1、1,measurement of moneyM0:流通中的现金Currency in circulation refers to that circulated in nonbank publics, this is the money in the narrowest sense,We use M0 to denote.Eg: coins, paper moneyM1: narrow money 狭义货币currency in circulation and checkable deposits反应了社会的直接购买支付能力M2: broad money广义货币M1+Saving deposi
2、ts既反映了现实的购买力也反映了潜在的购买力，中央银行货币政策调节的主要中介目标2， function definition:（会判断）Measurement of money价值尺度Medium of exchange 流通手段Medium of payment 支付手段Means of storage 储藏手段World currency 世界货币3， Gold standard 大致了解Gold coin standard is the typical example （金铸币本位制）4， fiat money standard（不兑现信用货币制度）Lecture2 money and
3、monetary systems2011年 11月 20日0:23分区 MF 的第 1 页 1， components of financial system 看一下定义2， funds flows 流动的载体、原则、监管Indirect financing 间接融资：3，直接融资和间接融资（了解）Indirect financing is a means of financing via financial intermediaries which mainly includes commercial banks. Commercial banks, insurance companies,
4、 investment funds, etc., are bridges for indirect financing. Theory of financial intermediation focusing on the reason why there is financial intermediary, the nature of financial intermediary, and the division of labor between financial markets and intermediaries.Direct financingFinancing activitie
5、s between demanders for funds and suppliers of funds are conducted in financial markets directly.It is worth pointing out that direct financing also involves financial institutions such as investment banks, security brokers, and market makers, etc.Financial market theory focusing on allocation effic
6、iency of capitals, and asset pricing, etc.Disadvantages of direct financingAdvantages vs. disadvantages of different financingsExpertise requirementsHigher risks involvedIndirect financingTough requirements for issuersReducing information and contract costsReducing risks by diversificationsTransform
7、ation of maturities4，两种结构，大致理解比较 bank-based and market-based市场，伙伴关系相对少，股权分散银行，贷款，商业往来，合作伙伴，允许交叉持股直接融资：市场间接融资：银行Lecture3 financial system and financial structure2011年 12月 9日15:49分区 MF 的第 2 页 5，中国的金融体系概览（有所了解） A glimpse at chinas financial system中国以商业银行主导的间接融资模式为主非简单的银行主导，政府干预太多在直接融资中，通过发行企业债券方式所筹集的资金
8、比例低于股票融资。目前我国企业债券市场发展规模十分有限政府的干预在间接融资中，四大国有商业银行占据了绝对的市场份额，但是其所占市场份额有下降趋势6，台湾的金融体系，大致了解，中小企业而非正式金融7，金融体系的功能（ functions of financial system)（不确定条件下资源的时空配置， 6个功能，分清楚，能判断）The primary function of any financial system is to ficilitate the allocation and deployment of economic resources, both spatially and
9、 temporally, in an uncertain environment.Function 1: A financial system provides a payment system for the exchange of goods and services.支付清算Function 2: A financial system provides a mechanism for the pooling of funds to undertake large-scale indivisible enterprise.融资机制的供给Function 3: A financial sys
10、tem provides a way to transfer economic resources through time and across geographic regions and industries.资源配置Function 4: A financial system provides a way to manage uncertainly and control risk.不确定性管理和风险控制，最基本的有跨期平滑（ intertemporal smoothing）和横向分担（ cross-sectional risk sharing）Function 5: A financ
11、ial system provides price information that helps coordinate decentralized decision-making in various sectors of the economy.协调经济中不同部门的分散化决策Function 6: A financial system provides a way to deal with the asymmetric-information and incentive problems when one party to financial transaction has informat
12、ion that the other party does not.解决信息不对称和激励问题8信息问题 ，解决问题的相对优势及不足了解银行跟市场降低信息不对称的措施分区 MF 的第 3 页 解决信息不对称：逆向选择：在交易发生之前，信息不对称造成的问题是会导致逆向选择。解决办法：中介的信息生产和甄别screening道德风险：在交易发生之后由于信息不对称所造成的问题。解决方法：受托监控delegated monitoring9，中国的金融体系，了解eg：抵押品有利于减轻逆向选择或道德风险吗？分区 MF 的第 4 页 1,money market VS capital marketThe mon
13、ey market is a market where only short-term debt instruments (original maturity is less than one year) are traded.The capital market is a market where long-term debt and equity instruments are traded.Money Market：short-term bank credit market短期银行信贷市场CDs market大额可装让存单市场（ certificate of deposit） 相当于流动
14、性很强的定期存款Bank acceptance bills market银行承兑汇票市场Commercial paper market商业票据市场Treasury bonds repo. Market国债回购协议市场Capital marketInter-bank offered market银行间同业拆借市场Medium and long-run bank market中长期银行信贷市场Derivative market衍生产品市场Bond market债券市场Stock market股票市场2，国债的回购 (Treasury bond repurchase market)Repurchas
15、e agreements are short-term loans for which treasury bills serve as collateral（抵押品） .Function： An important market for open market operation.Satisfying demands for liquidity.中央银行 回购市场是进行公开市场操作的场所和进行货币政策操作的重要渠道。金融机构 通过回购交易，得以最大限度的保持资产的流动性、收益性和安全性的统一， 从而实现资产结构的多元化和合理化。各类非金融机构 可以进行短期投资正回购逆回购？正回购方就是抵押出债
16、券，取得资金的融入方 ;而逆回购方就是接受债券质押，借出资金的融出方。3，商业票据 commercial paper marketCommercial paper is a short-term debt instrument issued by large banks and well-known corporations.银行是商业票据的大买主4， 股票市场（ stock market）Primary market & secondary marketPublic placement& private placement（公募和私募）规模不断扩大.为我国经济发展筹集了大量资金.促进了国有企
17、业的公司制改革.中国股票市场：市场相对规模较小.股权分置比较严重.上市公司盈利能力逐年下降，近年略微好转.问题：5，政府债券： government bonds 中国只有中长期的Treasury bill (less than 1 year).Treasury note( 1-10years).Treasury bond(over 10 years).Bonds issued by central governmentLocal government also issue bonds, that is municipal bond.市政债券6，公司债券（ corporation bonds)C
18、orporation bonds are issued by firms and financial institutions with a longer maturity of no less than 1 year.Debenture 信用债券（无抵押债券）Secured bond 担保债券（抵押债券）要点 : 货币市场和资本市场国债的回购 /正回购 /逆回购商业票据重点 :金融工具的三个特点了解 ,政府债券 (中国只有中长期 ),股票 ,公司债券不靠 :期权 /汇票Lecture4 financial markets and instruments2011年 12月 9日18:28分区
19、MF 的第 5 页 Secured bond 担保债券（抵押债券）Subordinated debenture 次级无担保债券特点：7，金融工具（ financial instruments）Liquidity 流动性：必须能很容易变现变现交易成本必须极小资产的价格必须保持相对稳定Risk 风险性：default risk 违约风险：又称信用风险，指由于金融工具发行人破产而不能收回本金或利息的可能性market risk 市场风险： 价格波动引起的风险Return 收益性： 当期收益率和到期收益率三特点之间的关系：流动性与收益性之间是负相关关系风险性跟收益性是正相关关系：风险性跟流动性：流动性
20、高的金融工具风险小，因为它们可以立即变现，价格波动小。长期债券的价格波动比短期大，它们就比短期债券的流动性低，风险高。金融工具：广义的金融工具不仅包括股票、债券等有价证券，而且包括存款、贷款等金融资产。狭义的金融工具是指资金短缺单位向资金盈余单位借入资金或发行者向投资者筹措资金时，依一定格式制成标准化的、在金融市场上被普遍接受和 交易的金融资产。分区 MF 的第 6 页 1， DV &FV2， YTM 给定两种债券，判断哪个到期收益率高市价 =未来现金流的折现3，债券价格与利率负相关4， determination of interest rate哪些的变化导致 AD曲线移动费雪公式供需均衡影
21、响利率：5，利率的期限结构和利率的风险结构6，三个事实1，单利与复利（没说） simple and compound interest rate单个现金流：.现值：系列现金流：年金 annuities的计算.很多时候会遇到一系列现金流的情况，如分期等额付款、还款，发放养老金、支付工程款等。经济学上将这种定额定期的支付称为“年金”。这里涉及的就是年金现值和年金终值的计算。年金终值之和年金现值之和求和得：2，现值与终值： DV&PV到期收益率是指使债务工具未回报的现值与今天价值相等的利率。计算：普通贷款（ simple loan）.Fixed-payment loan:定期定额贷款.Coupon-
22、bond：息票债券.consols：统一公债.Zero-coupon bond：贴现发行票据的到期收益率.Current bond prices and interest rates are negatively related: when the interest rate rises, the price of the bond falls, and vice versa.债券价格与利率负相关 （利率是用到期收益率衡量的）3，到期收益率 Yield to maturity费雪效应图：4， Real VS nominal interest rate:费雪公式！不等于费雪效应！I表示利息额，
23、P 表示本金， i表示利率， n表示期限， S表示本金和利息之和将终值换算成现值的过程叫贴现 discount求和得 A代表年金， i代表利率LV=贷款余额 loan valueFP=固定的年偿付额 fixed yearly paymentn=到期前贷款年限 maturity of the loanC:每年的支付额P：债券的市场价格i：名义利率 r：实际利率 利率的两个影响因素：inflation 和 real rateLecture5 theory of interest rate2011年 12月 10日10:46分区 MF 的第 7 页 费雪效应图：流动性偏好理论：.用货币的供求说明均衡
24、利率的决定。（假定人们储藏财富的资产只有货币和债券）在分析预期通货膨胀的效应时，可贷资金理论更加便于运用；在分析收入、价格水平和货币供给变化时，流动性偏好理论更方便。货币需求曲线的移动：收入效应和价格效应。利率决定的资产市场说：.资产需求的决定因素： determinants of asset demand5,determination of interest rate 利率的决定一种资产相对于其他替代性资产的预期回报率（ expected return）一种资产相对于其他替代性资产的风险（ risk）一种资产相对于其他替代性资产的流动性（ liquidity）资产需求理论（ theory o
25、f asset demand）The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to wealth.The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its expected return to alternative assetsThe quantity demanded of an asset is negatively related to the risk of its returns relative to alternative assets.The q
26、uantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its liquidity relative to alternative assets.可贷资金理论（ theory of loanable funds）Supply and demand in the bond market.(债券市场的供给与需求）Market equilibrium 市场均衡Theory of loanable funds 可贷资金理论Changes in equilibrium interest rate 均衡利率的变动Shifts in demand for
27、bonds债券需求曲线的移动wealth 财富expected return relative to alternative assetsrisks relative to alternative assetsliquidity relative to alternative assetsShifts in supply of bonds债券供给曲线的移动expected changes in the interest rate各种投资机会的预期盈利性expected inflation 预期通货膨胀率财富（ wealth）Risk structure of interest rates利率的
28、风险结构：考察期限相同但风险因素不同的各种信用工具利率之间的关系6，利率的风险结构（三种因素）和利率的期限结构（三个经验事实）default risk 违约风险：。有违约风险与无违约风险债券之间的利差被称为 风险溢价（ risk premium）Bonds with the same term to maturity tend to have different interest rates.分区 MF 的第 8 页 有违约风险与无违约风险债券之间的利差被称为 风险溢价（ risk premium）liquidity流动性：流动性越高，利率越低，流动性越低，利率越高。Taxes 税收因素：税率
29、越高的证券，税前利率也越高Term structure -利率的期限结构：考察风险特征相同但期限不同的各种利率间的关系一般而言，风险溢价包括了违约风险和流动性溢价。三种经验事实：Fact 1: Interest rates of different maturities move together over time.Fact 2: When short-term interest rates are low, yields curves are more likely to have an upward slope, when short-term rates are high, yield
30、s curves are more likely to slope downward and be inverted.短期利率较低，收益率曲线向上倾斜，反之向下；Fact 3: Yield curves almost always slope upward.后面计算？A bond with default risk will always havea positive risk premium and an increase in its default risk will raise the premium.分区 MF 的第 9 页 1，自由对换、超调不作要求2，汇率制度不做要求3，汇率的标
31、价，先定义一个本国4，名义利率和实际利率5，利率平价，很重要6，购买力平价，长期适用看是引起需求的变化还是供给品增加，外汇市场汇率波动的影响因素1,外汇市场的结构 :根据交易者不同 ,分为三个交易层次 :客户市场 (零售外汇市场 )同业市场 (批发外汇市场 )中央银行与外汇银行之间的交易市场2,汇率 :Quotation:直接标价法 :US$1=RMB7.3046Indirect quotation:间接标价法 :RMB1=US$0.13693,名义汇率和实际汇率 :Nominal rate: the nominal exchange rate is the rate publicly ann
32、ounced or released by a countrys monetary authorities.Real rate: the real exchange rate(RER) is the rate adjusted by the relative prices between the countries under consideration.绝对购买力平价（ APPP）：4，购买力平价：在长期内适用假设一价定律对所有贸易品都成立，并且每种可贸易品在一篮子中的权重在本国和外国都是相同的。两国的价格指数关系可以表示为：本国的一般价格水平 =外国的一般价格水平相对购买力平价（ PPPP
33、）：交易成本、篮子中可贸易品的不同权重以及其他一些因素都会导致绝对购买力平价定律的失效。因此 PPPP认为，本国与外国的一般价格水平关系中存在一定的背离，即：P:国内价格 P*：国外价格S：汇率实际汇率：ai表示第 i 种可贸易品的权重绝对购买力平价表明，汇率是由本国和外国的价格水平共同决定的。The absolute form of PPP shows that the exchange rate is determined by both home and foreign price indices.是固定的 ， 这意味着实际汇率在一段时间内是固定的（ RER=SP*/P=）Lecture
34、6 foreign exchange and exchange rate2011年 12月 10日22:08分区 MF 的第 10 页 长期汇率波动的影响因素：国内物价水平、贸易壁垒、对国内和国外商品的偏好、生产能力5， interest rate parity 利率平价：短期（ 1+i） =(1/S)(1+i*)Se 即用本币表示的投资于国外资产的收益（要会算）分析人民币对美元跌停连续走跌原因有四: 第一是看淡中国经济，第二是套利活动，第三是在全球金融危机下，美元成为最佳的避险货币，第四是自从欧债危机恶化后，热钱班师回朝自救。有分析归于人行将人民币中间价固定在高位，未有让其跟随国际美元走强，
35、令人民币即期汇价明显较中间价低。另外这次人民币贬值可打破一直以来单边升值的预期。六大央行联手举动只不过是降低市场借美元的机会成本，而不会导致热钱从中国流走，如果市场得到美元之后，将资金转投利息更高的新兴市场，人民币更应该会升值，所以两者没太大关系。其实主要原因如前所述，1. 市场担心经济继续放缓， 2. 资金避险需求仍然强劲， 3. 美国较长期利率在扭曲操作之后下跌。源文档 给定两种资产收益，用一种表示另一种两国通货膨胀率的差异决定了汇率变化率分区 MF 的第 11 页 1，资产负债表是怎样的主要资产跟负债有？2，估算什么时候增加准备金3，一级资本、核心资本，附属资本经风险调整的总资产充足率（
36、知道概念）4，五级分类，不考但要知道，中国特有的5，缺口管理、久期不考1，资产负债表Liabilities 负债：deposits:checkable depositsnon-transaction depositsborrowings:from central bankfrom other banks from financial markets, euro money marketAssets(资产）cashesreserves, vault cash and deposits at central bankinterbank depositssecuritiesloansothers,
37、including physical capital, such as buildings, computers, and equipments, etc.2,什么时候增加存款准备金：当一家银行存款增加的，准备金也等额增加；存款减少时，准备金也同样等额减少。3，资本充足率 Capital Adequacy managementCA=资本 /经风险调整的总资产Core capital 核心资本 ： also labeled as Tier 1 capital, including paid-in capital, reserves, retained earnings and undistrib
38、uted profits.Additional capital 附属资本 ： also labeled as Tier 2 capital, composed of instruments issued by the bank that meet the criteria for inclusion in Tier 2 capital.4,五级分类lecture7 commercial banking2011年 12月 13日10:48分区 MF 的第 12 页 1，货币数量论：交易方程式，恒等式2，流动性偏好理论：流动性陷阱，推导不用看3，弗里德曼现代货币数量论（必考），跟凯恩斯的对比Fis
39、her equation:1， Quantity Theory of MoneyMV=PT, T 是交易量Fishers assumptions:推成货币数量论的假设A1. V, the velocity of money depends on social customs, technical developments and density of population, etc., which are rather stable in the short run. Hence, V is assumed to be stable.By equation of exchange and as
40、sumption A1, M=(1/V)PTWhen money market is in equilibrium, the quantity of money held by agents equals the quantity of demand demand for money, thus, Md=M, and we have, Md=kPYA2. Classical economists assume that wages and prices are flexible. As a result, output equals that under full employment. In
41、 other words, T is also a constant variable in this case. ConclusionsC1. By A1., Fisher converted equation of exchange into quantity theory of money, which holds that nominal income depends on quantity of money only. C2. By A2., changes in price level is subject to changes in quantity of money only.
42、 认为货币名义需求取决于名义收入Views on money demandMoney demand depends on income rather than on the interest rate.A focus on the function of medium of exchange3 motives：2， liquidity preference theory流动性偏好理论transaction motive交易动机precautionary motive预防动机speculative motive 投机动机money demand function：liquidity trap：流
43、动性陷阱 and classical region 古典区域Policy implication:An increase in money supply may lead to a decline in the interest rate which will increase investment and output growth.When a country is in the liquidity trap, monetary policy is ineffective to change interest rates and hence output.Real demand for m
44、oney P： price leveli： interest rate y： real income中间的货币政策才有效，古典区域里是垂直的。The velocity is not constant.lecture8 money demand2011年 12月 13日11:17分区 MF 的第 13 页 When a country is in the liquidity trap, monetary policy is ineffective to change interest rates and hence output.3,Baumol-Tobin Model:Money held f
45、or satisfying transactions motives is not interest-bearing. However,money held for that purpose has opportunity costs too.Transactions components of the demand for money is negatively related to the level of interest rates.4,friedmans theory(会考）Factors affecting money demand：Permanent income Expecte
46、d money return （等于负的通胀）Expected return on bonds（等于债券的 YTM）Expected return on equity（等于股票的红利加资本利得之和除以买入价格）Expected inflation Real money demand functionDistinguishing from Keynesian TheoryFriedman holds that equity and bonds, etc., are substitutes to money, while Keynes lumps all the assets except mon
47、ey into bonds.Friedman also holds that money and commodities are substitutable. The assumption implies that the quantity of money may affect output directly. Effects of interest rate changes on money demandStability of money demand and predictability of velocity of money将资产需求理论运用到货币金融创新导致对货币量的假定变得模糊
48、China：Relatively stable in the long run.Seems insensitive to the interest rates.Income elasticity approaches to unity.5,empirical evidences 了解The velocity is not constant.关注永久性收入利率对货币需求的影响不大货币流通速度相对稳定且可预测单一的货币供给规划分区 MF 的第 14 页 1,中央银行的独立性2,资产负债表3,货币供给的决定因素4,货币乘数（ m1上会推导）1,中央银行独立性 : Independence(fishe
49、r)Instrument independence: the ability of the central bank to set monetary policy instruments.(工具独立）Goal independence: the ability of the central bank to set the goals of monetary policy.(目标独立 )应该独立吗？2,Balance sheet中美 BS的差异： 美持有 90%以上的政府债券。中美公开市场操作的差异：中国通过 bond issue 中央银行票据，美国通过政府债券。3， Controlling the monetary base 对基础货币的控制手段Monetary base = high-powered moneyMB=C+R=持有的政府债券 B+国内信贷 D+FR手段：open market operation公开市场操作：购买、出售shifts from deposits to currencydiscoun
