1、M A Y 2 5T H 3 1S T 2 0 19T he end o f M a yC limate c hang e and w arTrump , C hina and the tec h panicH o w to u se t rees to find g oldTh e g reat j o b s b o om每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 W orld-Leading C
2、yber AIT he E conomist Ma y 2 5th 2 01 9 5C ontent s continues o v er leaf1C ontent sT he w or ld this w eek10 A round-up of politicaland business newsL eader s15 W orkThe gre at jobs boom16 Britain s prime ministerThe end of the road16 Tech and the tr ade w arCircuit bre ak er17 Climate of fe arGlo
3、bal w arming and w ar18 India s electionModi wins againL etter s20 On antibiotics , capitalgains , China, America scivil w ar , unicorns , tiesBriefing24 Labour mark etsW orking itBri tain27 May s bitter end28 P olitical ads on F ac ebook29 British Steel v Jamie sspaghetti29 P aedophile-hunters andt
4、he polic e32 Asian crick eters33 What s in a Lloyd s“Name”?34 Bagehot B etting on B orisEu ro p e35 The EU votes36 Emmanuel Macron sparty in trouble37 Protests in Pr ague37 The battle for Bremen38 Steve Bannon s troubledmonastery39 Charlemagne The perilsof hugging populistsUni ted States40 P olic e
5、technology41 V oters and the econom y42 Protecting wetlands42 Pinched lobstermen43 Locking up toddlers43 T rump s financial records44 Le xington KamalaHarris s flawsT he Americas45 Guns in Latin America46 B ello Argentina s CristinaquestionMiddle E ast its cash-rich balanc e-sheetcould survive the s
6、hock, but its shares would slump . Hundredsof smaller suppliers with rick ety financ es could go bust.The ripple eect would hurt America s allies in Asia, becausethey host factories that supply China s tech-manufacturing hubsand are home to companies that oper ate in China. In October2 017, for e xa
7、mple , components for smartphones ac counted forover 16% of e xports in Malaysia and Singapore and over 33% inTaiw an. Two T aiw anese giants , tsm c (which mak es chips) andF o x conn (which assembles devic es), str addle the fault line of thetech cold w ar , ha ving production and customers in bot
8、h Americaand China. The same is true of South K ore a s champion, Sam-sung . America s allies fac e an impossible test of loy alty .C onsumers will suer , too . U ntil now , the cost of the tr adew ar has been mask ed, because taris are paid by produc ers whoabsorb their cost or pass it on ste althi
9、ly to consumers . Now thebill could become visible . Huawei has sold 300m handsets out-side China in the past five ye ars . Their buyers may soon find thattheir phones no longer work properly . And just imagine if Ameri-cans were suddenly unable to buy Chinese-made iPhones . The cost of a rupture me
10、 ans that both sides are lik ely to backdown. Y et the battle will hasten the r ac e to develop an indige-nous capacity to supply every vital technology in Chinaand inevery aspiring power , including India. America s hold over thedigital econom y lets it enforc e its will. But by unle ashing itspowe
11、r so clumsily , it will hasten the end of its own dominanc e. 7Did clima te change cause the w ar in Syria? Or the genocide inDarfur? Obviously , that is not the whole story . Suppose Syr-ia s despot, Bashar al- Assad, or Sudan s former tyr ant, Omar al-Bashir , were to find themselves on trial in T
12、he Hague and tried toblame their country s carnage on global w arming . Such a risibledefenc e would flop . No conflict oc curs without le aders to give or-ders and soldiers to pull triggers . No atrocities are committedunless human beings choose to commit them. Nonetheless , future-gazers are right
13、 to w arnthat global w arming has made some w ars morelik ely than they would otherwise ha ve been, andwill mak e others more so in the future . It is nev-er possible to pinpoint a specific w ar and saythat it would not ha ve happened in the absenc eof climate change , just as it is impossible to sa
14、ythat a particular flood or typhoon w as caused byit. Rather , climate change is causing en viron-mental uphe a v al that destabilises regions and r aises the risk ofbloodshed (see International section). Some worry that the Arctic will be a flashpoint. As the ic e capshrinks , na to and R ussia bol
15、ster their military presenc e there .China is building a nucle ar-powered ic ebre ak er . A t the ArcticC ouncil on May 6th Mik e P ompeo , America s secretary of state ,downplayed climate change but w ax ed indignant about R ussia s“aggressive beha viour ” in reopening military bases in the re-gion
16、. If the North- W est P assage opens to shipping or enoughv aluable miner als are found bene ath Arctic w aters , e xpect a tus-sle between gre at powers for polar pre-eminenc e. But none of that is lik ely to le ad to w ar . Nucle ar-armed statesare wisely w ary of provoking e ach other too much. T
17、he biggerdanger of climate-induc ed conflict lies farther south, in hotter ,drier zones , and in volves mostly civil w ars in poor countries , notinternational ones . Some things are cle ar . A c cumulating green-house gases in the atmosphere are incre asingthe frequency and intensity of e xtremedro
18、ughts and floods in some regions . Se asonalrains and monsoons are becoming more v ari-able and less predictable . As one are a growsparched, its inhabitants encroach on land tr adi-tionally farmed or used for gr azing by others .Disputes erupt, some of which are alre ady turn-ing violent, especiall
19、y in the Sahel, a huge strip of Africa belowthe Sahar a. En vironmental stress plays a role in de adly conflictsin Burkina F aso , Chad, Cameroon, Mali, Niger , northern Nigeriaand South Sudan, not to mention non-Sahelian states such as Y e-men. As global temper atures continue to rise and the we at
20、herbecomes more err atic, such conflicts could grow more common.Sever al other factors tend to foment w ar , including poverty ,stagnation and bad government. Ethnic dierenc es , religious How to think about global w arming and w arThey are link edand that is worryingC limate of fear18 L eader s T h
21、e E conomist Ma y 2 5th 2 01 92 ze alotry and the a v ailability of miner als to loot are often as-sumed to incre ase the risk, but they typically do so only in coun-tries that are too poor , stagnant and ill-governed to k eep violenc ein check. The good news is that, as poverty has rec eded world-w
22、ide , the proportion of humankind who die in w ars and civilstrife has fallen sharply , from ne arly four per 100,000 e ach ye arin the 1980s to less than one in the past decade . The bad news isthat climate-related disruption is lik ely to get worse . And if itle ads to more conflicts , it can star
23、t a vicious cycle , sinc e w armak es regions poorer , and poverty fosters future w ars . Climate-induc ed w ar is one more re ason for governments totak e global w arming seriously . However , as A ustr alia showed onMay 18th, when it elected a coal-cuddling conserv ative govern-ment, voters are no
24、t yet willing to pay much to a vert planetaryperil. Che aper w ays to reduc e emissions are urgently needed,along with inc entives to remove carbon from the atmosphere . Alas , none of this will help end conflicts today or preventthem in the short term. F or that, poor countries need the help ofthe
25、rich to build e arly-w arning systems and pay for pe ac ek eep-ers . Outsiders should also impose sanctions on w armongers andoer aid for governments that sinc erely seek to rebuild them-selves after w ars , thereby reducing the risk of a relapse . F or everydollar spent on such intervention, roughl
26、y $ 10 of harm can bea verted, estimates P aul Dunne of the U niversity of Cape T own.This is good v alue for money , and fits well with eorts by Ameri-ca, F ranc e and others to curb jihadism in Africa. Sinc e climate change will mak e some are as uninhabitable ,people will le a ve them. Not man y
27、will move to rich countriesstarving farmers cannot aord such a costly journey . Man y morewill move to towns or cities in their own country . It mak es nosense to try to stop or discour age such migr ation, as man y gov-ernments do . Moving is a r ational w ay to adapt to a changing en-vironment. B
28、etter for governments to manage the influx, build-ing roads and schools to ac commodate the newcomers . If peoplecannot act globally in a global emergency they will ha ve to mak edo with acting locally . 7 For the second time in a row , the Bhar atiy a Janata P arty led byNarendr a Modi has swept an
29、 Indian election. As The E cono-mis t went to press , e arly projections suggested the allianc e itle ads had won well over 300 of the 545 se ats in the lower house ofparliament. The bjp itself look ed set to claim a slender majorityin its own right, of more than 272 se ats (see Asia section).To put
30、 the scale of the bjp s suc c ess in perspective , the lastpolitician to le ad a party to two suc c essive elector al majorities inIndia w as Indir a G andhi, in 197 1, at the helm of the C ongressparty . C ongress , now led by Indir a s gr andson, clawed back a lit-tle ground after its disastrous p
31、erformanc e at the previous elec-tion, in 20 14, in which it won only 44 se ats . But with a haul of per-haps 50, it remains a distant also-r an in Indian politics . In acountry where previously routine anti-incum-bency had gener ated decades of fissiparous pol-itics , the bjp appe ars to ha ve beco
32、me the natur alparty of government, just as C ongress w as in thefirst ye ars after independenc e.In vestors cheered the result, sending themain share inde x to a record high. The bjp s vic-tory holds out the prospect not just of stability ,but also of development and reform. Its mani-festo pledged
33、la vish in vestment in infr astructure , including 100new airports and 50 metro systems . By 2030, the bjp says , Indiawill be the world s third-biggest econom y (it now r anks sixth).Yet the bjp has little to say about the biggest obstacles togrowth, such as the poor education of man y work ers , t
34、he lack ofcle ar title to much of India s land and the domination of thebanking system by sclerotic state-owned firms . Its activists tendto focus on less pr actical matters , to say the le ast. It has longpromised to build a temple to the Hindu god Rama in the city ofA yodh y a, for e xample , on t
35、he site of a mosque demolished byHindu ze alots in 1992. This time around, for good me asure , itpledged to k eep women out of a big temple in the southern stateof K er ala, in contr a vention of the Supreme C ourt s orders . It alsow ants to revise the constitution to tak e aw ay special privileges
36、gr anted to India s only Muslim-majority state , Jammu Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea. T o fulfi l its mandate, AMRO focuses on three core functions: conducting macroeconomic surveillance, supporting the implementation of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM), and providing techni
37、cal assistance to members.AMRO is currently looking for candidates for two Deputy Director positions, to start work in AMRO from September 2019.DEPUTY DIRECTOR (ADMINISTRA TION)DEPUTY DIRECTOR (CMIM, STRA TEGY in fact the r ate is 2.6%. Others mak e deeper criticisms of therosy jobs numbers . Should
38、nt societies as-pire to work less , r ather than more? P eoplewho do not need to engage in w age-labourcan indulge in other , more fulfilling activ-ities . Da vid Gr aeber , an anthropologist,goes further . In “Bullshit Jobs” , a book pub-lished last ye ar which has become akin to aholy tr act for m
39、illennial socialists , heclaims that a big chunk of modern employ-ment is pointless and soul-sucking . “Hugesw athes of people , in Europe and NorthAmerica in particular , spend their entireworking lives performing tasks they se-cretly believe do not re ally need to be per-formed, ” he argues . It i
40、s hard to dismiss the feeling thatdrudgery is the pric e Japan has paid for ana ver age unemployment r ate over the pasthalf-c entury of just 3%, the lowest in theoe cd . A t the baggage-collection are a of Ha-neda airport, a woman spends her daystr aightening suitcases after they areplac ed on the
41、con veyor belt. A t an emptybar in T ok yo s fashion district a world-be at-ing gin martini (the addition of a singledrop of or ange bitters is a revelation) ismix ed by three people , who then standaround as it is drunk. Mr Gr aeber wouldsurely argue that this is less a sign of socialprogress and m
42、ore that capitalism has con-spired to turn people into drones .But societies benefit from strong labourmark ets . More work ers me ans more peoplepaying income tax and fewer rec eivingbenefits . Studies suggest that the unem-ployment r ate is positively correlated withrates of property crime and eve
43、n with viol-ent crime . Ha ving a job gives people a senseof purpose which is also good for all sorts ofsocial outcomes , including mental andph ysical he alth. And being in work mak esanother , better job e asier to get. Capitalismhas not been able to tell man y good-newsstories of late . This is o
44、ne of them. The re ason for the strength of the oe cd slabour mark et is a puzzle , however . In re-c ent ye ars man y governments ha ve loadedemployers with e xtr a costs , even as it is be-coming ever e asier to replac e people withrobots . A study in 20 13 by Carl B enedik tF rey and Michael Osbo
45、rne of Oxford U ni-versity concluded that 4 7% of jobs inAmerica were at risk of being automated.R ules ha ve prolifer ated on equal pay , anti-discrimination, he alth and safety , and ma-ternity and paternity le a ve . A cross 24 oe cdcountries for which there are long -rundata, the v alue of the m
46、inimum w age hasrisen from 44% of full-time median e arn-ings in 2000 to 50% today .Hives of industryWh y are labour mark ets so buoy ant? This isin part a cyclical phenomenon. Economicgrowth tends to push unemploymentdown. The recovery from the financial cri-sis is a decade old. In part because of
47、appro-priately lax monetary policy , America isabout to achieve its longest-ever period ofeconomic e xpansion. Me an while , linger-ing unc ertainty related to the financial cri-sis and the rise of populism may me an thatfirms are k eener on hiring sta than on de-voting large amounts of capital to i
48、n vest-ment, which is harder to undo . The post-crisis period has also been char acterised byrapid growth in the servic e sector , which ismore labour-intensive than industry . F orall these re asons it is no surprise that un-employment is relatively low . But not this low . In October 20 13 the imf
49、made economic forecasts for adv anc edeconomies for the following five ye ars . Onthe assumption that annual gdp growthwould a ver age 2.4%, they concluded thatby 20 18 the r ate of unemployment would be6.9%. It turned out that the imf w as too op-timistic on growth and too pessimistic onunemployment, which by 20 18 had fallento around 5%. That suggests it is not only acyclical phenomenon. Long -term structur-al changes to demogr aph y, technology andpolicy play an equally significant role . Tak e demogr aph y. The oe cd is ageing .Young people on a
