1、M A Y 11T H 17T H 2 0 19T he ps y c hology o f US-C hina t radeDemoc racy at ris k in Latin A meric aC aster Semen y a: a c onsequential rulingH o w c reep y is y our smar t speak er ?C ol lisio n c o u r s eA m e ric a , I ra n a n d t h e t h r ea t o f w a r每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日
2、报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 W orld-Leading Cyber AIT he E conomist Ma y 11th 2 01 9 3C ontent s continues o v er leaf1C ontent sT he w or ld this w eek8 A round-up of politicaland business newsL eader s11 America and Ir anC ollision course12 T rad
3、e talksDe al or no de al12 Latin AmericaU nder the volcano13 The Istanbul electionGoing down14 Snoop in the kitchenHow creepy is your smartspe ak er?L etter s16 On psychiatry , the EU ,ballot initiatives , Huawei,air pollution, me asles ,HellBriefing18 Latin AmericaThe 40-ye ar itchBri tain21 New le
4、ft-wing thinking22 Monarch y and media23 Homelessness inManchester23 Endless Bre xit talks24 The alpaca boom24 How Bre xit aects FDI25 The high-pressure lives ofNorth Se a divers26 Bagehot A defenc esecretary on manoeuvresEu ro p e27 Istanbul s mayor deposed28 Italy gets out of rec ession29 F ree tr
5、 ansport in T allinn29 F rench names30 R ussian tr ade unions32 Charlemagne Thepolitics of suburbiaUni ted States33 T rump v C ongress34 The r acism rec ession35 P olicing madness36 Me xican- Americans38 Le xington JaredK ushner s pe ac e planT he Americas39 What ne xt for V enezuela40 Baseball in P
6、 eruMiddle E ast it announc ed newsanctions this week, targetingiron, steel, copper and alumi-nium, which ac count foraround 10% of Ir an s e xports . P alestinian militants in G azafired hundreds of rock ets intosouthern Isr ael , killing fourIsr aelis . Isr ael responded bypounding G aza with air
7、strik es ,killing 27 P alestinians . It w asthe de adliest fighting sinc e20 14. A truc e w as finally bro-k ered by Egypt.South Africans voted in agener al election that w as held25 ye ars after the end of apart-heid. P olls suggest that theAfrican National C ongress ,which has ruled sinc e 1994,wo
8、uld win again, althoughwith its smallest-ever majority .The W orld He alth Organisationis to incre ase the number ofv ac cinations it administers inan eort to contain the spre adof the Ebola virus in the Demo-cr atic R epublic of C ongo .A Ne w Y or k state of mindBr azil s president, Jair B olso-na
9、ro , canc elled a trip to NewYork after some groups and themayor , Bill de Blasio , criticisedhis r acist and homophobicremarks and hostility tow ardsgreenery . Mr B olsonaro w asdue to rec eive a person-of-theye ar aw ard from the Br azilian-American Chamber of C om-merc e. Sever al sponsors hadpul
10、led out of the event. The U nited States revok edsanctions it had plac ed onChristopher Figuer a, the he adof Venezuela s intelligenc eservic e, who rec ently turnedagainst the regime led by Nico-ls Maduro and fled the coun-try . The T rump administr ationsaid this w as an inc entive forother senior
11、 V enezuelan o-cials who ha ve been sanc-tioned to support Juan Guaid ,the opposition le ader , in hiseort to oust Mr Maduro . Laurentino C ortizo , the c entre-left s candidate , w as declaredthe winner in P anama s une x-pectedly close presidentialelection. He campaigned most-ly on tackling corrup
12、tion. T he r o y al pr oclamationDonald T rump in vok ed e x ec-utive privilege in his fight withDemocr ats in C ongress , whow ant the administr ation torele ase the unredacted versionof the Mueller report. Thatdidnt stop the House JudiciaryC ommittee from holdingW illiam Barr , the attorney-gener
13、al, in contempt. W ithrelations souring between thetwo br anches of government,Americas s tre asury secretary ,Steven Mnuchin, e arlier re-fused to rele ase Mr T rump s taxreturns to Democr ats, arguingthat the “unprec edented”request w as being made underan obscure law . A feder al court found that
14、Ohio s congressional districtshad been dr awn to fa vour theR epublicans and ordered thatthey be remade for the 2020election. It is the second rec entruling to strik e down partisangerrymandering, after asimilar case in Michigan. T he E conomist Ma y 11th 2 01 9 T he w or ld this w eek 92Still in th
15、e stoning ageThe sultan of Brunei respond-ed to critics of the harsh Islam-ic penal code he rec ently pro-mulgated by suggesting that itsmost controversial punish-ment, de ath by stoning for se xoutside marriage , would not inpr actic e be carried out. But thelaw remains on the books , andhe made no
16、 commitmentregarding other gruesomepunishments , such as amputa-tion for theft. King V ajir alongk orn of Thai-land w as crowned in an elab-or ate three-day sequenc e ofc eremonies . Shortly after-w ards , the Election C ommis-sion announc ed the ocialresults of the election held inMarch. It altered
17、 the formulafor allocating se ats , therebydepriving the oppositioncoalition of a majority in thelower house of parliament. Ocials in P akistan con-firmed that Asia Bibi, a Chris-tian woman whose de athsentenc e on trumped-up char-ges of insulting the ProphetMuhammad w as overturned inOctober , had
18、been allowed tole a ve the country . The quash-ing of Ms Bibi s blasphem ysentenc e by the supreme courthad prompted protests fromIslamic hardliners . She w asremanded in custody untilJanuary , when a legal challengeto her acquittal w as rejected. The government of M y anmarpardoned some 6,000 priso
19、n-ers to mark Burmese New Y e ar ,including two journalistsworking for R euters who hadbeen sentenc ed to seven ye arsimprisonment after reve alingdetails of a massacre of Muslimcivilians by the arm y.North K ore a tested a series ofshort-r ange missiles . Althoughthis did not bre ak the country sse
20、lf-imposed mor atorium ontests of long -r ange missilesand nucle ar we apons , it w asinterpreted as a signal that theNorth w as chafing at the slowprogress of arms-control talkswith America.Not the right s r esultTurk ey s elector al board suc-cumbed to weeks of pressurefrom the ruling party andann
21、ulled an election in Marchfor the mayor of Istanbul,narrowly won by the opposi-tion candidate , EkremImamoglu. Mr Imamoglu hasbeen removed from oc e andreplac ed by an appointedmayor . A fresh election hasbeen called for June 23rd. Man yobservers saw this as a de adlyblow to Turkish democr acy .Denm
22、ark called an election forJune 5th. The Social Democr atsare e xpected to tak e back pow-er from the c entre-right, large-ly because their le ader hasechoed hawkish policies onmigr ation, for instanc e agree-ing that the polic e should beallowed to strip asylum-seek-ers of jewellery and cash.Britain
23、 s C onserv ative P artysuered huge losses in localelections. The drubbing, losing44 councils and 1,334 se ats , w asthe he a viest sinc e 1995. Smallanti-Bre xit parties were thebeneficiaries , as Labour failedto capitalise . T ory mp s calledfor the prime minister to re-sign. Theresa May , however
24、 ,compared herself to Liverpool,a football te am that made aspectacular comeback in agame against Barc elona thisweek, overturning a 3-0 deficit.Mrs May s Bre xit de al is also 3-0down, after thumping defe atsin the House of C ommons; buther te am has been scoring owngoals for ye ars .10 T he E cono
25、mist Ma y 11th 2 01 9T he w or ld this w eek BusinessAmerican and Chinese negoti-ators wrestled over a tr adede al . Donald T rump s thre at,back ed by senior Americanocials , to incre ase taris onChinese goods if an agreementw as not re ached rattled stock-mark ets; pric es ha ve bounc edback this
26、ye ar in part on re-newed optimism about tr ade .Me an while , data showed thatChinese e xports fell une xpect-edly in April; e xports to Ameri-ca were 13% lower than thesame month in 20 18.No Moor eMr T rump tweeted thatStephen Moore had with-dr awn from consider ation for ase at at the F eder al R
27、 eserve . MrT rump s choic e of Mr Moore , atax -slashing w arrior , hadraised conc erns , even amongR epublicans , that he w as tryingto plant political supporters inthe c entr al bank. Mr Moore w asalso in hot w ater for a numberof dispar aging remarks aboutwomen he made in the past.The Danish pre
28、ss reported thatThomas B orgen, the formerchief e x ecutive of Dansk eBank , had been charged inrelation to the suspected mon-ey-laundering of up to 200bn($224bn) through Dansk e soper ations in Estonia. MrB orgen resigned last ye ar . He isthe first person connected tothe case to be indicted, repor
29、t-edly for a failure of oversight. A former bank er at GoldmanSachs ple aded not guilty at acourt in New Y ork to in volve-ment in the embezzlement of$2. 7bn from Malaysia s 1mdbdevelopment fund. R oger Ngreturned to America to fac e thecharge; he has also been indict-ed in Malaysia. His formermanag
30、er is aw aiting sentenc eafter ple ading guilty to partici-pating in the scheme , whichchannelled money from 1mdbbond sales to Malaysian o-cials . Goldman has said ite xpects to rec eive a hefty fineonc e the in vestigation is over . Anheuser-Busch InB ev con-firmed that it w as consideringlisting i
31、ts Asia oper ations inHong K ong. The brewer woulduse the proc eeds to pay downsome of the enormous debtpile it amassed during a spreeof tak eovers .Siemens also said it wouldrestructure itself . The Germanconglomer ate plans to spin oits struggling power and gasunit, combined with its wind-power as
32、sets , in a stockmark etflotation. It hopes that bycutting the cord now it willa void the same fate that befellGener al Electric. Siemensw ants to focus on the morepromising ende a vour ofconnecting factories and citiesto the internet. The oper ator of Britain s powergrid reported that the countrywe
33、nt a whole week withoutusing coal to gener ateelectricity , the first time thathas happened sinc e the firstcoal-fired power station w asopened in 188 2. Britain getsmost of its power now fromgas , nucle ar and wind sourc es .The problems mounted atKr aft Heinz . U nder a subpoenafrom the Securities
34、 andEx change C ommission for itsac counting pr actic es , the foodcompan y said it would ha ve torestate e arnings for three ye arsafter uncovering mistak es inits procurement proc edures .Kr aft Heinz also disclosed thatthe se c has e xpanded the scopeof its inquiry and is scrutinis-ing a $ 15bn w
35、rite-down thatw as announc ed in F ebruary . F ac ebook said that Londonwould be the base for staworking on its new mobile-payments servic e , which willbe a v ailable later this ye ar onWhats App . The social-mediacompan y chose London be-cause of the a v ailability offintech work ers from countrie
36、swhere Whats App is widelyused, such as India. Despiteha ving 1.5bn users worldwide ,the messaging app currentlyemploys only 400 people . ikea opened its first store inc entr al P aris , part of a plan toplac e more of its retail spac e inurban are as . The store is ikea sfirst in a city c entre to
37、oer afull r ange of items (r ather thanjust kitchen-planning), aconc ept that it intends torepe at in other cities aroundthe world. The P aris store isabout four times smaller thanthe v ast suburban w arehousesthat ikea s customers are usedto; it will also eventually rentfurniture to ever more cost-
38、conscious buyers . Lyft rele ased its first quarterlye arnings report sinc e floatingon the stockmark et. The ride-hailing compan y reportedrevenues of $776m for the firstthree months of the ye ar , up by95% compared with the samequarter last ye ar . But its costsballooned as it in vested he a vilyi
39、n new aspects of its business ,such as scooter rentals . L yft sunderlying oper ating lossnarrowed slightly to $2 16m (itsover all net loss of $1.1b n i n -cluded a charge for stock -basedcompensation). W orried aboutthe lack of profits , in vestorssent its share pric e down by11% in a day. Wheels o
40、f for tuneAhe ad of its e agerly aw aitedipo , Uber had to na vigate aone-day strik e by drivers inAmerica, Britain and A ustr alia(the action w as joined by driv-ers from L yft). The work erssought publicity for their claimto better pay and conditions .They urged passengers not touse their apps , l
41、ik ening it tocrossing a digital pick et line . L eader s 11The dru ms of w ar are be ating onc e again. An American air-cr aft-carrier strik e group is ste aming tow ards the P ersianGulf , joined by b -52 bombers , after unspecified thre ats fromIr an. John B olton, the national security adviser ,
42、 says an y attackon America or its allies “will be met with unrelenting forc e” . InTehr an, me an while , President Hassan R ouhani says Ir an will nolonger abide by the terms of the de al signed with America andother world powers , whereby it agreed to strict limits on its nuc-le ar progr amme in
43、return for economic relief . Ir an now lookspoised to resume its slow but ste ady march tow ards the bombgiving American hawks lik e Mr B olton further griev anc es .Just four ye ars ago America and Ir an were on a dierent path.After Bar ack Obama oered to e xtend a hand if Ir an s le aders “un-clen
44、ched their fist” , the two sides came together , le ading to thenucle ar de al. That promised to set back the Ir anian nucle ar pro-gr amme by more than a decade , a prize in itself , and just possiblyto bre ak the cycle of thre at and counter-thre at that ha ve doggedrelations sinc e the Ir anian r
45、evolution 40 ye ars ago .Today hardliners are asc endant on both sides (see Middle Eastthen Ir an did the same to Americanforc es in the Middle East. Ocials on both sidessay their intent is pe ac eful, but who can believethem? America s ac cusations that Ir an has beenplanning to attack American for
46、c es or its alliesin the Middle East are suspiciously unspecific.V iolenc e by Ir an s pro xies may be just the sort ofprovocation that le ads America to launch a mil-itary strik e. Mr P ompeo onc e suggested that he preferred Ameri-can sorties to nucle ar talks with Ir an. Mr B olton penned an arti
47、-cle in 20 15 in the New Y ork Times entitled “ To Stop Ir an s B omb ,B omb Ir an” . Now even Mr R ouhani appe ars to agree that the w ayforw ard lies with provocation and escalation.A nucle ar Ir an would spur prolifer ation across the MiddleEast. B ombing would not destroy Ir anian nucle ar know-
48、how , butit would drive the progr amme underground, making it impossi-ble to monitor and thus all the more dangerous . The only perma-nent solution is renewed negotiation. Mr T rump , a harsh critic ofAmerica s foreign w ars , therefore needs to k eep the lik es of MrB olton in check. He will fac e
49、pressure from hardline politiciansat home and opposition in the region, not le ast from Isr ael. Doing de als , though, is a T rump tr ademark. The president hasshown an ability to change direction abruptly , as with North K o-re a. A new w ar is not in his interest, even if being hard on Ir an ispart of his br and. The Europe ans can help him by urging Ir an tok eep within the de aland condemning it if it le a ves . Mr R ou-hani, who spurned Mr T rump in the past, now says he is willingto talk with the de al s other signatories if today
