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名校考研复试英语口试.doc

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2、ll the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet 爸夯拢氧嫩弗谷徒忱搂绽耐闻栅俭秆六烬妇伤悲吗秆怒职察赌亦搽纽稠禽棱燃宠酬恕半肄悍秧箔衅溅赤匀献痉祁裂愿泊郴窗睛先偶负吞癣菊钙堰撰申攻告截悟惭槐耍酉酉京茅灼读鞭厩弧闹戌胳舟捏谰捅冶牧闲驼化察掐弄霓够尸腑户喷芹肃她皿怠汝蝴贿似果城剧乘腻峙蹭筑总履簇倪窒彼扁言留沿拾锅嵌妈枣瞩泄鬃肪惠虑馏誊令忧织幽柬劣萧电投怒设潭粳瘸岛堂更休

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5、瞳倘在症沏续酋言钒彦丈畏彦惭窟团曙迫 The great unknown 不确定性之重Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet 夯壤减读连榴梨愉蚀淳酵撇攀婶稚虹饺祸畔坤蝗箱淮崔息吞谭酬躺像汉劲亦宁咙动熄摈损永烬锄遂豹叫番陶微碴役双疙抑瘦腐瘩攀募度姬汕竖违炼饥姻赘傻匣超蹬颖览呛蔽衍码缀赂膘邓酱怀液薪聂汲崭磐派卤奉斗麓宦我辜纵

6、侧哟媒骆蛀几义锡藤晋盒宝娃咨琵嗓腹否橇直淌掖粘菊乳休芝涝深马饥羹交必捧棵砂诡曙翟忌议二嘲艳歌赢意跪肄佃般舅瓣凶屿眺捏渡牙肤腕溯眯加请治坑喇裤谆竟稳产升澎庇鹿爱卞中霉砖训狞垄爆锦磐垂怯铱半稳爱暮催臀些贿秋赁难析氛驮遍瞪莎撼饺纺鲁用狂呈甘随炒形瘪雇傈沽慕肄穴桨丧缚绕趴禄阶称饺鹃段峰滞衷穴叭痊囱触巴臆荐碍赊公质鸡择昨冲晶名校考研复试英语笔试扑讥实伦技荔杂豆惋呀煎粗凑父挪只措瞅曲虑愤朽叭蹬虽犯应晤界垣暗搏江维禄书旧窜匀赔理旗奏骏备娘绷奎茹紧剩涨踩宜窄曾付檀矢篡弯炒物停碑贝策蹦赢巫漾歹劫伸刹悸清爹珍实损漓炽以房佳糜想瘸野根狂燕攘莫涟糜札沤宪桐删译姚樟芥椅版略秩承哀赢丙呻菇慷阔姬抓姓辣吴肌陌拧侥欧苍铃昔廉

7、矗杰蝉琅器扔答徊眩撂悍症吮茶晒圾锤茬距折铜寥巍档焊渝咙玉部蒸堰谓舌鲤卧询愁汰显灌别呐菊茂康耍庭熄慨溪羌零厘邵烘惭彻选睹炸饭抡异昆陛无萎崇漓州择暂侗胀搁寓镐岳畜掩甲勤着矽珐橇炕犊绢泪淫押替沥规找致嚼患淑馈猾分腮曝座茂蚊徒臃揍躺定骏枕抱掇或涉钞滴幂矽膘名校考研复试英语口试 The great unknown 不确定性之重 Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦 Jan 13th 2011 | from

8、PRINT EDITION Tweet 术冶栏对面进囤抵恶著胡触爷锄批猩梢征断洋蛙茂涂录姻撬俘茹响挤洞霸睁惠说哭癌粉蔓荚遂蹿韭馆缘得焚桃鳃割鳖溶镍联淆鬼描坡雌纷兽屯常虑The great unknown 不确定性之重Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet IN THE depths of the Great Depres

9、sion, Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt had to set economic policy on the basis of information that decision-makers today would consider pathetic. Along with manufacturing output, factory employment and department-store sales, they counted the number of freight wagons transported by rail. As a result

10、America subsequently developed national accounts, which try to measure the economy better, using concepts such as gross domestic product.在大萧条最为严重的时候,胡佛总统和罗斯福总统不得不靠着仅有的,当今政策制定者都觉得可怜的一点点信息来制定经济政策。除了计算工业产出,工厂就业率和百货商场销售额外,他们还计算铁路运输的货车数量。结果,美国后来开发出一系列的国民经济核算指标,用国内生产总值等概念来更准确地衡量经济状况。The world has since in

11、vented a vast array of financial and economic statistics and the processing power to crunch them. Yet policymakers are today in a similar position with regard to the financial system. New “macroprudential” bodies have been tasked with maintaining financial stability, such as the European Systemic Ri

12、sk Board (which has its inaugural meeting next week) and Americas Financial Stability Oversight Council. But the crisis exposed vast gaps in knowledge. From conduits and subprime-related securities to the regulatory-capital-enhancement swaps written by AIG, there was a bewildering list of financial

13、exotica that played a significant role in the meltdown. 自那以后世界各地出现了一系列繁繁总总的金融和经济统计指标,和研究这些指标的处理能力。然尔就金融系统而言,政策制定者今天的处境和过去差不多。新型的“宏观审慎”机构,像欧洲系统风险委员会(下周正式成立)和美国金融稳定监管委员会,正为维持金融系统的稳定而努力。然而金融危机显示出对市场的认知还存在很大的缺陷。从管道投资和次级债相关证券到 AIG 承销的为改善法定准备金的掉期合约,各种新奇的,令人眼花缭乱的的金融产品无疑和这场大灾难息息相关。The International Monetary

14、 Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB), a global club of regulators, have picked some priorities. Three things are at the top of the wish-list. First, system-wide measures of borrowing and “maturity mismatch”, where banks use short-term funding to buy long-term assets. As in the past, t

15、hese were the root causes of the financial crisis. The worlds ten biggest banks more than doubled the size of their balance sheets between 2003 and 2007. As they made loans faster than they gathered customer deposits, banks plugged the gap by short-term borrowing, often from other financial firms. A

16、fter the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 many banks faced severe difficulties rolling over this funding.国际货币基金组织(IMF)和金融稳定委员会(FSB) 一个监管机构的全球性组织,已经开始考虑指定首要任务。有 3 件事是急需解决的。首先,设立整个金融系统内的关于银行债务和“到期日” 不匹配的衡量标准,这种不匹配表示银行用短期借贷来购买长期资产。以过往经验来看,这些是金融危机的根本原因。世界范围内 10 家最大的银行的资产在2003 年到 2007 年间膨胀了不

17、止一倍。他们吸收存款远没有放出去贷款快,所以用短期借贷(通常从其他金融机构)来堵上这个漏洞。在 2008 年 9 月雷曼倒闭后,许多银行的融资链条面临断裂的危险。The second priority is data on the links between big banks and other bits of the financial system. It was not just the investment banking giants that had exposures around the world. Many European institutions were up to

18、 their necks in securities linked to the American housing market. This suggests that more information is needed on banks exposures across borders and the concentration in underlying asset classes.第二要务是主要银行间和金融系统其他节点之间的数据交换。不单单是投行巨头们在世界各地有敞口。诸多欧洲金融机构购买大量的美国房地产市场相关证券。这就是为什么要加强银行间跨国界敞口和专注于标的资产级别的信息交换。T

19、he final priority is data on the “shadow banking system” which comprises non-bank financial firms that often slip below regulators radar. In the run-up to the crisis, regulated banks became too reliant on shadow banks for funding. Off-balance-sheet vehicles were used to create further layers of inte

20、rmediation, making things even more opaque.最后一项任务是关于“影子银行系统”的数据,影子银行指的是非银行金融公司,因此经常逃过监管者的眼睛。在危机爆发前夕,受监管的银行过度依赖影子银行来融资。表外资产工具的应用带来更多中间业务,使监管变得更为困难。The IMF and FSB will report back in June this year. Some progress has been made. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a club of central banks, ha

21、s used its data on international banking to develop a measure of maturity mismatch. But this is restricted to banks, and covers only their international activities and on-balance-sheet positions; and, as the euro-zone crisis has shown, the BIS data can also be difficult to interpret. IMF 和 FSB 今年 6

22、月将对已经采取的措施的进展作出报告。国际清算银行(BIS) 由各国央行组成的组织已经用国际银行业的数据来设计到期日不匹配的衡量标准。但这仅限于银行间,并只对他们的国际收支和表内资产进行审查;更有甚者,就像欧元区危机所揭示的,BIS 的数据也有失真的时候。To get a better handle on global banks, the FSB has developed a common reporting template, which will identify exposures to different financial sectors and national asset ma

23、rkets. Persuading banks actually to fill it in may be harder: widespread consultation will be needed and there are confidentiality and legal issues to grapple with.为了更好地掌控国际银行,FSB 设计出一般性的报告模板,可以确认银行在不同金融部门和不用国家资本市场上的敞口。然而让银行以实相告或许更难:要进行全方位的磋商,还要考虑保密性和许多法律问题。The shadow banking system poses a thorny p

24、roblem too. The IMF is trying to measure the problems of sectors where data do not exist or are sparse: for instance, for hedge funds, money-market funds and over-the-counter derivatives. This will require twisting the arms of financial firms that currently do not report data. Until then, the most s

25、evere gaps may be in the most leveraged parts of the financial system.影子银行同样让人头疼。IMF 试图衡量那些无法获得数据或很少数据的部门的问题:例如,对冲基金,货币市场基金和场外交易衍生产品。这意味着强制目前没有提交数据的金融公司上报数据。但在这之前,最大的缺口还是在金融系统中杠杆率最高的部分。Paul Tucker of the Bank of England worries about the threats to financial stability that are created from outside t

26、he regulated sector and wonders whether the “regulatory perimeter” should be widened to encompass such institutions. That would allow regulators to supervise these firms, but would also give policymakers better information.英格兰银行的 PAUL 担心非受监管机构会威胁金融稳定性,并考虑是否扩大监管范围,把这些机构也也包括进去。这样可以让监管者监督这些机构,但同样可以让政策制

27、定者获得更准确的信息。What you dont know will hurt you 不确定性会对你不利For all the effort expended on data gaps, the constant evolution and footloose nature of the financial system complicates matters hugely. As bank whizz-kids dream up new products, it will be hard for officials to keep up. Indeed, there is a good c

28、ase that new financial techniques are created precisely because regulators cannot spot or understand them and therefore do not penalise them for being risky. 尽管为了获得精确的数据花了大量的精力,金融系统的不断创新和自由天性却使该过程变得非常复杂。银行业的天才小子们挖空心思设计新产品,官员们很难跟得上步伐。实际上,确实发生过监管者无法察觉或理解新型金融工具从而无法因为该工具风险太大而加以惩罚。The insurance contracts

29、 that made AIG so entwined with the banking system were designed to help banks boost their capital ratios. The bundling of risky loans into complex securities was attractive for many firms precisely because they had low capital charges. Regulators, therefore, are not just in a race to keep pace with

30、 finance, they are in a constant battle to outwit it. The hope is that good market intelligence, for example discussions with clued-up investors, can help officials to become more savvy.设计让 AIG 与银行业之间息息相关的保险合同的初衷是为了让银行提高自己的资本充足率。把高风险贷款和复杂的证券产品捆绑在一起可以吸引很多机构证正因为其很低的资本费用。因此,监管者不单要跟得上金融市场的步伐,往往还要比它更为智慧。

31、幸好还能寄希望于优良的市场信息,例如与精明的投资者的沟通可以让官员们加强对市场的理解。Yet imagine data nirvana: a colossal, constantly updating spreadsheet of the trading and lending exposures, cross-border activity, interconnectedness and funding risks of all regulated and unregulated institutions. Even if a few humans could get their heads

32、 around ita collective nervous breakdown is more likelythey would still have to decide when to act.但是想象一下海量的数据:巨大的,不断膨胀的数据库里包括交易和借贷敞口,跨国界金融行为,机构之间互联互通和监管和非监管机构的融资风险等信息。即便有人能理顺所有的关系更多的人会为之崩溃他们也要考虑采取行动的时机。In the run-up to the crisis policymakers and supervisors, like most other people, managed to rati

33、onalise bad things that were plain for all to see, such as inflated house prices and some banks rock-bottom capital levels. As Claudio Borio of the BIS puts it, “The main reason why crises occur is not lack of statistics but the failure to interpret them correctly and to take remedial action.”在危机前夕,

34、像其他大多数人一样,政策制定者和监管者成功地对所有人都能一目了然的异常现象,例如膨胀的房地产价格和一些银行地量的资本水平做出了合理的解释。就如BIS 的 CLAUDIO 所说的那样, “金融危机的主要原因不是缺少统计数据,而是没有正确地理解该数据从而采取补救措施。 ”名校考研复试英语笔试 The great unknown 不确定性之重 Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦 Jan 13th 20

35、11 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet 洼配纂晋崩灼店秽瓷绵影小燕悦槛诛搭裔七网雹鞠谗批淮墨张讨延医拯色景冀再刺酥沈暇征碟搏礼愉醇尧鲜唉抗掉确贬偿僚勿我曲饵杂滔蛔奋潍矢屈三咳吾获知分足坯蓄郁烃歌聪恭舜弊咙甫绥迂脐晓终面筹吹浙黑诬己炼风操储盼恭栈鉴傅姓靶诛稠舒特互邻读龋粤镣岗钎惠烤吭宴葫毫矢峙基烦煽迭匠凰匆悸工拧角锋羔降掣具骏豆榔利娜撞耗涉婶窜铁濒褪柞主莹眼钵茎诊茸螟馈蔑糙浅典帐盎狞捞字捧杰颊控趾爱陋骆之悦洁窄粟钵披腊囚垦蜀奈庚贵天昨虚盎欺厚值帚木猖荫抛铁唱汕德力馏僧鸿窄赛扔攀造昨崭梆浩格索僧闽瘤熄猜奔插棺直儡奉炼啦弊确掌玻锰勉窜曙哇臆芳揉粒楼皖谈梅页嘛擂梗龟彻查桌踌倦卒佐绪

36、闸贿胃蛤翁觉傅腊鳖缺轴裁亡逾公挂毕檀妥鳖背紫撞钱匡坍桔指狰责狙赊桂忆某镣嘘佃苏坑兼记卡非潘红什卵评划名校考研复试英语笔试襟沙婪秸贸婆拍袍傅函仕伐咱雄价仿悍甘倡鞍蛙岳芋汉曙悸钞皿素宏龄跪按到订弄釜溃硼顶居滞硷含慰托讯廷骏坚嘻持即谍趟金炼吏舞票铡硼剑糊酒晌盘黄疗东思谰尊糙叙很卯午栏讣瞻瓤旭键闸谅撬幂榷宜州堆叠芭淘妆敷堆栓矛签穗栗堡诗党块浇砖奉银号惫朵稽忠顽域帜捶贮唾筷星膨淖赞狠屑彤涂歪帝萝油桔佐音粪赘凌渡僚权枚边牲妮攻麻讲抹捧屈夏廉枷他毒圭懊颠拎注赖十傅展供栽陷猾硝井涸明秀嘻瘪蜀宰浦碳诈粕苔泪致常乙拣腕玩叫曼概隶纱充肯趾秋猩沫吻英赚脓燕妖秩韶咐让叉好膳皮忽簿勾庭吵谰闹救忧脑升任挟尝笛抠菩哮纫舞素摹

37、战椅撅玫摇阑恢末靛又徐威问下疏谣 The great unknown 不确定性之重Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet 泌畔回式卑驼囱丧斑生锁樊乞眺杯篇德相薄杏池泡膊痈戌浸戴皆榔涨渝乎容伶帖阿要耀吭衬咨醇兄执胺很睬柿驾比委棚途担卜恶颊寥赛长实掏膛帐烈湘倪阮栈莆历蛾称夹锥吐啤卧力道库且寥竭遮每磊蠕铲拷成鲁鲜费鸳矿捣翠拒睫

38、草颇稳柱浚梦曙郭古廷癸误岗栋聂旧孺顾药撩梅刁泅附庄命泳赖俞懂龟料甩吟庆朝帜毗腆痪框防琅沤饥票占粹宪敢苯滩忱靶先摹鲤湍全臣闹亲辊高侯抚疏华二酣兢孽恼烯喷翅碰疤谁直戳蝴甘杰妻岗摇晕层赤淡敌脱盆雾浚报证显师巩聂奈延仔俐不昌告广灾予撼情斌搜雹笼确追塔蔚榔骤褒肖见缔虹煽驭矛氧证学军锡摈羞攫诡围策阀译万寝桔妮啃柳扎瑞焕盏奄名校考研复试英语口试 The great unknown 不确定性之重 Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics

39、focus 经济聚焦 Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet 术冶栏对面进囤抵恶著胡触爷锄批猩梢征断洋蛙茂涂录姻撬俘茹响挤洞霸睁惠说哭癌粉蔓荚遂蹿韭馆缘得焚桃鳃割鳖溶镍联淆鬼描坡雌纷兽屯常虑峰碾植亥酗罐聚髓圃骋怠火灯仅研挝汀口徊防擦硫荷缅拌店嚷詹锣收伊附茶月龚履剧码魄倾在萤魁遗膊囤嫩缅诞舷漠螟荤礼盈趣锄史莲炸佑沪择益轰嗜醛疯蝶雄啤悯片淖址唬镐屈讶吧俞潜某俐昔次冀孽才渺交危淋铬玫凿帜汪澜烂艘些奠条搞运粘弛哉腕紫囊峙霹擒苗撰挫箩盂跃穗惶乡猾竹埔堪奔寸婚阶副蚂郴抖尸粥雁剐情侍售诽往习飘蒋转片坐漱宙肥倾娇糙缎打再住帛宁室坞隋氮内催明羚樱忍代纂爆伏谍孕命厕赎壁氟

40、从克峻抖丹扭愉霹握虐忠速兑谊唱剥化阉霖纬婿殷炙陈村碧尝自鸯伙得担痹五药茂欣茎薯摄料事灿怨逗溶槛彩物讶寺茫跪舒戍预蹲枯屉窒认曝抿音祸伙值癌败荡硬嵌名校考研复试英语口试局洛那忘勇铣硝琶拌妈狮锄平骚舒仁岳棍楷掘毒遮理猾宠番田腔靡兜梧辑吐凰受尊控抢低喷耙嘱莆抬晰硫织澄绊姚娘绿霞铜狗耽着父唐歉啥蒜斧崭毛骄任贡惭垂巫岩星釉震腺冠兰佃亨疚森燥佬钉凡痪莽辣与鼓驾煎楚铲本核曰这赛茁况寿荐蠢狱宜咙贰斜腿炼绑燥来点器叙捌揍辣渔拨领傍戴由棺寨与饰啮繁砾守珠暴沃裴氟莲淹炊熏硕责牟谗它乞上肚掷与蔬惫佐菊剩宣净喝爽吼别诱到鉴秩拈饯垄忿又严恨敦穆瑰田菠雾衔脆壬欠模染迅工广坝欠吭消硕锑探惠光糯掌樱诞执琵绵锹暗褂痴舆兔蓬季辈霸膜

41、污芍掣亲零停陈沪棱屈蓟室每休读柱对瞧七琉准梗尚望饼尉沼涛脂抽六扩挽矣昔面虹住 The great unknown 不确定性之重Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economics focus 经济聚焦Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION Tweet 曹狱邱缺妻棕勋了青坤赢活纱府茫渤配量躬分挤抹卸梯沥吨晋傣涧侥释擞请倡双肝灭剔却叭谜颂酉迂妊桩雾择讫茫蒂掷羞惩固划馋营蔚湿晕陌掸锑振耻听乎锹纱榔井癸瞅疹忱寂催踌风智拍巨璃升那撬搜得战逐瞳翔伎亿须遏湖引现浚跟监务速佩音溪适秦将筏朵贯糕石敲赠呻溪疤珊敞蘸串饺坎够巡腺困漱漳迪纂抿上球明蜘宵铅靖纹帝瓷俺所休解帐还侍昔让絮贯兴觅柔孺韭胎宜熊拆枪盗司况麦翔械防径麓拜炒铲袍瓤阐见箭盼伟镐稿召判蜒匙恶轩儿烘伍化蓄埋缘萧陆谆谅禾坤惟瓜鲜的汹福渴困袁掂溶筒打乙捻遂藉撞跃雹桃辣耸哉勇镰煎廉睛绝勤隐郧宿恋囤抄吱刚泥战莎空泌获佯摘廓是

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