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4过去推将来.doc

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1、1.Even assuming that Plainesville residents are strongly interested in eating health foods and health-related products, the recommendation rests on two additional assumptions: (1) that this interest will continue in the foreseeable future, and (2) that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over othe

2、r mechants that sell similar products. Untill the vice president substantiates both assumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesville would be profitable.161.The argument does not indicate how much time passed between the two studies. During a sufficiently long interim period the demo

3、graphic makeup of Leeville might have changed, or the reading habits of the first study studys respondents might have changed. In other words, the longer the time between studies the less reliable the conclusion that respondents in the first study misrepresented their reading habits.208.The authors

4、projection also ignores the possibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resulting in an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliances are used in area homes. Without taking into account these possibilities, the author cannot pers

5、uade me that total demand for electricity will not increase in the future.A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existing plants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the areas electric needs. The author fails to account

6、 for the possibility that the old plants are themselves less energy efficient than a new plants using new technology would be, or that the old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, this assertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the

7、future, thereby increasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existing plants can meet.236.The authors inference that incentives which were effective in the past will also be effective in the future rests on poor assumption that during the last 18 months all conditions upon which their

8、 effectiveness depend have remained unchanged. Perhaps the general economy is expected to turn down. Or perhaps other cities have recently begun to provide similar incentives. Indeed, the fact that Dillton is already providing these incentives might actually portend failure for Beauville, which might need to devise even stronger incentives to convince businesses to move to Beauville rather than Dillton.

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