1、全球零售巨头收入持续增长 德勤全球预测零售业将面临数字化鸿沟挑战Global Powers of Retailing 2016Navigating the new digital divideGlobal Powers of Retailing 2016 3ContentsIntroduction 4 Global economic outlook 5 Navigating the new digital divide 10 Top 250 Global Powers of Retailing 12 Top 250 highlights 20 Top 10 highlights 23 Geog
2、raphic analysis 24 Product sector analysis 28 Fastest 50 31 Top 50 e-retailers 34 Q ratio analysis 40 Study methodology and data sources 44 Endnotes 46 Contacts 47Global Powers of Retailing 20164 Welcome to Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limiteds (“Deloitte Global”) 19th Global Powers of Retailing report.
3、 This report identifies the 250 largest retailers around the world based on publicly available data for fiscal 2014 (encompassing companies fiscal years ended through June 2015) and analyzes their performance based on geographic region, primary product sector, e-commerce activity and other factors.
4、The report also provides a look at the worlds 50 largest e-retailers, an outlook for the global economy and an analysis of market capitalization in the retail industry, as well as an introduction to and executive summary of findings from the forthcoming Deloitte Global publication Navigating the new
5、 digital divide: A global summary of findings from nine countries on digital influence in retail.Global Powers of Retailing 2016 5Global economic outlookIn the world of retailing, much attention has lately been focused on the competitive threat to stores coming from online retailing, the challenge o
6、f cybersecurity, and the difficulty in deciphering the tastes and price sensitivities of an increasingly fragmented consumer market. Yet through all of these and other issues, one thing remains constant. That is the considerable impact on retailers of economic strength and weakness, of inflation and
7、 deflation, and of currency and asset price movements. This section examines the current and anticipated economic environment, with the goal of distilling what it means for the worlds leading retailers and their suppliers. Key economic issues that influence retailers Currency movementsIn the past ye
8、ar, the value of the US dollar has risen strongly against most major currencies. This was driven by low oil prices, the relative strength of the US economy, expectations of tighter US monetary policy, and the easing of monetary policy in Europe and Japan. The result has been disinflationary pressure
9、 in the US, weakness in the US manufacturing sector, weakness of US corporate profits, stronger export growth in Europe and Japan, and serious challenges for emerging markets. As for the latter, the downward pressure on emerging market currencies has compelled local central banks to tighten monetary
10、 policy, the result being slower economic growth. Moreover, the rapid accumulation of dollar-denominated debt in emerging countries means that dollar appreciation boosts the risk of default. This could potentially hurt the financial sector in emerging markets. For retailers, the strength of the US d
11、ollar has meant increased purchasing power for US consumers and rising import prices for consumers in other locations especially those in emerging markets.Oil pricesIn the past year, oil prices have plummeted. This resulted from a sharp increase in US shale oil production, a decision by Saudi Arabia
12、 to boost output, and relatively weak demand in a variety of markets including Europe, Japan, and major emerging markets. The result has been disinflationary pressure in most countries, a sharp rise in the value of the dollar, and a boost to consumer spending power in major markets. Going forward, i
13、t seems likely that prices will stay in a relatively narrow band. Although capital spending by the energy sector has been dramatically cut, a sharp drop in output is unlikely. Moreover, even if production declines lead to a spike in prices, this would rapidly lead to increased investment in shale pr
14、oduction, thereby causing an increase in output fairly quickly. Thus, there might effectively be a ceiling on global oil prices. For the worlds leading retailers, the weakness of oil prices has mostly been good news. Lower fuel costs have translated into increased purchasing power for consumers as w
15、ell as reduced inflationary pressures. Indeed this has resulted in increased real (inflation-adjusted) wages in most major markets. On the other hand, the sharp decline in capital spending by energy companies has had a negative impact on business investment in the US, Canada, and other major oil pro
16、ducers. The result of low oil prices has been weak economic growth in a diverse range of oil-exporting countries including Canada, Russia, Venezuela, and Malaysia, to name a few. Low inflationIn the developed world, as well as in China, inflation has been at historically low levels and this has pers
17、isted longer than many analysts had expected. Despite aggressive monetary policies aimed at boosting inflation, a disinflationary psychology has been established. Thus, monetary expansion tends to boost asset prices rather than the prices of goods and services. Why is inflation so low? There are sev
18、eral explanations. These include global excess capacity, declining commodity prices due to the Chinese slowdown, and financial market weakness. The latter means that monetary expansion does not necessarily lead to increased credit market activity. One problem with very low inflation is that there is
19、 a persistent risk of deflation. The latter has the danger of elevating real borrowing costs, and thereby hurting investment. Expectations of low inflation have rendered government bond yields exceptionally low. While this is good for government finances, it tends to relieve governments of the neces
20、sity of implementing painful reforms. Finally, very low inflation appears to have discouraged business investment. The result is a massive accumulation of cash by businesses in developed economies.Global Powers of Retailing 20166 Major marketsUnited StatesHow one views the health of the US economy d
21、epends on where one sits. For observers from outside the US, the 6view is impressive. The US economy continues to grow faster than most other developed economies. Its strong domestic demand continues to fuel exports from the rest of the world. Moreover, the strength of its currency reflects confiden
22、ce in its economic future. The relatively high yields on government bonds reflect expectations that a tight labor market will generate higher inflation. For those observing from within the US, however, the view is less optimistic. The economy has been growing far more slowly following the last reces
23、sion than has historically been the case. That weakness has reflected several factors. First, it took a long time for the housing market to recover. Second, credit market activity was stymied for a long time following the financial crisis. Third, the US has been hit by waves of negative events. Thes
24、e included the European recession in 2012, a fiscal contraction in 2013, and the rise of the dollar this past year.Still, it now appears that the US economy has hit its stride. Consumer spending and housing continue to grow at a healthy pace. The consumer has been helped by strong job growth, declin
25、ing debt and debt service payments, rising wealth, an increasing willingness to take on new debt, nascent acceleration in wages, and lower energy prices. Housing has been helped by low interest rates, the anticipation of higher rates, and strong job growth. This, in turn, has contributed to strong d
26、emand for durable home goods. In addition, the rebound in housing has contributed to a rise in house prices which, in turn, has benefited the financial strength of banks. This has boosted the banks to extend credit, and has played a role in the economic recovery. The only negative factors in the US
27、economy are export weakness, the result of the strong dollar, and weak business investment, largely due to a sharp cutback in capital spending by energy companies.Going forward, US economic growth is likely to be around 3.0 percent in the coming year with continued low inflation. Growth will be disp
28、roportionately fueled by consumer spending. Although the Federal Reserve has begun a gradual tightening of monetary policy, this should not have significant negative consequences for the US economy. Moreover, global markets now expect a further gradual tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Re
29、serve. This has led to capital outflows from emerging markets. ChinaThe Chinese economy has slowed substantially in the past two years. After a period of growing at near double digit rates, the official figures suggest growth of only 7.0 percent. However, many private sector analysts believe that th
30、e economy has actually slowed much more. The slowdown has been due to two principal factors. First, a rise in the value of the renminbi against non-dollar currencies has hurt exports to Europe, Japan, and elsewhere. Second, excess capacity in industry and property have suppressed prices and margins
31、and caused a slowdown in investment.The Chinese slowdown has global implications, but they are unevenly distributed across the world. The slowdown in investment has caused a drop in commodity prices, thus hurting exporters such as Australia, Brazil, and South Africa. The drop in manufacturing activi
32、ty and trade has hurt East Asian countries that are part of Chinas manufacturing supply chain. This includes South Korea, Taiwan, and several countries in Southeast Asia. The impact of Chinas slowdown on the US and Europe, however, is likely to be more muted. Although China is the third largest expo
33、rt market for both the US and Europe, even a sizable drop in exports to China would only cut US and European GDP growth by a few tenths of a percentage point.China is unlikely to go into recession, especially given the relative strength of its domestic services sector. Rather, a significant slowdown
34、 in growth is likely. The duration will depend, in part, on the policy response. So far, the central bank has responded by easing monetary policy, with the goal of fueling more credit market activity. Yet this has mainly resulted in more borrowing by consumers to purchase equities and more borrowing
35、 by businesses to roll over existing debts. It has not fueled a significant increase in economic activity. Slower growth is the new normal for China. Going forward, the official rate of growth is likely to be under 7.0 percent, perhaps as low as 6.0 percent. Plus, the preponderance of growth is alre
36、ady shifting away from exports and investment toward consumer demand. The speed at which this transition takes place will depend on the degree to which the government implements reforms aimed at boosting the consumer sector. Global Powers of Retailing 2016 7EuropeThe European economy has recovered f
37、rom the doldrums of 2012-2014, largely due to the aggressive monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), which involves massive purchases of government bonds, combined with the positive effect of low oil prices. The ECB policy has suppressed the value of the euro, thereby boosting export com
38、petitiveness; created inflation when there otherwise would have been deflation, thereby lowering real borrowing costs; boosted asset prices, thereby increasing wealth and stimulating consumer spending; and improved credit market conditions, thereby enabling small and medium-sized companies to regain
39、 access to capital. The result has been modest yet somewhat disappointing growth. Inflation remains extremely low, leading to increasing expectations that the ECB will boost the size of its asset purchasing program. This would have the effect of further lowering the value of the euro.The ECB policy,
40、 combined with the low price of oil, has led to a revival in the growth of consumer spending, an improvement in credit market conditions, and renewed growth of employment as well as a decline in unemployment. It has also had a positive impact on export growth. Yet it has failed to significantly incr
41、ease business investment. Within Europe, some countries are performing better than others. The star performers are Spain and Ireland, while Italy has (as of this writing) begun to show signs of revival. German domestic demand has been steady, but export growth has been stymied by troubles in emergin
42、g markets. Outside of the Eurozone, the British economy has been growing at an admirable pace, with a strong labor market helping to fuel steady growth of retail spending.Despite Europes evident revival, risks remain. With ruinously high unemployment in many countries, Europe has seen the rise of ma
43、ny anti-euro and anti-EU parties, of both the left and right. As this process unfolds, it could create greater difficulties for Europes governments when they attempt to resolve imbalances and crises, and if they choose to attempt greater fiscal and financial integration. Indeed, the latter are proba
44、bly necessary in order to create an architecture that would make the euro more sustainable.Another risk concerns demographics. The population of Europe is aging and, in many countries, the working age population is in decline. This threatens growth and also makes it more difficult to provide adequat
45、e services to the elderly population. One solution is to allow more immigration. Yet this is fraught with political controversy and threatens social tension, as evidenced by the recent debate about welcoming Syrian refugees. JapanJapans economic activity declined in the second but bounced back in th
46、e third quarter of 2015. Although economic performance in the third quarter was good, there continue to be headwinds that raise questions about the health of the Japanese economy.Over the past two years, Japan has been engaged in a policy experiment that has yet to produce the desired results in par
47、t because not all of the components of the planned experiment have been implemented. The experiment, known as “Abenomics,” which is named for Prime Minister Abe, was meant to involve monetary expansion, fiscal expansion, and structural reform. Only the monetary expansion, involving massive purchases
48、 of government bonds, has been undertaken. Fiscal policy has involved a tax increase rather than fiscal expansion, and the structural reform program has not gone very far. As for monetary policy, the aggressive policy of the Bank of Japan did lead to a sizable drop in the value of the yen, thus help
49、ing exports. It has also led to a 44 percent jump in tourist traffic in the past year as foreigners take advantage of low Japanese prices. The monetary policy also caused a modest rebound in inflation, but wages have lagged thereby lowering real consumer spending power. And business investment has simply failed to respond to historically low borrowing costs, as business leaders evidently remain unconvinced that growth in demand is here to stay. Finally, as for structural reform, the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the free trade agreement between the US, Japan, and
