown,1.0,Shui On Land,Poly Property (H),KWG,0.5UndervaluedAverage 12E-14E underlying ROE0.0,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%,35%,Note: We have excluded al
32、l revaluation gains/losses recorded in earnings and book value.资料来源： Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.图表3: A re-rating for Vanke A is warranted based on higher flexibility of financial leverage, with potentially reducedfunding costsOnshore sector 12mth forward P/E comparisonP/E (12m
33、th forward),Nov 11 - Jun 12 upturn,Jan 09 - July 09 upturn,Company,Ticker,Rating,TP implied2013E P/E,Current,Max,Median,Min,Max,Median,Min,Max,Median,Min,Vanke ABCDCMPZhongnanGemdalePolyWorldUnionOCTRisesunSMCOnshore sector,000002.SZ Buy*600376.SS Buy*000024.SZ Buy000961.SZ Buy600383.SS Neutral60004
34、8.SS Neutral002285.SZ Neutral000069.SZ Neutral002146.SZ Neutral600823.SS SellSector avg (simple avg,10.1X9.6X12.8X11.5X8.3X9.4X17.0X11.8X9.4X8.2X10.1X,7.8X7.4X11.6X8.8X8.3X9.3X19.6X11.6X11.1X9.4X9.6X,7.2X9.7X12.1X11.4X9.5X9.3X25.4X12.4X10.2X10.8X10.3X,6.6X7.9X9.9X9.0X7.7X7.5X21.7X10.7X8.3X9.8X8.6X,6
35、.1X5.7X8.8X6.8X6.0X6.4X17.1X10.0X6.3X7.9X7.1X,25.0X25.7X34.5Xn.a.17.7X24.1Xn.a.25.8X17.4Xn.a.24.3X,15.9X10.9X22.9Xn.a.9.2X14.4Xn.a.17.3X10.8Xn.a.14.5X,14.0X6.2X14.4Xn.a.6.6X10.8Xn.a.12.8X7.4Xn.a.10.3X,25.0X25.7X34.5X27.9X17.7X24.1X37.6X25.8X21.2Xn.a.25.2X,17.8X16.5X24.7X22.8X13.2X18.1X27.6X18.9X15.3
36、Xn.a.18.4X,14.0X6.2X14.4X19.2X6.6X10.8X17.3X12.8X7.4Xn.a.11.4X,资料来源： Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.*indicates the stock is on our regional Conviction List高华证券投资研究,6,2013 年 1 月 23 日,万科 A (000002.SZ),Valuation: At lower end of its history & discount to closest peersVanke A/B is trading a
37、t lower end of its historical range.,图表4: Vanke A is trading at a 41% discount to end-13ENAV vs historical average of 12% since 2006Vanke A historical NAV discountNAV discount200%150%+2STD100%,图表5: Vanke B is trading at a 40% discount to end-13ENAV vs historical average of 15% since 2006Vanke B hist
38、orical NAV discountNAV discount200%150%100%,+2STD+1STD,50%,50%,+1STD,0%,Average,0%,Average,-50%-1STD-100%-2STD-150%资料来源： Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.图表6: Vanke A is trading at a 7.9X 2013E P/EVanke A 12month forward P/EVanke (A) 12mth forward P/E(x)70.0,-50%-1STD-100%-2STD-150%
39、资料来源： Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates图表7: Vanke B is trading at a 8.4X 2013E P/EVanke B 12month forward P/EVanke (B) 12mth forward P/E(x)45.0,40.060.035.0,50.0,+2STD,30.0,+2STD,40.0,25.0,+1STD,30.020.0,+1STDAverage,20.015.0,Average,10.0,10.05.0,-1STD,Current P/E 8.4X,-1STD0.0资料来源：
40、Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.高华证券投资研究,Current P/E 7.9X,0.0资料来源： Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.,7,2013 年 1 月 23 日图表8: Vanke A is trading at a 1.6X 2013E P/BVanke A 12month trailing P/BVanke (A) 12mth trailing P/B(x)10.0,万科 A (000002.SZ)图表9: Vanke B is trading
41、at a 1.7X 2013E P/BVanke B 12month trailing P/BVanke (B) 12mth trailing P/B(x)6.0,9.05.0,8.07.0,4.0,+2STD,6.05.0,3.0,+1STD,4.03.02.01.0,+2STD+1STDAverage,2.01.0,Average-1STD,-1STD0.0资料来源： Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.,-2STD0.0资料来源： Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimat
42、es.,.and discount to its closest peers listed off/onshoreWe think COLI and Poly A are the closest peers for Vanke A among our offshore and onshorecoverage universe respectively, given the many similarities between them that we discuss in thesection below: Many similarities but better growth and retu
43、rn outlook for Vanke. Despite a similarstrong fundamental outlook for Vanke vs. its peers, its A/B shares are trading at discount to bothCOLI and Poly A in all key valuation metrics, as shown in Exhibits 10-12.We believe this is partly due to the valuation compression since 2010 for the A share stockmarket overall. But the recent widening of the valuation discount between Vanke A and Poly A isdifficult to justify, as we discussed in our last sector report published on Dec 4 2012, 2013Outlook: Start of a virtuous cycle; raising targets; Vanke A to CL-Buy.高华证券投资研究,
