1、,Can bad luck be explained?,Warming up, Read the reflections made by great scientists through the ages. Then work in pairs and explain what the quotations mean.,1 This only is certain, that there is nothing certain. Pliny the Elder, 1st-century Roman naturalist The only thing we know is definitely t
2、rue is that we are not sure about anything. Pliny is taking a position of scepticism.,Warming up,2 Experimental science is the queen of sciences and the goal of all speculation. Roger Bacon, 13th-century English philosopher and scientistBacon lived at a time when people thought it more important to
3、reason and approach problems through theory and logic than through experiment. Bacon is daringly turning this around and announcing that finding out the facts is far more important than theorizing.,Warming up,3 I do not know what I may appear to the world; but to myself I seem to have been only like
4、 a boy playing on the seashore, and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me. Sir Isaac Newton, 17th-century English physicist and mathematician, who discovered the laws of gravity,New
5、ton is acclaimed as a great genius who has opened up understanding of nature, but he humbly points out how very little he does actually know especially when compared with all that there is to know. Newton was very religious as well as a great mathematician so he would have been referring to great my
6、steries as well as understanding of the cosmos.,Warming up,4 The most incomprehensible thing about our universe is that it can be comprehended. Albert Einstein, perhaps the greatest scientist the world has ever known,Einstein thinks that the greatest wonder is that the universe does operate on mathe
7、matical laws which one of its by-products us can understand a little.,Warming up, Work in pairs and discuss the questions.,1 How would you define science? Science is the study and knowledge of the physical world and its behaviour that is based on experiments and facts that can be proved, and is orga
8、nized into a system.,Warming up,2 Should science be a compulsory subject until the last year at school? Yes, it is so important to our modern world. It is also a way of thinking that we need to develop in people.I am not sure everyone needs to know so much science. Different people have different sk
9、ills; perhaps some could spend more time on arts subjects.,Warming up,3 In what areas of contemporary life is scientific research most important? Frankly, it is important for almost everything: medicine, developing new energy sources, dealing with pollution, new materials, agriculture, information t
10、echnology, transport, defence, and even more.,Warming up,4 Is some scientific research useless?Yes and no it may not have any use at the time it is carried out, but it is surprising how things can later turn out to be useful. The research joins the great database of human knowledge and may one day p
11、rove valuable.,Warming up, Look at the title of the passage and answer the questions.,1 Is it possible to define bad luck?Bad luck refers to things happening in ways you donot want. An event in itself is not bad luck, but bad luck to someone. My losing money may be someone elses good luck.,2 Does ba
12、d luck lead to more bad luck?I guess it can. Once you have lost your job, your family may break up and you might fall ill from stress and so on downwards.,Warming up,3 Is bad luck more common than good luck?It certainly feels like it at times, but I guess if missing the bus is bad luck, catching it
13、is good luck. But I think we regard things going smoothly as normal so we dont call it good luck. We have a higher standard for good than bad luck.,4 Can bad luck be explained by science?I dont really see how. Theres no reason why one person takes a plane that crashes, and someone else takes another
14、 and is safe.,Skimming,Browse the passage within 8 minutes to get a rough idea about it. Answer the questions of Activity 2 and 3 on page 147.,Task,Skimming, Choose the best way to complete the sentences.,1 Murphys Law is _.(a) a popular belief (b) a scientific law(c) a classical theory (d) a statis
15、tical calculation2 Bad luck _.(a) can be explained by science(b) can be partly blamed on strange coincidences(c) only really exists in peoples minds(d) is impossible to explain,a,b,Skimming,3 “Bad luck” is a problematic concept because _.(a) it is relative; some things are more “bad” than others (b)
16、 it suggests a connection between science and morality(c) luck cant by definition be “good” or “bad”(d) it encourages people not to take responsibility for their own actions,a,Skimming,4 Unlucky events seem to come in threes because _.(a) three is an unlucky number in most cultures(b) the mind wants
17、 to make a connection between events(c) we dont notice single unlucky events(d) we cant remember more than three connected events,b,Skimming,5 For some people, unlucky events are connected because _.(a) they are psychologically weaker than other people(b) they have better memories than other people(
18、c) they define bad luck differently from other people(d) the first unlucky event has an effect on them which makes the second event more likely,d,Skimming,6 The writer says map reading is frustrating because _.(a) the destination will often be marked very near the edge of the map(b) it is difficult
19、to consult a street atlas when you are in a car(c) the destination is unlikely to be in the middle of the map (d) modern road maps have not been well designed,a,Skimming,7 The writer says we believe the traffic lights are always red when were in a hurry because _.(a) traffic lights spend more time o
20、n red than on green(b) we hardly notice when the lights are green(c) red lights are a source of stress(d) red lights appear more often when a driver is in a hurry,b,Skimming,8 The examples of map reading and traffic lights show that _.(a) we are often too ready to interpret an event as “bad”(b) if w
21、e are in a hurry, something bad will usually happen(c) journeys need to be carefully planned so that things will not go wrong(d) bad luck is a direct result of stress and anxiety,a,Skimming, Work in pairs and match the examples with the types of events.,1 a burst water pipe2 a train which is late3 b
22、uses which arrive three at a time4 losing your wedding ring5 dropping a vase,(a) something which might happen because you are feeling depressed or unwell (b) an extremely memorable and unfortunate event (c) the sort of event which confirms the “bad luck theory” (d) a strange coincidence which many p
23、eople claim to notice (e) an event which could be bad or not bad, depending on the context,b,e,d,c,a,Can bad luck be explained?,译文,Digging,Background information,1 Toast always lands butter side down. It always rains on bank holidays. You never win the lottery, but other people you know seem to . Do
24、 you ever get the impression that you were born unlucky? Even the most rational person can be convinced at times that there is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time. We all like to believe that Murphys Law is true (“if it can go wrong, it will”).,Digging,2 Part of the exp
25、lanation for bad luck is mathematical, but part is psychological. Indeed there is a very close connection between peoples perception of bad luck and interesting coincidences.,译文,Digging,3 For example, take the belief that “bad things always happen in threes” (just like buses .!) This popular notion
26、would be unlikely to stand the scrutiny of any scientific study, but it must have some basis in experience, otherwise the phrase would never have arisen in the first place. What might be the rational explanation?,译文,Digging,4 The first question is “what is bad?”5 Some things are only marginally bad,
27、 for example the train arriving five minutes late. Some are extremely bad, such as failing an exam or being sacked. So badness is much better represented as being on a spectrum rather than something which is there or not there.,译文,Digging,6 A particular event may only be a misfortune because of the
28、circumstances around it. The train arriving five minutes late is a neutral event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article while you wait. It is bad if you are late for an important meeting.,译文,Digging,7 When it comes to bad things happening in threes, what may be most impo
29、rtant of all is the duration and memorability of the first event. Take a burst pipe while you are away on holiday, for example. It may take less than an hour to flood the house, but this one bad event can remain alive and kicking for many months, with the cleaning up operation and the debate with yo
30、ur insurers acting as constant reminders of the original event.,译文,Digging,8 The longer the first bad event sticks in the front of your mind, the more opportunities you will have to experience two more bad events. A month later someone bumps the back of your car and a week after that you lose your w
31、edding ring. The mind which is already on a low from the first event will quickly leap to connect the subsequent misfortunes as part of the series. It wouldnt matter that there could be a two-month timescale over which everything happened. By the time you have recovered from the water damage you are
32、 actively looking out for the next disaster. The timescale has been extended as long as is necessary to confirm the original prophecy.,译文,Digging,9 As with coincidences, in bad luck there is a tendency to look for the examples which confirm the theory, and ignore those which dont (because they are l
33、ess interesting). Single bad events happen all the time. That alone should be enough to disprove the theory. Bad things also come in twos. But it is more likely that a friend will tell you “three bad things have happened to me, isnt that typical” than “only two bad things have happened to me, which
34、just proves that the theory doesnt work”. After all, the latter is tempting fate!,译文,Digging,10 There is, however, at least one rational reason why bad events might cluster together. It is related to probability and independence. Unlucky events are not always independent of each other. Anybody who i
35、s made redundant is bound to suffer some depression. That will lower the bodys defences, making the person vulnerable to illness, and also making them less alert and responsive (so they may be more likely to drop a precious vase, for example). So while the probability of being made redundant on any
36、particular day and the probability of being sick may both be small, the chance of both occurring is almost certainly higher than the product of the two probabilities.,译文,Digging,Map reading misfortunes11 So much for the general incidents of bad luck which crop up in life. Lets get on to a specific o
37、ne that everyone has encountered.,译文,Digging,12 You are off to visit a friend who lives at the other end of the city. You look up the road in the street atlas, and discover that it is right on the edge of the page. This means that finding precise route becomes a chore of flicking backwards and forwa
38、rds from one page to the next. Either the road is half on one page and half on the other, or its spread across the fold in the middle of the book. And if its an ordnance survey map, then your destination is at just the point where you folded the map over.,译文,Digging,13 It doesnt seem fair. After all
39、 a map only has a tiny bit of “edge” but plenty of “middle” in which your destination could be situated. Or has it? In fact the chance of picking a destination which is close to the edge of the map is a lot higher than you might expect. Take a look at the map in the diagram.,译文,Digging,14 You will h
40、ave a problem if your destination is anywhere in the shaded area marked on the map. This shaded area is just 1 cm into the page all the way around. It looks insignificant. However, the shaded area adds up to 56 cm2. That represents 28 per cent of the area of the whole page of the map, which means th
41、at any specific point that you are seeking on this map has a 28 per cent chance (thats nearly one in three) of being in an awkward position within 1 cm of the edge of the page. And if you regard within 2 cm of the edge of the page as being awkward, the chance of ill-fortune climbs to 52 per cent. In
42、 other words, you might expect this misfortune to occur on almost every other journey.,译文,Digging,15 As in most bad luck stories, you forget about the number of times the road doesnt land awkwardly and remember the times it does, and in this case the chance of a bad result is so high that before lon
43、g you are bound to be cursing your misfortune, or the maps printer, or both. This, incidentally, is why many modern road maps allow significant overlaps between adjacent map pages. In a good road atlas, at least 30 per cent of the page is duplicated elsewhere.,译文,Digging,The lights are always red wh
44、en Im in a hurry16 One of the best examples of selective memory where an unfair comparison is made between good and bad is in the relative frequency of red and green lights on a journey. For once, the perception of “I always seem to get red lights when Im in a hurry” is true and verifiable. To simpl
45、ify the situation, think of a traffic light as being like tossing a coin, with a 50 per cent chance of being red, and 50 per cent of being green. (In fact most traffic lights spend more time on red.) If you encounter six traffic lights on a journey, then you are no more likely to escape a red light
46、than you are to toss six consecutive heads, the chance of which is 1 in 64.,译文,Digging,17 Red lights come up just as often when the driver is not in a hurry; its just that the disadvantage of the red light is considerably less if time is not critical. The false part of the perception is that red lig
47、hts happen more than green lights. The reason for this is simply that a driver has more time to think about a red light than a green light, because while the latter is gone in seconds and indeed is an experience no different from just driving along the open road the red light forces a change of beha
48、viour, a moment of exertion and stress, and then a deprivation of freedom for a minute or so. Red lights stick in the mind, while green lights are instantly forgotten.,Main idea of the text,1. Toast always lands butter side down.(Line 1, Para 1),The messy buttered side will hit the floor. The senten
49、ce means the worst of two options always happens.,Difficult sentences,Difficult sentences,2. that there is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time.(Line 7, Para 1),“There is force out there” here means there is some power in existence, like an evil spirit.,Difficult sentences,3. Part of the explanation for bad luck is mathematical, but part is psychological. (Line 1, Para 2),Bad luck is not only a matter of the odds for or against something happening, but of our memories and attitudes.,
