1、1,Understanding Foreign Exchange2 Payments Among Nations 3 The Foreign Exchange Market 4 Forward Exchange and International Financial Investment 5 What Determines Exchange Rates? 6 Government Policies Toward the Foreign Exchange Market 7 International Lending and Financial Crises,Part One,CHAPTER TW
2、O,Payments among Nations 国际收支,3,Framework of chapter 2,Accounting principles记账原则 A countries balance of payments一国的国际收支 The macro meaning of the current account balance 经常账户余额的宏观意义 The macro meaning of the overall balance总余额的宏观意义,4,Balance of Payments 国际收支,Balance of payments are the set of accounts
3、 recording all flows of value between a nations residents and the residents of the rest of the world during a period of time. p13国际收支：国际收支是指一国的居民在一定时期内（一年、一季度、一月）与他国居民之间的经济交易的系统记录。 Balance of Payments Statement:国际收支平衡表Figure 2.1,5,Accounting principles,A credit item (+): a country must be paid; paym
4、ent by a foreigner into the country.,A debit item (-): a country must pay; payment by the country to a foreigner.,Exports of goods Purchases by foreigners in this country Foreigners investing in the countrys bonds,Imports of goods Purchases by firms in this country from foreign countries Purchases b
5、y investors in this country from foreigners,6,A countrys balance of payments,Three major parts of a countrys balance of payments:,Current account（经常账户）,Financial account（金融账户）,Official international reserves（官方国际储备）,7,Current account,The current account includes all debit and credit items that are e
6、xports and imports of goods and services, income receipts and income payments, and gifts.,8,Current account,goods and service,income,unilateral transfer单方面转移,Payments and receipts on foreign financial assets, like interest, dividends(股息) and other claims(债权).,Gifts makes and receives,Figure 2.1,Good
7、s and service imports and exports,9,The net value of flows of goods, services, income, and unilateral transfers is the current account balance. Current account balance (CA) 经常账户差额商品贸易差额、劳务差额加上收入净额和无偿转移收支净额之和。,Positive balance: Surplus (盈余) Negative balance: Deficit (赤字),10,Contd,盈余（）：一国在与外国交易中增加了资产或
8、减少了负债。赤字（）：一国在与外国交易中减少了资产或增加了负债。,11,Financial account 金融账户,The net value of flows of financial assets and similar claims (excluding official international reserve asset flows) is the private financial account balance.,P16,12,Contd,Varieties of private capital flows,Direct investment 直接投资lending to,
9、or purchases of ownership in,International portfolio investment国际证券投资purchases of bonds and stocks,Financial account,Financial account balance,Figure 2.1 p15,13,Contd,Please note: the value reported in the capital account are for the principal amounts （本金） only of assets tradedany flows of earnings
10、on foreign assets are reported in the current account.,14,Official international reserves 官方国际储备,Official international reserves assets are money-like assets that are held by governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them.,Gold,Foreign exchange asset
11、s, e.g. U.S. Treasury bonds),Special drawing rights (SDRs) in IMF,Figure 2.1 p15,15,Add the three major parts of a countrys balance of payments together,According to double-entry bookkeeping,positive items + negative items = 0,16,Statistical Discrepancy 统计误差,It is a item created to make the accounts
12、 balance and to warn us that something was missed. Figure 2.1 note a p15,17,THE MACRO MEANING OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE,The CA has several meanings.,Financial account + Official international reserve,Net flows of international financial investment,Net foreign investment (If) 净国外投资,CA = If,1. Cu
13、rrent account balance,18,2. National saving (S) versus domestic investment (Id). S = Id + If, so that CA = S Id,国内投资,19,Contd,Domestic production (Y) versus national expenditure (E). Y = C + Id + G +(X M), 商品和劳务的生产= 消费+投资政府支出贸易差额E = C + Id + G,对商品和劳务总支出=消费+投资政府支出,20,收入的四部门模型。四部门包括家庭、 企业、政府和国外部门。,居民户
14、,企业,商品或劳务,货币（消费C）,提供生产要素,货币（工资或利息）,金融机构,储蓄S,投资I,政府,税收 T,支出G,国外部门,国外企业购买（出口）,向国外企业购买（进口）,21,Contd,Therefore, Y = E +(X M), and CA = (X M) approximately, -the difference between the value of the countrys exports of goods and services and the value of its imports of goods and services.so that CA = Y E,
15、22,Meaning of current account balance p20,Note: we are not saying which one is good or bad,23,These identities help us see what must be changed if the current account balance is to be changed. The identities also help us to understand what forces might be causing changes in the current account balan
16、ce.,Figure 2.2,24,If CA is in deficit, then what could we do?Increase Y, or decrease E.,25,THE MACRO MEANING OF THE OVERALL BALANCE p23,Official settlements balance (官方结算差额) Current account balance + Private capital balance B = CA + KA p15 figure 2.1 note b因为所有项目最终差额必须为0，所以官方结算差额的不平衡必须用官方储备资产（OR）来弥补
17、，因此，B + OR = 0意义： 如B0，则外汇贮备增加。如B0，则外汇贮备减少。,26,Chinas economy： Not made in China Feb 11th 2009, From E Chinas exports dive but its trade surplus growsIMPORTS to China plunged in January, signalling that demand is shrinking alarmingly: they fell by 43.1% compared with a year earlier, worse than foreca
18、st and double the decline in December. But Chinas trade surplus, at $39.1 billion, is one of the biggest on record because a huge tumble in exports of 17.5 was dwarfed by falling imports. A recovery in Chinese exports is unlikely as the world slides deeper into an economic slump but imports may well
19、 pick upChina has resumed importing iron ore after running down stocks in recent months. Chinas economy could also get a boost from a big government stimulus package.,27,AFP,Readers comments,28,The international investment position 国际投资头寸,又称国际借贷。是指一定时点上（一般为年末）一国居民的全部对外资产和对外负债的余额。,29,Figure 2.4 U.S.
20、International Investment Position,30,Each transaction has two item, one positive and one negative, of equal value.,double-entry bookkeeping 复式记账法,positive items + negative items = 0,positive balance: surplus negative balance: deficit,31,Current account,Current account balance,trade balance,Current a
21、ccount,goods and service,income,Gifts (unilateral transfer单方面转移),32,Examples,U.S. government gives $8 million in foreign aid to the government of Egypt in the form of wheat from U.S. government.,33,Unilateral transfers,Government grantsPrivate transfer,Migrants remittances of money and goods back Charitable giving,
