1、基于印度的国内经济分析,【汇报时间】2011-11-8,1,东亚经济研究,2,目 录,3,产业结构,outside a rice field in Andhra（安德拉邦） Pradesh. India is the second largest producer of rice in the world after China and Andhra Pradesh is the second largest rice producing state in India with Uttar Pradesh being the largest.,Agriculture and allied se
2、ctors like forestry（林业）, logging（伐木业） and fishing（渔业） accounted for18.5% of the GDP in 201011, employed 52.1% of the total workforce, and despite a steady decline of its share in the GDP, is still the largest economic sector and a significant piece of the overall socio-economic development of India.
3、However, international comparisons reveal the average yield in India is generally 30% to 50% of the highest average yield in the world.India is the largest producer in the world of milk(牛奶), jute（黄麻） and pulses（豆子）, and also has the worlds second largest cattle （牛）population with 175 million animals
4、 in 2008. It is the second largest producer of rice（水稻）, wheat（小麦）, sugarcane（甘蔗）, cotton（棉花） and groundnuts（花生）, as well as the second largest fruit（水果） and vegetable（蔬菜） producer, accounting for 10.9% and 8.6% of the world fruit and vegetable production respectively.,4,产业结构,Low agricultural produc
5、tivity is the one of the greatest challenges facing Indian agriculture. If India is to evolve into a middle income country with a broad-based middle class, then rural reform, greater agricultural productivity, and sufficient employment growth in the manufacturing and services sectors are all necessa
6、ry conditions.,1、农村改革 2、劳动力向工业和服务业转移 3、提高农业的劳动生产率,2010-11 18.5,5,产业结构,India has one of the worlds fastest growing automobile industries. Shown here is the Tata Nano, the worlds cheapest car. 100,000 ( US$ 2100）约合人民币1.3万,The Indian manufacturing base is highly diversified encompassing mining（采矿）, pow
7、er generation（能源）, chemicals（化工）, petrochemicals（石化）, metals（金属）, transportation equipment（运输设备）, machinery & equipment（机械）, paper（造纸）, and textiles（纺织）. Manufacturing makes up about 79% of total industrial output, while mining and electricity account for about 10% each.,6,产业结构,2010-11,26.3,7,产业结构,I
8、ndia textile industry largely depends upon the textile manufacturing and export. It also plays a major role in the economy of the country. India earns about 27% of its total foreign exchange（外汇） through textile exports. Further, the textile industry of India also contributes nearly 14% of the total
9、industrial production（工业产值） of the country. It also contributes around 3% to the GDP of the country. India textile industry is also the largest in the country in terms of employment generation. It not only generates jobs in its own industry, but also opens up scopes for the other ancillary sectors.
10、India textile industry currently generates employment to more than 35 million people.,8,产业结构,India is 13th in services output(服务外包）.it is the services sector that is playing an increasingly important role in the Indian economy. Services, which made up only 29% of GDP in 1951-52, grew to 57% of GDP b
11、y 2009-10.,The growth in the IT sector is attributed to increased specialisation（专业化）, and an availability of a large pool of low cost, highly skilled, educated and fluent English-speaking workers, on the supply side, matched on the demand side by increased demand from foreign consumers interested i
12、n Indias service exports, or those looking to outsource their operations. The share of the Indian IT industry in the countrys GDP increased from 4.8 % in 200506 to 7% in 2008. In 2009, 7 Indian firms were listed among the top 15 technology outsourcing companies in the world,9,产业结构,This industry has
13、been instrumental in driving the economy of the nation on to a rapid growth curve. As per the study of NASSCOM the IT/ITES industry recorded a growth of 4 - 7 percent in the year 2010.成功的原因： 1、印度有廉价和熟练的软件专业人才。 2、许多跨国IT巨头在印度的离岸开发中心。 3、软件开发和咨询服务拓宽全球市场（帮助外包公司如Infosys公司，塔塔咨询服务公司和Wipro更便宜的工资几乎相等的薪金支付给美国和
14、欧洲的IT同行的五分之一。 ）,10,产业结构,2010-11 55.2,贸易, 酒店, 运输, 和通信 (THTC); 金融, 保险, 房地产, 社区团体、社会及个人服务 (CSPS).,11,国内经济数据,注：第一行为以不变价格计算的印度GDP（十亿卢比）第二行为增长率第三行为以现价计算的印度GDP（十亿卢比）第四行为以现价计算的印度GDP（十亿美元）第五行为国民储蓄（占GDP的百分比）第六行为总投资（占GDP的百分比）第七行为GDP平减指数第八行为人均GDP（美元）,-来自世界经济展望数据库2011年9月,12,分析比较,据印度时报10月25日报道，安永会计师事务所最新发表的一份报告显示，印度经济增长速度有望在2013年赶超中国，这份报告预测：2013年，印度实际GDP增速可达9.5%，而中国的GDP略低，为9%。2014年，印度经济增长速度将达9%，而中国为8.6%。本财年的印度经济增长速度比2010年的8.2%稍低，预计将为7.2%。,问题,对于上述观点给位怎么看？,THANK YOU,13,东亚经济研究,
