1、1Presidents Message会长致辞 2018 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China版权所有 华南美国商会 2018 年Reproduction for commercial use is strictly prohibited. This document is available free of charge in electronic form at: http:/www.amcham-southchina.org严禁复制以作商业用途。华南美国商会官方网站提供该出版物电子版免费下载。Last updated: Octob
2、er 26, 2018最后更新2018年10月26日The American Chamber of Commerce in South China Suite 1801, Guangzhou International Sourcing Center 8 East Pazhou Avenue, Haizhu DistrictGuangzhou, Guangdong, PRC, 510335华南美国商会中国广东省广州市海珠区琶洲大道东路8号广州国际采购中心1801室, 510335Tel. (86 20) 8335 1476Fax. (86 20) 8332 1642amchamamcham-s
3、outhchina.org www.amcham-southchina.orgDear Members,This publication represents a distillationof experiences, plans, insights and the views of 219 companies caught up in one of the most challenging and yet dynamic times facing trade between the United States and China.The companies which participate
4、d in our Study represent a group which spans nearly every type of enterprise and at every size. It includes companies originating from the U.S., China, and many countries from around the world with established businesses in China who are concerned aboutthe future of trade between the U.S. and China.
5、 The Study shows that todays trade frictions are impacting not just companies from the U.S. and China, but also many from around the world.As we present the results of this Study, it seems that many recent accounts, and much of the finger-pointing, miss the fact that the U.S.- China trade relationsh
6、ip is one that functions on multiple layers. Balance of trade is but one stratum of a far more involved relationship, and I firmly believe that to call our two economies “closely linked” is really only scratching the surface. I would suggest, in fact, that we revive the image of “ping pong diplomacy
7、” from our mutual past and consider that value continues to bounce back and forth between our two nations in much the same way as that small white ballit may be interestingto comment on a particularly deft or unfortunately poor instance of ball striking paddle, but ultimately it is through the game
8、as a whole that尊 敬的会员：本报告汇总了219家受访企业的经验、计 划 、 见 解 及 观 点 ， 他 们 正 处 于 美 中 贸 易 最 具 挑 战 及多 变 的 时 期 。 此 批 受 访 企 业 来 自 各 行 各 业 、 规 模 不一 ， 包 括 来 自 美 中 及 许 多 其 他 国 家 的 企 业 。 这 些 在中 国 建 立 了 业 务 的 企 业 心 系 美 中 贸 易 的 前 景 。 从 此份 报 告 中 也 可 看 出 ， 受 现 今 贸 易 摩 擦 影 响 的 不 仅 是美中企业，还有许多其他国家的企业。在我们发布此次调查结果之际，近期许多的言论及多数的指
9、责似乎都忽略了这样一个事 实 美 中 贸 易 关 系 是 在 多 层 次 上 发 挥 作 用 的 关系，而贸易平衡不过是错综复杂的关系中的一 环 。 我 坚 信 ， 用 “紧 密 联 系 ”形 容 美 中 两 个 经 济 体 不 过 是 走 马 观 花 的 说 法 。 事 实 上 ， 我 建 议 双 方重 振 过 去 “乒 乓 外 交 ”的 局 面 ， 并 就 双 边 关 系 如 同 一 颗 小 小 的 乒 乓 球 来 回 斡 旋 达 成 共 识 评 论妙 球 或 差 球 不 过 嘴 上 功 夫 ， 但 归 根 究 底 ， 只 有 宏观 局 势 ， 我 们 才 能 共 同 受 益 ， 这 也
10、是 后 代 评 论 我们的量尺。此 次 调 查 结 果 公 开 透 明 ， 无 掺 杂 任 何 个 人 观点。但需指出的在此次调查结果中脱颖而出的事实是，这场被称作 “贸易战 ”的争端中没有 “赢 家 ”，一如任何一场战争。我们希望，此份代表多国受访企业事实观点的报告，能促使双方政府暂停并重新思考其策32we will benefit, and by which future generations 略。与众人所见略同，我们认为所有的分歧均可且Preface前 言At a time when the tit-for-tat trade tensions 美中贸易紧张局势持续加剧的同时，will
11、 judge our actions today.We have consolidated the results of the Study and present them without adding our own opinion. However, we need to point out that what应通过友好磋商来化解。哈利 赛亚丁博士华南美国商会会长between the U.S. and China continue to intensify, the American Chamber of Commerce in South China conducted a spec
12、ial Study to measure the impact of tariffs imposed by both countries.The Study was conducted between September 21在华南美国商会进行了一项特别调查，以衡量美中两国关税的影响。这项调查于 2018年9月21 日至10月10日期间进行。此前不久，特朗普政府对中国产品征收 2000亿美元的关税，中国 政府对美国产品征收 600亿 美 元 的 关 税 。 此 次 调 查stands out from the results of this Study is the factthat ther
13、e are no“winners” and none are expected to emerge from what is now termed as a “trade war”. In a trade war, as in any war, no one wins.We hope that this Study, representing the factual points of view of participating companies from countries spanning the globe, will cause the leaders from both sides
14、 of the equation to pause and rethink their strategies. We suggest, ascountless others have, that all differences can and should be resolved through friendly discussions.Dr. Harley SeyedinPresident, American Chamber of Commerce in South China Winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award Awarded
15、by the Award Committee of Nobel Laureatesin Peace and EconomicsVisiting Scholar, Jinan University President, Allelon Energy Partners2017奥斯陆商业促和平奖获奖者由诺贝尔和平奖及经济奖评审委员会授予暨 南 大 学 访 问 学 者阿 来 龙 能 源 总 裁and October 10, 2018, shortly after the additional$200 billion in tariffs on Chinese products imposed by t
16、he Trump administration and the tariffs on$60 billion on the U.S. products by the Chinese government. 219 companies in total participated in the Study, of which one third are engaged in the manufacturing industry, more than one half in the service sector, and around one seventh in other industries.
17、95% of respondents have operation in China. Participants in the Study include companies from Mainland China, U.S., Canada, European Union, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong and Macau SARs. Nearly a half of the respondents originate from the U.S., and one third from
18、Mainland China. Where necessary, we have presented the responses from companies of different origins separately.共有 219家会员企业参与，其中三分之一从事制造业，一半以上从事服务业，约七分之一从事其他行业。百分之九十五的受访企业在中国有运营。受访企业主要来自中国大陆、美国、加拿大、欧盟、日本、韩国、东南亚、澳大利亚、新西兰、中国香港特别行政区及中国澳门特别行政区。其中近半受访企业来自美国，也有三分之一来自中国大陆。对值得关注的问题，我们分别展示了不同来源地的受访企业的回应。Key
19、Take Away 关键要点 Combined tariffs have negatively impacted various industries and companies from different origins, affecting business operations and result- ing in substantial loss of business volume and market share. Nearly a half of the respondents report an increase in non-tariff barriers, among w
20、hich com- plications from increased bureaucratic oversight or 美中关税对各行各业及不同国家的企业均产生 了 负 面 影 响 ， 影 响 其 业 务 运 营 ， 导 致 其 业 务 额 及市场份额大幅减少。 近半数受访企业表示非关税壁垒有所增多， 其 中 官 僚 监 督 或 监 管 审 查 增 加 以 及 清 关 速 度 变 慢 是最受关注的两个问题。54A 此regulatory scrutiny and slower customs clear- ance are the top two concerns. 不仅供应链受到影响，美
21、国或中国的产业集群 还 将 发 生 长 期 变 化 。 企 业 在 计 划 将 生 产 线 迁 出 中国时，东南亚国家是其首选。Demographics受访企业组成 Not only supply chains are impacted, butthe industrial clusters in either the U.S. or China will be changed in the long-term. Southeast Asian countries are the priority when planning reloca- tion of manufacturing line
22、s outside of China. Although plans for relocation of manu- facturing lines outside of China are considered by a majority of respondents, only very few surveyed companies will give up the Chinese market. Instead, most of the respondents see the expansion of the Chinese market as one of the most impor
23、tant remedies for the imposed tariffs, which sheds light on the importance of the Chinese market. Both the U.S. and Chinese companies have low confidence towards U.S.-China relations.Negative opinions towards imposed tariffs are widely shared by the business community. Generally speaking, more U.S.
24、companies report that they are hurt in the trade tensions than their Chinese counterparts, particularlyin terms of practical impact on the business operation, loss of business volume and market share. Nevertheless, the U.S. companies are more active in reacting towards the impact of the trade disput
25、es. 虽然多数受访企业有考虑将生产线迁出中国，但只有极少数受访企业表示会放弃中国市场。相反，大多受访企业认为扩大中国市场是应对加征关税最重要的补救措施之一，这足以说明中国市场的重要性。 美中企业对美中关系信心不足。商界广泛对征收关税持负面看法。 总而言之，相比中国企业，更多美国企业称其 在 贸 易 争 端 中 受 损 ， 尤 其 业 务 运 营 、 营 业 额 及 市场 份 额 等 方 面 受 到 的 实 际 影 响 。 尽 管 如 此 ， 美 企 更积极应对贸易争端带来的影响。total 219 companies participated in the Study, of which o
26、ne third from themanufacturing industry. While nearly a half of the respondents originate from the U.S., one third are from Mainland China, and one fifth from other countries. It is, therefore, obvious that most of the responses are contributed by foreign-invested companies.One third of the Study pa
27、rticipants are large-scale companies with more than 500 employees in China. More than 60 percent of the surveyed companies have established business operations in both the U.S. and China. Nearly a half of the respondents arebased in China to provide goods and services to the domestic market or the U
28、.S. market. It is worth noting that among companies engaged in export business, the average percentage of “made in China” components of their exported products is less than 70 percent.In general, most of the participating companies engage in trades with either the U.S. or China, and have acquired go
29、od understanding of both markets. Theircontribution to this Study greatly improves our comprehension of the current situation faced by the business community in south China.次调查共有219家会员企业参加， 其中三分之一从事制造业。虽然近半受访企业来自美国，也有三分之一来自中国大陆，五分之一来自其他国家。因此，不难发现多数受访企业为外资企业。受访企业中多数为全职员工不足250人的中小型企业，其中三分之一以上是在华雇佣500多
30、名员工的大型企业。超过60的 受访企业已在美中设立业务运营；近半数受访企业在华对中国市场或美国市场提供商品和服务。值得注意的是，在从事出口业务的受访企业中，其出口产品的“中国制造”成分 的平均占比低于70。总而言之，大多受访企业与美国或中国均有贸易往来，并对这两个市场了解较深。这些企业对这项调查的贡献无疑有助于了解华南地区商界所面临的现状。Some figures in this report may show deviations from 100% due to rounding up. 本报告中的某些数据合计因四舍五入可能偏离100 。76Origin of Company 来源国 Fu
31、ll-time Employees in China 在华全职雇员Types of Legal Entity 法人类型 Business Operation 运营业务98G 总Business Activities in China 在华主营业务 Impact on Business对业务的影响Distribution of Industry 行业分布Influence of the Combined Tariffs on Businessenerally speaking, either the tariffs imposed by the U.S. governmentor the Chi
32、nese government have brought negative impact to half of the respondents. Although around one fifth of the companies studied are unsure of the consequences of the bilateral trade disputes, the negative impactof tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is slightly bigger (approximately 10 percent)
33、than that those imposed by its counterpartin Beijing. Meanwhile, the U.S. companies are experiencing more trauma from the trade tensions than companies from other countries. In terms of its impact on industries, while the wholesale and retail sector has suffered the most from the U.S. tariffs, the a
34、griculture- related business has experienced more negative impact brought by the Chinese tariffs compared to other sectors.美中关税对业务的影响而言之，美国政府或中国政府征收的关税对一半的受访企业产生了负面 影 响 。 尽 管 接 受 调 查 的 受 访 企 业 中 约 有 五 分之 一 不 确 定 双 边 贸 易 纠 纷 带 来 的 后 果 ， 但 美 国政 府 施 加 关 税 的 负 面 影 响 略 大 于 （ 约 10 ） 中 国 政 府 施 加 关 税 的 负 面
35、影 响 。 与 此 同 时 ， 与其 他 国 家 的 企 业 相 比 ， 美 国 企 业 在 贸 易 纠 纷 中受 创 更 严 重 。 就 其 对 工 业 的 影 响 而 言 ， 虽 然 批发 和 零 售 业 受 美 国 关 税 的 影 响 最 大 ， 但 与 其 他行 业 相 比 ， 农 业 相 关 行 业 受 到 中 国 关 税 带 来 的更 多 负 面 影 响 。Industry 行 业 Percentage百分比Manufacturing 制造业 32%Wholesale and retail 批发及零售业 10%Scientific research and technologica
36、l services 科技研究及技术服务业 9%Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries and related businesses农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业及其相关产业 7%Transportation, warehousing, postal services 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 6%Healthcare 医疗卫生 5%Culture, sports, and entertainment 文化、体育及娱乐业 5%Financial services 金融业 5%Accommodation and catering 住宿及餐饮
37、4%Leasing and commercial services 租赁及商业服务 4%Construction 建筑业 3%Education 教育 3%Information 信息传输 2%Mining (production and services) 采 矿 业 ( 产 品 及 服 务 ) 1%Repair of metal, machinery, and equipment 金属制品、机械及设备维修业 1%Manufacture and supply of electricity, heat and water电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业 1%Public management,
38、 social security, social organizations or international organizations公共管理、社会安全、社会组织或国际组织 1%1110Impact of Combined Tariffs on Business 美中关税对业务影响Negative Impact of Combined Tariffs on Business (By Industry)美中关税对业务的消极影响（按照行业划分）Impact of Combined Tariffs on Business (By Origin)美中关税对业务影响（按企业来源国） Positive
39、 Impact of Combined Tariffs on Business (By Industry)美中关税对业务的积极影响（按照行业划分）1312近Nearly 80 percent of the respondentsImpact on Business Operation 对业务运营的影响have experienced serious impact or negative impact of the combined tariffs on various business operations. The negative consequences brought by the U
40、.S. tariffs are slightly more impactful than the Chinese ones. While around 85 percent of U.S. companies have been suffering trauma from the combined tariffs, approximately 70 percent of their Chinese counterparts receive the same impact. What is also worth noting is that companies from other countr
41、ies share the similar feeling with their American counterparts.Among all the difficulties companies studied confront in their business operation due to theU.S. tariffs, the top concern is the rising cost of goods sold (86 percent), which results in reduced profits (85 percent). Other concerns are in
42、creased sales price of the products (84percent), difficulties in managing procurements and rise of associated costs (83 percent), and reduced sales volume (82 percent). Similarly, 82 percent of companies surveyed are concerned with the reduced sales volume and profit because of the tariffs imposed b
43、y the Chinese government. Other top concerns experienced and shared by the respondents are reduced revenue (81 percent), and increased sales price of the products (80 percent).Regarding the impact on different industries, all of the respondents in wholesale and retail sector report that they have su
44、ffered reduced profits due to the U.S. tariffs, while all the companies surveyed engaged in agriculture- related business note that they have experienced difficulties in managing procurements and rise of associated costs, as well as reduced profit.80的受访企业遭受了美中两国关税对多重业务的严重影响或负面影响。美国关税带来的负面影响比中国关税带来的负
45、面影响更为严重。约85的美国企业遭受两国关税重创，约70的中国企业也受同样影响。值得注意的是，来自其他国家的企业与美国企业有着相同的感受。受 美 国 关 税 影 响 ， 受 访 企 业 在 其 业 务 运 营中 遇 到 的 最 大 问 题 是 销 售 成 本 上 升 （ 86 ） 及其导致的利润减少（85）。 其 他 问 题 包 括产品销售价格上涨（84）、 采 购 管 理 困 难和 相 关 成 本 上 升 （ 83 ） 及 销 量 下 降 （ 82 ） 。同样，受中国关税影响，82的 受 访 企 业 担心销量下降及利润减少。 受访企业共同关注的其他主要问题是收入减少（81）及 产品销售价格上
46、涨（80）。关于对不同行业的影响，批发和零售行业的所有受访企业均表示其受美国关税影响遭受利润减少；所有从事农业相关行业的受访企业均表示其采购管理遭难、相关成本上升及利润减少。Negative Impact of Combined Tariffs on Business Operation (By Origin)美中关税对业务运营的负面影响（按照来源国家划分）1514D 尽Challenges on BusinessVolume and Market Share受影响的营业额及市场份额Loss of Business Volume 营业额损失Negative Impact of Combined
47、 Tariffs on Business (By Origin)美中关税对业务的消极影响（按照来源国家划分）espite the fact that nearly two fifths of the respondents are still not sureof the negative impact on their business volume so far, one third of the companies studied claim that the negative impact on their business volume is between US$1 million
48、 and US$50 million. While the U.S. companies seem to be the ones that suffer the most losses, the loss of business volume of their Chinese counterparts is mainly below US$10 million. While half of the surveyed companies in the wholesale and retail sector experience low-volume business losses (below
49、US$10 million), nearly one tenth of the manufacturing sector witness high-volume business losses of US$250 million or more; meanwhile, nearly four fifths of the companies studied in agribusiness suffer either low or medium-volume business losses respectively.管近五分之二的受访企业仍不确定到目前为止其营业额所受的负面影响，但有三分之一的受访企业声称其业务额所受的负面影响在100万美元至5000万 美 元之间。美国企业似乎损失最大，同时，中国企业的营业额损失多低于1000万美元。虽 然批发及零售业受访企业中有一半经历了低额商业亏损（低于1000万美元），但近十 分之一的制造业受访企业遭遇了2.5亿美元或更多的高额亏损；与此同时，农业受访企业中近五分之四分别遭遇中低额亏损。Negative Impact of Combined Tariffs on Business (By Industry)美中关税对业务的消极影响（按照行业划分）1716N 近Lo
